MLB Handicapper Free Play: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Submitted by Drew Martin
Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers Drew Martin
Atlanta (Teheran) +220 at Los Angeles (Kershaw)
The Braves look to even up the series with the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine tonight as they face the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. If this pitching matchup was in either of the past two years it would be one of the most hyped pitching duels of the season. Instead we get a 2-3 Kershaw sporting an ERA north of 4.00 taking on the Braves ace Julio Tehran with a FIP currently at 4.96. The Dodgers are a MLB best 20-6 at home this season and are sending the reigning Cy Young award winner to the hill tonight, thus commanding the -240 price tag. Until last night’s 8th inning which featured three home runs, the Dodgers had been in a bit of an offensive lull the six games prior, posting a record of 2-4 and averaging 1.17 runs per game. In Kershaw’s last three outings the advanced metrics have not been pretty, allowing a line drive rate above 25% in all three games, topping out in his last start yielding a 38% vs. the Giants. Tehran did not have the best start to the season but has since found his rhythm in each of his last two starts posting a 1.59 ERA and a 1.29 ERA. Tehran is a fastball/changeup pitcher that has seen his SIERA below 3.00 in both of his last two starts. One of the main reasons Tehran is more comfortable on the mound is his splits with who is behind the plate. When the Braves current starting catcher A.J. Pierzynski is paired with Tehran, he has an ERA north of seven. When the backup catcher Christian Bethancourt is catching Tehran he has a 2.52 ERA and an opponents’ OPS under 700. Bethancourt who is from Panama which borders Tehran’s home country of Columbia may add a bit of stability and familiarity for Tehran, which the betting markets have not picked up on. The Braves at +220 are worth a shot.
MLB Betting Podcast 5-26-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning
Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Erin Rynning Andrew Lange
MLB Gambling Trends: High totals at Wrigley continue to cash unders
Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Washington Nationals
Some food for thought with wind-blowing-out totals at Wrigley Field. At the start of the 2010 season, totals of 10 or higher cashed 10 straight overs. But since then -- particularly the last two-plus seasons -- it's been an under bettors' dream. After the 10-0 O/U run, totals at Wrigley of 10 or higher are 14-30 O/U. Since 2013 they are 3-10 O/U. And this season all three double-digit totals have gone under. Note that those three games weren't even close with only 4.7 runs per game. Tonight's total opened 10.5 but was bet down to 10. Game time temps are expected to be in the mid-70's with the wind blowing out to center 10-15 mph.
Mayweather crushing the NBA
Tags: Floyd Mayweather
MLB Handicapping: Cincinnati Reds continue to stink up the joint
Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies
The Cincinnati Reds enter tonight's game vs. Colorado on an 8-game losing streak; something head coach Bryan Price isn't pleased about
. They're getting some play in the betting markets with the price now -120 after opening -110.
"We saved our very worst when we needed our best," Price said. "It was the worst game of the series, the worst game of the road trip, the worst game of the season. We needed a good game and we didn't show up today. I apologize for anybody that drove up from Cincinnati to come out and watch us play because this was brutal.
"That was brutal. We're all brutal right now."
Basketball coach accused of betting against his own team
Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies
Nothing beats a good match fixing story
, especially when it involves the Korean Basketball League. A head coach was reportedly floated a large line of credit and cashed in big betting against his own team.
Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors discuss potential impact of new PAT rule
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas
The NFL has evolved into the most popular sport for both fans and bettors over the last half century in part because of it’s unpredictability. The old saying attributed to NFL Commissioner Bert Bell (1945-1959), ‘On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team' has proven true over the years, even in the modern era.
In September alone last year, the Dolphins upset the Patriots, the Titans won at Kansas City, the Chargers beat the Seahawks, the Bears beat the 49ers, the Bucs beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs whipped the Patriots. Each and every one of those games was a significant upset both SU and ATS.
Fans and bettors alike are quite comfortable watching a two-foot putt in golf, or free throw attempts in the NBA; not exactly the most exciting plays that either sport has to offer. The NFL has boring plays as well, most notably the extra point try. NFL teams made their extra points more than 99% of the time last year, not exactly the essence of drama.
The league, in their infinite wisdom, just decided that the NFL extra point try was too boring. Instead of doing it the way it’s always been done, last week the rules committee approved a significant change for 2015. Two point conversion attempts will still come from the two-yard line but tacking on a single point after a touchdown now requires a made field goal from the 15-yard line; a 33-yard attempt.
Fans weren’t clamoring for change – this is all about the league trying to be proactive, making an exciting and dramatic game that much more exciting and dramatic. And, in a flurry of emails from longtime Tuesday Group members – a group of veteran wiseguy sportsbettors that meets every Tuesday during football season – my colleagues don’t seem very happy about the change.
I’ll start with an extended excerpt from an email sent by legendary NFL totals betting expert ‘Charlie J’, reprinted with his permission:
“One of the first factors I use when betting a total is making sure that I capture a “key number” on my play. For example, the difference between betting a total with options of 42.0 and 42.5 is virtually negligible. However, the difference between 42.5 and 43.0 is huge (for the past 5 years, the probability of a score landing on 43 is three times more likely than landing on 42). Since there will be more missed extra points and more 2 point attempts, the key numbers using 3’s and 7’s will be diminished and capturing key numbers will not be as significant as seasons past.
“Off the top of my head, I am trying to filter out what parameters will be affected with the new scoring rules. Obviously, I cannot handicap a defensive 2 point score on a failed attempt when making my numbers…We may witness coaching strategies that will be different from previous years. For example, if a team scores a late 4th quarter touchdown to take a 9 or 10 point lead, a prudent coach would tell his QB or kicker to take a knee (to avoid a 2 point defensive score).”
Another longtime handicapper, the ‘Eight of Clubs’ had this to say: “Although Charlie is coming from a totals perspective these rule changes have a major impact on the sides as well. No longer can the number 9 be considered a totally dead number. And it seems to me that the advantages of buying points will be equally diminished, as the odds of games landing on key numbers such as 3 or 7 will be reduced (food for thought when contemplating teasers as well).”
Rule changes, in general, are a mixed bag for bettors. On the one hand, it makes database research and long term trends and angles – both legitimate tools in any serious bettor’s repertoire – much less valuable. When the rules change, past data loses validity in the current marketplace, plain and simple. Look no further than last year, when wiseguys relied on some long term sample sizes for Week 1 NFL totals, then got crushed betting Unders.
Historically, betting Week 1 Unders (particularly for higher totals; 45 and above) has been a strong moneymaker. But with the offseason rules changes limiting cornerback contact with potential pass catchers last year, even elite defenses were affected. Totals lined at 45 or higher went 6-3 to the Over in Week 1 of the 2014 campaign. Sharp bettors who relied on database research and trends got beaten up in the process.
That being said, bettors who are able to adjust quickly to take advantage of emerging trends don’t necessarily mind rule changes. After all, rule changes put other bettors at a competitive disadvantage. Any bettor who is doing his homework on a daily basis and ‘going with the flow’ of the modern marketplace is going to find all kinds of key tidbits that result in positive expectation wagering opportunities.
And good information remains key even after a rule change; particularly when it comes to pace ratings and totals. Bettors that scour local sources for strong information are likely to do well when it comes to making bets on teams that have (relatively quietly) changed strategies in one way or another.
But this particular rule change isn’t about one team changing their strategies – it’s a quantum shift in what final scores are going to look like. Sharp bettors always understood the value of the key NFL numbers better than the average Joe – it’s worth driving across town in the Las Vegas traffic to find a -3 (-120) when the rest of the market has already moved to -3.5, for example. And Charlie J’s email mentioned key numbers when it comes to totals as well.
The NFL is pretty tough to beat. Lines are tight, with more money wagered on the NFL than any other sport here in Nevada, by a fairly wide margin. Even experienced, successful handicappers have subpar years in a sport where the margin between victory and defeat are often razor thin – an inch on a fourth down try; a fingertip deflecting a pass resulting in a game changing pick six; a toe on the endline forcing a field goal attempt instead of a touchdown. The new rule change is likely to make it even tougher, adding an extra element of randomness and unpredictability to the proceedings while making the key numbers that wiseguys covet a good notch or two less valuable.
Folow me on Twitter @teddy_covers.
Sportsmemo's Memorial Day Blowout: Daily Plays Discounted to $10
Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas
MLB Handicapping: Red Sox pitchers improve under Willis' watch
Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox
Don't get carried away but since Boston brought in new pitching coach Carl Willis, the staff as a whole has enjoyed a decent amount of improvement
. There's was really no where to go but up but in 15 games under Willis’ watch, the staff ERA is 3.57. Prior to that it was around 5.00. One of the biggest upswings has been Wade Miley who over his last three outings has allowed only three runs. Similar situation with today's starter, Joe Kelly, who coughed up five rf more runs in four straight games but has since buckled down with back-to-back quality starts.
"He's trying to get his arms around the bigger picture with each individual guy," said Red Sox manager John Farrell. "He's about making gradual changes and sudden changes, not to come in like he's the white knight and he's just going to make immediate changes with everyone. I think you risk losing credibility with an individual if you do that. He's establishing relationships."
"It then becomes a question of what's going on here [with inconsistent results], and we talked a little bit about effort level, the fact that he doesn't have to try to throw every pitch 100 [mph]. If he can repeat the rhythm and tempo of his delivery, it's probably going to be 96 or 97, which is pretty good. And when he wants to go back and get more, he can do that and sacrifice a little bit of command. He did that the other night. He pitched 94-97, and the third time through the order, the breaking pitches started to come into effect."
MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tags: MLB New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange
New York (Harvey) at Pittsburgh (Burnett) -110 O/U 6.5
We'll continue to get involved with New York Mets ace Matt Harvey as today we take a look at the under for his start against Pittsburgh. Last week I mentioned that Harvey was using his slider more now that he's built up strength from last year's arm injury. Over his last two outings he's used his slider more than 22% of the time and absolutely dominated the opposition with 15 innings of scoreless baseball and 19 strikeouts. He should be good to go against a Pirates team that out of 15 National League teams ranks 12th in runs scored and 13th in slugging. The Mets may also be walking into a buzzsaw as AJ Burnett continues to churn out upper-tier numbers. He's yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start and while his path thus far (1.38 ERA) is unsustainable, at home, against light-hitting New York, I project another quality performance. After storming out of the gates, the Mets have come back down to earth with a 9-11 record in May. The pitching remains solid but offensively, not so much, with really poor .230/.291/.349/.639 splits this month. Wind not expected to be a factor and game time temps in the low 70s. Runs should be tough to come by as we play under the total.
MLB Betting Podcast 5-22-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Rob Veno
Tags: MLB Rob Veno Erin Rynning Andrew Lange
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox
Submitted by ICC
Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Ian Cameron
Minnesota (Hughes) +110 at Chicago (Samardzija) O/U 7.5
My clients and I cashed an underdog winner earlier this week with the Minnesota Twins and I’m more than willing to come right back and endorse them tonight. There is something to be said about momentum in baseball and the Minnesota Twins have it right now after winning 14 of their last 19 games. As for tonight’s two starters, I don’t see a whole lot of difference between Phil Hughes and Jeff Samardzija. Both have had ups and downs and battled inconsistency however Hughes is at least feeling some positive momentum having gone 7 innings while yielding only 2 runs on 5 hits against Tampa Bay his last time out. Hughes allowed just 3 runs in 6 innings in his prior start against the White Sox and his overall numbers when facing the current White Sox roster are solid as he’s allowed a collective .250 batting average. Hughes once again shows a sparkling 35-5 K-to-BB ratio. His biggest knock is the 10 home runs allowed in 51 IP but he should be aided by what expects to be cooler temps and a slight wind in front left field. On the flip side, the Chicago White Sox have lost three straight after having their 6-game winning streak snapped by Cleveland. Samardzija is supposed to be the team’s ace or at least co-ace with Chris Sale but he hasn’t pitched like it. He’s allowed 4+ runs in half of his starts including his prior outing against Minnesota having allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings. His 7.56 career ERA against the Twins is also not very pretty. Minnesota is 9th in the Majors in runs scored while Chicago is just 29th ahead of lowly Philadelphia so I give the Twins the edge offensively and their solid bullpen should be rested and ready for tonight’s game after an off day on Thursday.
Will sports betting change if regulated?
Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Ian Cameron
Detailed article courtesy of ESPN
about the current climate of sports betting. With regulation comes talk about match fixing and point shaving. Some folks are hopeful that if it becomes legal in the U.S. there will be a decline (or at least not an increase) in the already rare cases of point shaving. We've discussed this multiple times in the past -- even with nationwide legalized sports betting the unregulated offshore/offscreen world will still thrive. And with that, there's the potential to fix games and not be detected. Las Vegas raves about it's ability to "police" irregular line moves. But people who attempt to fix games aren't rushing down to Stations Casino with a duffle bag full of money. They are doing so undetected at countless offscreen sportsbooks across the world so as to not cause any red flags. In the end, regulation is a good thing in that it'll provide your average bettor with access to a safe outlet to gamble. But to a lot of bettors playing at 5Dimes or with a local that provides you a credit account and an offscreen sportsbook remains far more attractive than using your Visa card to play at a regulated sportsbook in New Jersey.
"If the U.S. wants to avoid the European experience, it must first regulate or, at the very least, nationally recognize the reality of global sport betting," Eaton said. "As U.S. sports internationalize, they need to realize that they are entering a vulnerable sport betting market at the same time. U.S. sports must avoid repeating the European error of thinking they can protect themselves at home, while remaining a target abroad."
"Eastern European and Southeast Asian betting fraudsters have driven European soccer into the danger zone," Chris Eaton, a global sports security expert who has worked with INTERPOL and FIFA, said. "The USA very much holds the key to saving international sport from complete loss of credibility."
NBA Gambling: Atlanta Hawks bet up to -2.5 for tonight's Game 2
Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers
Lot of action going on in the betting markets for tonight's Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Cavaliers won Game 1, Game 2 opened a pick 'em at CRIS. Pinnacle took immediate money on the Cavs as they jumped to -1.5. But since then, we've seen nothing but Atlanta money with the Hawks now favored by -2.5 at most offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks. If you prefer the Cleveland side we recommend jumping in now as we expect some buy-back and the game to close Atlanta -1 to -2.
NFL Handicapping: Week 1 lines are up but no one's betting...yet
Two weeks ago, CRIS posted lines on every Week 1 NFL game -- not the first sportsbook it do so but arguably the most important. Betting on the NFL is really popular -- way more so that the current lineup of MLB, NBA and NHL Playoffs and Arena Football. And despite providing bettors with a 3+ month head start, there has been literally no movement in the betting markets. Sure, the limits are reduced and a lot of teams still have various questions regarding personnel. But unlike college football, everyone has a pretty good understanding of who's going to take the field in Week 1. Yet, of the 16 lines games, not one has moved off of a key number both side and total -- we're not counting the Tom Brady fiasco. There are currently nine games sitting on 2.5, 3, and 6 -- numbers that typically lend themselves to opinion. And while CRIS obviously knows what they are doing when it comes to hanging an NFL line, one would think bettors would want to jump in and take advantage. Not the case. Based on last year's line history most Week 1 games started to move in July and even more so after preseason play got underway. Until then, if you see something you like, take a shot, but if you think there's a chance a better number will be available, you've got plenty of time because for all the hype surrounding how soon the lines are out, the real action is still more than a month away.
American Pharoah's owner not very good at sports betting
Tags: Horse Racing
Oh, this is good. A horse racing owner -- Triple Crown hopeful American Pharoah's owner to be exact -- is being called out for running up and failing to pay a huge sports betting debt
. He was playing at some Costa Rican sportsbook we've never heard of and reportedly lost $2 million. The man in question, Ahmed Zayat, is of course denying the whole thing. That is until A-Phar wins the Belmont in two weeks so he can knock out that crazy fig he owes on the sly.
MLB Handicapping: San Diego Padres struggle with gopher ball
Tags: MLB San Diego Padres
One of the many perks of FanGraphs
is their ability to help baseball bettors better understand when things aren't going according to plan and whether or not we should expect said things to continue. The other day it was the Minnesota Twins and their "ability" to come through in the clutch. Now we have the San Diego Padres who through 41 games can best be described as "ho-hum" as they enter tonight a game under .500. It's no secret that the offense is much improved but the defense stinks and the bullpen has arguably been the worst in baseball. But one of the biggest problems for the Pads has been keeping the ball in the ballpark. The team's HR/FB ratio is on pace for historical levels despite 22 games taking place in Petco Park and nine others in Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. According to FanGraphs, the high longball rate has cost the team roughly three wins. Now the question becomes, will it continue?
If you can believe it, the Padres have allowed more home runs than any other team in baseball. They’ve allowed two more than the Brewers, who play their home games in a hitter-friendly environment. They’ve allowed five more than the Blue Jays, who play their home games in a hitter-friendly environment. They’ve allowed a dozen more than the Reds, who, you get it. The Padres have featured a dinger-happy pitching staff. Dingers are automatic runs. They’re the worst possible outcome.
MLB Betting Podcast 5-20-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron
Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Andrew Lange
Wedneday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron. Ian and host Andrew Lange broke down today's MLB card.
Ian Cameron - MLB
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Submitted by Rob Veno
Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Rob Veno
St. Louis (Martinez) -105 at New York (Colon) O/U 7
Recommendation: St. Louis
The past couple outings for Bartolo Colon have been shaky at best and look like an indicator to jump in with the few who already are on this “fade train.” As a one-pitch pitcher (85.6% fastballs this season) whose one pitch averages 88 MPH and is constantly around the plate, it’s not tough to see how the aging veteran can be on the decline. What’s most disturbing about the control based Colon’s last couple of starts is not just the fact that he’s given up 15 hits and nine earned runs over the 11 innings, but that 10 of those 15 hits allowed (67%) have gone for extra bases (seven 2Bs and three HRs). Cardinals’ starter Carlos Martinez has run into some trouble lately as well posting a 10.29 ERA, 2.36 WHIP and an extremely high average of 21.0 PPI over his last three starts. However, it seems much more probable that the young righty bounces back in this spot considering the Mets weak .294 OBP and .341 SLG% vs. righties this season. Martinez’s three-pitch repertoire can be overpowering and New York’s 21.7% K rate vs. righties plus lack of patient hitters outside of Granderson and Duda should help him. The bullpen edge in this one is significant since the Cards have four rested “go to” arms compared to only Familia and Alex Torres for the Mets. Price is right here to play the better team.
Westgate SuperBook renovations to be completed by football season
Tags: Las Vegas
According to Westgate LV SuperBook managed Jay Kornegay, renovations on the facility will begin in mid-June and are slated to be completed by the end of August. The SuperBook will feature a new video wall, counters, and seating areas.
MLB Betting News: Yankees place Ellsbury on the DL
Tags: MLB New York Yankees
Significant injury for the New York Yankees with Jacoby Ellsbury (knee) headed to the DL
. The Yankees rank second in MLB with a .399 on-base percentage from the lead-off spot -- most of which courtesy of Ellsbury. He also leads the American League in stolen bases with 14. Brett Garnder will likely assume the lead-off role. Ellbury's absence changes the dynamic of the Yankees' lineup with Ellsbury, a lefty, batting .333 vs. right-handers. Chris Young, who is slated to replace him, shows an extremely strong split (.189 vs. righties, .368 vs. lefties).
NBA Gambling Alert: Cleveland's Irving to suit up vs. Atlanta
Tags: NBA Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks
Cleveland's Kyrie Irving (knee) is expected to start
tonight's Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 matchup vs. Atlanta. The Hawks were as high as -1.5 favorites but money on the Cavs has the line down to a pick 'em at a few offshore sportsbooks.
"I would say just my spirits and mental confidence, just being able to actually feel both my feet underneath me, especially when I'm shooting, it feels amazing," Irving said. "You know, just a confidence of getting extra work in and just preparing with my teammates. I think that's the biggest thing I get out of it. I don't want to be on the sideline at all, especially preparing for a big stage like this. I want to be as close to 100 percent before Wednesday as I can be, so just doing the necessary things in order to do that."
MLB Handicapping: Indians send Marcum to the hill vs. White Sox
Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Chicago White Sox
The Cleveland Indians will cart out veteran Shaun Marcum for a spot start
tonight against the Chicago White Sox. Marcum hasn't started a game since 2013 though threw five innings (1 ER, 3 BBs, 4 Ks) during mop-up duty back in early April. Marcum has been pitching for Triple-A Columbus where he compiled a 4-0 record and 1.36 ERA in five starts. The quote from manager Terry Francona is pretty telling as Marcum put up similar stats to that of Bruce Chen while pitching in the minors. After being called up Chen allowed 17 hits and nine earned runs in 6.1 inning and earlier this week announced his retirement.
"Shaun and Chen put up fairly similar numbers at Columbus," said Francona. "Shaun has been with us for two years. He's rehabbed a bunch and he's worked hard to get this opportunity."
NFL Handicapping: League moves PAT attempts back to the 15-yard line
The NFL announced
that PAT attempts will be moved back to the 15-yard line this season. In 2014, kickers hit 96.7% from that range -- without the ability to place the ball in a preferred spot like they can with a PAT. It will however make for some great Twitter the first time a kicker doinks one off the upright to miss out on a pointspread cover.