Cleveland (Clevinger) at Cincinnati (Finnegan) +105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cincinnati 5-inning
The battle of Ohio continues tonight with a change in venue. The Indians have been hot of late offensively thanks in part to 11 of their last 14 being played at Progressive Field where the team’s OPS is 100 points higher vs. that on the road. On the highway, the Tribe rank 25th out of 30 teams with an OPS of .676. The Indians also struggle when facing lefties which suggests Reds starter Brandon Finnegan should be sitting on a solid effort. Meanwhile, Cincinnati currently sports an OPS almost 100 points higher when playing at home. The Reds basically go from being one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball when playing on the road to above NL average in Great American Ballpark. That increase puts them in the top half of all 30 MLB teams when sorting by team OPS at home. Given the home/ road dichotomy and lefty/righty splits of both squad, I think the home side is worth a look. However, the Reds have arguably the worst bullpen in all of baseball with a horrific 1.66 WHIP. So instead of the full game, we’ll look to back Cincinnati and Finnegan on the 5-inning line at the short plus price.