Morehead State at Ball State -2 O/U 122
Ball State is playing at a much faster clip this year in part because the offense is much more efficient. Last season, the Cardinals played only nine games with 65 possessions or more whereas this season, 13 of their 17 contests equaled or surpassed that mark. Part of their offense is centered on free throws as they attempt 28.6 per game which accounts for nearly 29% of the offense.
Morehead State has really struggled over its last two games with back-to-back losses to Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky. The Eagles managed only 89 points in the two games. That was a far departure from a team that averaged 75 ppg its previous six tilts. I don't feel as if Morehead will be able to waltz in and hang 70+ on Ball State but given the loose nature of this non-conference affair, I expect a decent offensive showing.
We are getting a discount here with Ball State lined at 127 and 123 against Central and Eastern Michigan – two teams that simply can't score. Morehead was lined above this against EIU and EKU – two teams that play at a slow pace and also can't score. I'm going to be proactive here and play this one over the total.