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College Football Betting Preview: Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores

09.29.2016     12:05 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida at Vanderbilt 
Saturday, 9 am PT - SEC 
CRIS Opener:
Florida -9.5 O/U 41.5 
CRIS Current: Florida -10/5 O/U 40.5 
Recommendation: Florida

Florida returns to the Volunteer State for the second week in a row, hoping for better results than last week’s 38-28 loss to Tennessee.  The Gators got off to a big 21-0 lead in the second quarter but after halftime, the wheels fell as Tennessee scored 35 straight points. The second half turnaround was amazing as Florida had outgained Tennessee 300-162 in the first half and averaged 8.8 yards per play.  Florida played very conservatively in the second half on offense while Tennessee came out ferociously and it showed, with the Gators having five straight three-and-outs.

I am going to overlook the second half of that game and focus on what Florida did in the first half and in their other games this season. They had allowed 14 points in the first three games prior to Tennessee and are made up of some solid NFL prospects. Vanderbilt does not pose anywhere near the threat that Tennessee did with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and his receivers.

Vanderbilt’s offense is much more pedestrian, and the Commodores have been outgained in all four games this season. When facing power five opponents, Georgia Tech and South Carolina, they managed just 17 points combined. They were able to score points against C-USA opponents MTSU and Western Kentucky, but were outgained in both games and benefitted from five turnovers. They now face the best defense they have seen all year, one that will come in with a chip on their shoulder after last week’s embarrassing second half.

“That was the most emotional locker room that I’ve ever been in,” quarterback Austin Appleby said. “There were a lot of guys that were really hurt. We fully expected to win that game, we started fast and we just came up a little bit short. Guys were hurt. Guys felt we played our hearts out, we played our hardest, effort wasn’t a problem. We just got beat by a good team and guys really took it personally.”

Coach Jim McElwain: “The mood in that locker room, there were a lot — a lot — of hurt guys. And I’m not sure a couple of the losses even last year I could feel that sense of hurt,” he said Monday. “As I told them, it should hurt because if it doesn’t, something’s wrong. It means you really don’t care. It means you’re in it for the wrong reasons. We’ll see where we bounce from here.”

Florida has won 24 of the last 25 meetings against Vandy and gets one by margin in Nashville on Saturday.

Tags: College Football Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores SEC Brent Crow



College Football Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats

09.29.2016     11:57 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
South Florida at Cincinnati 
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPNU 
CRIS Opener:
South Florida -6 O/U 59.5 
CRIS Current: South Florida -5.5 O/U 61 
Recommendation: Over

Conference opener for both teams and I expect the offenses to have the better of it. The Bulls have been rolling along quite efficiently with their up-tempo, run based spread offense; 35+ points in all four games. They’ve averaged over 7 yards per play and face a Bearcats defense that in two games against their toughest competition (Houston and Purdue) allowed 500+ total yards. USF has scored at least 35 points in eight consecutive games and at least 200 rushing yards in nine straight games dating back to last year. Even in last week’s narrow 27-20 win over Miami (OH), the Bearcats yielded nearly 6 yards per play. I don’t trust Cincinnati to neutralize South Florida’s balanced offensive attack that carved up the Bearcats for 65 points on 573 total yards last season. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack had a field day in that contest and I think both are poised for more success here.

On the flip side, the South Florida defense came completely unglued against Florida State last week as it allowed 55 points on 647 total yards. The Seminoles averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per pass. Even in the 45-20 win against Syracuse, South Florida’s defense struggled to get stops allowing 549 total yards to the Orange at a 5.3 yards per play clip.

Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore was a late scratch prior to last week’s game against Miami (OH) with an ankle injury but head coach Tommy Tuberville says there is a good chance that Moore will play. The Bearcats have a solid running back tandem with Tion Green and Mike Boone and two good receivers in Devin Gray and Nate Cole. I expect Cincinnati should be able to move the football in this game and put up points with its offense averaging 5.7 yards per play on the campaign. Let’s play this one over the total.

Tags: College Football South Florida Bulls Cincinnati Bearcats AAC Ian Cameron



College Football Betting Preview: Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones

09.29.2016     11:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baylor at Iowa State 
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS-1 
CRIS Opener:
Baylor -16.5 O/U 59 
CRIS Current: Baylor -17 O/U 60.5 
Recommendation: Over

It's not too often you see Baylor involved in a game with a total in the low 60's. In fact, Saturday will mark the lowest total for the Bears since midseason 2014. Even last year's trip to Manhattan to face slow paced and ultra-conservative Kansas State State closed 67. Also interesting is the fact that last year's meeting against Iowa State closed 74.5; it landed just short with Baylor winning in Ames, 45-27.

ISU has shown no ability to stop the high octane offenses in the Big XII. Last season, against Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones allowed 48.6 ppg. And thanks to playing from behind in a majority of those contests, ISU proved capable of putting the ball in the end zone with scores of 31, 21, 27, 16, and 31. In the end, all five of those contests topped 61 points (73.8 average). Against TCU earlier this season, Iowa State coughed up 41 in just over three quarters as the Horned Frogs were content to sit on the ball late.

Baylor's offense has looked a bit rusty at times this season; 6 points in the first half against SMU and held scoreless in the first quarter against Rice. But last week looked vintage Bears as the offense rolled up 387 passing yards and a whopping 8.05 ypp in their win over Oklahoma State. Had Baylor hung their normal 50+ against SMU and Rice, this total would be in the high 60’s. The fact that they are still moving the ball suggests their failures to cash in at a high clip are correctable. Play it over.

Tags: College Football Baylor Bears Iowa State Cyclones Big XII Andrew Lange



Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 9-29-2016

09.29.2016     11:01 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_cfb_podcast_bar.jpg

Here is Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast for Week 5. Handicappers Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, Alex B. Smith, Brent Crow, and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: College Football Ian Cameron Alex B. Smith Brent Crow Drew Martin Rob Veno



Big Ten Betting Podcast 9-28-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

09.28.2016     01:50 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. ER and host Andrew Lange broke down the Big Ten games for Week 5.

Today's segments 
Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report Week 5

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Big Ten Erin Rynning Andrew Lange



College Football Betting Preview: Central Florida Knights at East Carolina Pirates

09.28.2016     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Central Florida at East Carolina 
Saturday, 9 am PT - CBSC 
CRIS Opener:
East Carolina -6 O/U 56.5 
CRIS Current: East Carolina -4 O/U 61.5 
Recommendation: Central Florida

UCF went 0-12 last year.  Ten of their losses came by two touchdowns or more, as they should have – George O’Leary’s final season was a complete disaster.  That included a late November 44-7 home loss at the hands of East Carolina.  That was then, this is now. 

First-year head coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights.  The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants to become “Oregon of the East."  Frost found his starting quarterback two weeks ago when previous starter Justin Holman got hurt.  In two games behind center, frosh McKenzie Milton; a dual threat dynamo against both Maryland and FIU. 

Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.”

When a formerly dismal team starts to play competitive football, then starts to win, it becomes contagious – these are bet-on teams week after week, until the markets show that they’ve caught up.  Considering that UCF has covered the spread (in regulation) by double digit margins in each of the last two weeks, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the markets have caught up with their improvement.

East Carolina has faced two solid offensive teams; NC State and Virginia Tech.  The Wolfpack gained more than 200 yards on the ground AND through the air against East Carolina, and could have scored far more than the 30 points that they did.  Last week, Virginia Tech hung 54 on this stop unit, another balanced attack, and the defense didn’t create a turnover.  Expect East Carolina to have a tough time getting stops here; bad news for any favorite.

The Pirates are coming off back-to-back physical, demoralizing losses, and they’ve yet to beat a FBS team by more than a field goal this year.  A program in transition following the shocking firing of Ruffin McNeill last December has no business laying more than a field goal to a bet-on UCF squad on Saturday.

Tags: College Football Central Florida Knights East Carolina Pirates AAC Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers

09.28.2016     09:53 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Illinois at Nebraska 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - BTN 
CRIS Opener:
Nebraska -21 O/U 55.5 
CRIS Current: Nebraska -21 O/U 54 
Recommendation: Nebraska

It's homecoming Weekend in Lincoln as the Nebraska Cornhuskers play host to Illinois. Nebraska improved to 4-0 after a 24-13 victory at Northwestern last week. With the win, Nebraska entered the AP ranking at No. 20 for the first time since the end of the 2014 season. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. had a monster game, picking up a 379 total yards while running back Terell Newby chipped in 69 yards and a touchdown.

Illinois is coming off a bye week after dropping a 34-10 decision to Western Michigan. The Broncos outrushed the Illini by a whopping 287-3 margin. Despite efforts in the first two games to spark their rushing attack, Lovie Smith's squad attempted 43 passes compared to 10 rushes due to playing from behind the entire game. Smith clearly has his work cut out for him moving forward. In blowout losses to North Carolina and Western Michigan, the Illini were outgained 899-624 (7.3 ypp-4.8 ypp). It's not a positive sign considering the Illini actually outgained their opponents last year 5.9-5.6 ypp.

The Illini have been money burners as road underdogs over the last four seasons with a dismal 3-12 ATS mark. And while this pointspread is rarified air (Ilinois was catching a modest +10.5 at Iowa LY), Nebraska holds significant talent edges on both sides of the ball. Also note that Illinois won last year's matchup, 14-13 in Champaign. Nebraska was able to win the rushing battle (187-131) but Armstrong Jr. had his worst game of the season (10-of-31, 105 yards) and Nebraska coughed up the ball on multiple occasions. The Cornhuskers are in a far better place and look primed to dominate this matchup start to finish.

Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Nebraska Cornhuskers Big Ten Alex B. Smith



College Football Betting Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack

09.28.2016     10:28 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wake Forest at NC State 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT 
CRIS Opener:
NC State -9 O/U 51.5 
CRIS Current: NC State -11 O/U 48.5 
Recommendation: Under

On a perfect 3-0 run with the ACC free play involving the Pittsburgh Panthers, I’ll shift away and tap into an Atlantic Division contest. Situational edge here goes to the Wolfpack which enter the game off of a bye week. Last season NC State had the same bye week situation and won 35-17 in Winston Salem. That could be where the similarities end because at this juncture of the season, the fundamentals in this matchup look a bit different.

In their late October meeting last season, NC State running back Matt Dayes ran wild scoring two touchdowns of 50+ yards and gaining 205 overall. Dayes and the NC State ground game have had a strong start to this season (210.7 ypg) but the Wake Forest run defense has been a rock allowing just 88.5 rypg and 2.7 per carry. What has been vulnerable is the Demon Deacons pass defense which has yielded an average of 414 ypg in contests versus Duke and Indiana. Wake Forest’s other two games were against triple-option Tulane and FCS heavily run oriented Delaware. NC State’s first-year starting quarterback (Boise State transfer) Ryan Finley has completed an amazing 76.3% of his passes thus far with six touchdowns and no interceptions. If Wake Forest is able to focus on and contain Dayes and the ground game, Finley can hurt their weak secondary through the air.

Wake is off of a 33-28 road underdog victory last week against Indiana but the statistical line shows some very concerning numbers. Every team would love to be +5 in turnover margin like the Deacons were last Saturday but to have that monster advantage and only win by five points indicates some flaws. The most glaring was the 611 total yards Indiana gained as they shredded the Wake Forest defense for 7.7 yards per play and 17.7 per pass completion. 

The contest last week in Bloomington is somewhat of an aberration because of the all the big plays. Wake Forest had the five takeaways, a blocked FG, ran an interception back for a TD and scored 33 points despite 11 of their 15 possessions gaining only 22 yards or less. Their run defense was again stout vs. a very capable IU ground attack led by Devine Redding who had his string of five straight 100+ yard games ended.

NC State’s offense will be facing a major step up in class here after facing three poor defensive units in a row and they may be hard pressed to run against Wake Forest the way they did last year primarily because the Deacons no longer have to defend the read option. Having to account for Jacoby Brisset’s running ability last year did open things up for other NC State runners but Finley isn't much of a running threat. I like the way the Wolfpack defense is playing right now and look for them to keep Wake's point production to much less than last week. Money has already taken a bite out of this total but still feel good about a recommendation on the under.

Tags: College Football Wake Forest Demon Deacons NC State Wolfpack ACC Rob Veno



College Football Gambling: Auburn's offense continue to struggle

09.28.2016     09:15 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you've watched Auburn play, you're well aware that the offense has absolutely no identity. Quarterback Sean White is a serviceable passer but can't run which severely limits the playbook. John Franklin offers a wildcat option but it's so obvious opposing teams have little trouble stopping it. And in a new development, Gus Malzahn has reportedly relinquished play calling duties to offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. It's almost as if Malzahn is trying to distance himself from a sinking ship. In three games against Clemson, Texas A&M, and LSU, War Eagle failed to top 20 points. 


“I have been really leaning towards that for about two weeks now,” Malzahn said. “I turned it over to him and I thought he did a fantastic job. I need to be the head coach and that’s what I am going to be. I am looking forward to Rhett building this offense.”

“We need to score more touchdowns," Malzahn said. "That’s it. When we have opportunities to catch them, we’ve got to catch them. And when you have opportunities to run it in, you’ve got to run it in. That will be something moving forward. I’m not looking at it right now. I’m going to enjoy this one. But that’s something we are definitely going to have to improve on.”



Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC



College Football Gambling: Texas' offense on the upswing but defense regressing

09.28.2016     09:27 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Live by the tempo, die by the tempo. Texas has finally made good on its word to pick up the pace offensively. The Longhorns are averaging 83.7 plays and 44.6 points per game. The defense however doesn't look built to handle the extra possessions. Notre Dame hung 47 in Week 1 and Cal topped it in its 50-43 win over UT two weeks ago. In three games, the Longhorns have only one takeaway. Following the bye week, head coach Charlie Strong vowed to be more involved in the defensive game plan. Also note that the offensive numbers may be a bit skewed considering the competition. Notre Dame has been so awful defensively it fired its defensive coordinator. UTEP somehow allowed 66 points at home to Army. And Cal has one of the worst power conference top units in the country.


“I need to be involved and we need to have those meetings,” Strong said. “It was just so key and so important that we just sat down [for] just a self evaluation. Look at yourself … check your ego at the door. Some guys, you’re going to get your feelings hurt, but it is what it is right now, and we have to get it better.”

“We know we have an outstanding coaching staff as a defense,” Boyette said. “Coach Strong has done a good job at recruiting guys here, not just players but coaches as well. They’re a family, and we know that we have a good bond with our coaches.”



Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Big XII



College Football Handicapping: Penn State defense hammered by injuries

09.28.2016     09:00 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Couple injuries of note for Saturday's Minnesota-Penn State game. Golden Gophers defensive end Tai'yon Devers is reportedly out (Sports Options lists him as questionable). Devers has three of the team's nine sacks this season. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are down to a stop sign and two lawn chairs at linebacker. The unit was exposed and some against Michigan as the Wolverines rushed for 326 yards. Three weeks ago, Pitt rushed for 341 yards. Penn State is currently a -3 home favorite.


"In my 22 years of doing this, I've never been a part of a team that's lost all three of our starting linebackers," Franklin said. "I've been around teams that have lost this guy for a game or lost this guy for two games or lost this guy maybe for a season, but to lose all of them for a significant amount of time at the same time, I've never been a part of that."



Tags: College Football Penn State Nittany Lions Minnesota Golden Gophers Big Ten



NFL Handicapping: Buffalo Bills make adjustments under new OC

09.28.2016     08:51 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A week removed from the firing of offensive coordinator/scapegoat Greg Roman, the Buffalo Bills hung 33 points in a must-win over Arizona. Really good article on the changes made by new OC Anthony Lynn. One difference was the offense's tempo which was sped up at different occasions during the game. Overall, Buffalo still only had 297 totals yards on 61 plays. They remain the slowest paced team in the league based on plays per game (53).


“There was rhythm, it’s pace,” said Incognito. “Those plays are coming in really quick and we’re getting in and out of the huddle and it helps pick up first downs. When you’re physical and you pick up first downs and you’re not in third and long, it kind of changes the make of the ball game. And when you’re scoring touchdowns that helps as well.”

“The way we mixed in our no huddle was definitely beneficial with the touchdown that Shady had off the trap,” said Taylor. “That was a big one in the game. You have to pick and choose when you use it, because sometimes you get stuck in a personnel grouping, and it is not the personnel that you can run your whole offense from. But I think we did a good job of mixing it and it forced them to play certain coverages and stay in certain things and give us decent looks to run our plays.”



Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills



College Football Betting Podcast 9-27-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno

09.27.2016     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down line moves for College Football Week 5.

Today's segments 
Rob Veno - College Football Line Moves Week 5

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Rob Veno Andrew Lange



College Football Gambling: Notre Dame parts ways with defensive coordinator

09.27.2016     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In keeping with the "house cleaning" theme for today, Notre Dame announced the firing of defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder following Saturday's 38-35 loss to Duke. With a backup quarterback, the Blue Devils waltzed into South Bend and nearly 500 yards. This is the same team that scored a combined 27 points in losses to Wake Forest and Northwestern. The remainder of the Irish's schedule looks daunting from a defensive perspective. This week's foe, Syracuse, is playing at a pace Notre Dame has shown no ability to contain. North Carolina State and Miami haven't played anyone but are putting up points in bunches. Navy and Army aren't ideal for a stop unit that struggles to tackle. And Virginia Tech's up-tempo offense is starting to take hold with 103 points the last two weeks against Boston College and East Carolina.


“When you guys ask me those questions certainly that's not the time or place to get into debates about your coaching staff. I make those decisions clearly when I have the opportunity to evaluate it. And (I) had time last night to evaluate our current situation and made what I felt to be the best decision for the program,” Kelly said on his weekly Sunday teleconference.



Tags: College Football Notre Dame Fighting Irish



College Football Betting: LSU seeks more offense following coaching change

09.27.2016     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stop us if you've heard this before: Struggling team fires coach, vows to "open up" offense moving forward. That is what LSU is proclaiming in the wake of Les Miles' departure. College football's most popular interim head coach Ed Orgeron takes over heading into this weekend's matchup against Missouri. The "new" offense coupled with Missouri's up-tempo attack prompted a bevy of over money as the total skyrocketed from 45 to 51.


“You can expect … a new style of play on offense, and obviously we don't have a lot of time to change things, but we are going to tweak things around,” Orgeron said in his introductory news conference.

“We're going to spread the ball out a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play,” he said later Monday.



Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC



College Football Gambling: Florida International finaly frees itself of Ron Turner

09.27.2016     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Four years ago marked one of the most baffling college football head coaching firings/hirings on record. Mario Cristobal took over Florida International in 2007 and proceeded to go 1-11. But three years later, helped the Panthers reach a bowl game; their first of what was back-to-back postseason appearances. FIU suffered from regression in 2013 (3-9) and Cristobal was mysteriously fired. Rather than reload with another young, up-and-coming coach, FIU decided to bring in Ron Turner. It was a silly hire that was destined to fail, and fail it did. Turner, who went 35-57 at Illinois and 10-30 at FIU, was finally canned this past weekend. The university justified the move by saying it allowed the team a "clean slate" heading into C-USA play. Defensive coordinator Ron Cooper will serve as interim head coach the remainder of the season. This weekend's opponent, Florida Atlantic, was bet from -5.5 to -7.

Tags: College Football Florida International Panthers Florida Atlantic Owls C-USA



NFL Handicapping: First-year quarterbacks continue to cover pointspreads

09.27.2016     06:49 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For my very first weekly entry discussing the NFL from a betting perspective, I decided to focus on the success rate of first-year and/or rookie starting quarterbacks. For decades, conventional wisdom pointed toward betting against “green” quarterbacks. But there has been a paradigm shift in that regard so far in 2016. There have been six quarterbacks that have made their first ever start in the NFL: Trevor Siemian (Denver), Carson Wentz (Philadelphia), Dak Prescott (Dallas), Jimmy Garoppolo (New England), Jacoby Brissett (New England) and Cody Kessler (Cleveland). Siemien and Wentz appear to be the only two poised to be starter for the duration of the season while others are simply keeping the seat warm. Nevertheless, the collective amount of success from that group through three weeks of the season, specifically from a pointspread perspective, is impressive.

Denver, New England, and Philadelphia are all 3-0 SU/ATS. Dallas is a solid 2-1 SU/ATS. And Cleveland lost to Miami in overtime last week as +9.5 underdogs. The aforementioned group of signal callers have a combined for a 65.7% completion rate and a 15-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio (all 3 INTs via Siemian). They enter Week 4 with a combined 11-2 SU, 12-1 ATS mark. Note too that those five teams have combined for a +13 turnover margin; consistently winning the turnover battle remains and obvious key to pointspread success in the NFL regardless of who takes the snaps. The question now becomes, will these quarterbacks and teams maintain their path or suffer regression?

I certainly am a believer in Wentz. I was unsure of how much to make of wins over woeful Cleveland and Chicago but his performance against Pittsburgh was dominating. Wentz has displayed an aura of poise and calmness in the pocket and has made one great read after another in the passing game despite playing with a middling receiving corps. He has looked wise beyond his years with a 64.7% completion rate, 5-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio and 103.8 QB rating. He’s also backed by an Eagles’ defense that has clearly bought in to Jim Schwartz’s aggressive schemes which completely shut down Ben Roethlisberger and a potent Pittsburgh offense.

Prescott is another of the first-year starters that should retain some ATS value in the weeks ahead. He is a dual threat that can make plays with his feet when the pocket collapses. He also has the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s top offensive lines. Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott continues to get better which coupled with quality weapons at receiver provides Prescott with the blueprint to succeed. The Cowboys have the offense to never be out of a game and could be a good betting option specifically in the underdog role (at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh) in the weeks to come.

It’s not as easy to evaluate the future success of Garoppolo and Brissett because Tom Brady is slated to return in Week 5? Garoppolo looked outstanding in New England’s Week 1 win at Arizona and equally brilliant against Miami before getting injured. Brissett played a clean, mistake free game against Houston while the defense pitched a shutout.

I’m not however sold on Kessler and Siemian. Kessler managed not to make any critical mistakes against Miami but looked panicked at times and got away with a handful of questionable throws. This of course was be expected as Kessler began the season as the third option on the worst team in the league. And while the Browns in theory have value being the lowest power rated squad in the NFL, he has the least upside of the group. Siemian has shown the ability to throw the deep ball with a pair of 40+ yard touchdown strikes to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in last week’s win at Cincinnati. That said, he’s prone to throwing the ball into traffic too often (3 INTs) and has missed on some of the easier short to intermediate throws. His accuracy on shorter passes must improve as well as his decision making. Unlike Kessler, Siemian does have the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s top stop units.

The NFL is notoriously unkind to first-year quarterbacks but thus far, the results have bucked that trend. It’s a matchup league and I think a majority of our group’s success has come due to favorable opponents as well as taking care of the football. Moving forward, struggles are bound occur, but we have proof that betting on first-year and/or rookie quarterbacks is no longer something gamblers should completely avoid.

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos Ian Cameron



NFL Betting Podcast 9-26-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

09.26.2016     10:01 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his famed Opening Line Report for Week 4 of the NFL.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report - Week 4

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



College Football Handicapping: Week 5 early line moves

09.26.2016     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Checking in on some the key betting market early side moves for college football's Week 5 action.

Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green 
CRIS Opener: Eastern Michigan +4.5 
CRIS Current: Eastern Michigan +3

Akron at Kent 
CRIS Opener: Akron -4 
CRIS Current: Akron -6.5 (-7 elsewhere)

Navy at Air Force 
CRIS Opener: Air Force -7 
CRIS Current: Air Force -7.5

 
Tennessee at Georgia 
CRIS Opener: Tennessee -3 
CRIS Current: Tennessee -3.5

Texas at Oklahoma State 
CRIS Opener: Texas +3.5 
CRIS Current: Texas +3

Oklahoma at TCU 
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma -1 
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -3

San Jose State at New Mexico 
CRIS Opener: New Mexico -4.5 
CRIS Current: New Mexico -7.5

Fresno State at UNLV 
CRIS Opener: UNLV -7 
CRIS Current: UNLV -10

Tags: College Football



College Football Handicapping: Golden Nugget Game of the Year vs. CRIS - Week 5

09.26.2016     08:28 AM     Printer Friendly

Week 5's breakdown of Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines vs. CRIS's current numbers. It's a great tool to spot week-to-week changes in perception from oddsmakers and the betting markets.

2016 College Football Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 5
Away
Home
Golden Nugget GOY
CRIS Current
Stanford
Washington
Washington -3
Washington -3.5
Arizona State
USC
USC -11
USC -7.5
Tennessee
Georgia
Georgia pk
Tennessee -3.5
North Carolina
Florida State
Florida State -11.5
Florida State -12
Oklahoma
TCU
Oklahoma -8
Oklahoma -2.5
Texas
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -10
Oklahoma State -3
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan -11.5
Michigan -10.5


Tags: College Football Golden Nugget



NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus goes 0-5 ATS for the second straight week

09.26.2016     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly

UPDATE

Last year, SuperContest consensus plays went a very respectable 45-38 ATS, including a 11-4 ATS through Week 3. This year hasn't gone nearly as smooth as Week 3 marked the second straight 0-5 ATS performance. Interesting to note, the least picked Sunday side is now 3-0 ATS with Philadelphia covering Week 1, Los Angeles Week 2, and Cleveland Week 3.

1. PITTSBURGH -3.5 at Philadelphia - LOSS 
2. ARIZONA -4 at Buffalo - LOSS 
3. TAMPA BAY -5.5 vs. Los Angeles - LOSS 
4. JACKSONVILLE pk vs. Baltimore - LOSS 
5. SAN DIEGO +3 at Indianapolis - LOSS

Year-to-date results 
Week 1: 3-2 
Week 2: 0-5 
Week 3: 0-5




NFL Gambling: SuperContest consensus goes all in on road chalk Pittsburgh and Arizona

09.25.2016     08:23 AM     View Original Blog
Below are the top five consensus picks for Week 3 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. PITTSBURGH -3.5 at Philadelphia 
2. ARIZONA -4 at Buffalo 
3. TAMPA BAY -5.5 vs. Los Angeles 
4. JACKSONVILLE pk vs. Baltimore 
5. SAN DIEGO +3 at Indianapolis

Least picked Sunday side: CLEVELAND +9.5 at Miami




Tags: NFL SuperContest



NFL Gambling: SuperContest consensus goes all in on road chalk Pittsburgh and Arizona

09.25.2016     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top five consensus picks for Week 3 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. PITTSBURGH -3.5 at Philadelphia 
2. ARIZONA -4 at Buffalo 
3. TAMPA BAY -5.5 vs. Los Angeles 
4. JACKSONVILLE pk vs. Baltimore 
5. SAN DIEGO +3 at Indianapolis

Least picked Sunday side: CLEVELAND +9.5 at Miami

Tags: NFL SuperContest Pittsburgh Steelers Arizona Cardinals



NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

09.25.2016     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia 
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Pittsburgh -3.5 O/U 46.5 
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -3.5 O/U 46 
Recommendation: Pittsburgh

Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 to open the season. But those two wins came against Bottom 5 competition, with both the Browns and Bears losing at truly dismal seasons. This is a major step up in class for a team playing on a short week, a mediocre (at best) squad who is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.

Make no mistake about it. Carson Wentz has looked pretty good, with a QB rating of 94 through his first two NFL starts. He’s yet to throw an interception and he’s only been sacked four times in 75 dropbacks. But Jordan Matthews is the only receiver with 100 yards. Despite the success of the passing game, Philly is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. And they’ve only faced bottom tier defenses thus far, with the Browns at the very bottom of any defensive rankings and the Bears suffering a barrage of in-game injuries that left them without five defensive starters in the second half. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t truly elite, but it’s a good notch or two better than anything Wentz and the Eagles offense has seen before.

Philly has looked good defensively against RG3 (who may never start another NFL game) and Jay Cutler (who, if Chicago wasn’t paying him a fortune, might never start another NFL game). The Steelers offense is another animal entirely. Two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger ranks in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. Antonio Brown is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL. Sammie Coates has emerged as a deep threat on every drive. DeAngelo Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards through the first two weeks. The Steelers hung 24 on a top notch defense in lousy weather last week, and there’s no reason to think that Philly’s defense will be able to stop them or that Philly’s offense will be able to trade points. Expect a comfortable win from the road favorite. Take the Steelers.

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Philadelphia Eagles Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans

09.23.2016     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin at Michigan State 
Saturday, 9 am PT - BTN 
CRIS Opener:
Michigan State -6 O/U 45.5 
CRIS Current: Michigan State -5 O/U 42 
Recommendation: Michigan State

What on earth does Michigan State have to do to earn some real respect from the betting markets?   This team went 13-1 in 2013, 11-2 in 2014 and 12-2 last year, rising to elite program status in Mark D’Antonio’s tenth year on the job. But the Spartans suffered some significant graduation losses in the offseason, especially on offense where QB Connor Cook and three of the linemen protecting him went to the NFL.  And then Michigan State looked sluggish in their opener against Furman, never even sniffing the -37.5 point spread in a 28-13 victory.  The betting markets, as they do, dramatically overreacted to that sluggish showing, installing the Spartans as 7.5 point underdogs at Notre Dame last week.  They dominated wire-to-wire in a ‘not as close as the final score’ 36-28 romp.

But the betting markets that didn’t respect Michigan State in 2013 or 2014 (combined 19-8 ATS), and didn’t respect them down the stretch last year still aren’t all that excited about the Spartans in what is perceived to be a ‘letdown’ spot after that huge win over Notre Dame.  I don’t care what kind of spin you want to put on it – a Big 10 home opener against Wisconsin is no ‘letdown’ spot for any team.  And the fact that this has been a tight series in the past – each of the last three meetings has been decided by less than a touchdown – also has the markets devaluing Michigan State in this spot.

I’m not worried about tight games between these two programs in 2011 and 2012 (the most recent meeting), because the Wisconsin program has declined markedly over the past three or four seasons.  Multiple coaching changes haven’t helped matters, but the weakness of the Big 10 West  has kept the Badgers in contention despite their overall decline.  I’m expecting that process to accelerate here in 2016.

Michigan State has no issues without Connor Cook behind center.  Tyler O’Connor lit up Notre Dame’s defense with his arm and his legs last week, as the Spartans ran for 260 and passed for 241 yards against a solid stop unit.  Wisconsin, on the other hand, has serious QB issues.  Senior Bart Houston got benched against Georgia State.  Redshirt frosh Alex Hornibrook has only faced Georgia State at home in his collegiate career.  Neither guy is a particularly good option for Paul Chryst on Saturday.  Expect Badgers scoring drives to be few and far between, especially given all the injures they’ve suffered at running back over the past two weeks.  Spartans win this one by a TD or more.

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Teddy Covers



Sportsmemo's NFL Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 9-23-2016

09.23.2016     11:40 AM     Printer Friendly

copy_nfl_podcast_bar.jpg

Here is Sportsmemo's NFL Every Game on the Board Podcast for Week 3. Handicappers Erin Rynning and Brent Crow joined host Andrew Lange to break down Sunday's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show - NFL Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning Brent Crow Andrew Lange






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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 30, 2016 08:09 AM.