Oakland (Gray) at Cleveland (Bauer) -160 O/U 9
Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has always been a guy that at times can't get out of his own way. But there's no denying that he's got above average MLB stuff. Bauer has been on the unlucky side of things this season with a .328 BABIP and 65% LOB rate. He's also allowed home runs on over 22% of his fly balls. Despite that, his strikeout rate is north of 10 and his walk rate is right on par with his career average. All of this of course plays out in Bauer's sky high ERA (6.30) and above average xFIP (3.42). It’s tough to label and Cleveland pitcher as “bet on” due to the Indians’ inflated status in the betting markets but Bauer has better days on the horizon. After throwing a ton of innings in college and back-to-back 200+ innings his second and third seasons for the A's, I think Sonny Gray benefited from having an abbreviated 2016 (117 IP). He started the season on the DL but looks to be at full strength with 19 strikeouts and 31 swinging strikes in his last two starts. I really see both starters as being a bit undervalued at this point -- and both with the capabilities to shut down the opposing team's offense. Total hovering around 8.5/9. Worth it in my opinion to seek out that key 9 and play under.