San Diego (Chacin) at Arizona (Greinke) -160 O/U 9
Expecting a reversal of fortunes for San Diego’s Jhoulys Chacin who just five days beat Arizona 1-0 at home. Chacin attributes his success in that contest to using the entirety of his pitching repertoire but examination of his first four starts this season indicates it may be due more to Petco Park. Petco has been renovated to try to improve offense but it’s still favorable to pitchers and in his pair of home starts, Chacin has yet to allow an earned run. He’s thrown an extremely impressive 14.1 innings of shutout ball against the strong offenses of Arizona and the Los Angeles Dodgers. His WHIP in those two games is 0.55, K:BB ratio is 5-1 and his pitches per inning average is an outstanding 13.36. However, Chacin’s pair of road starts have been the polar opposite as he’s exited the mound after only 5 full and 3.1 innings pitched. Those contests were at Atlanta and at LA who combined to get 26 baserunners in those 8.1 (3.1 per inning).
Those numbers spell disaster in Chase Field as Diamondbacks own MLB’s top ranked home offense by a runaway margin. In their 10 home games this season, Arizona is first in runs scored (74), BA .316, OBP .376 , SLG .534 and OPS .910 which is 115 percentage points higher than Tampa Bay’s no. 2 mark of .795. Add in the fact that Arizona is also in the top 3 in all of those same categories against right-handed pitching and it’s easy to see the difficulties Chacin figures to have tonight.
San Diego’s miniscule offensive capabilities have really come to light over their past 12 games where they have recorded a game OBP of .265 or less nine times. Overall they are hitting just .213 on the season with a .281 OBP. Facing Zack Greinke was problematic for them last week and some of the hitter friendly venue tonight may be erased by Greinke’s home improvement thus far. It is obviously early but the veteran has performed far better in his two starts here as evidence by the 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP he has posted. A continuation of that statistical ascension seems likely for Greinke against this Padres offense.
Normally I’d vie for the run line option in a game with a steep price tag like this one but Arizona’s bullpen is still not a trustworthy unit and there is the possibility that they could be shy on quality depth if Archie Bradley is moved from bullpen to rotation due to starter Shelby Miller’s injury. Expect Arizona behind Greinke to win easily tonight.