Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) at Arizona (Bradley) -110 O/U 8.5
Jake Odorizzi has been consistent all season for the Tampa Bay Rays allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and four runs in his last 18 innings with a 3-0 mark to the under. Arizona has had a tough time scoring runs most of the season and might struggle here facing a quality arm like Odorizzi for the first time. Archie Bradley will get his third start for Arizona since getting recalled from Triple-A. The difference in him since being called back up has been very noticeable. Against the Padres at home on May 29, he pitched into the eighth inning and allowed three earned runs, only one walk and struck out nine to pick up his fourth career victory. The competition got tougher after that when Bradley faced the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in his last start. He did not allow a run nor a base runner to reach third base until the 6th inning. He surrendered only four hits, one walk and struck out 10 which was a career-best mark. That’s back-to-back quality starts in as many outings for Bradley as opposing hitters are batting just .244 against him. The most noticeable adjustment by Bradley from last season is that he has removed the slider from his repertoire and changed his curveball into a knuckle-curve hybrid. Bradley’s velocity is also up from last season, with his fastball having hit 96.6 MPH on the radar gun. Last year, his fastball maxed out at 94.3 MPH. He has also displayed better control with four walks and 19 strikeouts in his last two starts. All of it points to Bradley being a ‘bet on’ pitcher right now and one that I think should be able to hold the Rays in check after Tampa was shutout by Zack Greinke last night. I expect this game to be lower scoring with solid value on the under.