SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
DECEMBER 2 REMEMBER
All Sports Monthly Coverage
$100 off regular price
CBB, NBA, CFB, NFL, NHL
Handicapper of your choice
Every play through 12/31
NOW ONLY $199
Sports Memo Ad 0
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online
Sports Memo Ad 1
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register an account today!
Sports Memo Ad 2
Weekly NBA or CBB $99 
December NBA $199 
December CBB $199
Full Season NBA or CBB $999
Erin Rynning NBA $1299
CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE
Sports Memo Ad 3
WEEKLY FOOTBALL
Tuesday-Monday Coverage
College Football or NFL $99
CFB/NFL Combo $149
Great option for daily purchasers
CLICK HERE TO CASH IN

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Debunking the Zig-Zag Theory

04.21.2011     11:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The zig-zag theory for the NBA Playoffs can be expressed in a single sentence: Bet on the team that lost their last game. Obviously, you can’t bet it in Game 1 of any series, but starting with Game 2, the theory holds a significant influence on the betting marketplace.

The thought process behind the theory is simple as well. A team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.

The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a pointspread adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2, like Denver moving from +6 in Game 1 to +4/4.5 in Game 2 at Oklahoma City, or Portland moving from +5/5.5 in the opener to +3.5 in Game 2 at Dallas.

In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing an 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on the road. Look no further than the Knicks opening as home favorites over Boston in Game 3 as a prime example.

Wiseguy bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the books are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses. And yet the theory itself hasn’t earned a profit for more than a decade; a classic case of the betting markets adjusting to current realities without bettors themselves realizing what has happened.

The NBA zig-zag theory was a big moneymaker in the 1980’s, when it wasn’t widely known or publicized. By the 1990’s, the increasing sophistication and the constant nature of adjustments within the betting markets led to a period of decreasing returns.

A recent database study showed that in playoff games from 1991-2000, the zig-zag went 311-249-19, producing a 55.5% ATS result with a sample size of nearly 600 games. And we shouldn’t forget that many bettors who didn’t have access to multiple pointspreads from varying sportsbooks did much worse than that – losing on many of the plays graded as a push in the database, and pushing on a handful of plays that were graded as wins.

Over the last decade, from 2001-2010, blindly betting the zig-zag theory went 331-317-9, 51% ATS winners. We all know that at the standard 11-to-10 sportsbook formula (ignoring offshore ‘reduced juice’ shops and betting exchanges), you have to hit 52.4% of your wagers to break even. If you’ve been blindly betting the zig-zag theory for the last decade, you’ve lost money.

And yet the theory still seems to hold a magical sway over many bettors. You can’t read an NBA Playoff betting article without some reference to the zig-zag, much like you can’t find a Monday Night Football discussion without some mention of the home underdog angle – which was debunked in a Sportsmemo blog posted by Tim Trushel last September. Bettors need to know that these theories are completely outdated.

Blindly betting zig-zag won’t make you any money at all. In fact, if you’ve been zig-zag betting the Game 2’s so far this year, you’ve gone 2-6 ATS. The Knicks and Pacers were the only two winners; while these Game 1 losers – the 76ers, Magic, Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers – all lost ATS. I wouldn’t count on significantly better returns in the Game 3’s over the next few days.

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Ian Cameron continues to heat up on the ice with his top rated 20* Main Event releases. He is 3-1 75% with his last 4 NHL 20* plays as part of a lifetime profitable mark of 25-18 58% for +12 units of profit with his NHL 20* Main Event releases. Ian is ready to put those streaks to the test tonight with his strongest Western Conference side report in December worthy of being his 20* NHL Western Conference Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NHL Hockey report is free.

$20
Erin Rynning is back with another total for tonight's NBA card. He's hit 62% of his NBA totals since 2010 so make Monday's play a part of your arsenal. Get his 10* NBA Total of the Day for just $20 and it's guaranteed to cash or his next hoops play is on the house.

$25
Brent Crow is a solid 17-9 with his CBB 15* and 20* Best Bets on the year and has a huge 15-star CBB Best Bet Total for tonight's action. Cash in for $25; guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is free.

$30
OTTO Sports comes in with a 10* NFL on MNF play on Monday's tilt on ESPN. He's nailed 8 of his last 12 NFL plays and you can add another one to your bankroll for $30. It must cash or his next top rated football play is free of charge.

$25
Rob Veno has posted +89.53 units of profit since the start of 2013 and for Monday CBB action he checks in with a 15* Bluechip Best Bet. Rob's play is just $25 and must win or you receive his next CBB report at no additional cost.

$20
Teddy has lived in Las Vegas since 1998, developing a strong network of contacts among the biggest bettors and bookmakers in the world. Those contacts have made it very clear. Sharp $$ is pouring in on this college hoops side for Monday, another right side winner just waiting to happen. Ride this scorching 80% college hoops run one more time tonight! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$20
Ian Cameron finished strong last season in the NBA on a 28-16 64% run for +9.2 units of profit to close out the campaign using a highly selective approach. He is a solid 7-3 for 70% winning action in the NBA here in the month of December using that conservative style and he is ready to deliver his single strongest side in NBA action tonight with his 10* NBA Top Side. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next hoops report is free.

$20
Sammy P is coming off of a 3-1 Saturday on the ice and he comes in with an isolated 10* today. Sammy is on absolute FIRE as he's run his NHL streak to 30-19 now! He comes back tonight with a huge 10* NHL Play of the Day that is his only play on the card. Sammy is on one of his patented NHL hot streaks, so don't miss out tonight! This 10* winner is yours for only $20; a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house!

$35
Paul Stone kicked off the bowl season in style with a 20* winner on Air Force. He comes back with a top rated 15* report for Tuesday's Poinsettia Bowl. Get on board with this big winner for $35; guaranteed to cash or his next play is on the house.

$39
Paul Stone's top total of the entire bowl season is locked and loaded. It comes on one of the pre-New Year's games so don't wait to get on board. The play is guaranteed to cash or Paul's next top rated bowl selection is on the house.

$39
Rob Veno has been an ABSOLUTE FORCE with his 20* BLUECHIP releases in 2014 posting a 64-39 62% mark stacking up +46.06 units of profit and for pre-Christmas action, he's released his 20* CFB Bowl Total Of The Week. Get on board with him for only $39; guaranteed to cash or his next selection is free.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
12.21 08:56
12.20 11:17
12.20 11:15
12.20 11:11
12.20 11:09

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     12.22.2014 10:09 AM
Ted Sevransky     12.18.2014 12:03 PM
Ted Sevransky     12.15.2014 8:12 AM
Ted Sevransky     12.08.2014 8:08 AM
Ted Sevransky     12.07.2014 8:31 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 22, 2014 04:50 PM.