New York (Harvey) at Milwaukee (Garza) -102 O/U 9
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Matt Harvey and the Mets right now. Let’s start with Harvey! You all know the headlines already -- Harvey getting drunk and going on a bender instead of showing up at the ballpark last week after his ex-girlfriend went on a date with the Patriots Julian Edelman, resulting in a team suspension and plenty of New York media hype.
But what hasn’t made as many headlines is the fact that Matt Harvey is not the same pitcher he was two years ago, not even close. Since throwing a gem against the light hitting Braves in his 2017 debut, the Mets are 1-4 in Harvey’s subsequent five trips to the hill. His 5.14 ERA is no aberration, considering his 5.76 FIP. Many of his advanced metric stats are down compared to his career numbers, like strikeouts and swinging strike percentage, while his walk rate has gone up significantly.
So, we’re talking about a guy still being priced like a former ace, coming off a 10-day layoff, enmeshed in an off-field personal crisis Behind him, the Mets are truly riddled with injuries. Big bats David Wright, Travis D’Arnaud, Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda are all on the DL. So is closer Jeurys Familia, leaving a struggling bullpen without their ‘go-to’ guy in the ninth inning. And two more key bats, both of whom have hit well of late – Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera -- are both very questionable today, each dealing with a nagging ailment.
All of this is bad news against Matt Garza and the Brewers lineup. Garza has gotten off to an excellent start, coming off back-to-back gems in his last two outings, striking out ten without walking a single batter in a pair of Milwaukee victories. Milwaukee just pounded out 19 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Red Sox, a hot lineup right now. Although Ryan Braun has been downgraded to doubtful, the Brewers should get the majors leading home run hitter, Marcus Thames, back in the lineup following a routine day off yesterday.