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MLB Handicapping: League-wide home run rate continues to climb

06.13.2017     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly

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Look across the MLB slate for today. What do you notice? For starters, only one game -- in San Francisco -- is lined below 8. Three games are lined 10 or higher and Colorado and Arizona are on the road. Marcus Stroman is hitting opposite field bombs. Justin Smoak is closing in on his career high in dingers...through 62 games. Last night, Nick Markakis, who has previously hit one home run, took Stephen Strasburg deep to the opposite field. Seriously, what the hell is going on? We know what's going on: MLB did something to the baseball and it's resulted in an incredible rise in home run rate. Surprisingly, "overs" have only hit at around 52.5% -- but that number is obviously skewed some as a majority of totals over the last month plus have been bet and thus closed higher. One would think we're approaching a tipping point but the weather is only going to get warmer meaning balls will be flying even further over the next three months.


Baseball is on its 15th consecutive regular-season month with a higher home-run rate on contact than the previous season’s equivalent month. Homers this April were up 12% over last April, which were up 18% over the previous April. Homers this May were up 12% over last May. Homers so far in June are up 10% over last June. Where we are now, 5.12% of fair batted balls in June have been homers. It’s the first time baseball’s broken the 5% threshold.



Tags: MLB




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