Boston (Johnson) -125 at Philadelphia (Hellickson) O/U 10
Despite being 21-42 as a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are 9-4 when Jeremy Hellickson toes the rubber. Hellickson started the season strong (1.80 ERA first five starts) but has been exposed in a big way of late. Over his last eight outings, Hellickson has been pounded to the tune of a 6.43 ERA and 12 home runs allowed. He also sports an alarming 22/17 K-to-BB ratio. He's simply not fooling anyone and is tasked with facing an above average American League lineup tonight.
Boston is priced rather cheaply tonight because unproven rookie Brian Johnson is on the bump. Johnson, a former first round pick, has been serviceable with a 3.44 ERA and 16/4 K-to-BB ratio in three starts. And his Minor League stats (2.61 ERA over 471 IP), suggest he'll be able to get MLB hitters out at a decent rate. My issue with Johnson is that he's not a big swing-and-miss arm and tends to give up a lot of fly balls. That's not ideal tossing in Fenway against the American League but in this spot, even in a hitter friendly park, he has a good chance to post a quality start.
The AL is 74-51 in Interleague play good for over +21 units. Here we get one of the better teams in MLB facing one of the worst with a price that is more than reasonable. The Phillies have virtually no edges in this matchup which makes it easy to support the road side.