Detroit (Pelfrey) at Baltimore (Jimenez) -170 O/U 9.5
I’m still locked into ‘fade Mike Pelfrey’ mode as he faces the powerful Baltimore Orioles. I’ve cashed a handful of winning side and total recommendations against Pelfrey in recent weeks and looking to take a similar path in this game. Pelfrey has been beyond abysmal, allowing 4+ runs in five of his six starts with a 6.23 ERA. He's allowed 26 runs on 44 hits and six homers in 30.1 innings of work with as many walks as strikeouts (15). His problems with being hit hard and allowing the long ball are not likely to be helped by the fact he is pitching against an Orioles lineup that currently leads the American League with 49 home runs. On the flip side, Ubaldo Jimenez has had a solid season although he did recently get pounded by the White Sox in this ballpark for six runs in 4.2 innings of work. He bounced back in his last outing against light hitting Oakland, allowing just two runs in eight innings. Note that Jimenez got smacked around in both of his starts against Detroit last season allowing 13 runs in just 9.1 innings. And even though Detroit's lineup isn't exactly suited to hit right-handers -- see last night's 20 K's vs. Max Scherzer -- Jimenez doesn't have very strong splits and is obviously far more hittable at this point in his career. Weather expected to be in the low 70's with a slight wind out to left. Add it all up and we should see plenty of hits, baserunners, and runs.