Cleveland (Tomlin) at Detroit (Liriano) +125 O/U 9.5
A month and a half into the season and only two games separate the Cleveland Indians (20-20) and Detroit Tigers (18-22) in the standings. The separation between the two squads will undoubtedly grow as the season progresses but even when we account for projection and overall gap in talent, I have a hard time buying into Josh Tomlin as a -135 road favorite. Tomlin, who sports an 8.06 ERA and even worse 9.69 FIP, hasn't pitched in 10 days. Perhaps his only redeeming quality is that he tossed five scoreless innings against Detroit back on April 10; a game that featured a very pitcher friendly 38 degrees. Yes, the Tigers are without Miguel Cabrera. But without Cabrera, the Tigers have still managed to produced offensively. In 10 games since he hit the DL, Detroit is 5-5 an has averaged 4.4 runs per game. And unlike Tomlin, Francisco Liriano has been rock solid with three runs or less allowed in all seven starts. He's ripe for a little regression (.226 BABIP) but is far more trustworthy than his counterpart for this evening. This matchup should be line at or near a pick 'em which means there's value on the home dog.