Pittsburgh (Taillon) -107 at New York (Lugo) O/U 7.5
Going to buck a couple of recent negative trends that apply here and look to take advantage of a pair of pitching edges. The recent ice cold Pittsburgh offense showed up again yesterday as they were shutout by a quartet of Arizona pitchers. That marked the sixth straight game in which the Pirates have been held to three runs or less and in five of those they’ve scored two or less. Over those half dozen games, Pittsburgh has produced just 44 total bases on 36 hits while striking out 57 times. That is a stark contrast to the hot offense of the Mets which over their last seven games has exploded for 75 hits and 124 total bases which are each MLB highs over that time frame. A four game portion of that can be attributed to playing in Coors field but the fact that New York accumulated 27 hits and 46 total bases against the top three Dodger left handed starters and their Top 5 bullpen is impressive. Just not sold that the hot bats continue tonight against Pirates RH Jameson Taillon since this current tear is a total contradiction to what the Mets offense has been overall this season (25th in OPS). Believe that Taillon who has been superb this month posting a 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and nearly 5-1 (24-5) K-BB ratio. The 26-year-old ace of Pittsburgh’s staff has allowed just six HR’s and 15 BBs in his last 57 IP and feel he can keep the ball in the park and avoid free passes tonight in pitcher friendly Citi Field. Also like the bullpen edge Pittsburgh has in this spot with the Mets already sub-par relief corps stretched this weekend in the LA series. The Pirates meanwhile have a rested pen which makes them a late innings favorite should this be a tie or 1 run lead for them after six innings. Small price tag here to back Taillon and fade Mets RH starter Seth Lugo who has been slammed in his last two outings is worth a look.