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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

05.09.2016     01:15 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore (Wilson) at Minnesota (Berrios) -115 O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Under


Start number three for Twins highly touted righty Jose Berrios comes against his toughest offensive opponent to date. Baltimore is one of only four teams in MLB to have an OPS of over .800 against RH pitching this season (.811). For Berrios, the matchup on paper appears even more difficult because through his first two starts, his weaknesses have been walks and home runs allowed. However, there are a couple reasons to believe tonight’s start could be a solid one including the fact that he made significant improvement from start #1 to start #2. In his initial outing he was staked to a 3-0 1st inning lead against Cleveland but Berrios gave a pair of runs back in the 3rd and did not record an out in the fifth allowing a walk, single and double. He recorded a game WHIP of 2.00, ERA of 11.25 and threw 23.25 pitches per inning. Those numbers all came down significantly in his next start last Monday at Houston. In 5 1/3 innings, Berrios used his mid-90’s fastball and devastating curve to strikeout eight while allowing just three hits and two runs. His PPI came down to 18.01, WHIP to 1.50 and ERA to 3.38 for his first win. However, a pair of solo HR’s and five walks prevented him from going 6 innings. Baltimore has a ton of power and their plate discipline is pretty good so Berrios will have to be sharp. His counterpart tonight is righty Tyler Wilson who is making his fourth start of the season and is off of a quality start versus the Yankees. Wilson’s 90 MPH average fastball velocity isn’t in the same league as Berrios but his control has been good as has his 30% flyball rate over the last three starts. With windy conditions (14-16 MPH) blowing straight in for tonight’s contest, each pitcher will have help avoiding the long ball. The back end of the game is never really a question for the strong and deep Orioles bullpen and Minnesota has their key late innings arms available tonight as well. Expect this one to be well pitched and weather aided which leads toward a play on the under

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Minnesota Twins Rob Veno




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