St Louis (McClellan) -150 at Houston (Figueroa) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St. Louis
Nelson Figueroa’s numbers to start the season are not an aberration. He’s been lit up three times in four outings, giving up 31 hits and 24 runs in just 20 innings of work. Figueroa’s 12-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t inspire confidence. His only good start all year came against a Padres lineup that can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag.
This is nothing new or different for the 36 year old righty. Figueroa has crapped out everywhere he’s been at the big league level, failing to stick with Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, New York or even here in Houston. He’s merely keeping the seat warm for heralded hurler Jordan Lyles who is still working of things in Triple-A. Behind their second-tier starter, the Astros bullpen is anything but reliable, with four losses and five blown saves already. And don’t forget that no team has made more errors (25) this season.
Kyle McClellan is on the other end of the “value” spectrum right now. The latest Dave Duncan Reclamation Project has been nothing short of outstanding in his first four big league starts after 202 relief appearances over the previous three seasons. McClellan hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any game while lasting at least six innings each time, and the Cardinals have won all four games that he’s taken the mound. McClellan is an undervalued commodity on a hot team (11-5 since their 2-6 start), worthy of support in this modest price range.