New York (Severino) -115 at Texas (Griffin) O/U 9
Recommendation: New York
New York's Luis Severino came into this season with a lot of fanfare following 2015's 11 starts and 2.89 ERA. It's however been a struggle as Severino has been smacked around for 25 hits in 16.2 IP. Prior to his last start, he made some mechanical adjustments that seemed to work as he produced his first quality start of the season (6 IP, 2 ER) vs. Oakland. It was far from a stellar effort as the Yankees' defense saved a few runs but with his velocity up I see bettor efforts on the horizon. Texas' AJ Griffin has consistently outpitched his peripherals with a 3.58 career ERA and 4.36 FIP. A lot of that has to do with Griffin being an extreme fly ball pitcher but tossing in the friendly confines of Oakland. During his lone full season as a starter in 2013, Griffin allowed 21 home runs in 95.2 IP on the road. The Yankees have struggled with the bats this season but should be primed for some offense after facing five straight left-handed starters. Also note that Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller threw an inning apiece during last night's 3-1 win but combined for only 19 pitches and should be available should the need arise. Not exactly a "buy low" situation on Severino who is now the short road favorite but the price is cheap enough to warrant a play.