Boston (Porcello) +125 at New York (Tanaka) O/U 8.5
It’s not often that you will get the Boston Red Sox at this kind of price tag with Rick Porcello on the mound and I feel this is a spot and matchup worthy of taking advantage of this rare opportunity. Porcello has had a fine start to the 2018 season registering a rock solid 2.14 ERA in 6 starts and Boston is 5-1 in those six Porcello starts. He is on a six consecutive quality start streak entering tonight’s game against the Bronx Bombers and current Yankees hitters are collectively batting a paltry .204 average. One of the keys to his success has also been keeping the ball in the yard as Porcello has conceded only 2 home runs in 46.1 innings of work this season. That coincides with his massive jump in groundball rate percentage going from 39.2% last year to 47.6% so far this season along with a drop in his home run to fly ball rate which has gone from 14.7% last season to 4.8% this season. That type of profile in theory should go a long way toward having some success against this Yankees lineup which has feasted on the home run ball for the majority of the season. Masahiro Tanaka will get the starting assignment for the NY Yankees tonight but he’s had some struggles in three previous outings here at Yankee Stadium this season surrendering 11 runs on 16 hits in 18 innings of work pitching at home. Tanaka was crushed by this potent Boston lineup when he saw them back on April 11th at Fenway Park allowing 6 runs on 7 hits and lasting just 5 innings in that game. The New York bullpen has not been the shutdown unit it was expected to be and a lot of their key arms were used in last night’s narrow 3-2 win in the series opener including closer Aroldis Chapman so it’s not the freshest bullpen tonight for the Yankees behind their starter Tanaka. In comparison to Porcello, the home run ball has been more of an issue for Tanaka who has given up 6 home runs in 41 innings pitched this season. New York is on a ridiculous 16-1 tear in their last 17 games and it’s not easy to make a case to bet against them right now—a squad that is red hot and finding ways to win on a nightly basis but the price is right to step in and back the Boston Red Sox at this attractive plus price to cool off the Yanks at least for one night.