Milwaukee at Denver -4.5 O/U 199 
Recommendation: Over

There’s a lot of debate in the handicapping community about what the pace is going to be like as teams are forced to play three games in three nights for the first time since the 90’s.  Some bettors expect lots of jump shots falling short due to tired legs, leading to lower scoring games.  Other bettors expect slow reactions on defense, leading to a high shooting percentage, lots of fouls and plenty of easy buckets in transition – in other words, higher scoring games.

Any winning poker player will tell you that the right answer to just about any poker question is “it depends on the situation.” In my opinion, that’s very much the case for these three-games-in-three-nights situations, like the one Denver finds itself in this evening against the Bucks.  Denver is a very deep and athletic team.  They are coming off a pair of Unders against the Lakers, but every team that has faced LA this year has cashed an Under ticket – Mike Brown’s squad is 6-0 to the Under thus far. And it’s surely worth noting that last night’s Under had everything to do with miserable three-point shooting (a woeful 6-of-41 between the two teams), and not much to do with pace.

But with all their depth and talent, Denver is not going to be an Under team on a consistent basis, unless they play against a squad that looks to slow it down at every opportunity.  In recent years under Scott Skiles, the Bucks have been that type of a squad, with a pace that has ranked among the slowest in all of basketball.  That hasn’t been the case in 2012.  The Bucks have gotten their offense untracked, scoring 95+ in all three of their games.  But Milwaukee’s defense has taken a step back, leaving the door open for Denver to run and gun, as they love to do.  In a series that has seen a 7-2 run to the Over in the last nine meetings, expect a relatively high scoring ballgame tonight.