Philadelphia (Morgan) at Minnesota (Gibson) -165 O/U 9
To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 14-1-1 to the Over in their last 16 ballgames. My clients and I have been cashing betting the Twins Over repeatedly during that span, and tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring slugfest. Here’s why: In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the just concluded NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next.
Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now!
When an MLB team wins 14 out of 16 games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 14-1-1 to the Over in a 16 game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay much attention to totals streaks, because they don’t necessarily stand out. The bookmakers aren’t particularly concerned either. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now.
Twins starter Kyle Gibson got roughed up in April before an extended stint on the DL, and he’s been roughed up in two starts since coming off the DL, allowing eight earned runs in 12 innings of work. Gibson’s advanced metrics stats are terrible, issuing nearly as many walks as strikeouts on the season. The Twins bullpen behind him has been a disaster area all year, allowing another four runs last night in six more innings of work.
The Phillies pitching has been so bad that despite scoring three runs or less nine times in their last 13 ballgames they’re still trending Over the total during that span (9-4 to the Over). Starter Adam Morgan is barely holding on to his spot in the rotation while showing extremely vulnerability to the home run ball, a bottom tier pitcher on a bottom tier team. And the Phillies exhausted bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 9th, primed to pour gas on any late inning fires should we need it!