Boston (Rodriguez) at Baltimore (Miley)
Recommendation: Boston Team Total OVER 4.5
Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has been an enigma for me over the years so rather than try to project how he will fare tonight against the Baltimore lineup, I decided to focus in on my belief that the Red Sox will hit Wade Miley and the Orioles bullpen which has not been as dominant this season without the services of their closer Zach Britton. Miley has a fraudulent 0.92 ERA at home in four starts despite some horrible peripherals which includes major control problems (14 walks in 19.2 IP). Miley has seen his walks per 9 innings rise significantly this season and his swinging strike rate decline. He was tagged by the Red Sox in his only previous start against them in September of last season as he lasted just 1.1 innings while getting shelled for six runs on eight hits. Miley has only worked deeper than five innings once in his last six starts and that is significant because this Baltimore's seventh straight game and their starters have not worked beyond the seventh inning in five of their last six. Boston’s lineup is collectively batting .275 and averaging 5.29 runs per game against southpaws and have scored at least four runs in eight of their last 10 games. I expect Boston to play five or more runs in this contest.