St. Louis (Wainwright) -128 at San Diego (Cashner) O/U 7
Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball. The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean.
And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated. That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #22 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night – eight runs allowed in three innings of work. That’s particularly bad news with St Louis coming to town – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 38 runs in their first six road games.
The Padres have now gone over the total in five straight games on this homestand. And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight as well against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright just hasn’t been the same guy since returning from his torn Achilles last October; morphing from true ace into bottom tier hurler.
The numbers don’t lie. Wainwright’s strikeout rate is at half of his career average, his walk rate is double his career average. His ground ball rate and swinging strike rates are both way down. He’s been hit hard by three light hitting lineups (Pirates, Braves and Reds) in his first three starts. And this quote certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence moving forward either: "I'm so far from where I can be and where I want to be. It's very, very frustrating. I'm so upset about the way the ball is coming out right now. Fact of the matter is, I'm struggling right now. There's no other way to put it."