Philadelphia (Hellickson) at St. Louis (Wainwright) -170 O/U 7.5
Not sold on Jeremy Hellickson who did have a good April posting a 1.19 WHIP and a pair of quality starts. The hesitancy toward backing him is that we’ve seen enough of his career to know exactly what he brings to the table and his early 2016 results are a bit better than what can be expected of him. That being said, even less inclined to back Adam Wainwright who has been abysmal thus far and looks to be in the mold of older veteran starter whose best days are behind him and now needs to re-invent himself. His 7.16 ERA through five starts isn’t a skewed number; he has been hit in every outing and has not recorded a game ERA lower than 4.50. Four of his five game WHIP results have been 1.50 or higher and he’s allowed 71 total bases including walks in only 27.2 innings. The St. Louis offense which currently ranks among the best in MLB has certainly come to the aid of Wainwright more often than not this season scoring eight or more runs in three of his five starts. Their MLB leading .845 OPS against RH pitching gives them a strong likelihood of supporting Wainwright with a lot of runs again here tonight. St. Louis’ 30 home runs off righties also ranks tops in the league and their 121 runs scored are second. Of the 25 hits Hellickson has given up this season, 15 have been either doubles or dingers which makes this a good matchup for the Cards bats. Philadelphia’s struggling offense may like what they see here too facing Wainwright who has a .326 BAA vs. LH hitters and .328 BAA vs. RH hitters. There is no fatigue factor for either bullpen tonight but by the time they get involved, this game could already be casged. Plenty of indicators suggesting this game will exceed 7.5 runs and maybe even land in double-digits.