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NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

09.21.2014     07:11 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Green Bay at Detroit 
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -1 O/U 52 
CRIS Current: Detroit -2 O/U 53 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit pk 
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Over

This NFC North matchup has all the makings of a shootout with two of the top quarterbacks in the game facing defenses that are middle-of-the-road at best. 

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 535 yards and four touchdowns in two games, with Jordy Nelson emerging as his favorite target. Nelson has 292 yards on 18 receptions with one score as he and Randall Cobb give Rodgers two dynamic weapons in the passing game.

On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford has tossed for 630 yards and three scores, with Calvin Johnson piling up the receiving numbers once again. Stafford has plenty of other options, including free agent wideout Golden Tate and the running back tandem of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush.

These offenses will take aim at a couple of defenses that have had some issues. Despite an all-star cast up front, the Lions are vulnerable in the secondary and Rodgers has historically lit them up. He is 9-1 in his career against the Lions with a 111.0 passer rating and 19 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. His only loss came in a game that he left with a concussion in the second quarter. Detroit’s defense has faced the Giants and Panthers so far, skewing their numbers favorably. Neither New York or Carolina possess the type of offense that Green Bay does, and the solid numbers they put up in the first two weeks will take a hit.

On the other hand, the Green Bay defense has not been good against Seattle or the Jets. Seattle hugn 36 points on the Pack and the Jets moved the ball well for most of the game. Green Bay is 31st in run defense and has allowed 353 yards in two games on the ground. Detroit can take advantage of the Packers on the ground, which will only set up the passing game and open things up for Stafford.

The pace of the game should be fairly quick, as Green Bay will run the no-huddle some to get its offense in rhythm. There is also plenty of players on the field with big play capabilities on both sides, so quick points can almost be assured of. Look for the offenses to dominate and this one to go over the total.

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Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions Brent Crow

NFL Gambling: Redskins sans Griffin III earn SuperContest top pick

09.21.2014     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 3 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. WASHINGTON +6.5 at Philadelphia 
2. INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 at Jacksonville 
3. NY GIANTS +2 vs. Houston 
4. CINCINNATI -6.5 vs. Tennessee 
5(t). BUFFALO -2.5 vs. San Diego 
5(t). DALLAS -1.5 at St. Louis

Least picked Sunday side: OAKLAND +14 at New England

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins

College Football Handicapping: 2nd half Kick Off List - Week 4

09.20.2014     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly

To help you with your wagers today, below is a list of teams that receive the kick to start the second half.

2014 College Football 2nd Half Kick Off List - Week 4
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd half kick
Penn State
Ball State
Ball State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan
Bowling Green
Wake Forest
Wake Forest
North Carolina
East Carolina
North Carolina
San Jose State
Eastern Michigan
Michigan State
Michigan State
South Carolina
South Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State
Georgia State
Georgia State
Appalachian State
Southern Miss
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Texas A&M
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Florida State
Florida State
Texas State
Texas State
Old Dominion
Florida International
Florida International
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH)
San Diego State
Oregon State
Oregon State
Mississippi State
Mississippi State
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois
Utah State
Arkansas State
Utah State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
New Mexico State
Miami (FL)
West Virginia
Boise State
Boise State

Tags: College Football

College Football Betting Consensus: Public dials up big chalk and overs for Week 4

09.20.2014     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top five consensus bets (sides and totals) for Saturday's college football games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

92.2% - TEXAS A&M -34 vs. SMU 
83.9% - MISSOURI -13 vs. Indiana 
81.7% - DUKE -17 vs. Tulane 
81.3% - OREGON -22.5 at Washington State 
81.0% - COLORADO -9 vs. Hawaii

89.2% - OVER 58.5 Georgia Southern-South Alabama 
85.7% - OVER 57 Idaho-Ohio 
85.2% - OVER 77.5 Oregon-Washington State 
83.9% - UNDER 59 Appalachian State-Southern Miss 
83.7% - OVER 65 Oklahoma-West Virginia

Tags: College Football

Sportsmemo's College Football In-Game Discussion - Week 4

09.20.2014     06:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Don't miss Sportsmemo's Posting Forum College Football Week 4 in-game discussion. The Sportsmemo Handicappers and posting forum members share their thoughts, opinions, and second half wagers throughout the day. If you're not a forum member, it's free to sign up! All you need is a username and password. Come be a part of the WINNING action!

Tags: College Football

College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers

09.19.2014     08:23 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Oklahoma at West Virginia 
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -12.5 O/U 62 
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -7.5 O/U 65 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma -14.5 
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Over

We have an interesting Big XII matchup in Morgantown on Saturday night with Oklahoma taking on West Virginia. The Sooners offense has been very hard to stop for any defense this season and the West Virginia suspect stop unit should have its hands full slowing them down. The Mountaineers yielded an alarming 37 points on 447 total yards at a 6.9 yards per play clip against Maryland and escaped with the 40-37 win. That is bad news facing Oklahoma's potent attack led by quarterback Trevor Knight. Knight has gotten off to a very strong start (860 yards passing) after his breakout performance in OU’s Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. The loss of starting running back Keith Ford (6 TDs) likely won’t have a significant impact with the likes of Samaje Perine and Alex Ross as quality backups.That said, it is logical that Knight and the passing game will be called on even more which of course is a benefit to over bettors.The Sooners will surely attack West Virginia’s secondary which will be without its top cornerback, Daryl Worley (17 tackles, 2 INTs), who was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. I don't see West Virginia forcing many punts in this contest.

Oklahoma's defense has looked strong but will take a step up class facing a capable offense on the road. WVU quarterback Clint Trickett has been sensational with a gaudy 75% completion rate, 1,224 passing yards, 9 yppa, and a terrific 7-1 TD-INT ratio. West Virginia won’t be able to line up and run the ball in between the tackles against a Sooners defense that is allowing only 2.71 ypc. So expect Trickett and the offense to attempt over 50 passes in this one which again, lends itself to bigger chunks of yards and clock stoppage. A perfect example of this was Week 1 against Alabama in which the Mountaineers gained only 28 yards on the ground but nearly 400 yards through the air.

Pace wise, we know West Virginia will do its best to run 80+ plays. Because of big leads, Oklahoma hasn’t been in a situation where it needed to push tempo for an entire 60 minutes. With this projected to be their most competitive game, I look for that to change. Barring multiple gaffes inside the red zone, this game has the potential to reach the 70’s.

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Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII

NFL Gambling Alert: Arizona's Stanton gets starting nod vs. San Francisco

09.19.2014     02:01 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Francisco -3 at Arizona O/U 42

Arizona announced that Drew Stanton will start again in place of Carson Palmer (shoulder) as the Cardinals play host to San Francisco. Stanton was 14-of-29 for 167 yards in last week's win at New York. The 49ers opened and remain 3-point road favorites.  

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers

NFL Betting Podcast 9-19-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

09.19.2014     11:31 AM     Printer Friendly


Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 3 Every Game on the Board coverage. Brent Crow and Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Brent Crow - NFL Game on the Board Part I

Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Brent Crow Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles

09.19.2014     08:53 AM     Paul Stone     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Paul Stone blog entry.
Clemson at Florida State 
Saturday, 5:15 pm PT - ABC 
CRIS Opener:
Florida State -19.5 O/U 66 
CRIS Current: Florida State -14.5 O/U 60 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida State -16 
Paul Stone's Recommendation: Clemson

Defending champion Florida State, at first glance, would appear to have only a handful of bumps on its path to a likely appearance in this year's four-team college football playoff.

One of those potential detours occurs Saturday when the Seminoles, who have had a pair of lukewarm performances in their first two games, host ACC rival Clemson at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Florida State was a 19.5-point favorite at mid-week before the school suspended Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston for the first half of Saturday's contest due to a vulgar outburst at a campus building in which he was apparently imitating a popular internet meme.

It was the latest in a series of judgment lapses by Winston which have unfortunately become the norm for the sophomore quarterback rather than the exception. On the field, however, the 6-4, 235-pound signal caller displays a game-day confidence and clutch demeanor which has few peers in the college game.

As of late Thursday afternoon, the line had dipped to 14.5 points at most offshore and Vegas shops.

Last year in a much-anticipated, overhyped October matchup, the Seminoles, who were ranked No. 5 at the time, went into third-ranked Clemson and dismantled and undressed the Tigers from the opening bell, ultimately posting a 51-14 victory which was probably more lopsided than the final score indicated.

Both teams, most notably Clemson, have changed considerably since last year's meeting.

Clemson lost a trio of talented skill players as three-year starting quarterback Tajh Boyd (who set more than 50 school records); tailback Roderick McDowell (1,025 yards rushing last year); and NFL first-round draft choice Sammy Watkins, who had 101 catches for 1,464 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013, moved on to the pro game.

Defensively, however, the Tigers return loads of talent, especially in the front seven, headed by All-America candidate Vic Beasley who had 13 sacks and 10 tackles for losses last season. 
Senior Cole Stoudt, who has waited in the wings for his opportunity, was named Clemson's starting quarterback during the summer, but the feeling is true freshman Deshaun Watson, an electrifying runner who has a little shake in his gait, will likely begin to get more snaps as the Tigers lack proven playmakers on offense.

Watson's increased offensive role could begin Saturday night in Tallahassee.

Some media types and handicappers possibly docked Clemson too heavily following its 45-21 season-opening loss at Georgia. For most of three quarters, the Tigers stood toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs before running out of gas down the stretch.

Clemson's a young, evolving football team at many positions and will improve as key personnel gain experience.

With Winston missing the game's first two quarters (Little-used sophomore Sean Maguire will get the start) and the Tigers still smarting from last season's home beat down, I'll recommend taking the visiting underdog and 14.5 points.

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Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers Florida State Seminoles ACC Paul Stone

College Football Betting: It doesn't get any uglier than UConn vs. South Florida

09.19.2014     08:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We're having trouble remembering a worse single-event college football game than tonight's UConn vs. South Florida matchup - and that includes those late season, early week MAC and Sun Belt affairs. In theory, someone has to be favored and the Bulls, at home, are the default chalk. But there aren't many teams with a worse track record as a favorite. Since its spreading covering win over Syracuse in November of 2011, USF is on a horrific 3-7 SU, 0-9-1 ATS slide as chalk. Two of those wins came against FBC competition. The lone FCS win, of course, came against UConn. Godspeed, bettors.

Tags: College Football South Florida Bulls UConn Huskies AAC

NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices Week 3

09.19.2014     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Link to's Elo Ratings and spreads for NFL Week 3. Some of the biggest discrepancies include...

Houston at NY Giants 
Market: Houston -2 
ELO: NY Giants -3

Minnesota at New Orleans 
Market: New Orleans -9.5 
ELO: New Orleans -5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 
Market: Indianapolis -7 
ELO: Indianapolis -5

San Francisco at Arizona 
Market: San Francisco -3 
ELO: Arizona -0.5

Pittsburgh at Carolina 
Market: Carolina -3 
ELO: Carolina -6

Tags: NFL

College Football Gambling: Iowa's offense stuck in the mud

09.19.2014     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Iowa at Pittsburgh -7 O/U 47

As Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning mentioned on Wednesday's podcast, "Iowa football is 2.9 yards and a cloud of dust." Rynning was referring to Iowa's yards per carry in last week's 20-17 loss to Iowa State. Under Kirk Ferentz, the offense has always been pedestrian but through three games, Iowa is taking it to a whole new level. Against Northern Iowa, Ball State, and Iowa State, the Hawkeyes recorded only five plays from scrimmage longer than 20 yards. Only Eastern Michigan has posted fewer (3) out of teams that have played three games. And as mentioned in this article, Iowa returned virtually its entire offense and OC Greg Davis is in his third year. Things don't get easier this weekend against Pittsburgh. Out of teams that have played three games, the Panthers have allowed only 22 plays of 10+ yards. Only Baylor, Stanford, and LSU have better marks.

“Greg is an outstanding teacher. He’s an outstanding human being. He’s a solid person,” Ferentz said. “But if you’re in it long enough, you’re going to get your tail kicked. That’s just the way it goes. That’s part of the deal. If you can’t deal with it, you probably have to do something else.”

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Erin Rynning

New Jersey offers profits to leagues to help combat point shaving

09.19.2014     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New Jersey has proposed that a small fraction of the revenue generated from sports betting go towards the "fight" against match fixing/point shaving.

“This could be a national model for sports betting,” they wrote. “When sports wagering is eventually legalized nationwide, this surcharge would generate millions of dollars a year for the leagues. Given your openness to sports betting, we hope that the NBA and other sports leagues can come to an agreement with casino and racetrack operators on the collection and distribution of this surcharge.”

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Erin Rynning

Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Auburn, Atlanta, and the OVER

09.18.2014     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (sides and totals) for tonight's two football game courtesy of Bookmaker. On the college front, Auburn heads to Manhattan to take on Kansas State. The home underdog Wildcats saw a fair amount of market support this afternoon with the line now down to a touchdown at most offshore books. In the NFL, Atlanta plays host to Tampa Bay. Over pressure has the total up from 45 to 46.5/47. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

71.7% - Atlanta -6.5 
63.5% - Auburn -7

75.7% - OVER 47 Tampa Bay-Atlanta 
75.6% - OVER 63.5 Auburn-Kansas State

Tags: College Football NFL Auburn Tigers SEC Kansas State Wildcats Big XII Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons

NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

09.18.2014     01:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Denver at Seattle 
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5 
CRIS Current: Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -6 
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

We all remember what happened when these two teams met in the Super Bowl; a game that was arguably decided on the very first play from scrimmage – a bad snap safety for the Broncos.  And we all know how strong the Seahawks home field has been in recent years.  Seattle’s 20 point win over Green Bay in their opener was just the tip of the iceberg.   They’ve beaten plenty of other elite teams on this field over the last few years, including wins by 26 and 29 points over San Francisco, by 27 over New Orleans, and by 58 over Arizona as part of their truly impressive 13-4 ATS run in the regular season on this field since the start of the 2012 campaign.

The question here is ‘What’s likely to be different this time around?"   My answer to that starts with the offenses for both of these teams.  Seattle’s offense is much better than it was last year.  Denver’s offense isn’t, but the Broncos certainly are capable of enjoying more success this Sunday than they did on Super Bowl Sunday, especially with the early weather reports showing a mild, sunny day, in sharp contrast to the weather in New Jersey last February.

Let me start with the Seahawks part of the equation.  Percy Harvin is healthy and making big plays on a weekly basis.  Marshawn Lynch is fresh, especially after only getting six carries in their loss at San Diego last week.  Russell Wilson’s confidence is sky high, throwing four TD’s without an INT so far this year, while completing 68% of his throws in each of their first two games.. Last year’s banged up offensive line has transformed into a relatively healthy unit in 2014.  And a Seahawks squad that closed out last year on a 7-0 run to the Under prior to the Super Bowl is now 2-0 to the Over this year, a harbinger of things to come.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos offensive line both had miserable performances in the Super Bowl.  Much of that was circumstantial.  Manning is not the same QB in cold weather.  Denver was unprepared for the crowd noise, and they are most assuredly a ‘rhythm’ offense, not a team that benefitted from the extra week of prep time.  We’re talking about an elite level NFL offense with a Hall of Fame QB and multiple pro bowl caliber receivers; a team that spent a decent portion of this past offseason focused on this very game. 

I’m not expecting John Fox to get outcoached quite so badly here.  And with Seattle’s defense showing a repeated inability to get off the field on third downs – ranked dead last in the NFL with 55% conversions allowed thusfar – the Broncos are poised to score alot more than eight points this time around!   Take the Over.

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Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 9-18-2014

09.18.2014     10:53 AM     Printer Friendly


Here's our Week 4 College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Handicappers Paul Stone, Teddy Covers, and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board

Paul Stone - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I

Teddy Covers - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II

Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: College Football Paul Stone Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Idaho Vandals at Ohio Bobcats

09.18.2014     09:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Idaho at Ohio 
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN3 
CRIS Opener:
Ohio -13 O/U 54 
CRIS Current: Ohio -14 O/U 55.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio -14 
Drew Martin's Recommendation: Idaho

The Ohio Bobcats will host the Idaho Vandals in their home opener on Saturday night. Idaho, led by a freshman quarterback, will travel over 2,000 miles to Athens, Ohio. The Vandals have lost 32 of their last 38 football games and they take on a Bobcats squad who has made five straight bowl appearances. Just glancing at this non-conference matchup you would most likely think it’s a mismatch, however as we uncover more about each of these teams you may be surprised.

Frank Solich is in his tenth year as the Bobcats head coach. The Ohio native took over a program which only had two winning seasons in the last twenty-two years. He has led the Bobcats to five straight bowl games and has retained his offensive and defensive coordinators the last nine years. Despite all of Solich’s accomplishments the program has been in a steady decline the last three years. From last year’s team Solich lost Tyler Tettleton to graduation; Tettleton is Ohio’s all-time leading passer. Losing Tettleton and seven other starters off of last year’s offensive unit, has had a major impact on this year’s offensive production. The Bobcats have struggled in each of the first three games this year averaging only 11.3 points per game.

Idaho will leave the Gem State for the third time this season, although they will only be playing their second game outside of the Kibby Dome because their season opener against Florida was cancelled due to weather. The Vandals second year head coach Paul Petrino (brother of Bobby Petrino) will be starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback, Matt Linehan; son of Scott Linehan who is currently the passing game coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. Idaho certainly doesn't have two losses because of the effort of their quarterback, who has been shining in his first two starts with the team. So far on the season, Linehan has 686 yards passing with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has a 60.2 completion percentage, completing 53 of 88 passes. He is behind an offensive line who returns nine of their top 10 from last year’s team. His favorite target last game was quarterback turned receiver Joshua McCain who brought down seven catches for 128 yards and one touchdown.

In my opinion the betting markets are slow in reacting to the improvement that the Vandals have shown this year. I also feel the oddsmakers are slow in downgrading this Ohio team. Couple that with the trouble the Bobcats have had offensively and having to win by more than two touchdowns is just too much to ask from a team averaging less than 12 points per game.

Tags: College Football Idaho Vandals Ohio Bobcats Drew Martin

College Footbal Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels at East Carolina Pirates

09.18.2014     07:22 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
North Carolina at East Carolina 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN 
CRIS Opener:
East Carolina -1 O/U 64 
CRIS Current: East Carolina -2.5 O/U 66.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: East Carolina -0.5 
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Under

Multiple situational angles favor of North Carolina as it heads to East Carolina: Revenge from last year’s 55-31 home embarrassment, an extra week to prepare, and ECU in a potential letdown spot after last week’s road upset (+9.5) of Virginia Tech. Put it all together and it should warrant a play on the Tar Heels. However, on field results through the first three weeks combined with strength of schedule clearly point in the direction of the 2-1 Pirates who are off back-back strong performances vs. top 25 teams.    

Entering this one off of a bye week would seemingly give North Carolina enough time to fix its early season problems which most notably exist on the defensive side of the ball. The 509 total yard disastrous performance by the defense against San Diego State two weeks ago wound up being a victorious one only because of the Aztecs inept play execution on 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard line. The blame for the game closing endzone interception could be laid on head coach Rocky Long or quarterback Quinn Kaehler, but either way it was more their fault for not finishing the potential come from behind drive than the play of the UNC defense which could not stop them. This East Carolina offense posed a significant challenge to the Tar Heels in last year’s game carving them up for 603 yards (227 rushing, 376 passing) and they’re just as potent this time around. Larry Fedora said this week that the 2014 edition of the Pirates is the best ECU team he's faced in the last seven seasons.

While East Carolina’s Air Raid offense presents a difficult matchup for North Carolina, they too have shown defensive issues that could be exploited. The Tar Heel offense is loaded with skill position talent and game breaking threats so the fact that ECU has allowed 52 first downs, 46.9% 3rd down conversions, and an average of 415 yards the past two games creates opportunity for North Carolina. Quarterback Marquise Williams is a true dual threat with size which is a threat East Carolina has not encountered yet this season and they did not see him in last season’s game where pocket passer Bryn Renner was at the controls.

This is an interesting handicap because of the multiple strong situations favoring North Carolina and the eye test which early on goes to ECU. There are a couple of significant personnel spots which could be determining factors in this game. First off, North Carolina will be without their most veteran offensive lineman, Landon Turner, and he’ll be replaced by true freshman Jared Cohen which makes an already youthful o-line even more so. Secondly, the ascension of ECU receiver Cam Worthy to team with NFL prospect Justin Hardy makes the Pirates receiving corps incredibly tough to defend. At 6-3, 220 pounds he has size and speed advantages versus any man coverage UNC uses on him. Last week against a far tougher Virginia Tech secondary, he had 6 catches for 224 of the team’s 447 passing yards. This game is difficult to handicap and subsequently bet with any strong conviction so for this selection I’m going to defer to a philosophy that I’ve used for some 23 years now. Head coaches work during practice weeks to fix their team’s problems and the problems here are not on the offensive side of the ball. Look for the defenses to perform better than they have thus far this season and with the total on this game continuing to rise, a small play on the under will be the recommendation here.

Follow me on Twitter @robvenosports

Tags: College Football North Carolina Tar Heels ACC East Carolina Pirates C-USA Rob Veno

College Football Gambling Update: Oddsmakers adjust to Winston's suspension

09.17.2014     02:49 PM     Printer Friendly


Update: CRIS reopened Florida State as a 17.5-point favorite. Some offshore shops, including CRIS, moved down to -16.5. The game's total is down from 66 to 60.5.

College Football Gambling Alert: FSU's Winston suspended for first half vs. Clemson

09.17.2014     09:44 AM     View Original Blog
Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston will sit the first half of Saturday's game vs. Clemson due to him being completely unaware that everything he says and does will be posted on Deadspin. Sportsbooks took the game off the board. The Seminoles were -19.5 prior to the announcement.

Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Clemson Tigers ACC

College Football Betting Podcast 9-17-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

09.17.2014     11:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wedneday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning. Brent, Erin, and host Andrew Lange talked SEC and Big Ten.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Brent Crow - SEC Report

Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football SEC Big Ten Brent Crow Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

College Football Gambling Alert: FSU's Winston suspended for first half vs. Clemson

09.17.2014     09:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston will sit the first half of Saturday's game vs. Clemson due to him being completely unaware that everything he says and does will be posted on Deadspin. Sportsbooks took the game off the board. The Seminoles were -19.5 prior to the announcement.

Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Clemson Tigers ACC

College Football Betting Preveiw: Indiana Hoosiers at Missouri Tigers

09.17.2014     09:34 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Indiana at Missouri  
Saturday, 3 pm PT - SEC 
CRIS Opener:
Missouri -15 O/U 72 
CRIS Current: Missouri -13.5 O/U 73.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Missouri -16.5 
OTTO Sports' Recommendation: Indiana

Leery that Missouri wouldn't come close to matching last year's magical season, bettors came into the season looking to fade the Tigers. They got bit in Week 2 as Mizzou blew out Toledo on the road and then last week racked up a commanding 38-10 win over a solid UCF squad. The Tigers have been a bit fortunate with a +6 turnover margin and two non-offensive touchdowns through three games, but based on what I've seen, the predicted drop-off may not be nearly as dramatic.

Despite 582 total yards and 235 yards on the ground, Indiana still isn't ready for the role of a favorite as the Hoosiers lost at Bowling Green, 45-42, last week. Things haven't changed much in Bloomington with the Hoosiers more than capable on offense and severely lacking on defense. And that presents a problem against Missouri which while not top-tier defensively, won't allow IU to roll up and down the field at will.

In last year's meeting, Missouri (only -3!) took care of Indiana, 45-28. The box score played out as such as well with Mizzou outgaining IU 623-475. The question now becomes pointspread value. Yes, Missouri was laying only -3 but that was well before they were established as an SEC contender. If these two teams had played at the end of the season we would have likely seen Missouri laying at least two touchdowns in a neutral setting. Here they are laying less than two touchdowns at home which indicates the markets A., think Indiana is improved and/or B., Missouri is down a tick. The spot to me points towards Indiana with Missouri having a big showdown at South Carolina on deck and no doubt confident after last year's blowout win in Bloomington and a 3-0 start to the season. The problem though is we're just not getting a good enough price on the road dog to make it a strong play. Bettors took out +15 and +14 leaving us with a current market number of +13.5. Should there be any buy-back, I'd side with Indiana at the key number of +14.

Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten Missouri Tigers SEC OTTO Sports

College Football Betting Preview: Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide

09.17.2014     09:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Florida at Alabama 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -15.5 O/U 53.5 
CRIS Current: Alabama -14.5 O/U 51.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -18 
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Alabama

Alabama and Florida hook up for the first time since 2011 when the Crimson Tide waltzed into Gainesville and came away with a dominating 38-10 victory. Alabama was tested in Week 1 vs. West Virginia but is rested and ready after back-to-back blowout wins. Florida meanwhile got all it could handle against an improved Kentucky squad, needing overtime to escape with a 36-30 win.

This issue for Florida in this game is what approach to take offensively. They want to play fast, they want to spread things out, they want to hit on big plays. But with a suspect offensive line on the road against a top-tier defense you're faced with the likelihood of a lot of quick three-and-outs and more possessions for the Crimson Tide offense. On the flip side, we've seen Alabama struggle at times against up-tempo spread offenses with losses to Auburn, Oklahoma, and a near loss to Texas A&M a season ago. And in Week 1, West Virginia gave the Crimson Tide issues with nearly 400 yards through the air. The problem is those four offenses are far more established than Florida which again is in the infant stages of transitioning from slow paced and conventional to high octane.

What Florida needs to hang in this game is a stellar defense showing something they are capable of producing. Going back to last year, in step up games against LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina all away from Gainesville the Gators allowed less than 20 ppg. So the potential is there to slip under the number should this become a low scoring affair. But I can't help but feel that the increased tempo and "greenness" with the offense isn't the ideal formula in this situation. Side and total appear correlated but the preferred side is the stability of Alabama at a rather modest home price.

Tags: College Football Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling News: Eagles cover vs. Colts cost bettor $100K

09.17.2014     07:33 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Our first big football parlay near-miss of the season! A bettor from Delaware spent $5 on a 15-team parlay (against the spread!) and had the Colts over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Had the Colts covered, he would have taken home $100K. Damn you, Chip Kelly.

"Honestly, we were rooting for the guy, starting with Sunday night's game," Delaware Lottery director Vernon Kirk said. "Our risk manager told us Sunday night that only one person had hit 14 games and needed the Bears and Colts.

"It definitely looked like Delaware had a winner when the Colts were up 14 midway through the third quarter," Kirk added. "Then to have the Eagles rally like that -- and to win in the last three seconds of the game -- it was agonizing to watch when you knew one player was so close to such a big payout."

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Indianapolis Colts

College Football Betting: Have bettors overreacted on California and West Virginia?

09.17.2014     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Every college football season there are a handful of teams that take massive jumps in the eyes of bettors after tepid preseason expectations and solid play the first few weeks of the regular season. Two teams that comes to mind are West Virginia and California. The Mountaineers were lined in the neighborhood of 4.5 over/under wins and looked to be headed in the wrong direction under Dana Holgorsen. They instead opened the season with a competitive showing and pointspread cover against Alabama (33-23). Against Towson, WVU was laying -24.5 and rolled to a 54-0 win. And then last week, catching +3.5/+3 on the road, beat Maryland 40-37. This week, West Virginia plays host to Oklahoma. The Golden Nugget originally lined the Sooners as 17-point chalk. On Sunday, CRIS opened the game -12.5 and it has since been bet down to as low as -7. Rob Veno's Power Rating makes and adjustment towards WVU but not nearly as much with Oklahoma -14.5.

Similar situation with Cal who opened the year with an outright win at Northwestern. They followed it up with a 55-14 win over Sacramento State as 27-point chalk. There was no Golden Nugget GOY line on this week's matchup at Arizona but based on last year's line (Arizona -14 in Berkley) and even accounting for an improvement from Cal, we could have expected a similar price. Instead, Arizona opened -12.5 and was bet down to -9. Rob's Power Rating actually came out spot on with the opener of -12.5.

Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII California Golden Bears PAC-12

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