NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers Teddy Covers Miami at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
Pittsburgh -3.45 O/U 41.5
Pittsburgh -3 O/U 40.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Both the Steelers and the Dolphins are fundamentally flawed football teams, yet both remain very ‘live’ in the AFC Playoff picture. The 6-6 Dolphins are currently tied with Baltimore for the #6 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers rank just one game behind with four left to play. That being said, neither team can like their chances if they lose this week. We should expect a maximum intensity playoff-level showdown as a result.
The Steelers chances took a real blow last week with their loss at Baltimore, unable to convert the game tying two point try at the end of regulation. But that defeat didn’t end their season, not by any stretch of the imagination. QB Ben Roethlisberger following the loss: “I don't expect any quit. We haven't quit to this point… I'm going to fight my butt off all the way to the end.”
Both teams have serious and significant offensive line issues. Miami is the only team in the NFL to have scored 27 or less in every game this season. Ryan Tannehill has taken more sacks than any QB in the NFL this year. The Dolphins offensive line, already without Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, is likely to be without starting guard John Jerry this week. Leading rushers Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas average less than four yards per carry and barely 75 yards per game between them.
The Steelers offensive line has been a disaster for extended stretches this year, and their cluster injury problems are getting worse, not better. Pittsburgh will be down to their third string center this week after Fernando Velasco just went on IR. Guard David DeCastro and tackle Kelvin Beachum are both banged up as well, neither a sure thing to suit up on Sunday. Top back Le’Veon Bell isn’t healthy either, bad news for a team that has averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry this year – only Baltimore and Jacksonville are worse.
While both offenses continue to struggle to put touchdowns on the board, both defenses are in excellent current form. Miami has given up only five touchdowns in their last four games, a stop unit that has consistently stepped up in the red zone. And it’s surely worth noting that the Dolphins QB rating allowed of 72.7 ranks among the top three pass defenses in the NFL this year. The Steelers offense ranks #27 in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals.
Meanwhile, the Steelers stop unit is well above the league average at forcing red zone field goal attempts, including last week’s shutdown effort against the Ravens. For a Dolphins offense that has been mediocre at best this season, playing in the cold on the lousy Heinz Field surface, it’s easy to picture another sluggish offensive showing here.
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NFL Gambling Preview: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
|Submitted by Brian Edwards|Tags: NFL Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles Brian Edwards Detroit at Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 53
Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Brian Edwards' Recommendation:
With four games left in the playoff chase, every game is crucial. Two NFC contenders will square off Sunday afternoon when the Eagles and Lions collide in the City of Brotherly Love.
As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Philadelphia (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) favored by -2.5 (offshore) or -3 (Las Vegas). The shops at 2.5 are attaching a -120 price, while those at three have the Eagles at -105 or even money. The total is 54, while the Lions are +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).
Chip Kelly’s team is in a first-place tie with Dallas in the NFC East. Philadelphia has won four consecutive games and six of its last eight. The Eagles are coming off a 24-21 win over Arizona as 3.5-point home favorites. They disappointed their backers by going into the victory formation and kneeling on the ball at the Arizona two-yard line with 1:12 remaining.
Nick Foles threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against the Cardinals. The University of Arizona product has 19 TD passes for the season and has yet to be intercepted.
Kelly’s offense has excellent balance thanks to the production of RB LeSean McCoy, who is second in the NFL with 1,088 rushing yards. McCoy has five rushing scores and a 4.7 yards-per-carry average. The speedster out of Pittsburgh has hauled in 39 receptions for 436 yards and one TD.
When Jeremy Maclin suffered a season-ending injury in training camp, it became imperative that DeSean Jackson stay healthy and Riley Cooper step up and become a reliable No. 2 target. Both of those scenarios have come to fruition.
Jackson has a team-best 61 catches for 1,021 yards and seven TDs, while Cooper has 34 receptions for 638 yards and seven TDs.
Detroit (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) had lost back-to-back games both SU and ATS until dealing out a 40-10 beatdown to Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions easily hooked up their backers as seven-point home favorites, while the 50 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 48.5-point total.
Although he did throw two more interceptions, Matthew Stafford had 330 passing yards and three touchdown tosses. Reggie Bush rushed 20 times for 117 yards and one TD. Bush also had five receptions for 65 yards, while Calvin Johnson had had a team-high six catches for 101 yards and one TD.
Jim Schwartz’s squad goes how Stafford goes. The University of Georgia product is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,825) and has a 27/14 TD-INT ratio. However, Stafford has been intercepted in five straight games and has six picks over the last two weeks.
Johnson is the league’s premier wide receiver, leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,299). ‘Megatron’ has 72 receptions for 12 TDs.
Bush’s addition has provided this offense with its first reliable back since Stafford became the starter. Bush has run for 854 yards and three TDs, while also catching 45 balls for 448 yards and two more scores.
The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Lions, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in their six road assignments. They have seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven outings.
Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Eagles, but they have watched the ‘under’ cash at a lucrative 5-1 clip.
These clubs met in Philadelphia last season, too, with the Lions winning 26-23 in overtime. Detroit collected the outright victory as a 3.5-point underdog, while ‘over’ backers cashed tickets thanks to the extra session because the field goal eclipsed the 47.5-point mark.
Stafford and then-starter Michael Vick threw for 311 yards apiece.
In this contest, I think the number for the side is correct. We have even teams for the most part (I personally think Detroit should be favored by 1.5 on a neutral field) so the home team is a short favorite at 2.5 or three.
Therefore, I’ll stay away from the side. The value I believe is with an ‘under’ play. As I pointed out above, the ‘under’ has been gold in Philly’s home games (5-1) and solid when the Lions are on the road (4-2).
As of Thursday, the weather conditions were calling for a 40-percent chance of snow or freezing rain and a little bit of wind (5-10 mph). Those factors led me to make the total 49.5 and we’re looking at 54. I’ll take the ‘under.’
Sports Betting Podcast 12-5-2013 College Football Every Game on the Board
|Tags: College Football Brian Edwards|
NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 14
Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence Submitted by Stat Intelligence
Here are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get a clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.
Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by this season’s turnover differential in the second parenthesis…
Houston: 10.8 on offense, 13.5 on defense (6-15) (-12 turnovers)
Jacksonville: 6.2 on offense, 16.7 on defense (2-10) (-4 turnovers)
(Houston is 10.1 and 13.2 in the games started by Keenum…and he’s been better in the turnover department than Schaub was. Has somebody already made a comparison between Schaub and Jake Delhomme? Could he have just lost it in the same way? Jags are 24-24 in this stat the last two weeks combined, after an eight-game stretch that was 47-173 the wrong way. Burke values the AFC South schedules much more than Football Outsiders does)
Kansas City: 11.2 on offense, 12.8 on defense (28-32) (+14 turnovers)
Washington: 14.9 on offense, 15.9 on defense (16-12) (-3 turnovers)
(Forgot to mention this the other night. Watching Russell Wilson of Seattle scamper around Monday Night vs. New Orleans really drove home the point of how RGIII is no longer able to scamper. He can kind of “scoot” if he sees an opening…but he can’t turn on a dime and fly. Big difference…and something that really jumps out if you watch those guys play on back to back nights)
Minnesota: 16.1 on offense, 19.1 on defense (17-9) (-9 turnovers)
Baltimore: 11.3 on offense, 10.9 on defense (32-23) (-3 turnovers)
(Minnesota has a terrible defense…and is coming off back-to-back overtime games after visiting Settle. Third road game in four weeks too. Brutal. Can Baltimore’s offense take advantage? Not a sure thing. Baltimore has only reached 17 drive points in a game once in the last six weeks…against similarly poor Chicago. Baltimore hasn’t topped 17 in a game all season, despite playing a soft schedule)
Cleveland: 9.8 on offense, 8.1 on defense (29-25) (-9 turnovers)
New England: 15.9 on offense, 11.1 on defense (24-11) (+8 turnovers)
(Still haven’t heard who’s quarterbacking the Browns)
Oakland: 9.4 on offense, 13.8 on defense (22-28) (-2 turnovers)
NY Jets: 7.0 on offense, 12.7 on defense (19-8) (-18 turnovers)
(You have to be really bad to be under 10.0 on offense in this stat this year. Both of these teams have suffered that fate. The Jets have combined it with a turnover disaster. Abysmal)
Indianapolis: 13.8 on offense, 13.4 on defense (7-18) (+6 turnovers)
Cincinnati: 13.8 on offense, 9.5 on defense (27-26) (-1 turnovers)
(Nice profile for Cincinnati, but it’s spoiled by that very soft schedule. It’s been awhile since they faced a playoff team. Bengals were outscored in this stat 41-35 by GB/NE/Detroit in the only three games they played against opponents who definitely seemed to be playoff caliber at kickoff. Indianapolis may not qualify any more as badly as the Colts are playing. If wins were based on drive points, Indy would have been 5-0 in the first five weeks vs. a decent schedule, but 1-6 the last seven games vs. a weaker slate)
Carolina: 14.3 on offense, 7.9 on defense (11-5) (+10 turnovers)
New Orleans: 16.6 on offense, 12.3 on defense (18-3) (+3 turnovers)
(Helpful to have Carolina and NO this close to Cincinnati for comparison, because some analytics places have them clustered somewhat nearby. The Panthers and Saints have played tougher schedules. Carolina’s +6.4 against a tough schedule with plus turnovers is a red flag for a Super Bowl sleeper. New Orleans isn’t far off…but shut down defenses typically have more control over their destiny in the postseason. As we mentioned last week, Football Outsiders seems to value the NFC North schedules more than Burke does)
Detroit: 18.0 on offense, 14.3 on defense (30-20) (-8 turnovers)
Philadelphia: 16.5 on offense, 13.7 on defense (21-27) (+6 turnovers)
(Very interesting game. Detroit is explosive, but a sloppiness machine. Their defense isn’t as tough as their press clippings would suggest. Philadelphia’s numbers were warped by a 42-17 result in this stat against an Oakland team that no-showed an afternoon. The Eagles fall to 14.2 for the year without that…which is enough to damage against the Lions defense you’d think)
Miami: 10.6 on offense, 10.9 on defense (20-14) (+2 turnovers)
Pittsburgh: 13.1 on offense, 12.8 on defense (31-30) (-4 turnovers)
(Tough for Miami to play back-to-back weeks out of climate)
Buffalo: 11.5 on offense, 12.4 on defense (23-13) (+2 turnovers)
Tampa Bay : 8.2 on offense, 13.3 on defense (3-1) (+10 turnovers)
(Tampa Bay turned back into a pumpkin for a week at Carolina. Very tough schedule this year for the Bucs, who haven’t been embarrassing themselves lately when not playing powers. Miami’s got to be wondering why they have to play in NY and Pittsburgh on consecutive post-Thanksgiving Sundays while division rival Buffalo gets to play in a Toronto dome and in Tampa Bay)
Tennessee: 13.1 on offense, 12.5 on defense (15-24) (+2 turnovers)
Denver: 23.3 on offense, 14.5 on defense (14-31) (-4 turnovers)
(Will Broncos get juices flowing? Last four games have been three in the division plus the road game at New England. Tough spot for Tennessee though because this is their third straight road game. Unfair at altitude! Some football feng shui on Denver’s schedule…it’s either been about league average or second-easiest depending on who you ask.)
St. Louis: 14.4 on offense, 14.8 on defense (1-7) (+8 turnovers)
Arizona: 13.1 on offense, 10.2 on defense (5-4) (-1 turnovers)
(Arizona’s profile took a bit of a hit with a 17-14 drive point loss at Philly last week. But, that’s still a solid stat line considering the brutality of the schedule. Mentally project what those differentials would be vs. league average schedules. Killer division)
NY Giants: 12.0 on offense, 9.4 on defense (8-6) (-11 turnovers)
San Diego: 14.3 on offense, 16.8 on defense (10-29) (-4 turnovers)
(The Giants would also grade out like a sleeper vs. a league average schedule if not for all those early turnovers. The problem is, the turnovers were coming against the playoff caliber teams in the first half of the schedule…and the “clean-up” came when they stepped down in class. San Diego’s been a clock eater in our Pace Factor stuff this year…which means the offense is a bit more lethal than the number above makes it look, but the defense is even more hapless. More feng shui on the schedule strength for SD. Similar to Denver from the same division)
Seattle: 15.4 on offense, 8.9 on defense (13-19) (+12 turnovers)
San Francisco: 12.1 on offense, 9.9 on defense (12-16) (+6 turnovers)
(A potential flat spot for Seattle who went all out to virtually cinch the #1 seed Monday. They don’t need this game at all…and going to war with a physical team may actually be kind of dumb. Can they resist the urge to have a rumble? Seattle’s +6.5 differential vs. a league average schedule with a defense that forces turnovers is lethal in terms of Super Bowl potential. Interested to see if Crabtree’s return for SF can stem their season trend of looking awful vs. playoff teams while crushing everyone else. I think it was Grantland who had an article today about the Niners being a playoff sleeper. They’re not one until they stop getting squashed in the stats by playoff caliber teams. Crabtree has to be the guy who lifts the offense past the 4.1, 4.8, 2.9, and 3.5 yards-per-play they had against Seattle/Indy/Carolina/New Orleans)
Atlanta: 14.8 on offense, 17.4 on defense (4-2) (-11 turnovers)
Green Bay: 14.9 on offense, 15.5 on defense (26-22) (-4 turnovers)
(Will the weather allow for the shootout those stats are suggesting?)
Dallas: 13.2 on offense, 20.0 on defense (9-17) (+12 turnovers)
Chicago: 17.3 on offense, 18.8 on defense (25-21) (+7 turnovers)
(Can say the same thing here. Might have been another 45-41 type game if this were in Arlington, which is what the Bears did in Washington against a similarly soft defense. Still kind of befuddled at all the pro-Romo press this year. That 13.2 isn’t anything special in this particular season. The only time the offense topped 5.5 yards-per-play in the last seven weeks was the 5.6 they got indoors against Minnesota’s awful defense. I guess he showed leadership in their one-possession wins over Minnesota, NYG, and Oakland. They were favored by -9 in two of those)
College Football Betting: Fresno State's defense hoping to show up vs. Utah State
Tags: College Football Fresno State Bulldogs Utah State Aggies Mountain West Utah State at Fresno State -3.5 O/U 60
Just how bad was Fresno State's defensive performance against San Jose State last week? For starters, the Spartans punted only once. In terms of drives, San Jose posted the following:
79 yards, TD
71 yards, TD
75 yards, TD
75 yards, TD
77 yards, TD
75 yards, TD
52 yards, TD
37 yards, FG
58 yards, TD
49 yards, FG
Of course Fresno is saying all the right things
in regards to bouncing back for Saturday's Mountain West Championship against Utah State. The two squads did not meet during the regular season.
"We have to play like we did the other nine weeks when we were the No. 1 or No. 2 defense in the league in third-down defense," defensive coordinator Nick Toth said. "We've been really good at that. They run the ball and their effective in their offense they don't play many third-and-longs. They play third-down-and-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5's, which is why they're so good at it.
College Football Gambling Trends: Favorites are 9-2 SU in SEC Championship
Tags: College Football SEC
Quick look at the historical betting results of the SEC Championship. Favorites have fared well at 9-2 straight up but they are only 6-5 against the spread. Auburn is currently a 2-point favorite over Missouri. This is only the second time since 2002 the title game has been lined at less than a field goal.
|SEC Championship Betting History 2002-12|
ALA 32, UGA 28
LSU 42, UGA 10
AUB 56, SC 17
ALA 32, FL 13
FL 31, ALA 20
LSU 21, TN 14
FL 38, ARK 28
UGA 34, LSU 14
AU 38, TN 28
LSU 34, UGA 13
UGA 30, ARK 3
Former Vegas gambling exec runs into trouble for playing at Pinnacle
Tags: Las Vegas
Because of his ties to Pinnacle Sports, former Golden Nugget owner Timothy Poster had his application to work in the gaming industry rejected
by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Funny that despite residing in Las Vegas, Poster placed bets at Pinny simply because its limits were higher.
Burnett told Poster, "I've heard you're a really good guy. I like you personally." But the board cannot ignore these violations.
Board member Terry Johnson said he could not approve the license because of "his associations with certain persons" and his online wagering with an illegal sports betting service.
Johnson said he had "trouble accepting that you (Poster) did not know it was an unlawful act."
Banks say no to New Jersey online gambling transactions
Tags: Las Vegas
New Jersey is in its second week of online gambling and as expected there are still a slew of issues
. Only 25% of gamblers trying to use TropicanaCasino.com have been verified due to glitches in the system. Then there is the problem of loading up money into an account. American Express and PayPal are reportedly not allowing any sort of gambling transactions.
“I would say a quarter are getting on,” Callender said yesterday, noting there’s a positive side to that: “We don’t have a situation where people who are outside the state are getting on.”
College Basketball Handicapping: Zone defense becoming a thing
Tags: College Basketball
According to one study
, college basketball are playing zone at a higher rate this season. One theory behind that is teams are looking to avoid picking up perimeter fouls or hiding players in foul trouble. It also could have to do with how many mismatches there are during non-conference play. It isn't however slowing down the pace of games. Last season only two teams (BYU and Northwestern State) averaged less than 15 seconds per offensive possession. This year 20 teams can lay claim to that including Michigan State, Purdue, and UCLA.
NBA Handicapping: League-wide pace slows slightly, scoring remains up
Tags: NBA Marty Otto
We’re now a couple weeks removed from when I first took a look at the pace of NBA play and it’s a good time to revisit and see how things are shaping up. Back in mid-November we had six teams playing at over 100 possessions per game:
LA Lakers (102.77)
Golden State (102.37
As it stands now only two teams can still boast that type of tempo as Philadelphia (102.07) and Minnesota (101.03) continue to run with reckless abandon. The other four teams have slowed down a bit and we can filter out their possession numbers since that last blog was posted.
LA Lakers (97.36)
Golden State (96.35)
The scoring, however, hasn’t seen a decrease league wide since we first looked at these numbers. Back in mid-November the average game had seen 198.5 points; an uptick from 2012’s season average of 195.9 points. Since the time of that blog game scoring has actually seen a small uptick to 198.9 points on average. To date overs are hitting 51.7% across the board compared to 2012 at 50.5%.
NFL Gambling Preview: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
|Submitted by ICC|Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints Ian Cameron Carolina at New Orleans
Sunday, 5:30 pm PT - NBC
New Orleans -3.5 O/U 44.5
New Orleans -3 (-120) O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New Orleans -3.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation:
Use Carolina in 6-pt teaser
This should be a terrific Sunday Night Football showcase as the Panthers and Saints battle with 1st place in the NFC South on the line.
New Orleans is clearly not a team I like betting against at home at a short price particularly off a brutal performance like they suffered in Seattle. The Saints are 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS at the Superdome however only one of those wins (San Francisco) came against a team of the Panthers’ caliber. The Saints only managed to beat the 49ers 23-20 on a last second FG as they didn’t sniff a lead by more than a touchdown throughout that entire game.
Carolina is 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games – the single hottest team in the NFL right now. They have notched quality wins against New England and San Francisco and should own a distinct edge in the trenches over the Saints. Carolina averages 129.3 ypg on the ground which ranks 9th in the NFL. They face a somewhat vulnerable Saints defensive front that got pushed around on both sides of the football by a very physical Seattle Seahawks team. Carolina’s recent run is in large part due to playing a very similar brand of smash mouth, hard-nosed football.
Carolina’s defense has been remarkable allowing just 13.1 points per game which is tops in the NFL. They have the 6th ranked pass defense and the 2nd ranked run defense. That terrific Carolina defense gets a very big weapon back this week as DE Charles Johnson returns after missing the last two games with a sprained right MCL. Johnson leads the Panthers with 8.5 sacks and will be a challenge for the Saints offensive line to contain. It’s worth pointing out that New Orleans was stuck overnight in Seattle and was forced to wait until Tuesday to depart for New Orleans. The Saints didn’t arrive back home until late afternoon which wiped out most of a day usually reserved for game planning. New Orleans already had the disadvantage of preparing for Carolina on a short week and now because of travel delays, it pushes the process of getting ready for this mammoth divisional showdown even further.
Overall, the game price seems right but using Carolina in a 6-point teaser has value (using +9.5 the preferred option). The Panthers have lost only one game by double-digits this season (at Arizona) due to four turnovers. I expect them to play a clean game in this spot and keep it competitive from start to finish.
College Basketball Betting Free Play: Boston College Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: College Basketball Boston College Eagles Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange
Boston College +4 at Purdue O/U 151.5
Recommendation: Boston College
Purdue hasn't done much of anything this year to be deserving of this price range for tonight's game against Boston College. The Boilermakers struggled against the likes of Northern Kentucky, Rider, Siena (twice), and also lost outright by 15 points to a bottom-tier Washington State squad. Head coach Matt Painter on his team's struggles: “I’ve never, as an assistant or a head coach, been with a team that can show such promise in one half and the other half lose their focus or not make winning basketball plays, not tough it out on a certain possession,” to this extent, Painter said. “It’s a hard thing, and it’s a positive that you show that you can be successful, but it’s also a negative in terms of when things don’t go your way, you’re not able to right the ship. You have to show more consistency.”
The reason for the inconsistency as well as last year's sub .500 finish is easy to pinpoint – Painter just doesn't have the talent he's accustoming to working with in West Lafayette.
Boston College meanwhile is probably disappointed to be 3-4 but the Eagles have shown far more ability than Purdue. BC lost its season opener at Providence in overtime. On one day rest wore down against a UMass squad that is playing as well as any team in the country. They then lost to a quality Toledo squad by three and fell by two to UConn who already has wins over Maryland, Indiana and Florida (albeit by very slim margins). Boston College was a very young team last year but still had three quality road wins (Penn State, Virginia Tech, and Clemson) and also tight losses by 4, 3, 5, and 3. They have a tendency to be outclassed at times by bigger, more athletic teams but I don't see Purdue being able to overwhelm them in that department. Also note that Boston College is currently the nation's top free throw shooting team at 84% while Purdue shoots only 65% – a huge edge given the current climate of college hoops.
There isn't a huge gap between these two squads but Boston College is the better of the two teams and has been far more challenged schedule-wise. I see them as a very live dog.
NBA Handicapper Free Play: Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers Teddy Covers Oklahoma City +2.5 at Portland O/U 205
Recommendation: Oklahoma City
Here’s the quote from Pacers head coach Frank Vogel, following Portland’s four-point win over Indiana on Monday: “They made big shots all game long. Hopefully that's what it's going to take to beat this team – making impossible shot after impossible shot."
Portland isn’t the best team in the Western Conference, and their 15-3 start to the season might well be their high point of the campaign. I’m not saying the Blazers are bad, but I am saying that this team isn’t going to hit contested jumpers to the tune of 105 points per game average for the entirety of the season. The Blazers have only one way to go from here, from a SU and ATS perspective, and that’s down!
Oklahoma City has come on like a freight train since their sluggish start to the season, reeling off eight straight wins (6-2 ATS) coming into tonight. That stretch includes victories over the likes of the Clippers, Spurs, Warriors, Nuggets and T-wolves – quality foes. They’ve absolutely dominated this series in recent years, winning each of the last seven meetings between these two squads (6-0-1 ATS in those games). Wrong team favored here!
T. Covers 10* NBA Offensive Outburst O/U [5-1 83% NBA O/U YTD] $20
Teddy hasn't released many totals so far this NBA season but when he has they've been nearly unstoppable. To date his NBA O/U reports are a sweet 5-1 83%. Grab this one for $20 and it's guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is free.
College Football Handicapping: Cold temps and rain expected for championship Saturday
Tags: College Football
It's gonna be cold (and rainy) this weekend, college football bettors!
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: 7 pm local, 27 degrees, chance of snow
UCF at SMU: 11 am local, 27 degrees, ice pellets
Texas at Baylor: 2:30 pm local, 29 degrees, ice pellets
Utah State at Fresno State: 7 pm local, 34 degrees, cloudy
Also note that while the temps are expected to be moderate, rain is in the forecast for the following games...
Stanford at Arizona State
UL-Lafayette at South Alabama
Duke vs. Florida State (in Charlotte)
Louisville at Cincinnati (Thursday)
Marshall at Rice
NBA Gambling: Let's all gather 'round and rewatch Toronto's collapse vs. Golden State
Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors Toronto Raptors
If you had a bet on Toronto last night this will probably sting a little. The Raptors jumped out to a 36-19 lead over the Warriors and led by that same margin at halftime with GS a 9-point favorite in the second half (adjusted +8). In the third quarter, Toronto led by as much as 27 and heading into the fourth remained up 88-70. Then the freakin’ wheels came off. The progression of Pinnacle's live wagering tells all you need to know about the total meltdown that took place. Golden State was at its peak +16, followed by +13.5, +12, +8, +3.5, -2.5, and finally -9. All told, the Warriors outscored the Raptors 42-15 in the fourth to not only win the game but also cover the closing game number of -8!
Sports Betting Podcast 12-4-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno, Ian Cameron, and Teddy Covers
|Tags: College Basketball NBA Rob Veno Ian Cameron Teddy Covers|
College Football Handicapping: USC offensive coordinator to coach bowl game
Tags: College Football USC Trojans PAC-12
USC announced that offensive coordinator Clay Helton
will coach the team in their bowl game. Former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian who was hired this week reportedly won't be involved in the team's preparation. The Trojans haven't won a postseason game since 2009. They are projected to play in the Las Vegas Bowl against the winner of the Mountain West Championship.
NBA Gambling News: Brooklyn's mess of a season continues
Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets
Another no-show for the Brooklyn Nets last night as they were smoked on their home court by Denver, 111-87. Now reports are out the head coach Jason Kidd and assistant Lawrence Frank apparently weren't on the same page
and Frank will now have a reduced role with the team. Looking ahead, Brooklyn's schedule is favorable (tough to say for a 5-13 team) with games against New York, Milwaukee, Boston, Detroit, Washington, and Philadelphia (twice).
"This is the decision that I had to make, and we made it and we move on," Kidd told reporters before the Nets were routed 111-87 at home by the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night. "This is my decision in the sense of what I had to do. It's about basketball. That's it."
"[We're] soul-searching here," Kevin Garnett said after the loss. "We were trying to figure out how to patch this thing up, how to get this thing together; there's a lot of moving parts to this. ... I don't think anyone around here is having fun, and losing is definitely not fun."
College Basketball Handicapping: Florida down to six healthy scholarship players
|Submitted by Brian Edwards|Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators
Florida senior PG Scottie Wilbekin is out indefinitely
with a high ankle sprain suffered in last night's buzzer-beating loss at UConn. With freshman PG Kasey Hill out for at least another two weeks, the Gators have only six healthy scholarship players and zero point guards. Obviously, that's not good with Kansas on deck a week from today at the O-Dome and then a date with Memphis (which just beat Oklahoma State) at Madison Square Garden.
Damontre Harris remains suspended and McDonald's All-American Chris Walker's status is still uncertain due to eligibility issues. UF did beat a pretty decent Middle Tennessee team by 20 without Wilbekin and Hill, as Michael Frazier II logged 36 minutes at the point. But Frazier isn't a natural PG, nor is Rutgers transfer Eli Carter (who remains out of shape due to a leg injury from last year that killed his off-season).
All that said, Hill will definitely be back before SEC play starts and I would think Wilbekin will be back by mid-to-late January in a worst-case scenario, probably sooner. So this isn't the kiss of death for UF's season, but it's yet another tough break for the immediate future.
NBA Handicapping: 76ers continue to play fast despite glaring deficiencies
Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers
If you're looking for a blueprint of how to trend over the total in the NBA, read this
. The Philadelphia 76ers are 13-5 O/U, play at the fastest pace in the league (102.8), and rank 26th in defensive efficiency (104.4).
"When you choose to play at a pace that we're trying to play at, the problems can really start there," Brown said following practice yesterday at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. "We turn it over a lot, and they run at us. We take quick, bad shots and they run at us. A lot of our transition defensive problems are coming from turnovers and quick, bad shots, because we're so adamant on playing at a speed. Somewhere out there, down the road now, there needs to be a better understanding for how you responsibly play that style of play. Then, when you just get into basic halfcourt defense, it's a whole other story about accountability, define a team, all those things. And me doing a better job coaching some rotations. But our defense is most definitely a problem, and I think some of that spins into the style of play that we've decided to play in regards of pace."
College Football Gambling: CRIS vs. Rob Veno's Power Ratings - Conference Championships
|Submitted by Rob Veno|Tags: College Football Rob Veno
Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno has been creating his own Power Ratings
for nearly two decades. His numbers are very well respected and an excellent tool for discovering value. Below is a chart of CRIS's current lines and Rob's College Football Power Ratings for this weekend's Conference Championships.
|2013 College Football CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Conference Championships|
Detroit - Ford Field
Northern Illinois -3
Northern Illinois -5.5
Houston - Rice Stadium
Atlanta - Georgia Dome
Charlotte - BoA Stadium
Florida State -29.5
Florida State -31
Tempe - Sun Devil Stadium
Arizona State -3
Arizona State -1
Indianapolis - Lucas Oil
Ohio State -5
Ohio State -4
Fresno - Bulldog Stadium
Fresno State -3.5
Fresno State -1.5
NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 14
Back in early May, Cantor Gaming posted lines on every NFL regular season game. We took those lines and stacked them up against the current market numbers at CRIS. It's a good handicapping tool to identify some of the changes in opinion the market has had over the course of the regular season.
|2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 14|
Kansas City -3
New England -8.5
NY Jets -6
NY Jets -2.5
New Orleans -3.5
New Orleans -3.5
Tampa Bay -3
Tampa Bay -2.5
San Diego pk
San Diego -3
San Francisco -2.5
Green Bay -3
Sports Betting Podcast 12-3-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow, Sammy P and Erin Rynning
|Tags: College Basketball NHL NBA Brent Crow Sammy P Erin Rynning|
College Football Betting: Florida State a massive favorite over underdog Duke
Tags: College Football Duke Blue Devils Florida State Seminoles ACC Duke vs. Florida State -29 O/U 61.5
It is safe to say that everyone associated with the Duke football program is aware of the pointspread for Saturday's ACC Championship
against No. 1 Florida State. To put that massive pointspread in perspective, earlier this season the Seminoles were laying -17 at home vs. Maryland and -21 vs. Miami – Duke beat the Hurricanes by 18 at home. But FSU is no stranger to winning by margin with only one game (48-34 win at Boston College) decided by less than four touchdowns.
"We know it's going to be a great challenge this Saturday playing the No. 1 team in the country, and we know nobody is going to give us a chance to win,'' Duke senior offensive guard Dave Harding said Monday. "That's business as usual for Duke football. We've been underdogs since the day I got here. We embrace that role.''
"In the back of our minds, we know people aren't giving us a chance,'' Cockrell said. "But we were picked to finish last in the ACC in the preseason, and we finished first. At the end of the day, we have guys in our locker room who believe in each other, and that has propelled us forward.
"It's motivation. But it's not the driving priority we've focused on.''
Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Seahawks trounce Saints
Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks New Orleans Saints Stat Intelligence Submitted by Stat Intelligence
These Seahawks are going to be tough to beat in January. Tonight’s dominating win over the Saints virtually locked up the #1 seed and home field advantage through the NFC brackets. That REALLY matters in Seattle.
And, I think it needs to start looming larger over the whole postseason discussion that Seattle is perfectly built for cold weather football. For the first time ever, the next Super Bowl will be played at a cold weather site at the Meadowlands. Tonight’s game was played in the 30’s with occasional drizzle. Quarterback Russell Wilson was sharp when throwing downfield. He was 22-30-0-302 against a decent defense in less-than-ideal throwing conditions!
Great defense…balanced potent offensive attack…capable of responding to any conditions or opponent. And, assuming they finish off grabbing the top spot…they’ll be well-rested and poised to peak at just the right time.
First things first…
Seattle 34 (-6.5), New Orleans 7
New Orleans: 188 yards, 3.4 per-play, 1 turnovers, 40% third downs
Seattle: 429 yards, 6.2 per-play, 0 turnovers, 50% third downs
Rushing Yards: New Orleans 44, Seattle 127
Passing Stats: New Orleans 23-38-0-144, Seattle 22-30-0-302
Drive Points: New Orleans 7, Seattle 27
Stat Score: New Orleans 10, Seattle 25
Sloppiness: New Orleans 20, Seattle 8
No mysteries here. The stats back up the blowout on the scoreboard. In fact, if you add the defensive TD to the stat score of 25-10…you get 32-10…which is almost right on the 34-7 final. Seattle CRUSHED the Saints across the board. The only weakness, to the degree there was one, was that the Seattle defense tended to get dumb penalties at bad times. Didn’t matter. But, it might in a closer game in the postseason. The passion and energy they bring to intimidating people could conceivably bite them. It’s a short list of things outside of key injuries that could conceivably bite them.
This team has had its eye on the prize since the first half of their Preseason home game against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Well, their intense focus probably started the minute they were eliminated from the playoffs last season. You get that sense from the coaches and players.
Seattle moves to 11-1, and owns tie-breakers over both New Orleans and Carolina in the race for the top spot in the conference. The Saints fall to 9-3, tied with the Panthers as those two teams get ready to resolve the NFC South with two meetings in the next three weeks.