SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0

Erin Rynning Owns the NBA
10 Straight Winning Seasons
+187.2 units 2005-present
60% on 750+ Totals since '09
61% 20* Totals since '05
Click here for ER's NBA options

Sports Memo Ad 0

Andrew Lange Mr. NFL
102-62 62% +43.8 2012-'16
24-10 71% +17.25 YTD
62% 20*s L2 Seasons
NFL Daily Plays $30-$39

Sports Memo Ad 1
Erin Rynning Football Winners
61% NFL Totals since 2007
60% CFB Totals since 2010
31-19 62% +14.75 NFL YTD
NFL Daily Plays $30-$39
Sports Memo Ad 2

Teddy Covers' Unreal Football
54-27 67% +35.95 NFL YTD
45-30 60% +12.3 CFB YTD
99-57 63% +48.25 CFB/NFL
Lock in Teddy Covers' service

Sports Memo Ad 3

OTTO Sports all about WINS
27-15 64% +13.925 NFL YTD
26-10 72% +24.35 CFB YTD
53-25 68% +38.275 CFB/NFL
27-20 57% +7 NBA YTD
Check out OTTO's serivce today!

Sports Memo Ad 4
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register an account today!
Sports Memo Ad 5

Lange CRUSHES CBB Totals
Huge Market Influence
334-215 61% +110.15
40-25 62% +12.5 CBB YTD
Monthly CBB only $299
Full Season REDUCED $499

Sports Memo Ad 6
Brent Crow OWNS CBB
58-34 63% +26.45 CBB YTD
29-17 +16.15 Best Bets
57% Totals since 2009
CBB Daily Plays $20-$29
CBB Feb Only $299

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Debunking the Zig-Zag Theory

04.21.2011     11:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The zig-zag theory for the NBA Playoffs can be expressed in a single sentence: Bet on the team that lost their last game. Obviously, you can’t bet it in Game 1 of any series, but starting with Game 2, the theory holds a significant influence on the betting marketplace.

The thought process behind the theory is simple as well. A team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.

The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a pointspread adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2, like Denver moving from +6 in Game 1 to +4/4.5 in Game 2 at Oklahoma City, or Portland moving from +5/5.5 in the opener to +3.5 in Game 2 at Dallas.

In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing an 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on the road. Look no further than the Knicks opening as home favorites over Boston in Game 3 as a prime example.

Wiseguy bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the books are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses. And yet the theory itself hasn’t earned a profit for more than a decade; a classic case of the betting markets adjusting to current realities without bettors themselves realizing what has happened.

The NBA zig-zag theory was a big moneymaker in the 1980’s, when it wasn’t widely known or publicized. By the 1990’s, the increasing sophistication and the constant nature of adjustments within the betting markets led to a period of decreasing returns.

A recent database study showed that in playoff games from 1991-2000, the zig-zag went 311-249-19, producing a 55.5% ATS result with a sample size of nearly 600 games. And we shouldn’t forget that many bettors who didn’t have access to multiple pointspreads from varying sportsbooks did much worse than that – losing on many of the plays graded as a push in the database, and pushing on a handful of plays that were graded as wins.

Over the last decade, from 2001-2010, blindly betting the zig-zag theory went 331-317-9, 51% ATS winners. We all know that at the standard 11-to-10 sportsbook formula (ignoring offshore ‘reduced juice’ shops and betting exchanges), you have to hit 52.4% of your wagers to break even. If you’ve been blindly betting the zig-zag theory for the last decade, you’ve lost money.

And yet the theory still seems to hold a magical sway over many bettors. You can’t read an NBA Playoff betting article without some reference to the zig-zag, much like you can’t find a Monday Night Football discussion without some mention of the home underdog angle – which was debunked in a Sportsmemo blog posted by Tim Trushel last September. Bettors need to know that these theories are completely outdated.

Blindly betting zig-zag won’t make you any money at all. In fact, if you’ve been zig-zag betting the Game 2’s so far this year, you’ve gone 2-6 ATS. The Knicks and Pacers were the only two winners; while these Game 1 losers – the 76ers, Magic, Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers – all lost ATS. I wouldn’t count on significantly better returns in the Game 3’s over the next few days.

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$69
Looking to close out one of the greatest NFL seasons in Sportsmemo history with 67% winners and nearly +36 units of profit, Teddy Covers comes in BIG for Super Bowl 50. He's got a 10* selection on the total as well as SEVEN prop bet recommendations with analysis. Get Teddy's entire Super Bowl 50 package for only $69!

$69
Rob Veno is ready to close out the NFL with a bang as he checks in with a 10* side report for Sunday's Super Bowl 50 as well as EIGHT prop bet recommendations with analysis. Get all of Rob's Super Bowl action for only $69!

$39
Ian Cameron and his clients have enjoyed a phenomenal NFL season with +12.3 units of profit in the bank. He is locked and loaded for Super Bowl 50 on Sunday as Carolina and Denver battle for supremacy with 10 strong props for the big game and you can get Ian's entire Super Bowl 50 Props Package complete with detailed written analysis for just $39.

$39
Alex B. Smith is hitting the Super Bowl 50 Prop Bets HARD! He's got seven selections including a number of halftime entertainment picks with analysis you can pick up for only $39. Lock in Alex's Prop Bet Report today!


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
01.14 14:34
01.14 14:33
01.14 14:29
01.14 14:27
01.08 12:03

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     02.05.2016 10:32 AM
Ted Sevransky     02.04.2016 7:34 AM
Ted Sevransky     02.01.2016 9:00 AM
Ted Sevransky     01.29.2016 12:37 PM
Ted Sevransky     01.29.2016 6:46 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Feb 06, 2016 09:47 PM.