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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

06.08.2017     08:49 AM     Kyle Hunter     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Kyle Hunter

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Lively) at Atlanta (Dickey) -120 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over

When FanGraphs published Philadelphia's "Top 33" prospects prior to the season, Ben Lively was listed under "other prospects of note." Lively has had some success at the Minor League level but the consensus is that he'll have trouble against MLB hitters. In his debut, he allowed only 1 run over 7 innings against San Francisco. He didn't fan a single batter however and had only five swinging strikes. All signs point towards Lively's ceiling being that of a lower-tier NL starter. RA Dickey's long career lookings to be coming to an end. Despite the switch back to the National League, Dickey's K rate is down over 2 per 9 innings (4.41) while his walk rate is a career-worst 4.68. And those numbers get even worse when you look at recent outings (L4 starts, 22.2 IP, 31 hits, 16 BBs, 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA). The Braves won six of his 11 starts but needed to score 4, 7, 9, 7, 6, and 6 runs to do so. And both bullpens grade out as below average, especially Philadelphia's that chose to use a position player in last night's 14-1 loss. The MLB betting markets have undergone a very noticeable transformation when it comes to totals. Games are lined a half and even as much as a full run higher than where they were the first month of the season. And if they haven't been adjusted to the over, bettors are quick to pound it that way. Atlanta a great example of this with 9/9.5 now the baseline total at SunTrust Park. But while adjustments have been made and the value less than it was, there is still reason to look at some of these games over, including tonight's game with two suspect starters. Note that Atlanta has played six games lined 9.5 or higher. Five of those contests went over the total. And Philadelphia, under the same parameters, is 5-0 O/U.

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves Andrew Lange




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