Philadelphia (Morgan) +150 at St. Louis (Leake) O/U 7.5
Every year, the betting markets swing and miss on a handful of teams. Look back to last year and see how badly the markets reacted to Minnesota’s lucky first half run, when they went 48-34 into the All-Star Break following a 1-6 start, the single most profitable team in baseball to support during that span.
2016 is no exception. The Philadelphia Phillies can’t hit worth a lick. Their bullpen is supposed to stink (although it hasn’t). They’ve been bottom feeders in every recent season. And they’ve been outscored by 22 runs through their first 27 games; a comparable run differential with the last place Padres or the last place Twins.
And yet the Phillies are winning, just 2.5 games out of first place in the competitive NL East. These quotes tell the story of a team that is worth backing right now, before the betting markets catch up Slugger Ryan Howard: "I'm having a blast. There's a different energy and all that began in spring training." Catcher Cameron Rupp: “We're having fun out there and everything is coming together.”
Since their 0-4 start, the Phillies are 16-7. On their last two road trips, they’ve gone 6-2, cashing +160, +125, +185, +175, +125 and +120 tickets for their backers. Meanwhile, the struggling Cardinals have gone ice cold, losing five of their last six overall, while held to one run or less in each of their last three defeats. Starter Mike Leake has allowed at least four runs in each of his five outings, and the Cards are just 1-4 in those games. He’s an easy fade in this price range