Colorado (Gray) +150 at Boston (Buchholz) O/U 9.5
It’s not easy to step in front of this Boston Red Sox freight train at the moment but this is all about price and value. The Colorado Rockies are looking to avoid a series sweep with their young arm Jonathan Gray who has impressed thus far. He has the potential to be the ace of the pitching staff and while he walks into a tough spot, he's exactly the type of pitcher I want to be betting on before the markets fully realize his ability. Despite Gray being hit hard by St. Louis in his last start, the rest of his best efforts have come on the road which makes sense as he continues to figure out Coors Field. His advanced numbers are ultra-impressive with a xFIP of 2.66 along with a rock solid 50% ground ball rate. And he comes in rested tonight having had six full days off. This is also a bet against Clay Buchholz, especially in this type of price range. He’s been very hittable with a 5.66 ERA at Fenway Park which is right in line with his FIP and xFIP. Buchholz has allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings of work and should be a cure for this ailing Rockies lineup which has scuffled at the plate in recent games. Boston is 6-1 at home over its last seven games but the lone loss came with Buchholz on the mound against Cleveland. After facing an improving David Price and likely the only knuckleballer they'll see all season in Steven Wright, the tide should turn as the Rockies get to smack around a mediocre righty.