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World Series Handicapping: Kansas City Royals short series favorites over San Francisco Giants

10.20.2014     10:28 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The World Series gets underway Tuesday night with the Kansas City Royals playing host to the San Francisco Giants. Madison Bumgarner and the Giants are short road favorites for Game 1. The Royals however are -115/-120 series favorites. The series has a 2-3-2 format.

Projected rotations 
San Francisco 
Game 1 - Bumgarner 
Game 2 - Peavy 
Game 3 - Hudson 
Game 4 - Vogelsong

Kansas City 
Game 1 - Shields 
Game 2 - Ventura 
Game 3 - TBA 
Game 4 - TBA

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Kansas City Royals



Football Betting Podcast 10-20-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Paul Stone and Teddy Covers

10.20.2014     09:16 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Paul Stone and Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his famed NFL Opening Line Report while Paul and host Andrew Lange recapped college football Week 8.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Paul Stone - College Football Week 8 Recap

Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report Week 8

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football NFL Paul Stone Teddy Covers



New Jersey says it's taking bets on NFL Week 8

10.20.2014     07:16 AM     Printer Friendly

UPDATE

No fear, New Jersey. No fear.


“We’re going to start taking bets on the 26th and if someone tries to stop us they’re going to need an order from the judge,” said Drazin.






Delusions of Grandeur: New Jersey says it's a week away from taking bets on the NFL

10.17.2014     09:30 AM     View Original Blog
If Vegas were smart, they'd take action on this and price the "no" at -2000.


"We hope that Gov. Christie will sign the bill in time for us to start taking bets Oct. 26," Dennis Drazin, an attorney representing the racetrack, told ESPN.com.

"I believe the leagues' end game is property rights," Lesniak said. "They are going to say that, 'These are our games and by taking bets on them you are violating our property rights.' That would be the basis for them to get to the table and cut a deal."






Tags: NFL



College Basketball Handicapping: Coaching and conference changes

10.20.2014     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college basketball season officially starts November 14. Here's a good article on all of the coaching changes. You might also want to familiarize yourself with the conference changes which always make for great gaffes on the podcast.

Tags: College Basketball



NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus plays now 20-16 YTD

10.20.2014     06:56 AM     Printer Friendly

UPDATE

A winning week for the SuperContest's top five NFL consensus plays. The 3-2 ATS marked upped the YTD total to 20-16 ATS.

Weekly Results 
Week 7: 3-2 
Week 6: 2-3 
Week 5: 2-3 
Week 4: 3-2 
Week 3: 5-1 
Week 2: 3-2  
Week 1: 2-3 
Totals: 20-16 YTD




NFL Gambling: Chiefs and Colts top picks for SuperContest Week 7

10.19.2014     06:53 AM     View Original Blog
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 7 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Kansas City +5.5 at San Diego 
2. Indianapolis -3 vs. Cincinnati 
3. NY Giants +6.5 at Dallas 
4. Seattle -6.5 vs. St. Louis 
5. Baltimore -6.5 vs. Atlanta

Least picked Sunday side: St. Louis +6.5




Tags: NFL



NFL Gambling: Chiefs and Colts top picks for SuperContest Week 7

10.19.2014     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 7 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Kansas City +5.5 at San Diego 
2. Indianapolis -3 vs. Cincinnati 
3. NY Giants +6.5 at Dallas 
4. Seattle -6.5 vs. St. Louis 
5. Baltimore -6.5 vs. Atlanta

Least picked Sunday side: St. Louis +6.5

Tags: NFL



College Football Handicapping: 2nd half Kick Off List - Week 8

10.18.2014     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly

To help you with your wagers today, below is a list of teams that receive the kick to start the second half.

2014 College Football 2nd Half Kick Off List - Week 8
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd Half Kick
313
Marshall
Florida International
Florida International
315
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Syracuse
317
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois
319
Akron
Ohio
Akron
321
Purdue
Minnesota
Minnesota
323
Iowa
Maryland
Iowa
325
Baylor
West Virginia
Baylor
327
Virginia
Duke
Duke
329
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
331
NC State
Louisville
NC State
333
Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan
335
Western Michigan
Bowling Green
Western Michigan
337
Ball State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan
339
Georgia
Arkansas
Georgia
341
San Jose State
Wyoming
San Jose State
343
New Mexico
Air Force
Air Force
345
South Florida
Tulsa
South Florida
347
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech
349
Southern Miss
North Texas
Southern Miss
351
Cincinnati
SMU
SMU
353
Appalachian State
Troy
Appalachian State
355
Nevada
BYU
 
357
Army
Kent State
Army
359
Stanford
Arizona State
 
361
Washington
Oregon
Washington
363
UCLA
California
UCLA
365
UAB
Middle Tennessee State
UAB
367
Rutgers
Ohio State
Ohio State
369
Texas A&M
Alabama
Texas A&M
371
Colorado
USC
Colorado
373
Michigan State
Indiana
Michigan St
375
Clemson
Boston College
Clemson
377
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Kansas State
379
New Mexico State
Idaho
New Mexico State
381
Georgia State
South Alabama
Georgia State
383
Western Kentucky
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic
385
Utah State
Colorado State
Utah State
387
Tennessee
Mississippi
Tennessee
389
Iowa State
Texas
Texas
391
Missouri
Florida
Florida
393
Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas Tech
395
Oklahoma State
TCU
TCU
397
Tulane
Central Florida
Tulane
399
Nebraska
Northwestern
Northwestern
401
Kentucky
LSU
Kentucky
403
Notre Dame
Florida State
Florida State
405
Hawaii
San Diego State
 


Tags: College Football



Sportsmemo's College Football In-Game Betting Discussion - Week 8

10.18.2014     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Don't miss Sportsmemo's Posting Forum College Football Week 8 in-game discussion. The Sportsmemo Handicappers and posting forum members share their thoughts, opinions, and second half wagers throughout the day. If you're not a forum member, it's free to sign up! All you need is a username and password. Come be a part of the WINNING action!

Tags: College Football



College Football Gambling Alert: Florida State reopens -10 vs. Notre Dame

10.17.2014     02:17 PM     Printer Friendly

Despite no official work on Jameis Winston's status, various offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks have hung a pointspread (no total) on Saturday's Notre Dame vs. Florida State game. Below is CRIS's line history since reopening the game earlier this afternoon. Note that Sunday night's opener was FSU -12.5.

copy_fsu_nd.JPG

 

Tags: College Football Notre Dame Fighting Irish Florida State Seminoles ACC



NFL Betting Podcast 10-17-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

10.17.2014     11:31 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_nfl_podcast_bar.jpg

Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 7 Every Game on the Board coverage. Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning Andrew Lange



Delusions of Grandeur: New Jersey says it's a week away from taking bets on the NFL

10.17.2014     09:30 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If Vegas were smart, they'd take action on this and price the "no" at -2000.


"We hope that Gov. Christie will sign the bill in time for us to start taking bets Oct. 26," Dennis Drazin, an attorney representing the racetrack, told ESPN.com.

"I believe the leagues' end game is property rights," Lesniak said. "They are going to say that, 'These are our games and by taking bets on them you are violating our property rights.' That would be the basis for them to get to the table and cut a deal."



Tags: NFL



NFL Handicapping: Chicago Bears' offensive line expected to be at full strength vs. Miami

10.17.2014     09:22 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami at Chicago -3 O/U 48

Positive sign for the Chicago Bears with their offensive line's original starting five expected to play this weekend vs. Miami. The unit hasn't been together since Week 1. The Bears rank 18th in the league in yards per carry (4.2) and 22nd in sacks allowed per game (2.3).

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Miami Dolphins



College Football Betting Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles

10.17.2014     09:04 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame at Florida State 
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC 
CRIS Opener:
Florida State -12.5 
CRIS Current: No Line 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida State -12.5 
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Notre Dame

We have no line posted as of yet for Saturday’s showdown between Notre Dame and Florida State due to the status of Jameis Winston. Winston, who has already been in his share of off the field distractions, is now being investigating whether he accepted payment for signing memorabilia. Winston claims he wasn’t paid. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher maintains that he believes his quarterback. Either way, Winston is “expected” to play but no confirmation has been made as of this writing.

Notre Dame has not had many problems moving the football this season, with the Irish averaging 444.3 yards per game. Everett Golson is completing 62.5% of his passes, for 1,683 yards and 16 TDs to just 4 INTs. Golson is also second on the team in rushing with four scores. Wide receiver Will Fuller has stepped up big time in the receiving corps with 35 receptions, for 504 yards and 7 TDs. The Notre Dame rushing attack is by no means dominating but they still have averaged 163.8 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry.

Florida State’s defense is still good but not nearly as dominant as last year’s championship team. Eliminate games against The Citadel and offensively inept Wake Forest and the Seminoles have allowed 425 ypg and 5.8 ypp. The big defensive plays have been lacking as well with only 8 sacks and 11 forced turnovers in their first 6 games. I think Notre Dame’s offense is good enough to have success moving the football.

Assuming Winston plays, the offense for the Seminoles under his watch this season has been highly productive in the passing game with over 300 passing ypg. However, their running game has suffered a bit as the Seminoles are only averaging 138.5 ypg. Their mediocre ground game is likely to get a boost this week by the return of Karlos Williams who missed the Syracuse game last week with an ankle injury. Williams has 353 rush yards on 4.8 yards per carry and 5 rushing TDs. Notre Dame’s defense was gashed by North Carolina but they have shown flashes of dominance on that side of the football as they come into this game ranking 8th in the country with 17.2 points allowed per game.

If Winston plays (which I am hoping he will), we will likely see Notre Dame as a double-digit underdog as they were earlier in the week. Florida State has obviously struggled against the spread as well as stepping up in class with one score wins against Oklahoma State and Clemson. The Irish are more complete than both of those squads and will be able to hang with the Seminoles for a full 60 minutes.

ICC 20* CFB ACC Game Of The Month [AWESOME 18-6 75% +22.8 CFB 20* Since 2013] $39 
Ian Cameron is Sportsmemo's top producer in College Football this season banking +9.7 units of profit. He flat out WINS in College Football and has been delivering the goods with an awesome 87-70 record for 55% winning action banking +22.2 units of profit since the start of the 2013 season. He has crushed the big plays with an AWESOME 18-6 75% for +22.8 units with his College Football 20* releases since the start of last year. He is ready to deliver his strongest ACC play in October on Saturday with his 20* CFB ACC Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB report is free.

Tags: College Football Notre Dame Fighting Irish Florida State Seminoles ACC Ian Cameron



NFL Gambling: Indianapolis Colts dominating time of possession

10.17.2014     08:45 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here's the blueprint for why Indianapolis is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season. Since Andrew Luck took over, the Colts have covered 66% (27-14) of their games.


"We're running a lot of plays on offense," coach Chuck Pagano said. "Consequently we're moving the chains and moving the sticks. The yards are adding up and the points are adding up and all those things. Our defense is chewing ice and sitting on the bench a lot longer, playing a lot less.

"Every time we look up, it's 48 plays, 50 plays, 52 plays on defense, so they're a lot fresher," he added. "When you're fresh, especially in the fourth quarter, it makes all the difference in the world."



Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts



NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices Week 7

10.17.2014     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Link to FiveThirtyEight.com's Elo Ratings and spreads for NFL Week 7. Some of the biggest discrepancies include...

Arizona at Oakland 
Elo: Arizona -9 
Market: Arizona -3.5

San Francisco at Denver 
Elo: Denver -3.5 
Market: Denver -6.5/-7

 
Carolina at Green Bay 
Elo: Green Bay -3 
Market: Green Bay -7

Tennessee at Washington 
Elo: Tennessee -0.5 
Market: Washington -5.5

Houston at Pittsburgh 
Elo: Pittsburgh -6.5 
Market: Pittsburgh -4

Tags: NFL



College Football Betting Preview: Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers

10.17.2014     07:05 AM     Paul Stone     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Paul Stone

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baylor at West Virginia 
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS-1 
CRIS Opener:
Baylor -9.5 O/U 78 
CRIS Current: Baylor -8 O/U 80 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baylor -10.5 
Paul Stone's Recommendation: West Virginia

If Baylor ultimately gains a spot in this season's inaugural College Football Playoff, it will certainly look back on the second Saturday in October as one of its narrow escapes en route to the Final Four.

The fourth-ranked Bears (6-0 on the season) trailed TCU, 58-37, at home last weekend with just 11 minutes remaining before reeling off the game's final 24 points to escape, 61-58, on Chris Callahan's 28-yard field goal as time expired.

The combined 119 points scored by the teams represented the highest scoring game between Top 10 teams in college football history.

After being held mostly in check by Texas' defense the previous week, the Bears erupted for 782 yards and 39 first downs against a respectable TCU stop unit.

Like Baylor, West Virginia, trailing by 14 points in the fourth quarter, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Lubbock as Josh Lambert nailed a school-record 55-yard field goal on the game's final play to give the Mountaineers a 37-34 victory.

Two years ago when the teams last played in Morgantown, a Geno Smith-led West Virginia squad out-lasted Baylor, 70-63, in the highest scoring game in Big XII history.

This season, Baylor and West Virginia both rank among the nation's top 10 teams in total offense. The Bears and Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Petty lead the country at 622.5 yards per game, while the Mountaineers rank eighth at 552.2 yards an outing. 
Saturday's combatants both operate at a break neck pace.

Baylor also leads the nation in offensive plays per game, averaging 94 snaps, while West Virginia is not far behind at fourth at 88 plays per game.

Both teams have weapons all over the field, with none perhaps more explosive than the Mountaineers' Kevin White who leads the NCAA in receiving yards at 888, an average of 148 per game.

The unranked Mountaineers (4-2), whose head coach Dana Holgorsen entered the season firmly on the hot seat, have shown substantial improvement during 2014, with their only defeats coming at the hands of seventh-ranked Alabama (33-23) and 11th-ranked Oklahoma (45-33).

Over the past 10 seasons, West Virginia has hosted a trio of Top 10 opponents, failing to cover on all three occasions. Let's, however, call for the Mountaineers to take an emotionally-spent Baylor team to the wire. Take West Virginia plus 7.5 points.

Paul Stone 20* CFB MAC Total of the Year [5-2 71% +5.5 CFB 20*s YTD] $39 
Off last week's 20* winner on Iowa State, Paul Stone has now hit five of his seven 20*s this season and he's got a big total lined up in the MAC for Saturday. Get in early for $39; guaranteed to cash or Paul's next top rated football play is free.

Tags: College Football Baylor Bears West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII Paul Stone



College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide

10.16.2014     01:44 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas A&M at Alabama 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -12.5 O/U 58.5 
CRIS Current: Alabama -13.5 O/U 63.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -6 
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Texas A&M

This matchup consists of two teams that are being widely hailed as major disappointments by the media and even their own fans. Texas A&M has dropped its last two games and needed overtime to edge Arkansas three games back. Alabama has just one loss (vs. Ole Miss) but was very lucky to win last week at Arkansas thanks to a missed PAT by the Razorbacks.

So what is the reality of these teams? To me Texas A&M is about what I expected them to be. Not quite as good offensively as they were in the Johnny Football years, but still pretty good. Any Kevin Sumlin offense is going to move the ball and light up the scoreboard. They just happened to face the top two teams in the country the past two weeks in Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the best defense in the country and Mississippi State is perhaps the most physical team in the nation. A&M put itself behind the eight ball in both games by turning the ball over three times. They are not good enough to overcome three turnovers a game and beat those two teams, nor will they beat Alabama if they are -3 in turnover margin. Luckily for the Aggies, Bama is not as good defensively as they have been in the past. They have forced just eight turnovers on the year and have some youth in the secondary that can be exploited.

Alabama is also struggling on offense suddenly. After moving up and down the field against a decent Florida defense, the Tide has been terrible over the past two weeks at Ole Miss and at Arkansas. They only managed 227 total yards last week against an Arkansas defense that allowed 523 yards to A&M the week before. Injuries have been a factor in the Tide’s decline the past two weeks as has playing on the road. The biggest factor this week may be Blake Sims’ confidence. He didn’t look like the same quarterback last week, instead of being confident he was tentative and hesitant. If he is hearing the criticisms and footsteps of backup Jake Coker, he might wind up on the bench this week. Bama needs a strong performance by Sims, and the A&M defense has holes that can be exploited.

Texas A&M gets the nod this week with the +13.5 that is available. This offense has given Saban’s defenses fits in recent years and this defense isn’t as talented as the ones that were abused in the past. We have already seen West Virginia have success against Alabama this year and if not for some dropped passes by wide open receivers, the Mountaineers could have pulled the upset. Look for this one to go down to the wire.

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Brent Crow



Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 10-16-2014

10.16.2014     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_cfb_podcast_bar.jpg

Here's our Week 8 College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Handicappers Paul Stone, Brent Crow, and Teddy Covers joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board

Paul Stone - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I

Brent Crow - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II

Teddy Covers - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: College Football Paul Stone Brent Crow Teddy Covers Andrew Lange



College Football Handicapping: Iowa State not married to new found up-tempo offense

10.16.2014     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Through its first five games, Iowa State averaged a very pedestrian 67 plays per game. Last week against Toledo, they incorperated some up-tempo, ran 87 plays, and scored 37 points in the win. But heading into Sunday's game on the road against Texas, it appears that the Cyclones are going to revert back to a more controlled style of offense.


“It can be a real detriment to your defense if you are not (successful) and coming off the field quite quickly,” Rhoads said. 



Tags: College Football Iowa State Cyclones Texas Longhorns Big XII



College Football Betting Alert: Indiana down to third string quarterback

10.15.2014     02:55 PM     Printer Friendly

UPDATE

Well, this isn't good. Following the loss of Nate Sudfeld to a season-ending injury, Indiana's best case scenario at quarterback was true freshman Chris Covington who was originally slated to play linebacker. And head coach Kevin Wilson said Covington was, "hands down the team's best option." News however just broke that Covington won't play this weekend vs. Michigan State. Why he won't play isn't known outside of his mother saying so (huh?). Next in line is fellow freshman Zander Diamont. Line headed Sparty's way as we speak.




College Football Gambling: Indiana loses starting QB Sudfeld, turns to true frosh

10.13.2014     11:42 AM     View Original Blog
Indiana starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld is out for the season with a shoulder injury. The Hoosiers now turn to true frosh Chris Covington who in relief duty vs. Iowa completed only 3-of-12 passes for 31 yards and two interceptions. Not a huge sample size, but Indiana's next four opponents (Penn State, Michigan, Rutgers, and Michigan State) all rank seventh or worse in passing defense in Big Ten play. IU is currently a +13.5/+14 home underdog to Michigan State for Saturday.




Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Michigan State Spartans Big Ten



College Football Gambling: Rutgers isn't happy about how big of underdogs it is to Ohio State

10.15.2014     01:35 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We've said this before; college football players and coaches know the pointspreads of their games. Here we have 5-1 Rutgers who is apparently pretty pissed about the +19.5 they're catching at Ohio State this weekend.


The lopsided line caught the attention of junior captain Darius Hamilton, who simply tweeted "19.5 underdogs...remember that...#choposu" on Monday night.

“It shows how disrespectful it is, but then again, we come in, we strap on the helmet and everybody bleeds just like how we bleed," Carroo said. "Everybody is the same. We just have to go out there and play, listen to coaching and go out there and know that we’re playing for each other and everything will take care of itself out there on the field.”



Tags: College Football Rutgers Scarlet Knights Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten



NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

10.15.2014     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis 
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -3 O/U 49 
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -3 O/U 49.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis 
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The Bengals went into their bye week at 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, in large part because their defense dominated all three of those early season contests (wins over the Ravens, Titans and Falcons).  But in two games since their bye week, Marvin Lewis’s defense has been positively torched, allowing 80 points and 936 yards to the Patriots and Panthers.   The season long stats still show the Bengals with a top 10 defense on a yards-per-play basis, allowing 5.3 yards per opposing snap.  But those numbers were elite two weeks ago; not anywhere near elite today.  That being said, Cinci still ranks #2 in the NFL in yards per play differential; in large part due to the big play ability from Andy Dalton and the passing game.

Part of the problem for the Cincinnati defense has been injuries.  They are missing star LB Rey Maualuga (downgraded to doubtful for Sunday) while fellow LB mauler Vontaze Burfict has missed time and could miss more time with concussion issues.  Throw in injuries to DT Brandon Thompson and LB Emmanuel Lamur and we’re talking about a squad that could be without their entire starting linebacker corps against the Colts on Sunday.  With former coordinator and noted defensive guru Mike Zimmer now coaching the Vikings, it’s reasonable to expect at least a modest drop-off from the Bengals stop unit moving forward.

The Bengals offense didn’t miss a beat without starting wideouts AJ Green and Marvin Jones last week, both of whom are questionable to play this weekend.  Mohammed Sanu and Jermaine Gresham picked up the slack, combining for 16 receptions between them.  And RB Giovani Bernard finally broke his first long touchdown run of the season against the Panthers last Sunday after being held to 16 yards or less on every previous carry this season.

The Colts statistical profile is mediocre once again this year.  The wiseguys have been consistently fading Indy for the last few seasons in large part because of their statistical mediocrity.  Despite their 4-2 record, Chuck Pagano’s squad has been outgained on a yards-per-play basis this year; ranked outside the Top 20 teams in the league in that key wiseguy metric.  That’s not their only mediocre stat!  Indy is mediocre at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and mediocre at holding opponents out of the end zone with their own red zone chances.

But the Colts have one defensive stat that really stands out – their percentage of third down conversions allowed.  The Colts have held foes under 30% conversions on their third down tries, best in the NFL.  And with Andrew Luck showing consistent excellence at converting Indy’s own third down chances (ranked in the top quartile of the league with more than 45% conversions), it becomes very clear.  The Colts are extending drives while their opponents are not, week after week.

Don’t expect a late flood of sharp money pushing this pointspread off the current number of Indy -3.  The wiseguys haven’t bet on the Colts in any significant way this year, and I don’t expect that to change this week.  Plus, if AJ Green plays for the Bengals, he'll surely attract some Cinci $$.  That leaves the Colts as an undervalued commodity moving forward, just as they have been; now 24-13-1 (65%) ATS in the Andrew Luck era.  Take the Colts.

T.Covers 20* Big Ticket NFL Game of the Month [30-18 62% Long Term Big Ticket Run] $39 
Teddy's Big Tickets -- his strongest plays -- have been smoking hot across sports dating all the way back to April, riding a 30-18 [62%]run into the weekend, including an easy four TD winner with his lone Big Ticket Report last week. This line will move, so get onboard with Teddy's NFL Game of the Month right now! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge. 


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Podcast 10-15-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning

10.15.2014     10:45 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wedneday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian, Erin, and host Andrew Lange talked PAC-12 and Big Ten.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - PAC-12 Report

Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football PAC-12 Big Ten Ian Cameron Erin Rynning



College Football Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators

10.15.2014     06:42 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Missouri at Florida 
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2 
CRIS Opener:
Florida -4 O/U 49.5 
CRIS Current: Florida -6 O/U 49.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida -1.5 
OTTO Sports’ Recommendation: Missouri

We're halfway through the college football season and the beauty of the betting markets is the increased amount of varying opinions. Some bettors go on feel and what they see whereas others plug in a power rating and mechanically play what spits out. Either way it creates situations where value is created not because of oddsmakers but because of line moves. The Florida-Missouri game is a good example. The Tigers opened a respectable +4 but are now as high as +6. That may not seem like a significant move but considering three of the Gators' four SEC games were decided by a field goal, a point, and overtime, it could very easily be the difference between an ATS win or loss.

Florida hasn't been able to get out of its own way offensively and in the SEC, you simply don't have the luxury of confidence-boosting games. In conference play, the Gators are averaging 317.5 ypg and have committed a SEC-high 10 turnovers. With a poor offensive line and no sign of a capable passing game, it becomes a tough sell to lay over a field goal vs. comparable competition.

Missouri comes in off a horrific showing vs. Georgia in which they coughed up the ball five times. There was some  flukiness to that game: Georgia was able to fall on its own fumbles and a few tipped passes resulted in interceptions for MU. That said, the Tigers still got beat handedly. And perhaps another sign that Mizzou is a good notch or two below last season. Getting beat at home vs. Indiana, eeking out a win over mediocre South Carolina, and getting blasted at home vs. Georgia off a bye week are not the types of outcomes we witnessed in 2013.

I am however confident we'll see a better showing out of the Tigers and when it is all said and done, even accounting for the venue, there just isn't that much that separates these two middle-of-the-road SEC squads. Baring multiple special teams/defensive scores from the home side, expect another close, one score affair.

Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers Florida Gators SEC OTTO Sports



College Football Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears

10.15.2014     06:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UCLA at California 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC 
CRIS Opener:
UCLA -8.5 O/U 76.5 
CRIS Current: UCLA -7 O/U 74.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: UCLA -8.5 
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: California

I pointed out on the podcast Tuesday that through six games UCLA has had one impressive showing: a 62-27 win at Arizona State. Now it should be pointed out that Virginia and Memphis are much improved and quarterback Brett Hundley went down early in the Texas game. But my concern is more centered on the last two weeks: a home loss as 13-point favorites to Utah and a no-show in last week's blowout loss to Oregon. Add it all up and we're talking about a 1-5 ATS record and a classic case of an overrated football team.

The brings us to this weekend's pointspread. Last week, Cal opened as a pick 'em and was bet up as high as -4.5 (closed -3.5) vs. Washington (who was coming in off a bye). This week, Cal remains in Berkeley but opened +8.5 vs. the Bruins. It's since been bet down to +7 but that's as pretty big swing from UW to UCLA. Yes, Cal didn't look all that good vs. the Huskies (31-7 loss) but there were a few early plays that completely changed the complexion of that game (most notably a 100-yard fumble return by UW). That said, there is little to no difference between the Bruins and Huskies at this point and yet at its respective pointspread peaks there's a 12.5-point swing (+4.5 to -8.5)? No chance.

But while the value clearly rides with the home side, the issue of fatigue remains. One of the biggest angles for betting against the Golden Bears last week was that they had just wrapped up three straight barn burners in which the defense was on the field for an average of over 100 plays per game. Last week wasn't a barnburner but I could see signs of Cal wearing down and with no bye for another two weeks there is concern that this already thin defense won’t be able to come up with the occasional stop.

UCLA is saying all of the right things following its second loss of the season and likelihood of being left out of the playoffs. You also have head coach Jim Mora and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich coming to blows. Mora took the blame but it's a clear sign of frustration in LA. The elixir of course is going to be waltzing up and down the field and hanging 40+ on Cal but I go back to the price of this game and the home underdog is no doubt the right side from a value perspective.

Tags: College Football UCLA Bruins California Golden Bears PAC-12 Andrew Lange






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