New York (Eovaldi) at Baltimore (Tillman) -125 O/U 8
My clients and I have bet on Nathan Eovaldi in each of his last two starts, cashing a right side winner with the Yanks 6-0 win over Toronto and a wrong side winner when the Yanks beat the Rays 2-1 despite getting only one hit. Eovaldi was nothing short of outstanding in both of those outings, an emerging ace level hurler who is not yet fully respected by the betting marketplace.
Make no mistake about it. Eovaldi is now only tasked with throwing six innings thanks to the dominance of the Betances/Miller/Chapman relief trio in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Since Chapman joined the team following his early suspension, Eovaldi has gone 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA, striking out more batters (20) than hits allowed (17). Between strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and ground balls (54.3%), Eovaldi is a good fit for Camden Yards.
Each of Eovaldi’s last three starts have stayed Under the total with room to spare. He’s 6-4 to the Under this year, and it’s surely worth noting that the Yankees scored at least seven runs in all four Overs. I don’t expect that type of offensive outburst tonight, because this Yankees lineup has completely stopped hitting on the road. They’ve managed to plate only 19 runs through the first seven games of their current road trip. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. For the full season, the Bronx Bombers are dead last in the major leagues in batting average (.223), on-base-percentage (.286) and slugging percentage (.331) on the highway, a consistent track record of offensive futility.
That’s bad news against Chris Tillman. His 7-1 record, 2.92 ERA and 3.78 FIP are all career bests. His 8.5 K/9 ratio and 10.0 swinging strike percentage are also career highs. He held the Yankees to five hits and one run in seven dominant innings against them in his lone previous start against New York this season. In seven previous home starts this year, Tillman has allowed a grand total of nine runs. And the Orioles bullpen behind him ranks #3 in baseball in ERA; a pen that is every bit as elite as the Yankees bullpen they are facing. Expect runs to be rather hard to come by here!