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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

05.21.2018     12:08 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Arizona (Greinke) at Milwaukee (Anderson) +105 O/U 8
Recommendation: Milwaukee

Tough to bank on the Diamondbacks for anything right now, especially after Patrick Corbin set the table perfectly Saturday and then watched his win evaporate in less than five minutes. When ultra- reliable setup man Archie Bradley (loss and blown save in 2 of L3 appearances) joins the dismal offense as a component that fails, you end up with a 1-9 record in your last 10 games. Injuries continue to be the major problem for the Diamondbacks who finally had 3B Jake Lamb return to the lineup last week only to have Steven Souza Jr. reinjure his pectoral muscle that same night after just losing CF A.J. Pollock for 6-8 weeks three days earlier. A 10-day DL decision on Souza is coming today and it seems likely he’s headed there. His slash line of .167/.239/.429 wasn’t helping the offense at all but his defense was outstanding. Currently, tonight’s starting pitcher Zack Greinke is the only player on their 25-man roster that has a batting average over .265 (10 of their 13 position players have an OBP less than .290). Granted, Lamb is going through an extended Spring training period but this offense overall seems tailor made for a pitcher coming off the DL like tonight’s Milwaukee RH starter Chase Anderson. Adding to the problem are Greinke’s home/road splits which show a 1.69 ERA at Chase Field and 7.27 ERA away from home. He was dominant at Chase against Milwaukee six days ago (6 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 1 ER) but Arizona lost 2-1.

My normal practice is to either fade starting pitchers in their first start off the DL or just lay off the game entirely. Circumstance here is different though since Anderson’s 14 days off were to recover from food poisoning and not an arm or other body injury. This is a unique matchup where each starter is throwing against a former employer so they’ll each be motivated to throw well. Major differences between their backing though as Milwaukee’s offense plus the back end trio of Jeremy Jeffress, lights out Josh Hader & Corey Knebel point toward the Brewers +105 at home.

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Milwaukee Brewers Rob Veno

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