Los Angeles (Ryu) at Arizona (Godley) -110 O/U 7.5
Throw out the starting pitchers for just a second. This price is just a tad insane in my mind regardless of the starting pitching matchup considering we have Arizona at 21-8 on the season including a lights out 11-3 home record here at Chase Field up against the LA Dodgers who are reeling having lost seven of their last eight games thanks to a combination of mediocre starting pitching, a declining bullpen and a lineup that simply hasn’t been consistent from game-to-game at the plate. Los Angeles is 12-17 on the season and just 5-9 on the road entering tonight’s game. I can’t even make a valid case that the Dodgers have a starting pitching advantage in this matchup tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu the lefty will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight and he has solid numbers overall but his best work has come at home. In three road starts, Ryu has a 4.11 ERA and hasn’t lasted beyond the 6th inning in any of those outings which brings a struggling and taxed Dodgers bullpen into play. The Dodgers have had six consecutive games with a starter failing to pitch beyond the 6th inning and that includes the day/night doubleheader they played on Saturday against San Francisco. The bullpen has been used a lot lately and they have not been able to get outs as the pen collectively owns a 4.77 ERA this season and even previously dominant closer Kenley Jansen has looked shaky this season. Ryu has had a tough time pitching in this ballpark as he’s given up 9 runs on 13 hits in 7.2 innings of work over his last two starts against Arizona here at Chase Field.
On the other side, Zack Godley takes the mound for Arizona and although he was roughed up last time out, he now returns home where he has a 2.19 ERA in two starts this season and the Diamondbacks won both of those games. Godley has elite pitching metrics with a 3.27 FIP and a 3.35 xFIP along with a 54.9% groundball rate and a solid 12% swinging strike rate. Behind Godley is an Arizona bullpen that unlike LA’s is thriving and leads MLB with a 1.85 ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks lineup is also crushing the baseball scoring 4+ runs in 8 of their last 10 games in which they have gone 8-2 during that span. The bottom line is this is a battle of the top ranked team in profitability this season with Arizona banking +15.38 units of profit for their backers and the dead last 30th ranked team in MLB in profitability in the LA Dodgers who have burned their backers for a loss of -17.52 units this season. In this even money price range, I know which side of that equation I want to be on tonight.