Cincinnati (Simon) at Colorado (Butler) -175 O/U 12
This series has featured a combined 49 runs the first three games which averages out to 16.3 runs. That type of offensive production should continue with to very hittable starting pitchers. Cincinnati's Alfredo Simon remains a disaster and has been one of my strongest "bet against" pitching targets this season. He has a brutal 9.60 ERA and an even worse 14.79 ERA in three road starts allowing 25 runs on 30 hits in 14 innings of work -- as well as more walks than strikeouts. Simon was hammered in his one and only previous start at Coors Field in 2014 allowing 7 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings. He's pitched no more than 6 innings in each of his last four starts which is bad news with a beleaguered and brutal Reds bullpen (still last in MLB in ERA) waiting in the wings behind him. On the flip side, Eddie Butler is on the mound for Colorado and he is just as dicey. Butler has a 6.57 ERA in Colorado allowing 9 runs on 12 hits in just 12.1 innings. He too has not gotten past the 6th inning this season and the Rockies bullpen is not necessarily adept at shutting down teams either (25th in ERA). I expect plenty of runs early and late in this game. This is the highest total of the MLB season but there's a reason: play it over with confidence.