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NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

10.01.2014     02:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Arizona at Denver 
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener:
Denver -8.5 O/U 49.5 
CRIS Current: Denver -7 O/U 48.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -7.5 
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The defending AFC champion Broncos have yet to cover a pointspread in three tries this season; one of only three teams that are winless ATS (the Jets at 0-3-1 ATS and the Jaguars at 0-4 ATS are the other two).  But all three of the Broncos ATS defeats deserve at least a little bit of an asterisk attached to them.

In Week 1, Denver was in complete control throughout against the Colts, but Indy made a late rally thanks to a recovered onside kick to lose by only seven points as 7.5 point underdogs.  The following week, the Broncos were again comfortably in control against the Chiefs but a serious of penalties and ‘third and long’ conversions allowed KC to hang around.  The Broncos offense only had two drives for the entire second half, leaving Peyton Manning sitting on the sidelines for extended stretches.  And the Broncos rallied in the fourth quarter as underdogs at Seattle only to lose the coin toss in overtime.  The Seahawks methodically marched down the field against the Broncos defense to score the game winning and spread covering touchdown on the first drive of OT, again leaving Manning sitting on the sideline.

I didn’t downgrade the Broncos power rating following any of those three ATS losses.  While Manning isn’t taking many downfield shots at this stage of his career, his remarkable accuracy on short throws makes this dink-and-dunk attack extremely difficult to stop.  And, after facing a trio of playoff caliber teams to open up the campaign, this is no step-up-in-class game for the home favorite.   That being said, Denver’s 0-3 ATS mark to open the season tells us clearly that if you’re looking for undervalued commodities in the NFL betting marketplace, you’re not going to find one in Denver.

Arizona, on the other hand, has been an undervalued commodity since Bruce Arians came to town; 13-6 ATS since the start of the 2013 campaign.  Their Week 1 come-from-behind win over San Diego looks even better know, considering that the Chargers haven’t lost a game since.  Their Week 2 win against the Giants also looks even better now because the Giants haven’t lost since.  And the Week 3 win against the 49ers with backup QB Drew Stanton was particularly impressive – their defense didn’t allow a point following the Niners first two drives of the game.

Trend bettors are going to have a tough time deciding which side is worth backing here.  Denver is 13-5 ATS as a regular-season home favorite since 2012 but Arizona is 8-3 in their last eleven tries as an underdog, including a truly impressive road win at Seattle; now 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five tries on the highway.

Arizona has more chuck it downfield for big plays potential than Denver does these days.  The Broncos big plays on offense are usually caused by blown coverages or missed tackles.  Arizona’s elite defense (only 5.0 yards per play allowed) doesn’t blow many coverages or miss many tackles, especially with extra time to prepare for Manning and company AND with Antonio Cromartie expected to return to the lineup following a knee injury.

Arizona’s offense isn’t comparable with Denver’s by any stretch of the imagination, even with Palmer back in the fold.  And the 2014 Denver defense has been dominant for extended stretches this season, despite some clear late game conditioning issues.  I’m expecting long, slow drives once again on Sunday, heling keep this game Under the total.  Take the Under.

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Teddy Covers

College Footbal Betting Preview: Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

10.01.2014     02:24 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Stanford at Notre Dame 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - NBC 
CRIS Opener:
Stanford -2.5 O/U 41.5 
CRIS Current: Stanford -1.5 O/U 44 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Stanford -1.5 
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Notre Dame

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish looks to remain undefeated with their toughest challenge of the season, the Stanford Cardinal, on tap for Saturday. I successfully bet against Stanford as 8-point road favorites last week in its 20-13 win on the road against Washington. The Cardinal is definitely one of the contenders in the PAC-12 but I think they are somewhat overvalued in the betting markets as oddsmakers respect their defense but don’t realize how difficult it can be to move the ball at times.  They controlled most of the game vs. Washington with a 364-179 total yards edge but three turnovers and problems converting drives into points prevented them from putting the Huskies away. I think that is a concern heading into this week.

This is a bit of a tough spot for Stanford playing their second straight road game and having to travel east for an afternoon kick off. They also be going up against a Notre Dame squad looking to avenge last season’s 27-20 loss.The Irish’s ability to stop the run (3.3 ypc allowed) could be their key to success as I still don’t trust quarterback Kevin Hogan to make the plays necessary in the passing game to win on the road for a second straight week. Hogan was mediocre last week against Washington completing just 17-for-26 passes with a touchdown and an interception.

On the flip side, I expect Notre Dame’s offense to have more success than they had against Stanford than last year and much of that is due to the return of Everett Golson. Tommy Rees was under center in last year’s contest and was held to a below 50% completions. Golson, with his arm and legs, should allow Notre Dame to move the ball with more consistency. Note than Golson was at the helm when Notre Dame won 20-13 in South Bend back in 2012.

Stanford has repeatedly struggled as road chalk of late with a 2-5 ATS skid over its last games as favorites outside of Palo Alto. But the biggest key is my projection of an even matchup in the trenches. That’s where much of the game will be decided and if Notre Dame can contain Stanford’s ground attack, they’ll move to 5-0.

Tags: College Football Stanford Cardinal PAC-12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Ian Cameron

College Football Betting Podcast 10-1-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning

10.01.2014     12:17 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wedneday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian, Erin, and host Andrew Lange talked PAC-12 and Big Ten.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - PAC-12 Report

Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football PAC-12 Big Ten Ian Cameron Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Alert: Atlanta Falcons lose two offensive linemen

10.01.2014     08:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Atlanta at New York Giants -4.5 O/U 50

Cluster injuries for the Atlanta Falcons with two season-enders to offensive linemen Joe Hawley and Lamar Holmes. The defense also lost safety William Moore (shoulder) for up to eight weeks. The Giants opened Sunday's game -3 but have since been bet up to -4/-4.5.

"We feel like we had good depth in our offensive line," Koetter said. "Now we've lost three or four guys who were experienced players for us. It will definitely be a challenge but we feel like these guys are up to the challenge."

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons New York Giants

Pro sports leagues and NCAA really don't want New Jersey sports betting to happen

10.01.2014     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
You knew damn well that the four major pro sports leagues and the NCAA were going to make a stink about New Jersey being “inches” away from full-on sports betting. And that's exactly what they did as a motion was filed to stop the state attorney general's potential approval. Meanwhile, an adviser to Monmouth Park said to expect everything to be operational by Halloween. Based on how this saga has played out, that’s code for $5 parlay cards by 2018.

“The … authorization of sports gambling in New Jersey would irreparably harm amateur and professional sports by fostering suspicion that individual plays and final scores of games may have been influenced by factors other than honest athletic competition,” the complaint reads.

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons New York Giants

College Football Betting Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans

10.01.2014     06:22 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Nebraska at Michigan State  
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC 
CRIS Opener:
Michigan State -8 O/U 58 
CRIS Current: Michigan State -7 O/U 58 
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Michigan State -10 
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation: Michigan State

Thanks to yesterday's market move we can step in and grab the key number of -7 with Michigan State as it plays host to Nebraska this Saturday. The Spartans were as high as -9 on Monday but some bettors appear to be buying into the Cornhuskers' 5-0 start.

In typical Nebraska fashion we've seen flashes of solid play as well as ineptitude throughout the first month of the season. They were lucky to beat FCS McNeese State, crushed Fresno on the road, played "box score even" with Miami, and then bashed Illinois who was without its starting quarterback. During those swatch of games, the Cornhuskers establishing a run-first identity with over 1,774 yards and nearly 7 ypc. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. looks to be a good fit but I have questions whether or not NU can move the football if the run game is held in check. Because of Nebraska’s ability to run the football and play with big leads, Armstrong hasn't been tested. But after failing to play a team in the top 50 in rush defense (3 of the 4 currently rank 100 or worse), the Cornhuskers go on the road to face the sixth-best unit in the country.

While it'll be difficult to duplicate last year's defensive prowess, Michigan State appears to have taken the next step offensively. Connor Cook has settled in as a high percentage passer (70.0% YTD) that can stretch the field (10.7 ypa, 5th nationally). I actually upgraded MSU following its road loss at Oregon. The Spartans outplayed the Ducks for the entire first half a feat not a lot of teams can lay claim to. Yes, they wore down late. But playing in that environment in Week 1 is a huge challenge and not one a lot of teams (including Nebraska) would have been able to handle.

The price of this game is saying that the gap between these two teams has lessened considerably. Last year, the Spartans were laying -5.5 in Lincoln and won 41-28. NU actually "won" the box score but a -5 TO margin was too much to overcome. But don't feel as if it were a complete anomaly; NU's TO margin in 2012 and 2013 was a combined -23. And despite winning by an average of 26.4 ppg, they are only +1 through five games. I bring that up because this is the exact type of game where "little things" determine the winner. A costly turnover, dumb penalty, questionable coaching decision on the road in a hostile environment those are things we can can expect from this underdog. And it'll be the difference as the home side laying a touchdown is the play. Also note the massive change in the total. Last year’s meeting closed 41 whereas we see a current market number of 58.

Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Andrew Lange

NBA Handicapping: Westgate releases 2014-15 Season Over/Under Wins

10.01.2014     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly

Below is a chart of the Westgate's NBA Season Over/Under Wins. We've listed the opening numbers, last year's records, as well as the difference. Most teams are expected to improve or decline by a handful of wins. The exceptions of course are the Miami Heat (-10.5 wins) without LeBron; the Cleveland Cavaliers (+25.5) with LeBron and Kevin Love; and Indiana Pacers (-23.5) without Paul George and Lance Stephenson.

2014 NBA Season Over/Under Wins - Westgate
2013 Record
2014 Over/Under Wins
Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards

Tags: NBA

College Football Handicapping: CRIS vs. Power Ratings Week 6

09.30.2014     02:43 PM     Printer Friendly

Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno has been creating his own Power Ratings for nearly two decades. His numbers are very well respected and an excellent tool for discovering value. Rob’s PRs are a baseline and do not include key injuries or situations but they also don't overreact as much as the betting markets do week to week. Below is a chart of CRIS's current lines and Rob's College Football Power Ratings for Week 6.

2014 College Football CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Week 6
Away Team
Home Team
Veno Power
CRIS Current
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Florida Atlantic -9.5
Florida Atlantic -6.5
Central Florida
Central Florida -1
Houston -3
Oregon -19.5
Oregon -23
Louisville -6
Louisville -2.5
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Diego State -0.5
Fresno State -3
Utah State
BYU -16.5
BYU -21
Georgia -31
Georgia -33.5
Wake Forest
Florida State
Florida State -37
Florida State -38.5
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL) -0.5
Miami (FL) -2
North Texas
Indiana -8
Indiana -13.5
Illinois -10
Illinois -10
Ohio State
Ohio State -10
Ohio State N/L
East Carolina
East Carolina -27
East Carolina -41
Cincinnati -8
Cincinnati -4
Virginia -4
Virginia -6.5
Central Michigan
Central Michigan -3.5
Central Michigan -4
West Virginia
West Virginia -20
West Virginia -26
Western Michigan
Toledo -10
Toledo -5
Old Dominion
Marshall -16
Marshall -17.5
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina -0.5
Virginia Tech -1.5
Kent State
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois -20
Northern Illinois -24
Wisconsin -11
Wisconsin -8
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) -6
Miami (OH) -3.5
South Alabama
Appalachian State
South Alabama -7.5
South Alabama -4.5
South Carolina
South Carolina -11
South Carolina -5
Ball State
Ball State -1
Army -2.5
Bowling Green
Bowling Green -13
Bowling Green -5
Eastern Michigan
Akron -22
Akron -22.5
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Kansas State -10
Kansas State N/L
Rice -5
Rice -6.5
Colorado State
Colorado State -15
Colorado State -15
Georgia State
Louisiana-Lafayette -19
Louisiana-Lafayette -16.5
Notre Dame
Stanford -1.5
Stanford -1
Arizona State
USC -8
USC -11.5
Auburn -8
Auburn -7.5
Air Force
Navy -6.5
Navy -4
Oklahoma -6.5
Oklahoma -4
Florida -2
Tennessee -2.5
Baylor -12
Baylor -16.5
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -17
Oklahoma State -17
Alabama -6.5
Alabama -6
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Texas A&M -4
Mississippi State -1.5
UCLA -11.5
UCLA -13
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech -12
Louisiana Tech -12
Southern Miss
Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State -17.5
Middle Tennessee State -18
Oregon State
Oregon State -8.5
Oregon State -7
Washington State
Washington State -4
Washington State -3
Texas State
Texas State -15.5
Texas State -17
Rutgers -0.5
Rutgers -3
New Mexico
UTSA -19
UTSA -17
Arkansas State
Arkansas State -10
Arkansas State -11
NC State
Clemson -15
Clemson -14
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky -11
Western Kentucky -9
Michigan State
Michigan State -10
Michigan State -7
Georgia Southern
New Mexico State
Georgia Southern -14.5
Georgia Southern -17.5
San Jose State
San Jose State -11.5
San Jose State -10
Boise State
Boise State -2.5
Boise State -3.5

Tags: College Football Rob Veno

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Washington Capitals Season O/U Points

09.30.2014     10:35 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Washington Capitals 
Season Over/Under Points 88.5 
Recommendation: Over

Last week my blog centered around the Florida Panthers and my recommendation to go Under their season point/win total.  This week with baseball winding down and few games on the card I decided to once again focus on a specific NHL team and see if we can beat the market.

The Washington Capitals come into the 2014-15 with new coach Barry Trotz at the helm.  The departure of Adam Oates behind the bench and the addition of longtime Nashville Predators coach Trotz has me immediately looking to back a talented yet underachieving Capitals team.  The past seven seasons have seen the Caps finish with greater than 88.5 points (90, 97.4 extrapolated in a shorten season, 92, 107, 121, 108, and 94 points).  Washington has been on a downward turn the past three seasons, but a change in system and style will catapult them back into the top of the Eastern Conference. 

Goaltender Braden Holtby is at the point in his young career where he is ready to take the next step.  He should flourish under Trotz and his defensively minded system.  Holtby hasn't let up a single goal in his preseason games so far with 109:34 of shutout hockey.  If Washington gets back into the playoffs, it will be Holtby who carries them and not Alex Ovechkin.  That being said, it is hard to ignore the fact that as good offensively as Ovechkin was last season, he should be a better overall player under Trotz's system.  Adam Oates just couldn't get on the same page with his stars and Trotz can't be any worse. 

The additions of defensemen Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik should pay immediate dividends on an otherwise poor defensive club.  Another variable we have to look at as a positive is defenseman Mike Green, if he can stay remotely healthy this season he improves Washington both offensively and defensively.  All in all, there is no reason this point total should be 88.5.  The Capitals will make the playoffs this season and they will finish above 90 points.  Take the Over.

The NHL season starts October 8 and Sammy P is your top option for profits on the ice. His full season ($999) and October ($299) packages are available for purchase right here.

Tags: NHL Washingto Capitals Sammy P

College Football Betting Podcast 9-30-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno

09.30.2014     10:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno. Ian covered the Big XII while Rob discussed early Week 6 line moves.

Today's segments 
Ian Cameron - Big XII Report

Rob Veno - College Football Week 6 Line Moves

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Big XII Ian Cameron Rob Veno Andrew Lange

College Footbal Gambling: Oregon struggling to cover big numbers

09.30.2014     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Article on Arizona's prep for Thursday's game vs. Oregon. The Wildcats embarrassed the Ducks last year in Tucson, 42-16. It smells of a revenge spot but Sportsmemo Handicapper Paul Stone pointed out that the Ducks are on an 0-6 ATS run at favorites of 18.5 or more dating back to last season. They are currently -23.5 vs. the Wildcats.

Oregon -23 vs. Washington State = SU Win, ATS Loss 
Oregon -42 vs. Wyoming = SU Win, ATS Loss 
Oregon -52 vs. South Dakota = SU Win, ATS Loss 
Oregon -24 vs. Oregon State = SU Win, ATS Loss 
Oregon -20.5 vs. Arizona = SU Loss, ATS Loss 
Oregon -28.5 vs. Utah = SU Win, ATS Loss

Tags: College Football Arizona Wildcats Oregon Ducks PAC-12

NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to suspension of Indianapolis' Landry

09.30.2014     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indianapolis' defense took another hit this week with free safety LaRon Landry suspended for PEDs. Projected starter strong Delano Howell is also gone for the year as is linebacker Robert Mathis. Veteran special teamer Sergio Brown is expected to fill in for Landry. The Colts ranked 26th in the league at 6.0 yards per play allowed. Sunday's total vs. Baltimore has already been hit up from 46.5 to 48.5.

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens

College Football Betting: Texas well aware of big underdog status vs. Baylor

09.30.2014     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baylor -16.5 at Texas

Texas head coach Charlie Strong needs to refresh his odds screen. You were 14-point dogs for all of a few hours, Chuck.

On being the underdog: “Well, I don’t have a choice. I’m a 14 point underdog, 14 point spread right now. We’re going to have to play really well. We’re going to have to play really well to be in the ballgame.”

Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Baylor Bears Big XII

College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 6

09.30.2014     07:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at some of the early moves in the Week 6 college football betting markets.

Louisville at Syracuse 
CRIS Opener: Louisville -4.5 
CRIS Current: Louisville -2.5 
Comment: Louisville quarterback Will Gardner (knee) didn't play vs. Wake Forest and is questionable vs. Syracuse.

Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech 
CRIS Opener: Georgia Tech -1.5 
CRIS Current: Miami (FL) -2 
Comment: GT off huge win at Virginia Tech. Canes have somehow won five straight in the series including last year's 45-30 blowout.

SMU at East Carolina 
CRIS Opener: East Carolina -34.5 
CRIS Current: East Carolina -41 
Comment: ECU with an extra week to digest blowout of UNC. SMU with 12 points YTD.

Kansas at West Virginia 
CRIS Opener: West Virginia -22 
CRIS Current: West Virginia -26.5 
Comment: Mountaineers off of a bye week. Kansas finally rid itself of Charlie Weis.

South Carolina at Kentucky 
CRIS Opener: South Carolina -7.5 
CRIS Current: South Carolina -5.5 
Comment: Following last second loss to Missouri, markets leery that Gamecocks will be up for this one.

Baylor at Texas 
CRIS Opener: Baylor -12.5 
CRIS Current: Baylor -16.5 
Comment: Golden Nugget GOY has this one Bears -3. Baylor won last year's meeting in Waco, 30-10.

UAB at Western Kentucky 
CRIS Opener: Western Kentucky -13 
CRIS Current: Western Kentucky -9 
Comment: UAB loss to FIU looks bad but Blazers were -6 in turnovers.

Tags: College Football

College Football Gambling: Florida State still winless on the year against the spread

09.30.2014     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The BCS Championship hangover continues for Florida State as the Seminoles are 0-4 ATS on the year. After allowing 12.1 ppg in 2013, the defense ranks 64th nationally in yards per play (5.6) vs. FBS foes. In last week's come-from-behind win over NC State, the Seminoles missed 33 tackles. FSU will try to notch its first spread cover of the year laying -38.5 vs. Wake Forest on Saturday.

"Yes, it is," Fisher said Monday when asked if Saturday's game resulted in the most missed tackles since he's been at FSU. "And the bad part [is] we were in position to make a lot of plays. I mean, it wasn't like you were out of position. I mean, the calls were there. We're there. We've gotta tackle better."

Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Wake Forest Demon Deacons ACC

NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Over 60% of bets placed on the UNDER

09.29.2014     02:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for tonight's  Monday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs courtesy of Bookmaker. KC has seen a steady amount of market support with the link down from +4 to +3/+2.5. The total has climbed from 45 to 47.

56.8% - New England -3

60.4% - Under 47

51.6% - Kansas City +125

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Kansas City Chiefs

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Over/Under Trends

09.29.2014     12:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the early ATS streakers to open the NFL season; teams that were red hot or ice cold against the spread coming out of the gate.  This week, I’ll focus on teams that have shown a strong totals bias through the first four weeks of the campaign.  Who’s trending Over?  Who’s trending Under?  And, most importantly, why are these teams trending the way they are?  Are the markets close to catching up?  Read on to find out!

One of the more incongruous September NFL trends is that of the Jacksonville Jaguars going 4-0 to the Over.  The Jags are one of only two teams (Oakland is the other) averaging fewer than 15 points per game this year.  And that’s not likely to change dramatically.  Jacksonville’s level of skill position talent is quite possibly the weakest in the NFL.  Toby Gerhart is averaging 2.6 yards per carry; Denard Robinson 3.3.  In four games, their longest run from scrimmage is 13 yards (not including a single Blake Bortles 20 yard scramble).

The Jaguars receiving corps doesn’t keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night.  Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and Marquise Lee are their top three downfield threats.  All three are rookies still in the very early stages of their development.  Opening day starting QB Chad Henne’s been benched already, for the umpteenth time in his career.  That leaves another rookie, Blake Bortles, in a ‘getting his feet wet’ situation behind a terrible offensive line.  Jacksonville quarterbacks have suffered 20 sacks already this year, with many more on the horizon.

So, the Jags offense stinks and it’s not likely to get better anytime soon.  So how on earth is this team 4-0 to the Over?  There are two correct answers to that question.  First and foremost, the Jaguars defense is every bit as bad as their offense, simply unable to get stops.  And secondly, the betting markets have given the Jaguars totals that are just a notch or two too low; in large part because of their offensive deficiencies. 

The Jags have been totaled between 43 and 49 in each of their four contests.  They’ve allowed at least 33 points in all four of their losses to open the campaign.  Two of their four Overs cashed by less than a field goal; one on a late fumble return TD.  Moving forward, it’s hard to picture an offense this bad continuing to cash Over tickets week after week.  That being said, Blake Bortles took some downfield shots in his starting debut at San Diego this past Sunday, something that Chad Henne didn’t do very much of during his tenure as the starter; downfield shots that Over bettors covet.

The Colts are 4-0 to the Over thanks to their offense, more than their defense. Indy can’t run the ball very well once again, with Trent Richardson held to just 3.3 yards per carry through the Colts first four games.  But Andrew Luck sure can throw, with 17 20+ yard completions already this season.  Eight of the nine receivers who have caught a ball from Luck this year have at least one 20+ yard completion. 

This reliance on the pass for the majority of their offensive production is clearly a sign that the Colts run of Overs may well continue into the future.  And when we consider the Colts defensive mediocrity – a team that really lacks any consistent pass rush without Robert Mathis in the lineup – it’s not hard to picture the Colts involved in numerous shootouts moving forward.

Cleveland is 3-0 to the Over, but each of their last two ballgames barely squeaked Over the total; the two Over cashes coming by a combined two points against the Saints and Ravens.  Both of those contests needed last second game winning field goals to get Over.  
But Cleveland has a good defensive reputation from last year, despite putting up lousy defensive numbers through the first month of the new campaign, ranked #31 in the NFL while allowing a whopping 6.4 yards per play.  And QB Brian Hoyer, while only throwing for three touchdowns in three games to his limited receiving corps, has avoided turnovers like the plague, without a single interception yet.  The Browns lone offensive strength is on their line; a powerful unit.  A strong OL and a ‘not as good as advertised’ defense makes me think that the Browns early season run of Overs could continue.

It’s worth mentioning the Eagles here, even though the Eagles stayed Under the total in San Francisco on Sunday when they couldn’t convert a late first-and-goal situation into a touchdown.  Still, the Eagles are 3-1 to the Over through their first four games.  Everyone knows that Chip Kelly wants to play at a very, very fast tempo; wearing their opponent’s down as the game progresses – you don’t find many ‘bargains’ in the betting markets when it comes to Philly Overs.

But moving forward, at least for the short term, I’m not expecting the Eagles to remain an Over team.  Philly’s offensive line is in shambles right now, an injury riddled unit, in sharp contrast to last year when all five OL starters played together in every game.  Nick Foles is not a creator when things break down in the pocket – he needs protection to be effective – making those OL woes a truly significant concern.  And the Eagles pass defense has been pretty darn good, but their run D has been gashed.  That offers opponents an excellent ‘slow the game down with a steady diet of running plays and keep Philly’s offense off the field strategy; a strategy that does not bode well for Over bettors.

The Bengals, Cardinals and Bills are the only three teams in the NFL to cash nothing but Under tickets through the first four weeks of the season.  And it makes sense for all three teams.  All three squads rank in the near -elite category defensively; each defense ranked in the Top 10 while allowing 5.0 yards per play or less.  Those are not stats likely to regress significantly in the coming weeks – these are a trio of top notch stop units.

Buffalo plays at a fast pace, ensuring relatively high posted totals. but they don’t have a good quarterback and struggle to punch in touchdowns in the red zone.  Arizona doesn’t have a particularly good quarterback either (even when Carson Palmer is healthy), and they’ll milk the clock with a lead, relying on their stop unit to secure the victory. 

Cincinnati’s receiving corps has been banged up since training camp, leaving Andy Dalton with limited downfield options.  And, like Arizona, Cinci plays very conservatively with a lead; not a team that will keep the pedal pushed to the floor when leading by margin after halftime.

The strongest Over or Unders teams are likely to cash a dozen winning bets over the course of a 16-game season. Identifying these totals streakers early gives bettors a legitimate opportunity to cash in repeatedly throughout the course of the campaign.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Betting Podcast 9-29-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

09.29.2014     10:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper and Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange talked NFL openers and early line moves for Week 5.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report Week 5

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Update: Eagles' run-game nowhere to be found

09.29.2014     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly


Philadelphia's offensive line issues are starting to become a major problem not just a concern. Two weeks ago, the Eagles managed 57 yards on 25 carries vs. a Washington defense that just allowed 154 yards to the Giants. And Sunday against San Francisco it was half of that production with 22 yards on 12 carries.

“Obviously, I didn’t think we’d be able to run it in there,” Kelly said. “We weren’t moving the ball at all against that front.”

‪“We’re not getting movement,” right tackle Todd Herremans said. “We’re not hitting our combos correctly. Just not playing well.

“Everybody up front wants to do it. I don’t think it’s a communication thing. We just didn’t play well today.”

NFL Gambling Update: Eagles' offensive line still in disarray

09.23.2014     02:16 PM     View Original Blog
Philadelphia at San Francisco -5 O/U 50.5

Despite playing with a makeshift offensive line, the Philadelphia Eagles are off to a 3-0 start (2-1) this season. But heading into Sunday's game at San Francisco, bettors should expect more changes to the team's starting unit.

"What I can guarantee you is that we will put five linemen out there on Sunday," Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said. "There will be five of them."

Which ones?

"You guys can figure that one out."

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles

College Football Betting: Ugly teams deliver pointspread wins

09.29.2014     07:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
This past weekend was a great one for "ugly" teams in college football. And by "ugly" we mean teams that had vastly underachieved the first month of the season leaving bettors little reason to offer their support. But "ugliness" can be overcompensated for in the betting markets and these teams not only had value but came through with their best efforts of the season. Let's take a look...

Northwestern - The Wildcats had looked horrible during their 1-2 SU/0-3 start. Questions loomed whether or not Pat Fitzgerald was losing the team and with Penn State and Wisconsin on deck, a 1-4 start seemed likely. But bettors witnessed a reborn NU squad that was dynamic offensively and stout defensively in Saturday's 29-6 drubbing of Penn State. The Nittany Lions were no doubt flat but it was the first time all season that Northwestern played up to its capabilities and some. NW is catching +9.5 at home vs. the Badgers on Saturday.

Florida International - Make no mistake, Ron Turner isn't a good coach and the Panthers are still one of the worst teams in the country. But pointspreads have a way of offsetting those types of shortcomings. On the road against UAB, money poured in on the Blazers throughout the week but FIU not only covered +14 by won outright 34-20. Bettors, however, should be aware that FIU had an extremely fortunate +6 turnover margin; the type of stat bad teams come up with once a decade. Despite Turner's 4-1 ATS start, the markets aren't buying in as rival FAU went from -8 to -9.5 for Thursday night's contest.

Vanderbilt - After losing to Temple and Ole Miss by a combined score of 78-10, Vandy had the look of a dead nuts "bet against" squad. And in Week 3, that theory was bolstered when the Commodores barely beat UMass. Few teams if any took a bigger power rating hit from the end of last year to the present. But guess who's 2-0 ATS in SEC play? Yep. Catching +23 vs. South Carolina, the 'Dores covered wire-to-wire. And despite producing only 139 yards of total offense (wow!) Vandy covered the inflated +17 vs. a Kentucky squad clearly not ready for the role of a double-digit favorite in conference play. Think the markets are impressed? Vanderbilt was +6.5 at home vs. Georgia last season and won outright! This Saturday they’re catching +32 in Athens.

Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Florida International Panthers Vanderbilt Commodores Andrew Lange

College Football Gambling: Texas Tech trending in wrong direction

09.29.2014     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite a slew of issues and injuries, Texas Tech managed to escape Stillwater with a pointspread cover (+14) in last Thursday’s 45-35 loss. But with quarterback Davis Webb's status for Saturday at Kansas State in doubt and the team's inability to correct correctable issues (turnovers, penalties) the Red Raiders could be headed towards a losing season. TTU has lost the turnover battle with a negative margin in all four games. In terms of penalty yardage, they have nearly double (442) their opposition (221). And since starting 7-0, Kliff Kingsbury is on a 2-7 run vs. FBS competition.

“We would play to Pat’s strengths. He does some things really well. We’d make sure we’re calling plays that he likes,” coach Kliff Kingsbury said.

“There’s no magical thing we can do to stop this,” Tech senior wide receiver Marquez said. “It’s just got to be as a player you’ve got to know when you can do certain things and when you cannot. Rules are rules. You can’t hold. You can’t get a pass interference. You can’t do things of that nature.

Tags: College Football Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII

College Football Handicapping: Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 6

09.29.2014     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly

Week 6's breakdown of Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines vs. CRIS's current numbers. It's a great tool to spot changes in perception from oddsmakers and the betting markets. A lot of opinions have obviously changed since the summer, most notably with Baylor and TCU. Most projected the Bears to take a step back this season but oddsmakers continue to struggle with pricing this team. Note than the current -14.5 was bet up from an opener of -12.5. Oklahoma is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS and has looked the part of a playoff contender. But in the eyes of most TCU (3-0 SU/ATS) is much improved with blowout wins over Samford, Minnesota, and SMU. This week's outcome will likely have a big impact on how the Horned Frogs are priced in October with games at Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, and at West Virginia.

2014 College Football Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 6
Golden Nugget
CRIS Current
Oregon -25
Oregon -22.5
Louisville -1
Louisville -3.5
Auburn -6.5
Auburn -9
Arizona State
USC -11
USC -10
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL) -4
Georgia Tech pk
Georgia -24
Georgia -32
Wisconsin -7
Wisconsin -10
Ole Miss
Alabama -9
Alabama -5
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina -10
North Carolina pk
NC State
Clemson -23
Clemson -14
Baylor -3
Baylor -14.5
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Mississippi State -3
Mississippi State -1
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Kansas State -7
Kansas State N/L
Boise State
Boise State -6
Boise State -2.5
Oklahoma -14
Oklahoma -5
Florida -4.5
Florida -1
Notre Dame
Stanford -6
Stanford -1
Michigan State
Michigan State -8
Michigan State -9.5

Tags: College Football Baylor Bears TCU Horned Frogs Big XII

NFL Gambling: Road teams make up four out of top five SuperContest picks for Week 4

09.28.2014     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 4 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. GREEN BAY -1.5 at Chicago 
2. KANSAS CITY +3.5 vs. New England 
3. ATLANTA -3 at Minnesota 
4. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 at San Francisco 
5. NEW ORLEANS -3 at Dallas

Least picked Sunday side: SAN DIEGO -12.5 vs. Jacksonville

Tags: NFL

College Football Betting Consensus: Public sees no reason not to continue fade of woeful SMU

09.27.2014     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top five consensus bets (sides and totals) for Saturday's college football games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

89.5% - TCU -31.5 at SMU 
84.7% - NEVADA -5.5 at San Jose State 
82.9% - LOUISVILLE -21 vs. Wake Forest 
80.7% - PITTSBURGH -21 vs. Akron 
80.1% - TEXAS STATE +3 at Tulsa

92.5% - OVER 57 Tennessee-Georgia 
89.5% - OVER 56.5 New Mexico State-LSU 
88.6% - OVER 59 Memphis-Ole Miss 
88.0% - OVER 60 Florida State-NC State 
87.4% - OVER 70 Maryland-Indiana

Tags: College Football

Sportsmemo's College Football In-Game Betting Discussion - Week 5

09.27.2014     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Don't miss Sportsmemo's Posting Forum College Football Week 5 in-game discussion. The Sportsmemo Handicappers and posting forum members share their thoughts, opinions, and second half wagers throughout the day. If you're not a forum member, it's free to sign up! All you need is a username and password. Come be a part of the WINNING action!

Tags: College Football

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