Texas (Harrison) -150 at Seattle (Noesi) O/U 7
Recommendation: Over
We’ve seen a deluge of Under money drive this total down from an opener of 8 all the way to 7. I do not agree with the line move one iota, leaving us with some real value on the Over in Seattle this evening.
The Mariners have a well-deserved reputation as a light hitting team, but they’ve been tearing the cover off the ball offensively for nearly a week. Seattle has pounded out 31 runs in their last five ballgames, scoring at least four in every contest. Don’t expect that to change dramatically tonight against struggling Rangers starter Matt Harrison. Harrison’s got a 7.48 ERA in four previous starts this month and only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.
Texas got shut down by King Felix last night, ending a stretch of six consecutive games with at least four runs scored. But the Rangers battered Mariners starter Hector Noesi for seven runs in just three innings of work when they faced him last month. Noesi isn’t notching strikeouts in bunches, and he’s shown vulnerability to the home run ball, a bad combination against a Rangers lineup that leads the majors in runs scored, batting average and OPS so far this season. Seattle’s bullpen behind Noesi is mediocre at best, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them.
