Sacramento +6 at Phoenix O/U 218.5
Pair of non-playoff teams with different perceptions on how they’re approaching these meaningless final games. Phoenix is a team people see as still giving effort while Sacramento is a disgruntled group that can’t wait for the season to end. To some extent, that’s why Phoenix is favored by any amount in this matchup and the -6 that we see right now has the absence of Kings top player DeMarcus Cousins tacked on to it. The Suns have a key injury of their own as Archie Goodwin who has played very well down the stretch is expected to miss tonight’s game. That leaves Phoenix with just one PG (Ronnie Price) and puts the Suns' backcourt at a distinct disadvantage in this game. Rajon Rondo should play tonight but even if he doesn’t, the combination of Darren Collison (27 pts yesterday), Seth Curry (averagining 17.0 pts L5G) plus shooting guards James Anderson and Ben McLemore gives Sacramento four guards who are playing hard and will own talent and depth advantages tonight. Phoenix isn’t significantly better than Sacramento at the C position even with Cousins on the bench because rookie backup Willie Cauley-Stein has played well down the stretch. There are really no fundamental advantages in this game for Phoenix which makes the price tag seem very heavy. Home floor means little to nothing since Phoenix is 3-8 ATS its last 11 games as a home favorite and despite the perception, Sacramento is closing strong going 9-3 ATS in its last 12. Kings have been a decent pointspread underdog this year but in this price range (+6.5 to +9), they’ve gone 5-1. They’ve also been pretty good in the second of back-to-back situations going 11-8 ATS. Have to give them a look here against an opponent they match up well with.