SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
2014 MLB Special
Purchase Any 2014 MLB Season
Get NBA Playoffs FREE
Your Choice, Any 2 Cappers
Available Via Email Or Phone
Sports Memo Ad 0
Veno Streaks and Highlights
18-10 64% +12.39 MLB Streak
177-147 55% +36.24 MLB 2013
Since January 1st 2013:
+92.82 Units All Sports
Daily Packages As Low As $20
Sports Memo Ad 1
A.Lange Crushing It In 2014
114-74 61% +35.55 All Sports
+46.555 MLB Sides All-Time
Editors Choice Plays $25-$39
Sports Memo Ad 2
ER All Sports Dominator
55% +94.03 Units All Sports
Overall Since 12/1/2011
5-1 83% +5.7 All Sports Streak
All Access $299 Per Month
Sports Memo Ad 3
Ian Cameron Highlights
+36.34 All Sports Since 2013
201-179 +15.875 Lifetime NHL
10-5 67% NBA Hot Streak
8-4 67% NBA Playoffs 2013
Weekly NHL or NBA $99
Sports Memo Ad 4
Erin Rynning NBA
8-Straight Winning Seasons
NBA 56% +141.7Last 8 Years
63% +32.2 Playoffs 2008-13
59% +20.8 Last 157 NBA Plays
Rest of NBA Season $399

Sports Memo Ad 5
Brent Crow Hot Streaks
108-87 55% All Sport Streak
+14.34 Units MLB 2013
78-64 +21.46 Long Term 20*

20* Plays From $29 Daily
Weekly Packages From $99

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Debunking the Zig-Zag Theory

04.21.2011     11:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The zig-zag theory for the NBA Playoffs can be expressed in a single sentence: Bet on the team that lost their last game. Obviously, you can’t bet it in Game 1 of any series, but starting with Game 2, the theory holds a significant influence on the betting marketplace.

The thought process behind the theory is simple as well. A team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.

The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a pointspread adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2, like Denver moving from +6 in Game 1 to +4/4.5 in Game 2 at Oklahoma City, or Portland moving from +5/5.5 in the opener to +3.5 in Game 2 at Dallas.

In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing an 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on the road. Look no further than the Knicks opening as home favorites over Boston in Game 3 as a prime example.

Wiseguy bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the books are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses. And yet the theory itself hasn’t earned a profit for more than a decade; a classic case of the betting markets adjusting to current realities without bettors themselves realizing what has happened.

The NBA zig-zag theory was a big moneymaker in the 1980’s, when it wasn’t widely known or publicized. By the 1990’s, the increasing sophistication and the constant nature of adjustments within the betting markets led to a period of decreasing returns.

A recent database study showed that in playoff games from 1991-2000, the zig-zag went 311-249-19, producing a 55.5% ATS result with a sample size of nearly 600 games. And we shouldn’t forget that many bettors who didn’t have access to multiple pointspreads from varying sportsbooks did much worse than that – losing on many of the plays graded as a push in the database, and pushing on a handful of plays that were graded as wins.

Over the last decade, from 2001-2010, blindly betting the zig-zag theory went 331-317-9, 51% ATS winners. We all know that at the standard 11-to-10 sportsbook formula (ignoring offshore ‘reduced juice’ shops and betting exchanges), you have to hit 52.4% of your wagers to break even. If you’ve been blindly betting the zig-zag theory for the last decade, you’ve lost money.

And yet the theory still seems to hold a magical sway over many bettors. You can’t read an NBA Playoff betting article without some reference to the zig-zag, much like you can’t find a Monday Night Football discussion without some mention of the home underdog angle – which was debunked in a Sportsmemo blog posted by Tim Trushel last September. Bettors need to know that these theories are completely outdated.

Blindly betting zig-zag won’t make you any money at all. In fact, if you’ve been zig-zag betting the Game 2’s so far this year, you’ve gone 2-6 ATS. The Knicks and Pacers were the only two winners; while these Game 1 losers – the 76ers, Magic, Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers – all lost ATS. I wouldn’t count on significantly better returns in the Game 3’s over the next few days.

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers





This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays

Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
04.18 11:53
04.17 13:18
04.17 11:00
04.17 10:56
04.16 11:29

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     04.21.2014 8:00 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.16.2014 10:14 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.14.2014 7:42 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.09.2014 10:35 AM
Ted Sevransky     04.07.2014 8:02 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 23, 2014 12:03 AM.