NY Mets (Pelfrey) at LA Dodgers (Lilly) -125 O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Over

The Mets were no-hit for five innings yesterday and then pounded out five runs in the final four frames. Manager Terry Collins: “That’s the only way we’ve played. Guys have just stepped up.” New York has now scored 59 runs in its last six road games. They’ve been hammering lefties like LA’s Ted Lilly; hitting .331 against southpaws in their last ten games and .32 points higher against opposing lefties than opposing righties on the highway for the season.

Meanwhile, Lilly had his start pushed back a day because of an aching elbow. Based on this quote, don’t expect that extra day’s rest to be a difference maker here. Lilly: “It’s been off and on for a while, but I don’t think (my elbow is) necessarily why I haven’t been pitching well. Some of it is location. It all goes together because you don’t have the normal feel of your pitches.” Lilly has allowed exactly six runs in each of his last three starts, struggling even against light hitting foes like the Twins and Astros.

It’s no easier to trust Mike Pelfrey than it is to trust Lilly. Pelfrey has one of the sharpest road/home dichotomies in baseball. For the season he’s at 2.96 in the friendly confines of Citi Field, but his road ERA has ballooned to 6.75. His career splits stand at 3.53 at home vs. 5.54 on the highway over 133 career starts since 2006. The Mets bullpen behind him isn’t fresh – their starters have combined for only three outs past the sixth inning over the course of the last week. And after facing tough matchups against Chris Capuano, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver in their last three ballgames, this is a step down in class for an LA lineup poised for a breakout effort today.