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MLB Betting Preview Podcast 3-30-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

03.30.2015     09:38 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange previewed the American League Central.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - American League Central

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers Andrew Lange



Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors gear up for Final Four

03.30.2015     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament.  And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets. 

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney.  For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first.  Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance.  Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.  

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much publicity and too much hype coming into the tourney.  That’s a big part of the reason why they have covered only one pointspread in four tourney games thus far.  The bigger betting groups have certainly noticed, with fairly heavy wiseguy money showing against the Wildcats in both games over Sweet 16 weekend.

Perhaps the single most impressive aspect of John Calipari’s squad has been their ability to respond to adversity through stellar execution on both ends of the floor.  Look at their thrilling two point win over Notre Dame for a prime example.   Kentucky hit their last nine shots of that game as they rallied back against the Fighting Irish.  Six of those nine shots were layups or dunks, two more were wide open three pointers.  Throw in an impressive display of offensive rebounding, nabbing their own misses at a 40% clip, and the stage was set for a remarkably poised comeback victory.

Kentucky ranks among the Top 2 in the country in defensive efficiency from both two point range and from three point range; a truly elite defense.  But the Wildcats defense proved vulnerable against the Fighting Irish.  The quickness of the Notre Dame guards was problematic for the bigger Wildcat on-ball defenders – both Harrison twins struggled with dribble penetration; hence the extra playing time for Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker (51 minutes between them).  Notre Dame’s guards were repeatedly able to get into the paint, creating good looks by the basket and open looks from the three point line, but Coach Calipari had enough depth and roster versatility to counter.

For all of the incredible offense that Bo Ryan’s Badgers demonstrated in their win over Arizona, the Wisconsin guards didn’t play all that well.   Josh Gasser and Bronson Koening combined for only five assists and four baskets for the entire game.  Senior point guard Traveon Jackson returned from a two month-long absence and was held scoreless and assist-less in seven minutes of non-descript playing time. 

Neither Koenig nor Jackson appear to have the capacity to drive past the Harrison twins the same way that Notre Dame’s guards were able to.  The Badgers had the #1 offense in the country in ‘points per possession’ by a fairly wide margin this year, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable offensive showing in the second half against Arizona, but they’ll be hard pressed to match that level of shooting when they face off against the Wildcats.

Seventh seed Michigan State is the only surprise team to reach the Final Four.  Frankly, with Tom Izzo making his seventh Final Four since 1999 (more than any other coach or program), the Spartans cannot be considered a major surprise.  Izzo is now 7-2 in Elite Eight games (SU), and he has guided Michigan State to 13 NCAA Tournament victories as a lower seed; more than any other coach in history (Rollie Massamino and Lute Olson are tied for second with 11 wins as a lower seed). 

Michigan State spent the first three months of the season struggling to find their rhythm.  They lost at home to the likes of Illinois and Minnesota on the heels of their earlier loss in East Lansing to Texas Southern.  Maryland beat them twice.  Nebraska knocked them off.  It was not pretty for Tom Izzo and company – until the calendar hit March. 

The Spartans closed out the regular season with a pair of wins, including a tough, gut-it-out win at Indiana on senior day for the Hoosiers.  They went into the Big 10 tourney and played waaaay above their power rating, beating Ohio State and Maryland, then controlling Wisconsin for about the first 35 minutes of gameplan before falling short in OT. 

Here in the Big Dance, the Spartans have been as tough as nails, surviving a very slow start against Oklahoma, while knocking off quality squads from Louisville, Virginia and Georgia; winning all four games by seven points or less.  They survived their ‘missed free throw’ debacle game against Oklahoma, hitting all six key free throws to clinch the victory after starting the game 3-10 from the charity stripe.  It’s a waaaay overused cliché, but the Spartans really are playing their best basketball of the year right now; a team that is coming together at the right time.

That being said, Duke-Kentucky is the Finals matchup the betting markets expect, the Finals matchup the networks want and the Finals matchup between the two best teams in the country, according to my power ratings.  And Duke’s ball pressure defense is primed to give the Spartans offensive flow issues – point guard play is not an area of strength for Michigan State, despite their tremendous perimeter shooting in the win over Louisville

Duke is here because backcourt mates Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook and Matt Jones, along with penetrating forward Justin Winslow have been consistently able to drive into the paint and get good shots for themselves and their teammates.  Jones and Cook each played 40 full minutes without a turnover in the win over Gonzaga, and Duke turned it over only three times all game, one of which was a shot clock violation as they were running out the clock on their final possession.

After playing a pair of games in the dismal conditions for shooters at NRG Stadium in Houston. Duke should benefit from the better sight lines in Indianapolis.  The Blue Devils beat the Spartans by ten on this floor in the Midwest Regional back in 2013, and they beat them by ten at Bankers Life Fieldhouse here in Indy back in November of this season.  To pull off another win and cover against Michigan State next Saturday, they’ll probably need more from potential #1 overall NBA draft choice Jahlil Okafor, who scored only 15 points in 61 minutes of floor time this past weekend while spending extended portions of crunch time on the bench due to his poor free throw shooting.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers.

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Wisconsin Badgers Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Teddy Covers Las Vegas



NHL Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens

03.30.2015     08:12 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay +105 at Montreal O/U 5 
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Montreal tonight and they currently trail the Canadians by three points in the Eastern Conference standings.  This is a very important game in ultimately deciding who will earn home ice in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  The Lightning have dominated the Canadiens this season by winning all four meetings by a combined score of 16-5 including a 4-2 win on their home ice two weeks ago. In a tight checking, low scoring game like we’re likely to see this evening, I am fully confident in backing the more psychical team as a slight underdog. Tampa Bay matches up very well offensively against Montreal’s stingy defense.  And after getting blanked 4-0 at Detroit on Saturday, the Lightning are in prime bounce-back mode. "We always respond after games like (Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Red Wings)," veteran wing Ryan Callahan said. "We have the character in here to do that. We know who's coming up next, and that's a pretty big one, too. So it's going to be easy to get up for that one." Should be a great game and one that I’m supporting the road side.

Tags: NHL Tampa Bay Lightning Montreal Canadiens Sammy P



NCAA Tournament Gambling: Kentucky a short favorite to cut down nets

03.30.2015     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Final Four is set and boy, is it ever loaded with intrigue! After barely slipping past Notre Dame, the betting markets have cooled on Kentucky with the Wildcats a modest -117 to win the tournament. You can bet even money on the Cats to lose one of their potential two games. Odds courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.

Odds to Win the NCAA Tournament 
Kentucky -117 
Duke +305 
Wisconsin +452 
Michigan State +820

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Wisconsin Badgers Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans



NCAA Tournament Gambling: Utah-Duke ending causes betting apocalypse

03.30.2015     07:29 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It took a couple of rounds but last weekend we finally got to witness the NCAA Tournament's Top Betting Shenanigan at the end of the Utah-Duke game. 


"It caused a million-dollar swing with parlay liability, to the bad," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN.



Tags: College Basketball Utah Utes Duke Blue Devils



First weekend in May promises to be huge for Las Vegas

03.30.2015     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you're into sports betting and thinking about making a trip to Las Vegas the spring, the first weekend in May looks to be ideal. For starters you have both NBA and NHL playoffs in full swing. Then there's the Kentucky Derby. And to close out the evening one of the biggest fights in history with Mayweather vs. Pacquiao at the MGM Grand.


“Other than Super Bowl Sunday, the single day will be as big as we’ve written in years.  Look for May 2 to be approaching the Super Bowl handle on Super Bowl Sunday, and that’s saying a lot.”



Tags: Las Vegas



NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats

03.28.2015     08:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame vs. Kentucky -11 O/U 136 
Recommendation: Kentucky


For all that talk about Notre Dame's incredible season-long offensive production I think a lot of folks fail to realize that Kentucky is just as good at scoring the basketball. And the one luxury the Cats have is that even with a couple players having an “off night”, this team can still score at an incredibly efficient clip. Against West Virginia, Cauley-Stine, Towns, and Ulis combined for 3-of-10 from the floor and  11 points and the Cats still averaged 1.22 ppg and netted 78 points. Notre Dame can score too, but with what is essentially a five-man rotation, if two or three players underperform -- which is likely against UK's vaunted defense -- then Kentucky quickly becomes the better offensive team in this matchup. Defensively, it's of course not even close. The Irish don't force turnovers, are soft on the interior, and consistently lose the battle on the glass. Their only hope is to pack it in and hope Kentucky has an off shooting night from the perimeter. I can't come up with a facet of this game that favors the underdog which makes me more than willing to lay what is a very reasonable price with the favorite.

Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange



NCAA Tournament Betting Podcast 3-27-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

03.27.2015     10:18 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange broke down tonight's four NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - Sweet Sixteen

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers



NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

03.27.2015     08:23 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UCLA +8.5 vs. Gonzaga O/U 145 
Recommendation: UCLA


This Sweet Sixteen contest is a rematch from a regular season meeting back in December at Pauley Pavilion when the Bulldogs easily defeated the Bruins 87-74 while covering as 5.5-point favorites. However, it is impossible to categorize the UCLA team that Gonzaga dominated in December with the UCLA team we are seeing here in March. The Bruins have grown up since then and played with much greater poise and both ends of the court. The Bruins are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and the only defeat was a competitive 6-point loss to Arizona in the semifinals of the PAC-12 Tournament. UCLA has displayed versatility in the fact they can win with the offense and/or defense. They smothered SMU 60-59 in the first round and then rolled to a 92-75 blowout win over UAB.

It’s not easy to step in front of Gonzaga right now as the Bulldogs are a terrific and well balanced squad with four starters -- Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell Jr., Byron Wesley and Kyle Wiltjer -- who are all elite scorers. The Bulldogs played a solid opening game against North Dakota State and followed that up with a near perfect outing against Iowa in a 87-68 rout. Gonzaga shot 61.5% from the floor including 62.5% from the perimeter. They dominated the rebounding battle on the glass to the tune of 31-19 and only committed 11 turnovers. Often times, instead of looking for that same degree of dominance in a team’s next game, I like to look for a bit of a regression to the mean especially when the numbers were so off the chart. Gonzaga can’t play much better than they did against Iowa and now they must face what I think is a better opponent tonight and a higher pointspread. Take the underdog.

Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins Gonzaga Bulldogs Ian Cameron



Anti-online gambling crusaders take Red Scare approach

03.27.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
What a crock of shit.


"Internet gambling places real-time gambling on every cell phone, at every school desk, at every work desk, and in every living room," Kindt said, leading into a direct quote of Adelson. "With ease people can click your phone, lose your home or click your mouse, lose your house."



Tags: Poker



MLB Gambling Update: League looking into Cosart situation

03.27.2015     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly

UPDATE

Update on the Jarred Cosart's alleged gambling exploits. The MLB is reportedly looking into the matter and Cosart is cooperating. He's playing it coy thus far and asking everyone to wait till the situation plays out. Cosart though didn't deny that the original Tweets in question were his own. Important to note that there's no rule to keep MLB players from betting on other sports.


"Obviously, I was caught off guard by the whole situation," Cosart said. "I'm following the MLB protocol and talking with MLB security, and they're taking care of it. I'm putting everything in their hands, and when we know something else, we'll let everybody know."






The one where Jarred Cosart is accused of being a sports bettor

03.25.2015     08:44 AM     View Original Blog
Well this is interesting -- and probably a hoax. The Twitter account of Miami Marlins pitcher Jarred Cosart went sorta crazy yesterday with talk of sports betting. That in turn led to every one of Cosart’s poor starts being labeled as an “obvious” fix.




Tags: MLB Miami Marlins



MLB Handicapping: 2015 Umpire Crews

03.27.2015     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly

Below are the projected umpire crews for the upcoming 2015 MLB season. Glad to see our favorite strike caller John Hirschbeck is back after missing last season.

copy_mlb_umps.JPG

 

Tags: MLB



Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

03.27.2015     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

With a solid offense, defense, and pitching, the Pittsburgh Pirates have put themselves in good position to once again contend in the National League Central.

Pittsburgh Pirates  
2014 W-L:
88-74 
2014 O/U: 74-79-9 
2014 Profits: +6 
2015 O/U Wins: 83.5 
2015 NL Central Odds: +245 
Projected Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, Charlie Morton, Vance Worley 
Key Departures: Edison Volquez, Russell Martin 
Key Additions: Corey Hart, A.J. Burnett

Handicapper's Take: "After years of toiling at the bottom of the National League the Pittsburgh Pirates are on good footing. They've embraced the 'smart baseball' mantra by relying heavily on sabermetrics and it's paid off in spades. The pitching staff is rock solid led by star-in-waiting Gerritt Cole (3.25 xFIP). Francisco Liriano is still only 31 years old and while unlikely to improve he can chew up quality innings in the National League. AJ Burnett is back for another turn and shouldn't have trouble matching Edison Volquez's production. Charlie Morton has reinvented himself as a solid middle-of-the rotation arm. And the combo of Vance Worley and Jeff Locke serves as two decent back-end options. Offensively, this was a sneaky-productive lineup in 2014 with the fourth-highest runs output in the National League -- tops in the Central. Virtually the entire lineup returns intact. The one main concern I have is replacing Russell Martin who was arguably the team's most valuable player. I'm not sold on the Cardinals running away with the division. Nor am I convinced the Cubs are going to be instant contenders like a lot of folks are projecting. The Pirates should be right there with the potential to churn out another profitable season." - Andrew Lange

The MLB season is right around the corner so now is the time to lock in a Sportsmemo full season package! Get every regular season selection and full playoff coverage for only $999. That comes out to about $150 per month! Last baseball season was one of Sportsmemo’s best as five handicappers produced double-digit unit profits.

2014 MLB Top Producers 
Sammy P: 90-59 +25.45 
Erin Rynning: 76-61 +17.48 
Brent Crow: 71-55 +17.16 
Rob Veno: 194-188 +15.61 
Andrew Lange: 84-69 +11.855 
Profits based on a 1-2 unit scale -- no artificial unit inflation.

To purchase a full season or monthly MLB package from the Sportsmemo Handicapper of your choice, click here or call our office at 1-800-575-3069.

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange



Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

03.27.2015     06:50 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

The Tampa Bay Rays have started plenty of seasons with the 'on-paper' look of a .500 ballclub only to exceed expectations. But they'll need to overachieve in a number of areas if they want to avoid finishing at the bottom of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays 
2014 W-L:
77-85 
2014 O/U: 74-79-9 
2014 Profits: -26.5 
2015 O/U Wins: 79.5 
2015 AL East Odds: +600 
Projected Starting Rotation: Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Jake Ordorizzi, Drew Smyly 
Key Departures: Ben Zobrist, Will Myers, Matt Joyce 
Key Additions: John Jaso, Keven Jepsen, Steven Souza

Handicapper's Take: "Looks to be somewhat of a transition year for Tampa Bay following the departure of a number of key players and manager Joe Maddon. And while the organization has a strong pedigree of being able to replace talent with talent, the Rays' farm system (24th according to Baseball Prospectus) isn't nearly as strong as it was 4-5 year ago. Offensively, they grade out as the weakest in the division. They had some of the worst power numbers in the American League and didn't do much to shore it up during the offseason. Their prized acquisition, Steven Souza (Washington Nationals), was at one point 4-for-33 in spring training. After earning International League MVP honors in 2014, the Rays are banking on him to be an impact bat. Note too that the pitching staff won't be near full strength to start the season. Alex Cobb is already dealing with arm problems. Drew Smyly and Alex Colome won't be ready for the start of the season. And neither will Matt Moore who is coming off of Tommy John. Couple that with lots of news faces and a new manager and the Rays look to be a prime 'bet against' team in April." - Sammy P

The MLB season is right around the corner so now is the time to lock in a Sportsmemo full season package! Get every regular season selection and full playoff coverage for only $999. That comes out to about $150 per month! Last baseball season was one of Sportsmemo’s best as five handicappers produced double-digit unit profits.

2014 MLB Top Producers 
Sammy P: 90-59 +25.45 
Erin Rynning: 76-61 +17.48 
Brent Crow: 71-55 +17.16 
Rob Veno: 194-188 +15.61 
Andrew Lange: 84-69 +11.855 
Profits based on a 1-2 unit scale -- no artificial unit inflation.

To purchase a full season or monthly MLB package from the Sportsmemo Handicapper of your choice, click here or call our office at 1-800-575-3069.

 


Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Sammy P



NCAA Tournament Gambling: Kentucky covered every pointspread imaginable vs. West Virginia

03.27.2015     06:13 AM     Printer Friendly

Let's all have a chuckle at last night's in-game pointspread progression for the already infamous West Virginia-Kentucky game.  As you'll notice, the Wildcats covered EVERY number!

copy_kentucky_live.JPG

 

 

 

Tags: College Basketball West Virginia Mountaineers Kentucky Wildcats



Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Detroit Tigers

03.26.2015     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Following the loss of three key pitchers over the last two seasons, the Detroit Tigers find themselves as “just another AL Central team” after years of domination.

Detroit Tigers 
2014 W-L:
90-72 
2014 O/U: 84-72-6 
2014 Profits: -3.8 
2015 O/U Wins: 84.5 
2015 AL Central Odds: +205 
Projected Starting Rotation: David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon 
Key Departures: Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello 
Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes

Handicapper’s Take: “The Tigers won 90 games again last year while winning their fourth consecutive American League Central title.  Yet their supporters lost money for the full season last year; just as they did in 2013 and 2012 – the only profitable season for their backers during this four-year span of division domination came back in 2011.  Why can’t the Tigers show a profit for their backers even when they are winning division titles?  Simple – their starting pitching was too good on paper, resulting in a steady diet of high favorite’s prices to lay with them. That may not be the case again in 2015.  David Price still commands a big price (pun intended) at the top of the rotation, but Justin Verlander has lost his luster in the markets and the likes of Alfredo Simon and Shane Green at the back of the rotation aren’t sabermetric darlings.  Then there’s Anibal Sanchez who can’t seem to stay healthy. The loss of Doug Fister in 2014 and now Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello quickly turned one of the top rotations in baseball to below average. Other concerns include a defense that remains near the bottom of the majors, a bullpen is loaded with question marks, and top slugger Miguel Cabrera clearly took a step back last year.  There’s a reason why this year’s Detroit Tigers are priced virtually the same as the White Sox and Indians to win the division. This is a team primed to take a step back.” - Teddy Covers

The MLB season is right around the corner so now is the time to lock in a Sportsmemo full season package! Get every regular season selection and full playoff coverage for only $999. That comes out to about $150 per month! Last baseball season was one of Sportsmemo’s best as five handicappers produced double-digit unit profits.

2014 MLB Top Producers 
Sammy P: 90-59 +25.45 
Erin Rynning: 76-61 +17.48 
Brent Crow: 71-55 +17.16 
Rob Veno: 194-188 +15.61 
Andrew Lange: 84-69 +11.855 
Profits based on a 1-2 unit scale -- no artificial unit inflation.

To purchase a full season or monthly MLB package from the Sportsmemo Handicapper of your choice, click here or call our office at 1-800-575-3069.  


Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Teddy Covers



NCAA Tournament Betting Podcast 3-26-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno

03.26.2015     10:08 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down tonight's four NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen matchups.

Today's segments 
Rob Veno - Sweet Sixteen

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno Andrew Lange



NBA Handicapping: Washington Wizards continue wild ATS streaks

03.26.2015     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Washington Wizards have officially imploded. Last night's fourth quarter meltdown (outscored 33-25) against the Pacers marked their fourth straight loss. Head coach Randy Wittman was so frustrated he started to walk off the floor before the game even ended. The Wiz are in the playoffs but may miss out on homecourt advantage in the first round as they currently own the fifth seed. But what stands out is the crazy against-the-spread streaks this team has put together over the last two months. Check these out...

January 21-February 5: 0-9 ATS

February 7-February 11: 3-0 ATS

February 20-March 7: 0-9 ATS

March 9-March 18: 4-0 ATS

March 20-March 25: 0-4 ATS

Tags: NBA Washington Wizards



College Basketball Betting Free Play: Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats

03.26.2015     07:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Xavier vs. Arizona -10.5 O/U 135.5 
Recommendation: Arizona


My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country.  The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time.  Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four.  This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.

Xavier is no juggernaut.  The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else.  The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play.  They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.

The Georgia State game warrants further examination here.  Xavier hit 16-of-21 (76%) from two point range , 7-of-13 (56%) from three point range and 22-25 (88%) from the free throw line – as well as any team can possibly shoot, even against an undersized foe.  Xavier held the Panthers to just 12 rebounds for the entire game.  And yet they covered the spread by only a single point.  If you’re not covering numbers with ease following a truly unheard of statistical profile like that, it speaks volumes about their chances moving forward.

Xavier’s Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds – their only contributing big men -- were able to dominate the point against Georgia State.  The duo scored 30 points on 12-14 from the field and matched the Panthers team rebounding numbers by themselves.  But neither guy is a low post behemoth, leaving them in dire straights against the rugged, physical Wildcats front line.  The Arizona quartet of Stanley Johnson, Kaleb Tarczewski, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley is primed to control the paint on both ends of the floor, start to finish.

The Wildcats just outrebounded a tough, physical Ohio State team by a +18 margin, on the heels of their +14 in the opening round and their +34 in the three games of the PAC-12 tournament.  They’ve been consistently dominating, winning six of their last seven by 15 points or more while winning 13 straight overall.  It’s surely worth noting that the Musketeers were only underdogs of +5 or higher twice this year; both times against Villanova.  They lost by double digits both times and failed to cover either pointspread.  There’s a class difference here that is greater than the current pointspread would indicate.

Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Arizona Wildcats Teddy Covers



Legalized sports betting unlikely to cause significant rise in addiction

03.26.2015     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly

You can't talk about legalized sports betting without someone bringing up addiction. It's the go-to excuse for those against the "movement." But experts aren't so sure that legalization is going to lead to this alleged explosion of problem gamblers


"Sports betting in the United States is ubiquitous," Shaffer continued. "We have office pools, friendly wagers, it's not unusual when Super Bowl time rolls around for mayors of the competing cities to have a public bet. That's all sports betting. Now, is the community mature enough to tolerate legalized sports betting? Because when sports becomes legal, there will be some people who might not have bet on sports who will now jump in. Are those sports betting virgins, so to speak, going to be affected? I think the answer is 'yes.' But the real question is: 'How many are there and is there enough to influence the system?' "



Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Arizona Wildcats Teddy Covers



Nevada sportsbooks may soon offer group betting

03.26.2015     06:27 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Nevada is trying to pass a bill that would allow "groups", not just individuals, to place bets at state run sportsbooks.

Tags: Las Vegas



Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres

03.25.2015     02:43 PM     Printer Friendly

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

It's time to win in San Diego -- or at least score some more runs. The Padres brought in some big-name bats as well as ace James Shields which makes them instant contenders in the NL West.

San Diego Padres 
2014 W-L:
77-85 
2014 O/U: 61-95 
2014 Profits: -9 
2015 O/U Wins: 84.5 
2015 NL West Odds: +375 
Projected Starting Rotation: James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Odrisamer Despaigne 
Key Departures: Seth Smith 
Key Additions: James Shields, Will Myers, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks

Handicapper's Take: "After years of trying to do it with pitching and defense, the Padres committed to offense in a big way by completely overhauling their roster during the offseason. They also spent a ton of money to do so. Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton by default means a lot more runs -- even at Petco Park. And that should in turn mean more wins for a franchise that has averaged 75 the last four years. The betting markets though have responded in a big way by saying the 'new look' Padres are 7.5 wins better than 2014's squad. I like the starting staff with James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Ian Kennedy as their top four starters. Shields has put a lot of miles on his arm (8 straight 200+ IP seasons) but greatly lessens his stress load with the switch in leagues and venue. Cashner, Ross, and Kennedy have all proved to be above average National League arms. And there's plenty of options at the bottom of the rotation with Odrisamer Despaigne, Brandon Morrow, and others. The biggest concern though is defense. As it is, the outfield of Kemp, Myers, and Upton has the potential to be really bad, especially considering how much space there is to cover. And the infield grades out as average at best defensively and well below average with the sticks. Overall, though, the offseason moves were bold and positive and should finally give bettors a chance to make a decent chunk of change backing the Padres." - Ian Cameron

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2014 MLB Top Producers 
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Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Ian Cameron



NBA Betting Podcast 3-25-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

03.25.2015     10:21 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. ER and host Andrew Lange broke down tonight's NBA card.

Today's segments 
Erin Rynning - NBA

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NBA Erin Rynning



The one where Jarred Cosart is accused of being a sports bettor

03.25.2015     08:44 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Well this is interesting -- and probably a hoax. The Twitter account of Miami Marlins pitcher Jarred Cosart went sorta crazy yesterday with talk of sports betting. That in turn led to every one of Cosart’s poor starts being labeled as an “obvious” fix.

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins



NBA Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets

03.25.2015     08:13 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia at Denver -11.5 O/U 209.5 
Recommendation: Denver


Not a real good situation for Philadelphia who travels to altitude tonight after an all-out effort last night in Sacramento. The 76ers posted 70 first half points but managed only 36 after the break. The 107-106 loss extended their road losing streak to 16 games. Philly’s propensity for offensive droughts will likely be a factor against fast paced and well rested Denver. The Nuggets are also expected to get backup combo guard Randy Foye back after a one-game absence. With the 76ers playing their third road game in four nights, the opposing tempo, depth, and venue will take its toll. Since assistant Melvin Hunt took over the Nuggets as head coach they’ve scored 100+ 10 times and gone 9-3 against the spread. Rather than just playing out the string, the Nuggets have committed to playing hard for 48 minutes and expect the same in this spot. Philly’s -14.6 points per game road scoring margin shows how susceptible they are to being blown out away from home and in Denver’s three opportunities as favorites under Hunt, they’ve won by 19,11, and 28. The latter was as -10 versus New York which indicates the Nuggets are capable of shooting fish in a barrel. 

Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Denver Nuggets Rob Veno






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