Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Even when I was thinking the Spurs would need to shoot treys like the Knicks if they wanted to beat Memphis, I hadn’t imagined THIS for the start of the Western Conference Finals.

Three-Pointers: Memphis 5 of 12, San Antonio 14 of 29

That’s +9 in makes, which is +27 on the scoreboard, in a game the Spurs won by 22.

Don’t want to get too cute here. We had the KRIB Index for the Knicks when they were making a lot of treys while not turning the ball over (Knicks Re-Invent Basketball). San Antonio was actually +3 in that differential today. SPARE-RIB? SPurs ARE Re-Inventing Basketball? Nah.

And, besides, this kind of ball movement and brains is something we’ve associated with San Antonio for years. It’s important to remember that we were all associating it with them last year at this time, just as they were jumping ahead of Oklahoma City 2-0 before losing four straight. San Antonio plays a beautiful game…which is art when the shots fall. Memphis still has time to make some counter-moves. Plus, the Grizzlies lost the first games vs. the Clippers and Thunder before winning those series anyway.

The rest of the series may not look like this. If it does, it will be over QUICK!

San Antonio 105, Memphis 83

2-Point Percentage: Memphis 44%, San Antonio 55%

3-Point Shooting: Memphis 5/12, San Antonio 14/29

Free Throws: Memphis 14/20, San Antonio 11/14

1’s and 2’s: Memphis 68, San Antonio 63

Rebounds: Memphis 35, San Antonio 33

Turnovers: Memphis 12, San Antonio 11

Talk about art…San Antonio almost made half of their treys at high volume shooting…AND they also shot 55% on deuces! Or…from another direction…the Spurs were 14 of 29 on treys…Tony Parker didn’t shoot any treys, but was 9 of 14 from the floor. Not an exaggeration to say that San Antonio was running circles around the Griz. Heck, that’s literally what they were doing…and it kept freeing up open looks.

Spurs take a 1-0 lead. Game Two is Tuesday. Indiana-Miami doesn’t start until Wednesday.

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Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  With both Conference Finals getting underway, I’ll take a look at the two series, looking for hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspreads success. 
There’s no question that predicting series success correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  This year’s results stand out in that regard.  In the West, Memphis went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs.  San Antonio covered the spread in seven out of ten through the first two rounds. 

In the East, Indiana went 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS mark at home in Indianapolis; five of those six wins coming by a double-digit margin.  And the defending champion and prohibitive favorite to win the title, Miami, despite their public nature, has gone 6-3 ATS in their first two series, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark on the highway – the mark of a strong, veteran championship contender.

When we add it up, we’re talking about 67% or better ATS results here in the postseason from all four teams still standing, with an aggregate mark of 31-11 (73.8%) against the spread.  If you can correctly predict the SU winner of any NBA playoff series and you support that team in every game, you’re likely to emerge with significant pointspread success.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the two series on tap for the next two weeks.

San Antonio vs. Memphis 
I read some reports that the Grizzlies first ever run to the Western Conference Finals was the result of key injuries to their opponents more than any other factor.  The Clippers Blake Griffin got hurt in the first round, and OKC was without Russell Westbrook in Round 2.  That is true.  But the Spurs have been in the exact same situation, getting to face a Kobe-less, dysfunctional Lakers team in the first round, and an overachieving but still relatively limited Warriors squad with David Lee and Steph Curry both hobbled in Round 2. 

Healthy teams win playoff series; banged up squads often struggle in that regard – that’s simply a fact of NBA postseason handicapping.  And it certainly wouldn’t be a stretch to say that any of the four remaining teams that suffers a key injury to one of their stars will be hard pressed to survive and advance to the Finals.

The Spurs opened at -135 over the Grizzlies at the LVH; bet up to -140 by tip-off of Game 1.  That number was adjusted to the -250 range following San Antonio’s Game 1 domination.  If Game 1 was the first game you’ve watched in the playoffs, you’d probably think this series is a complete mismatch.  The Spurs ran circles around the Grizzlies, repeatedly breaking down the Memphis defense with dribble penetration from Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. 

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies defensive rotations were a mess, leaving wide open shooters on the perimeter as they packed the paint to stop San Antonio from driving for easy layups.  The result was a franchise career playoff high 14 made three pointers from the Spurs as part of a 53% shooting effort overall, including four trifectas each from role players Matt Bonner and Kawhi Leonard.

On the defensive end of the court, San Antonio had the better gameplan as well, concentrating on shutting down the Grizzlies low post duo of Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol, a duo that tore up the Clippers and Thunder in the first two rounds.  Randolph was held to 1-of-8 shooting without a single free throw attempt in a passive performance.  His postgame quote: “Ain’t no excuse.  They did a good job.  You have to give them credit.”

The Spurs low post depth gave Randolph and Gasol problems all afternoon.  Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw pushed the Grizzlies bigs around, and the Spurs usually had one of their guards ready and waiting to double team Memphis in paint, forcing their big men to kick the ball out to the perimeter.  For a team that ranked #30 out of 30 NBA teams in three pointers attempted and three pointers made during the regular season, the sudden reliance on perimeter jumpers – reserve forward Quincy Pondexter was the only Grizzly to made a shot from beyond the arc – doomed Memphis’ chances.

We saw this once before in the playoffs – the Grizzlies Game 1 blowout loss in their first game of the first round at the LA Clippers.  The Grizz weren’t ready to go then either, allowing 55% shooting while getting outrebounded by 24 in an ugly 22 point loss.  Of course, Memphis bounced back strong, winning every remaining game in the series.

But Vinny Del Negro is no Greg Popovich.  The Grizzlies also lost Game 1 at OKC in SU fashion, then won the next four games of that series as well.  But Scott Brooks is no Greg Popovich either.  San Antonio’s gameplan here in the postseason has been brilliant, and Coach Pop deserves as much credit as we can give him.  I’m not convinced that Memphis has the appropriate adjustments in their repertoire.  San Antonio might not have another game 1 type blowout in them, but their bench depth and gameplan give them a clear edge in the series.

Miami vs. Indiana 
The Pacers gave the Heat a legitimately tough test on Miami’s championship run last year; taking a 2-1 series lead in the conference semi-finals before dropping each of the last three games.  Indiana also gave Miami trouble during the regular season this year, winning two of the three regular season meetings by double digit margins.  It is worth noting, however, that both of Indiana’s wins over the Heat here in 2013 came before the All-Star break; before the

Heat turned it up a notch for their stretch run.Here in the postseason, this series has been priced like a non-competitive first round matchup.  At the LVH here in Vegas, the Heat are -750 at the opener to win the series, while bettors will get an attractive +550 price if the Pacers can pull off the upset.  There’s no question that some of that price tag is based on reputation. 

The defending champs have been a ‘hype’ team all year with household name superstars, while the small market Pacers are completely anonymous when it comes to star power.  That being said, Miami has been to the Finals in each of the last two years, while Indiana hasn’t reached the Finals since the Lakers were three-peating more than a decade ago.  Yes, the Heat deserve to be prohibitive favorites, even if that -750 price tag looks a tad bit high.

In theory, the Pacers match up fairly well with Miami.  The Heat are not a dominant low post team while Indiana is big and bulky in the paint.  In the three regular season meetings, Indiana won the rebounding battle by 33 boards; at least +5 in every game.  Miami’s Big Three had modest success, but their supporting cast did not.

And I respect when Indiana head coach Frank Vogel is saying and doing to get his relatively inexperienced squad ready for the media crunch and postseason hype: “This is not about getting back at Miami. If you're in the final four, you're competing for a championship. You're competing for a championship. And they're just the next team that's in our way.”

Star power and championship experience go a long way when it comes to winning playoff series.  Even though I expect Indiana to give Miami a battle – they’re not going to roll over – the value to support Indiana on the series price is only worth something if they can actually win the series, or come close enough to give bettors a chance to hedge off at a positive expectation price.  And, frankly, that’s not something I think the Pacers are capable of doing.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A new series starts Sunday. Let’s review regular season performance in the stat categories we’ve been studying in in the college and pro postseasons. Note that these are regular season only numbers. Prefer using an 82-game sample with similar strengths of schedule. Then we can pencil in what we’ve learned so far in the playoffs if need be.

(5) Memphis: 47% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +1.5 TO’S, 4.7 treys, #29 full season pace

(2) S. Antonio: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 full season pace

Pretty clear differences there once you get past two-point defense. And, the whole world was at 47% in that category anyway if you’ll recall from our first round previews!

MEMPHIS is the “defense and rebounding wins championships” team, with a huge edge on the glass, and a proven ability to force a lot of turnovers. During the regular season we encouraged you to think of them as the Chicago Bears of the NBA because of that ability. Memphis won turnover differential against OKC by 22 in the last round.

SAN ANTONIO is suddenly the “they need to make three-pointers to compete” team, making this very much like Indiana-New York in a lot of ways. Well, if New York had any brains and personnel continuity. The Spurs can be bullied inside. Memphis is a bully team. The Spurs need to cash in that +3.4 differential in made treys on a continual basis. San Antonio won’t self-destruct the way the Knicks did. I'm a little uncomfortable comparing the Spurs to the Knicks after we just watched New York's tribute to cluelessness. But, not much has really changed since Memphis upset the Spurs in the playoffs two years ago. It will be stylistically similar to Pacers/Knicks with a much smarter team trying to avoid having will imposed on them.

It may prove telling that Memphis is the slow team while San Antonio is the fast team.  Things get slow in the playoffs, which moves right into the Grizzlies’ comfort zone. Can San Antonio push tempo if they can’t rebound?

You guys know I prefer the power team as a general rule. I think Memphis has a slight edge that could prove to be a bigger edge than expected…regardless of what the current market odds are suggesting. We’ll see. The Spurs have home court advantage if the series goes seven.

My estimate of market Power Ratings for the last four teams…

88: Miami

84: San Antonio, Memphis

83: Indiana

Haven’t seen an opener for Game One of Indiana/Miami yet. San Antonio/Memphis is being priced as if the teams are about even given what the market’s been doing for Grizzlies games thus far. Personally, I might stick the Spurs at 83 or 83.5. Let’s see how things look after three or four games. Memphis has dropped series openers to both the Clippers and Thunder, but are 8-1 otherwise.

Back with you Sunday night to run the numbers from Game One. I’ll put together statline notes for Pacers/Heat to run just before that series tips off. Thanks again for being a blog reader!

For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.

UFC on FX 8 
Saturday, May 18 – Santa Catarina, Brazil 
Main Card starts 9pm/6pm ET/PT 
Prelims Fuel TV 6pm/3pm ET/PT 
Prelims Facebook 4:30/1:30 ET/PT

John Lineker -140 vs. Azamat Gashimov 
Recommendation: Lineker  
  
This is another stellar UFC card on FX from Brazil. Back in January at UFC FX 7, from Sao Paulo, Brazil, we saw Brazilian fighters win eight of 11 fights including the headliner where Vitor Belfort TKO'd Michael Bisping. Home cooking and being able to fight in your home country seems to be worth quite a bit. I haven't put a number like 50 cents for a matchup or exactly what home advantage is, but the percentage of wins is close to 70% for non-USA events. Japan has the highest winning rate due to the extreme time change. 
  
John Lineker (20-6, 1-1 UFC) is a gutsy aggressive Brazilian MMA fighter from Mao-de-Pedra. He lost his UFC debut to Louis Gaudinot a year ago and won his last fight this past November defeating Yasuhiro Urushitani by unanimous decision. What we like most about Lineker is his unlimited cardio. In the loss to Gaudinot it was a slugfest early on, and then and both fighters were trading positions on the ground. Lineker got caught in a guillotine choke but never gave up. He has knock-out power in both hands, hence his nick name "Hands of Stone." 
  
Azamat Gashimov (7-2, 0-1 UFC) is a very tall fighter at 5' 9" and is dropping down in weight to flyweight for this fight at 125 pounds. He lost his UFC debut to a very good fighter Ivan Menjivar by submission, and he has the one main weakness that most tall fighters have. They get taken down very easily. Gashimov has a solid amateur wrestling background from Russia, but lacks the overall MMA skills and experience to win this fight in my opinion. Thus we see Lineker having his way in this contest with either a striking battle or getting the majority of the takedowns.

Cincinnati (Latos) -155 at Miami (Fernandez) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Under

Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13 innings and permitted only 12 base runners while striking out 16 and walking three. For the season he owns an extremely solid 1.16 WHIP. Bullpens are deep enough and strong enough to keep the back third closed here even if Aroldis Chapman doesn’t pitch due to his 26 pitches last night. Despite the low 7 number currently posted, this one sets up nicely for a play on the under.  

Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno. Ian broke down the entire NHL Playoffs card while Rob talked MLB.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - NHL Playoffs

Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Washington (Strasburg) -140 at San Diego (Volquez) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Under

The Nationals lineup has gone ice cold.  They’ve plated just ten runs in their last five games, and nearly half of those runs came in three innings against Josh Beckett, who went on the DL following that outing.  The Nats have 46 strikeouts during that span, while hitting .133 with runners in scoring position.  Padres starter Edison Volquez threw seven innings of three hit, one run ball in his lone start against Washington last year.  And Volquez has been dominant in each of his last two home starts here at Petco: 13.2 innings of work, nine hits and one run against two pretty good hitting lineups – Milwaukee and Arizona.  It’s surely worth noting that the Nats have been held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors.

Stephen Strasburg hasn’t won since opening day, and he’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts; his worst back-to-back showings since right before he needed Tommy John surgery in August of his rookie year.  Don’t think for a minute that something is not right with Washington’s ace – his peripheral numbers are just fine, and half of those eight runs allowed were unearned.  The San Diego native is making his first career start at Petco tonight in front of hundreds of friends and family; an optimal spot for a gem against a Padres squad coming off a cross-country flight last night.  I don’t play many Unders in this total range, but this is one spot where the Under is primed to cash! 

 

Las Vegas' Downtown Grand Casino will feature a William Hill run sportsbook.

 

Boston (Doubront) at Tampa Bay (Cobb) -137 O/U 8

After skipping a start and making some mechanical adjustments, Boston's Felix Doubront is back on this hill this evening in Tampa. Doubront was fairly effective his first four starts (23.1 IP, 20 hits, 29 Ks, 13 BBs) but fell apart his last two (9 IP, 23 hits, .489 BAA). His velocity in those starts was significantly down which suggests the problems could be arm related. We recommend taking a wait-and-see approach.

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Though there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played…there’s already a rumbling that the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat are on a collision course for the NBA Finals. Both wrapped up their second round series in five games Wednesday Night. 

Memphis 88, Oklahoma City 84

2-Point Percentage: Memphis 40%, Oklahoma City 42%

3-Point Shooting: Memphis 3/14, Oklahoma City 6/25

Free Throws: Memphis 25/29, Oklahoma City 16/21

1’s and 2’s: Memphis 79, Oklahoma City 66

Rebounds: Memphis 45, Oklahoma City 44

Turnovers: Memphis 9, Oklahoma City 14

Memphis blew a big lead…then blew a big lead AGAIN before frantically holding on in the final moments. Kevin Durant of OKC stayed out of gas…only shooting 5 of 21 on the evening. I’m hoping statheads who generally decry “inventing a narrative” are learning to think a bit more about that. If you’re really watching the NBA Playoffs closely, you see teams or star players get tired. It’s a thing that actually happens. Always been clear. More statheads are writing about the playoffs these days, and are therefore watching with a closer eye. Not everything is variance. Fatigue is real.

Turnovers continued to be a tie-breaker in the series matchup. In the games they won, Memphis was +9, +1, +9, and +5 in that stat. They knew going in they weren’t like to win treys because they don’t shoot all that many by league standards. Winning turnovers helped them win 1’s and 2’s by margins of 21, 9, 15, and 13 in their victories.

Memphis gets a bit of a rest break. They will either play San Antonio Sunday in Game One of the Western Finals, or they’ll wait even longer to play the winner of a Spurs/Warriors Game Seven that would be that day. The Spurs would have home court over Memphis, while Memphis would have home court vs. Golden State.

Earlier Wednesday…

Miami 94, Chicago 91

2-Point Percentage: Chicago 45%, Miami 53%

3-Point Shooting: Chicago 8/19, Miami 6/21

Free Throws: Chicago 17/24, Miami 24/33

1’s and 2’s: Chicago 67, Miami 76

Rebounds: Chicago 40, Miami 32

Turnovers: Chicago 14, Miami 10

It's fun to imagine that Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra read the blog after Monday’s Game Four in Chicago…thought to himself “Man, Fogle’s Ric Flair/PatRose wrestling analogy was PERFECT! But, that may have seemed kind of obscure to some of his readers. So, to drive home the point, LET’S DO IT AGAIN!”

The Heat teased everyone most of the evening, then rallied late to win the game and end the series. Chicago fans got their hopes up again. Hey…win this…win at home in Game Six…then anything can happen in Game Seven! At least Pat Rose knew he was putting on a show.

I’ll start thinking that Miami can lose in the East when either Indiana or New York wins three games from them. I’ll start thinking Miami can lose the finals when the Western Champ wins a couple. I’m not saying Miami is a lock. I’m saying that judging Miami’s vulnerabilities during the games when they’re coasting can paint a misleading picture. I kept making that mistake last year. Wade’s lack of form has opened the door. There are teams left that can kick it down. I’m waiting until I see a big boot.

Miami awaits the winner of Indiana/New York. The Heat will have home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

Updating home court advantage, since we’ve been doing that on a nightly basis. These are regulation –only numbers. Overtime scoring isn’t counted so we can keep everything at an even 48 minutes per game.

Average Home Result: 3.4-point win

Median Home Result: 2-point win

2013 Playoff Victory Margin Number Line (Median in parenthesis)

Road Wins: 23-21-21-14-14-13-11-10-10-10-9-9-8-8-8-7-7-7-6-6-6-4-3-3

Overtimes: 0-0-0-0-0

Home Wins: 2-(2-2)-2-2-3-3-3-4-6-7-7-11-11-11-11-12-12-12-13-14-15-16-17-17-18-19-21-21-21-23-23-26-29-37

For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.

WSOP.com is expected to be the second Nevada-based, real money, online poker site. Ultimate Poker was the first but issues – like two of the same cards in a deck – have quelled most people’s excitement.

Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s two NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides 
Miami -14 - 62.1% 
Oklahoma City -4.5 - 51.5%

Totals 
Memphis-Oklahoma City OVER 185 - 74.7% 
Chicago-Miami UNDER 181 - 51.9%

Moneyline 
Chicago +1300 - 86.9% 
Memphis +175 - 67.8%

Washington (Detwiler) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) -140 O/U 6.5

Just over a month removed from breaking his left collarbone, Zach Greinke is back on the hill. Originally slated to miss eight weeks, Greinke is reportedly good to go after throwing 80 pitches in a recent rehab start.

 

NY Mets (Marcum) at St. Louis (Miller) -210 O/U 8 
Recommendation: Over

"It's definitely the best game I've thrown in my life.”  That was Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller’s quote following his truly dominant 13 strikeout, one hit complete game shutout over the Rockies in his last outing.  But Miller matched his career high in pitches thrown in that contest; and it’s only the second time all season he’s averaged less than 16 pitches per inning. Coming off the "best game of his life", I’m expecting significant ‘regression to the mean’ from Miller this evening.

Mets starter Shaun Marcum is an even stronger bet against candidate this evening.  Since starting the season on the DL, Marcum has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his starts, with an 8.59 ERA and a whopping .400 batting average against.  Mets manager Terry Collins: “I think Shaun tried to hurry through the rehab and get up here because he knew we needed help.  I think we've got to run him out there again because, as I said the last start, he's basically towards the end of spring training.” 

It’s surely worth noting that Marcum has a miserable recent track record against the Cardinals, including two ugly losses in the 2011 NLCS and another poor showing against them at Busch Stadium last year.  St. Louis flew Over the total all by themselves yesterday, their third straight OVER cash, while the Mets are 24-11-1 to the Over so far in 2013, the second strongest Over team (behind Oakland) in all of baseball. 

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers 

Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian, Erin Rynning, and Alf Musketa. Ian and Erin broke down the entire MLB card while Alf talked tonight's two NBA Playoff matchups as well PGA and UFC.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - National League

Erin Rynning - American League (Free Play)

Alf Musketa - NBA Playoffs, PGA, and UFC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s always dangerous to think that you’ve seen a team officially run out of gas. Golden State is a young group that could find another wind at home in front of a loud crowd Thursday night. And, there’s an extra day off waiting afterward because Game Seven wouldn’t be until Sunday.

Unfortunately, if you’re a Warriors fan:

*Golden State couldn’t win in regulation in the first two games at home

*Steph Curry looks utterly wiped out

*Andrew Bogut seems to be wearing down

*You’re not going to win two-in-a-row from the Spurs without Curry and Bogut in leadership positions

The stage is set for a potential Warriors rally because of that extra day off. The team will have a lot of days off if Curry and Bogut can’t rejuvenate by Thursday.

San Antonio 109, Golden State 91

2-Point Percentage: Golden State 49%, San Antonio 54%

3-Point Shooting: Golden State 6/16, San Antonio 10/21

Free Throws: Golden State 15/23, San Antonio 19/25

1’s and 2’s: Golden State 73, San Antonio 79

Rebounds: Golden State 36, San Antonio 38

Turnovers: Golden State 14, San Antonio 10

Earlier this evening, we talked about how surprising it was that Indiana has more made treys than New York through four games. San Antonio just tied Golden State through five games at 41 made treys apiece. Most important to me is that the Spurs won rebounding for the first time. Sure, it was only +2. That slows down what had been +33 the other way.

I’m a numbers guy. Allowing 54% on deuces while losing rebounding looks like a red flag combo for running out of gas compared to GS’s standards in the prior games. Maybe it was just “we don’t have it tonight, let’s come back strong Thursday.” We’ll know soon enough.

Updating home court advantage numbers after a rare night with two home blowouts…

Average Home Result: 3.5-point win

Median Home Result: 2-point win

That’s through 62 playoff games. Here’s a number line of those 62 games (using 0's for overtimes to keep everything at 48 minutes)…

2013 Playoff Victory Margin Number Line (Median in parenthesis)

Road Wins: 23-21-21-14-14-13-11-10-10-10-9-9-8-8-8-7-7-7-6-6-6-3-3

Overtimes: 0-0-0-0-0

Home Wins: 2-2-(2-2)-2-3-3-4-6-7-7-11-11-11-11-12-12-12-13-14-15-16-17-17-18-19-21-21-21-23-23-26-29-37

For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I doubt there’s any basketball fan or bettor who expected the Indiana Pacers to have made more treys than the New York Knicks through four games of their second round NBA Playoff series. Even the most optimistic Pacers fans, or confident Pacers bettors would have conceded that category to the Knicks. In the regular season, Indiana averaged 6.9 made treys per game while the Knicks were way up at 10.9.

Yet… 
 Made Treys Thru 4 Games

New York: 28

Indiana: 34

Indiana was going to own the inside game. New York needed to make up for that with long range shooting. Instead, Indiana’s been even more dominant than expected inside the arc…while also winning treys.

You regulars know about our “Imposing of Will” stat. No surprise that tonight was another slaughter. You might be surprised to learn Tuesday’s game was actually Indiana’s best performance of the series in two-point shooting allowed plus rebound percentage allowed.

Imposing of Will (lower is better)

Game One: Indiana 86, New York 114

Game Two: New York 103, Indiana 109

Game Three: Indiana 80, New York 95

Game Four: Indiana 79, New York 105

The Pacers won rebounding 54 to 36 Tuesday, meaning they grabbed 60% of the game’s rebounds and only let the Knicks have 40%. Not exactly rising to the occasion from the Knicks perspective in a game they badly needed.

The numbers…

Indiana 93, New York 82

2-Point Percentage: New York 39%, Indiana 45%

3-Point Shooting: New York 8/28, Indiana 8/25

Free Throws: New York 12/14, Indiana 23/30

1’s and 2’s: New York 58, Indiana 69

Rebounds: New York 36, Indiana 54

Turnovers: New York 9, Indiana 12

Didn’t get a chance to watch. The twitterverse was adamant about how dumb it was for New York to go away from their normal three-point based offense for the second game in a row. Since the final numbers show 28 attempts, we can assume that they started launching a bunch of treys in desperation mode after they had fallen way behind.

Mostly an emasculating boxscore for a Knicks team that people already think of as soft:

*Outrebounded by a ridiculous degree for such a respected seed

*Bullied in the paint

*Only got to the line 14 times while putting Indiana there 30 times

There’s just no way for the Knicks to even be competitive with numbers like that. Maybe Indiana falls asleep again in Game Five in New York because their series lead is so comfortable. Can New York win in Indiana to stay alive? The Pacers have five double digit wins in five playoff home games. This series feels like it’s over.

It might be over as quickly as Thursday because the Knicks sure look like a wilted flower. We’ve seen so many playoff teams showing the will to fight. The Knicks lack of fire is glaring. This isn’t a sport where the softer team rallies from 3-1 deficits. 

Would think about Indiana (+) in Game Five, and then come back on them in Game Six if Game Five gets used as a rest break to prepare for Game Six.

For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.

The second leg of the Triple Crown goes Saturday as Kentucky Derby winner Orb is the betting favorite to with the 138th Preakness. Last year, I'll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness but scratched at the Belmont Stakes. This year's Preakness field is currently down to only nine horses. Derby contender Goldencents looks to bounce back after a disappointing 17th-place finish. Pinnacle currently has Orb at -124 to win the Preakness and +286 to win the Triple Crown.

Seattle (Iwakuma) at NY Yankees (Hughes) -120 O/U 7.5

Good article on the emergence of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma. In eight starts, Iwakuma sports a 1.74 ERA with 51 strikeouts and only eight walks. We'd expect him to regress some moving forward (51.2 IP, 30 hits, .198 BABIP) but his success isn't a total fluke considering his vast array of pitches and control.

Great article on FanGraphs about how past batter vs. pitcher results are poor indicators of how to predict the future – in part because both entities change over time. One example in play tonight is Seattle's decision to put Raul Ibanez at DH despite the fact that he's lefty and CC Sabathia eats lefties for dinner (.167 BAA). It is a similar argument to (insert pitcher) sports a (insert bad ERA) at (insert stadium) despite the fact that said pitcher hasn't thrown there in three years and 85% of the lineup that crushed him is gone. They OWN him, man!

Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s two NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides 
Golden State +7 - 67.1% 
New York +5.5 - 58.0%

Totals 
New York-Indiana OVER 180 - 60.4% 
Golden State-San Antonio 195 - 50%

Moneyline 
Golden State +270 - 78.4% 
New York +190 - 70.8%

San Francisco (Zito) +123 at Toronto (Dickey) O/U 9 
Recommendation: San Francisco

It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays as chalk these days.  High priced offseason acquisition RA Dickey hasn’t won a game in nearly a month, allowing 17 runs in 25 innings of work over his last four outings, all Toronto defeats.  Dickey was favored in three of those four losses, just as he is today.   For a guy who was 43-55 with an ERA well over 4.00 prior to last season’s remarkable Cy Young campaign, the 2012 season is looking more and more like an aberration, not a sign of continued success to come.

Toronto has no discernible home field edge right now, 7-12 at the Rogers Centre compared to their 8-12 road mark.  From a run differential standpoint, the Blue Jays -47 ranks as the third worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the two true bottom feeders: Miami and Houston.  In other words, there is absolutely nothing fraudulent about the Blue Jays struggles.  Bettors who have faded Toronto on a nightly basis are cashing in; a bottom five team in terms of profitability.

Meanwhile, the defending champs continue to take advantage of betting market indifference towards them; ranked #3 in the NL in terms of profitability.  Their big bats are heating up right now, pounding out 23 runs while taking the final three games of their last series against Atlanta while getting legitimate contributions from everybody in the lineup. 

All Barry Zito does these days is win.  The Giants are 5-2 in his seven starts this year, after winning each of his final 14 starts to close out 2012, and Zito has allowed a single earned run or less in each of his last four outings.  And yet Toronto is taking big money from the wiseguy betting syndicates today, driving this line up as high as -140 in some spots!  Not my money – wrong team favored here! 

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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Sammy P, Teddy Covers, and Erin Rynning. Sam talked NHL Stanley Cup Conference Semifinals while Teddy and Erin went through every game on the MLB card.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Sammy P - NHL Playoffs

Teddy Covers - National League

Erin Rynning - American League (Free Play)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The night is running late so let’s jump right into the numbers…

Memphis 103, Oklahoma City 97 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: Oklahoma City 42%, Memphis 42%

3-Point Shooting: Oklahoma City 9/20, Memphis 6/17

Free Throws: Oklahoma City 20/22, Memphis 25/29

1’s and 2’s: Oklahoma City 70, Memphis 85

Rebounds: Oklahoma City 44, Memphis 41

Turnovers: Oklahoma City 15, Memphis 7

An inverse of Game One. This time, it was Oklahoma City as the road team blowing a big lead (up 17 at one point), so Memphis as the home team could “steal” a win. The Grizzlies had to go overtime to do it. In fact, Oklahoma City won G1 by a 93-91 score, while this one went OT at 94-94. Those two cancel out. The other two games in the series were 6-point Memphis wins (one at each site).

Average Regulation Result: Memphis by 2.5

Memphis is now +17 in turnover differential, which is looming large amidst these tight finishes. They’ve won 1’s and 2’s by 21, 9, and 15 points since dropping the opener. OKC hasn’t been able to make enough treys to counteract.

Once again, Durant seemed to lose his legs deep into the game. Though, everyone was shooting poorly during an 18-18 fourth quarter and a grinder overtime. It’s just that…OKC’s in deep trouble whenever Durant loses his legs because he’s carrying such a heavy burden. They built a 17-point lead before he got tired and it still wasn’t enough.

Condolences to those of you rooting for OKC (+5). Tough way to lose in overtime. Memphis has now covered NINE straight against the Vegas line. Game Five is Wednesday in OKC, where the Thunder will be a short favorite with an Over/Under in the mid 180’s.

Earlier Monday night…

Miami 88, Chicago 65

2-Point Percentage: Miami 54%, Chicago 30%

3-Point Shooting: Miami 6/18, Chicago 2/17

Free Throws: Miami 16/21, Chicago 2/17

1’s and 2’s: Miami 70, Chicago 59

Rebounds: Miami 36, Chicago 46

Turnovers: Miami 16, Chicago 17

Not going to talk much about this one. Chicago ran out of gas awhile ago. Would have been a sweep if Miami didn’t sleepwalk through the first game just as Chicago was firing its last salvo energy-wise. Miami is +70 on the scoreboard in the three games since. Miami will wrap things up as a double digit favorite Wednesday…then will rest up again while hoping Indiana/New York goes deep.

The Western Conference game going overtime gave me an extra few minutes to update the home court advantage numbers.

Home Court Advantage through 60 Playoff games

Average: 3.11

Median: 2

Miami scored the biggest road win by anyone in the playoffs this year Monday night. That plus the OT game pushed the median in direction of net zero. Pretty safe to assume Miami’s next home game will help pull it back the other direction though. Here’s the updated number line of regulation results.

2013 Playoff Victory Margin Number Line (Median in parenthesis)

Road Wins: 23-21-21-14-14-13-11-10-10-10-9-9-8-8-8-7-7-7-6-6-6-3-3

Overtimes: 0-0-0-0-0

Home Wins: 2-(2-2)-2-2-3-3-4-6-7-7-11-11-11-12-12-12-13-14-15-16-17-17-19-21-21-21-23-23-26-29-37

For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.

Geesh. Former World Series of Poker champ and Ultimate Bet owner Russ Hamilton admits to being a piece of shit.