Miami (Koehler) at Minnesota (Santana) -130 O/U 9.5
Tom Koehler and Ervin Santana are firmly in the mediocre starter category and both could be vulnerable here in tonight's matchup. Koehler has a 4.59 road ERA and has not fared well in his career against American League teams on the road including last year when he gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 12.2 innings in a pair of road outings at Toronto and Boston. Minnesota’s lineup isn’t on that level but it’s still worth noting pitching in AL parks with the DH in play has been a sore spot for Koehler. He struggled allowing three runs in just four innings against them back in 2013 and the Twins have perked up offensively quite a bit of late scoring 30 runs in their last six games. On the flip side, Santana has not been very efficient of late for the Twins with a 7.56 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.46 home ERA this season in five starts. In particular, Santana’s last two starts here at Target Field were not very good as he allowed 11 runs on 15 hits in 9.2 innings of work against Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Neither bullpen is very reliable nor overly fresh coming into this game as each starter for in the first two games of the series has failed to pitch seven innings or more. Miami is 17-11 O/U on the road and Minnesota is 19-10 O/U at home providing a 36-21 betting angle. Play it over.