Atlanta (Garcia) at San Francisco (Cain) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: San Francisco
To say the betting markets HATE Matt Cain is something of an understatement. How much do they dislike Cain? Well, this is only the second time he’s been favored all year (higher than -110). The first came at home against the lowly Padres with Jhoulys Chacin on the hill. And here, against a Braves team that’s five games under .500 and just lost their best hitter to the DL, Cain still is only in the -115 range, even AFTER a market move in his favor in early betting action on Friday.
In his road starts, the markets have been 100% correct in fading the aging Giants hurler – he’s thrown well only once in five tries, including a particularly ugly outing in St Louis last weekend. But pitching in his comfort zone on a typical cool May evening in San Francisco, Cain offers legitimate bet-on potential, especially in this attractive underdog price range.
The numbers don’t lie. Matt Cain has a 8.28 ERA on the highway this year, but he’s allowed only three runs in his four starts here at AT&T Park; a bet-on hurler in a ballpark where fly balls tend to die on the warning track. That home ERA includes 6.1 innings of one run ball against the potent Dodgers lineup in his last outing.
And make no mistake about it – even after a rough week in Chicago, the Giants are on a legitimate uptick right now. They had won eight of ten prior to running into the Cubs. Meanwhile, Atlanta has cooled off too since Freddy Freeman went on the DL, closing out their homestand with a pair of ugly losses to the Pirates.
Atlanta’s Jamie Garcia is a lefty, and San Francisco has struggled in the aggregate against opposing southpaws this season. But Garcia certainly isn’t mowing opposing hitters down these days. He’s notched only one win in eight previous starts, and both his FIP and his xFIP are considerably higher than his ERA. Current Giants Brandon Belt and Buster Posey both have excellent track records against Garcia; a hurler who hasn’t thrown many gems in recent seasons.