Pittsburgh (Cole) at Arizona (Greinke) -125 O/U 8.5
It’s not hard to make a case for betting the over at Chase Field, especially when the roof is open, like it will be tonight when the Dbacks take on the Pirates. Arizona has only cashed six Under bets in their first 19 home games. They’ve scored four runs or more in 14 of those 19 home games, ranked #4 in the NL in runs scored, with all seven of their every day regulars enjoying an on base percentage of .308 or higher.
Coming off a seven run outburst against the Tigers last night, the D-backs are primed to swing hot bats again tonight. Infielder Nick Ahmed: “It's good to kind of get the bats going again and get some guys early feeling good at the plate. We talk about linking our at-bats together and having team at-bats up and down the lineup and not having one guy try to do it all. When we are going good, it is everybody contributing up and down the lineup.”
The Pirates lineup is anything but hot, held to six runs in their just concluded three game set in LA against the Dodgers. But we’ve seen a legitimate lineup transformation when teams leave the dead air of the West Coast ballparks and come to Chase Field, where the ball really carries when the roof is open. All of a sudden, cold lineups heat up in a hurry.
Zack Greinke continues to carry the elite ace tag, yet the D-backs are 5-2 to the Over in his seven previous starts this season. Both Unders came on the highway; one at San Diego where Overs go to die, the other in Colorado when the total was 11. All four previous home games that he’s pitched this season have produced eleven runs or more. Arizona’s bullpen behind him is mediocre on a good day; lit up three times in their last four ballgames.
The Pirates bullpen is a long way from the elite status they’ve enjoyed in recent seasons, a big part of the reason why this squad has gotten off to such a disappointing start. And while starter Gerrit Cole is in solid current form, he’s got some pretty sharp splits developing – just like last year – with a road ERA 2.5 runs higher than his ERA at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. We won’t need an offensive explosion to cash this over bet...but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get one!