Washington (Gonzalez) -150 at NY Mets (McHugh) O/U 7
Recommendation: Washington
The modest favorite’s price here is very reasonable considering the starting pitching matchup and the current forms of these two ball clubs. The Mets are falling apart. They just got swept at home by the Braves over the weekend; outscored 17-5. Since the All-Star break, in all games NOT against the worst team in baseball (Houston), New York is a woeful 2-17 here at Citi Field, a legitimate home field disadvantage! They’ve been dominated by the Nationals all year, losing all five previous series against Washington while going 3-11 in the last 14 meetings. Don’t expect that track record to improve today!
The Nationals are trending in the opposite direction, 9-3 in their last dozen games. Their lineup has been on fire for weeks, pounding out seven runs or more nine times during that dozen game span. The Mets are just 19-31 against opposing southpaw starters like Gio Gonzalez this year, and Gonzalez is in stellar current form, throwing 16 innings of shutout ball in his last two trips to the hill. He’s held the Mets to a single run or less in three of his four previous career starts against them, and if this game comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Nationals enjoy a clear edge in that department as well.
