St. Louis (Weaver) at Cincinnati (Harvey) +120 O/U 9.5
The Cardinals are 7-0 against the Reds so far this season, a streak primed to end tonight with an underdog payout for Cincinnati bettors. The Cardinals continue to play mediocre baseball into June, just 7-8 in their last 15 ballgames. They’ve gone 3-6 in Luke Weaver’s last nine starts. It’s surely worth noting that Weaver has gotten into the sixth inning only twice during that entire span.
It’s also worth noting that even in those two ‘gems’ games from Weaver, the Cardinals lost both times. Plus, Weaver has a fairly sharp home/road dichotomy, with opponents hitting .276 against him on the highway compared to .213 at home, and his career numbers against this Cincinnati lineup are mediocre at best.
Weaver’s inability to eat up innings is a major factor here considering the continued struggles of the St Louis bullpen behind him. Over the last week, this bullpen has been lit up on three separate occasions with a pair of blown saves and a 6.56 ERA overall. In fact, it’s Cincinnati with the vastly superior bullpen numbers both for the full season and of late (five blown saves compared to ten for St Louis and an ERA that is a half run lower).
Cinci is coming off a momentum building extra inning win over Colorado. Their lineup is clicking, pounding out ten or more hits in each of their last four ballgames. Starter Matt Harvey has enjoyed plenty of success against this Cardinals lineup, allowing only one run in ten innings of work against them. Harvey’s only start with the Reds at the Great American Ballpark was a gem against the Pirates and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if we see another strong showing from Harvey tonight. Live dog here!