Charlotte at Washington -3.5 O/U 212.5
Recommendation: Washington
There’s a lot to like about the Washington Wizards right now. The markets devalued the Wizards immediately after star point guard John Wall got hurt. Since Wall’s injury, Tomas Satoransky and Tim Frazier have gotten the job done at the point in his absence; a duo that combined for 19 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists without a single turnover in the Wizards outright upset victory at Cleveland last night.
Wins and covers have been the norm, not the exception for Scott Brooks squad of late. They’ve gone 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS since Wall’s injury. And both losses deserve an asterisk – they lost in OT against the top notch Celtics and on the second night of back-2-backs at surging Philly. Last night’s win at Cleveland was just one outright upset during this span. They also beat Toronto and OKC as home dogs during this recent span of excellence.
The advanced metric numbers show that Washington’s current surge is no accident. Both their offensive and defensive stats have improved since Wall’s injury; most notably with the Wizards offense averaging more than four points per 100 possessions MORE than they did with Wall in the lineup. The markets have devalued Washington just as they’ve surged!
All Star Bradley Beal, prior to last night’s win at Cleveland: "We take advantage of (the All-Star break) because we got a lot of guys banged up. We still got John out. ….I think (the break) came at a good time, although we were definitely on a nice, little run. We finished off well, going into All-Star (weekend), and we've got to pick it up right where we left off."
Charlotte has struggled on the second night of back-2-backs all year: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS. Their last win in this role came before Christmas, and they’ve lost by double digits on the second of back-2-backs three times in their last four tries. Coming off a game against Brooklyn last night where shots were falling – the Hornets hit 52% from three point range on their way to hanging 111 on the Nets – it’s easy to picture a scenario tonight in which the Hornets don’t hit so many contested shots. Undervalued commodity in Washington right now.
