NY Yankees (Pettitte) at NY Mets (Niese)
Recommendation: Mets +120 1st 5 innings
We’re swinging a big bat the past week going 8-1 on our MLB plays and posting over +12 units of profit following our Interleague Game of the Year winner as the Indians pounded the Reds 8-1. June has produced solid profits and we’ll take a shot tonight in the Subway Series at Citi Field. The Mets (38-32) play with redemption following a series sweep to the Yankees June 10th. The Yankees (41-27) lead the Majors with 105 home runs, but the Bronx Bombers won’t have their favorable hitter’s park this series. Yankee Stadium is tied for the MLB lead yielding 2.88 HR per game, while Citi Field is no. 25 at 1.57 HR per game.
But note that the Yankees continue to struggle with men in scoring position; ranking among the worst in the Majors with a .218 batting average with RISP. Mets starter Jon Niese did not allow an earned run over seven innings against the Yankees June 10th, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a .196 batting average at Citi Field with 42 Ks in 37 innings. Niese’s skills are very solid and the lefty has lowered his ERA a full run over the past month (3.82). His xERA is even better and his groundball profile serves him well. Niese is still undervalued and can make another quality start tonight after pitching 20 innings his last three starts allowing four earned runs with a 23-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note Mets starting pitchers have a 2.98 ERA at home their last 12 starts while pitching at least six innings each outing.
Andy Pettitte (2.77 ERA) has pitched well for the Yankees and the 40-year old left-hander has been even better his last three starts (1.77 ERA). However, he’s only made two road starts this season with a 4.50 ERA. Facing Pettitte a second time after scoring three runs in six innings off him June 10th is favorable, and note the Mets have hit well recently against three other solid left-handers; scoring at least 3 runs against Cliff Lee, David Price and Brian Matusz.
The Mets bullpen is a mess with MLB’s worst ERA (5.32) while the Yankees bullpen is among the league’s best (2.73). The starting pitching match-up along with motivation is favorable for the Mets, and add in the solid plus price and the first 5-innings becomes a worthy wager on the home team.
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