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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Oakland A's at New York Yankees

04.21.2016     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Hill) at New York (Severino) -126 O/U 8 
Recommendation: New York


The A’s have a better early season record than the Yankees do.  That being said, moving forward, I see much more upside with New York’s roster than with Oakland’s.  And I have no hesitation betting against A’s starter Rich Hill.  Hill will be facing a lineup built to hammer opposing left handers, bad news in a situation where the Bronx Bombers are looking to avoid the three game sweep at home.

When Rich Hill is on, like he was once in three starts this year (against the Mariners), he’s a decent starter.  But Hill’s consistency has been a problem, as has his health; a guy who has only thrown 187 big league innings since throwing 195 innings back in 2007.  Four other teams have given up on him since the start of the 2013 season.  Behind Hill, the A’s spotty bullpen has already been overused.  And the A’s anemic lineup is averaging only three runs per game, producing more than five runs only once in 15 games – if their pitching isn’t elite, they’ll have a hard time winning.

The Yankees bullpen is as good as it gets – when they have the lead after six innings, they’re tough to beat.  And starter Luis Severino is an undervalued commodity right now after his first two starts were both ugly, to the tune of a .383 batting average against and a 5.71 ERA.  The advanced metric numbers show clearly how unlucky he has been in those first two outings with a .436 BABIP.  His xFIP is at 2.72, less than half his ERA.  Those are bet-on numbers in this price range and this spot!

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Tags: MLB Oakland A's New York Yankees Teddy Covers




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