Arizona (Bradley) at Milwaukee (Nelson) -140 O/U 9
Arizona is a hot mess right now. The D-backs spent a small fortune this past offseason, expecting to be contenders in 2016. Instead, they started off poorly, never got hot and are now thinking about dumping salary before the trading deadline. As late as June 24th, this team was 36-40, looking to make a move up in the standings. They’ve gone 5-19 since, including losses in six of their last seven contests.
Arizona’s mediocre (at best!) bullpen is spent . None of their last seven games has seen the starting pitcher finish the sixth inning. The pen imploded again last night, turning a 4-4 game in the 8th inning into a particularly demoralizing 9-4 defeat. That’s particularly bad news with Avery Bradley on the hill tonight – he’s no innings eater. And their lineup has gone cold, producing only nine runs in their four losses on this current road trip.
The non-descript Brewers are a team that nobody has paid attention to all year; a complete afterthought in the MLB betting world. But Milwaukee is swinging hot bats right now, pounding out five runs or more in more than half of their games since the All Star Break, including each of their last four on this homestand.
Starter Jimmy Nelson has been the Brewers best pitcher this year, allowing two earned runs or less in 15 of his 20 previous starts. Expect another strong showing tonight, especially after a throwing error on a simple grounder to the mound cost him to lose his last start. Manager Craig Counsell: “Defensively, he kind of made a couple of mistakes that hurt him. But I thought his stuff was good." The price here is perfectly reasonable to back Milwaukee in a game they should win with relative ease.