Hot dog eaters on board with New Jersey sports betting
Good news. MLE, better known at Major League Eating, is 100 percent on board with New Jersey's efforts to legalize sports betting
"Typically, we march in lockstep with our peers in professional sports, but New Jersey is facing a tough fiscal road ahead, and sports betting has the potential to provide much needed revenues to the state," MLE president Richard Shea said in a statement. "It is clear that these other leagues harbor an animus toward New Jersey, that they fear competition and that they desire anything but a level playing field."
If you were planning on betting the NFL in New Jersey this weekend, sorry, bro
You didn't seriously think, with our government, that New Jersey was going to pull this off without a snafu or five, did you?
NFL Betting Podcast 10-24-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning
Tags: NFL Erin Rynning Andrew Lange
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 8 Every Game on the Board coverage. Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.
Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
College Football Betting: Michigan's Brady Hoke well aware of massive pointspread
Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans Big Ten
More good news. Brady Hoke doesn't gamble
. The Wolverines opened +15 and are now +17 across the board.
“Look, the only people who really care about that are gamblers. I don’t gamble,” Hoke said Monday. “That being said, we’ve been the underdogs before, and for us, it’s just going out there and playing football.”
College Football Gambling: Oregon-Cal game expected to be a neutral environment
Tags: College Football Oregon Ducks California Golden Bears PAC-12
Despite recently upgrading Memorial Stadium, California decided to play tonight's game vs. Oregon in San Francisco's brand new Levi Stadium. According to reports
, the crowd is likely to be sparse. For starters, Levi Stadium is in Santa Clara, more than an hour away from Berkley. They were practically giving away tickets online. And the game starts during the middle of tonight's World Series Game 3. Oregon also has a large alumni base in the Bay Area. The Ducks are currently 17-point favorites with a total of 79.
College Football Betting Preview: Memphis Tigers at SMU Mustangs
Tags: College Football Memphis Tigers SMU Mustangs AAC Drew Martin Memphis at SMU
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN News
Memphis -22.5 O/U 52.5
Memphis -23.5 O/U 49
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Drew Martin's Recommendation:
The Memphis Tigers and the SMU Mustangs both enter this AAC matchup off of a conference loss. Memphis lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Cougars and SMU got its doors blown off by Cincinnati. That’s about where the similarity between these two teams ends. The Tigers have goals of winning the AAC, while the Mustangs are searching for their first win of the season.
In six games SMU has scored only four touchdowns and have amassed a total of only 39 points. When you combine their total points scored with the 288 points they have allowed, a strong case can be made for the Mustangs as the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision. If you take all 128 FBS teams the Ponies rank dead last in scoring offense and scoring defense. Fourth string walk-on quarterback Garrett Krstich will get the start on Saturday and will take on the 27th ranked scoring defense in the nation; not a matchup that projects favorably for the June Jones-less Mustangs.
The Memphis Tigers are sporting one of the most deceiving records in the country; two of their three losses came on the road to ranked teams. The Tigers fell to UCLA by seven points and were down by four points in the fourth quarter at Ole Miss. The Tigers were also on the wrong side of a 28-24 hard fought game against Houston. Memphis actually outgained Houston but was hindered by five turnovers. The Tigers have two quality wins against the likes of MTSU (36-17) and Cincinnati (41-14). The same Cincinnati team that crushed SMU 41-3 last week.
Despite being well-documented as one of the worst teams in college football, oddsmakers and the betting markets have yet to catch up with SMU. The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS with their lone cover coming against an ECU team that was fat and happy off a 70-41 win over UNC and a bye week. It’s not a bad spot at all for Memphis and unlike the Pirates, the Tigers have the defensively capabilities to pitch a shutout or close to it. Lay the wood.
College Footbal Betting Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington Huskies
Submitted by Rob Veno
Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils Washington Huskies PAC-12 Rob Veno Arizona State at Washington
Saturday, 7:45 pm PT - ESPN
Arizona State -3.5 O/U 62.5
Arizona Sate -3.5 O/U 62
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Arizona State -2
Rob Veno's Recommendation:
As of this writing it is still unclear whether Washington QB Cyler Miles (concussion) will be available for this contest. Through Wednesday practice, backup redshirt freshman Troy Williams had taken all the first team snaps and this would be his first ever college start (he went 5-of-10, for 37 yards last week in relief of Miles). In addition, the Huskies’ offensive line and defensive backfield have struggled to date and they’ll face an Arizona State team which is 8-0 against them L8T and will have their starting QB Taylor Kelly back from injury. At 1-2 in Pac-12 play, these are the home games inside the conference that new head coach Chris Petersen was hired to win.
A situational letdown could scare off potential ASU backers here since they are in the role of road favorite off back-back wins versus Pac-12 upper echelon teams USC and Stanford. The Sun Devils ability to give a third consecutive fully focused effort could be questioned and combined with Washington’s desperate need for a significant conference win, the spot does somewhat favor the Huskies. From a fundamental perspective, UW has an opportunity to succeed in the running games against Arizona State’s porous run defense (185.3 ypg rushing) and subsequently shorten the contest. For that to happen, whichever QB starts for Washington needs to at least make ASU semi-respect their ability to throw the football. The Huskies have been dismal in the passing game all season long and if the Sun Devils aren’t threatened by Miles or Williams, they’ll load the box against the run.
There is no weakness to the Arizona State offense which has been balanced beautifully thus far averaging 199.5 yards on the ground and 324 through the air. With starting Kelly back behind center, his running ability (8.8 ypc) in the rushing attack and in the passing game gives Washington defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatowski an extremely diverse scheme to try and contain. ASU WR Jalen Strong is posting Heiman contender type numbers this season (114.8 receiving ypg) and the back shoulder pass to him has been almost impossible to defend. RB D.J. Foster is averaging 6.3 ypc and is also the team’s second leading receiver with 28 catches. Offensive weaponry clearly favors Arizona State.
It could be viewed as helpful or as an indicator that Washington faced Oregon last week since ASU’s offensive style mirrors Oregon’s. Will last week’s 45-20 loss have the Huskies better prepared to face a close facsimile of the offense that shredded them for 534 total yards last week (218 ry, 336 py) or is their defense extremely susceptible to this brand of balanced offense and speed. Their defensive front has been disruptive this season accumulating 27 sacks and 46 tackles for loss which could be a factor. The offense needs to keep the defense fresh and ASU does allow over 41% 3rd down conversions but if Williams starts, asking him to be that efficient is a lot. A 90% chance for rain Saturday night is forecasted for this game so ball security and execution could play an above average role.
Game has too many variables at this point to get a firm grip on but I’ll give a slight lean to the more veteran and cohesive visitors.
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NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices Week 8
Link to FiveThirtyEight.com's Elo Ratings
and spreads for NFL Week 8. Some of the biggest discrepancies include...
Chicago at New England
Elo: New England -9
Market: New England -6
Seattle at Carolina
Elo: Seattle -1.5
Market: Seattle -5
Houston at Tennessee
Elo: Tennessee -3
Market: Houston -3
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Elo: Indianapolis -1
Market: Indianapolis -3
College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers
Submitted by Paul Stone
Tags: College Football Ole Miss Rebels LSU Tigers SEC Paul Stone Mississippi at LSU
Saturday, 4:15 pm PT - ESPN
Mississippi -3 O/U 47
Mississippi -3.5 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Paul Stone's Recommendation:
Some have questioned Hugh Freeze's recruiting methods. Few, however, should question his on-the-field results in just his third season at the helm of the University of Mississippi football team.
In one of the biggest games in school history, the third-ranked Rebels (7-0 on the season) travel to Baton Rouge where they will battle the young and improving LSU Tigers (6-2) Saturday night.
The matchup of SEC West titans features two of the best defenses in the nation. The Rebels, who boast speed and quickness throughout its lineup, lead the NCAA in scoring defense at 10.6 points per game, while the Tigers are not far behind, ranking eighth in the country at just 17 points per game.
Counting its 24-3 victory over Memphis as a push, Mississippi is 6-0-1 against the spread this season, outperforming the number by an average of 12.5 points per game.
Including his season at Arkansas State, Freeze is a money grabbing 33-12-1 ATS as a college head coach. Once regarded as an uneven performer prone to spells of erraticism, quarterback Bo Wallace has blossomed in his third year as the Rebels' starting quarterback. The 6-4, 203-pound senior, who spent a season in the junior college ranks before graduating to Oxford, has thrown for 1,899 yards this season, completing 66 percent of this throws (an average of 9.1 yards per attempt) with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 17-to-6.
True sophomore Laquon Treadwell, one of the nation's most heralded recruits in February 2013, is Wallace's favorite target, having recorded 34 catches for 458 yards and four touchdowns.
Still, Mississippi's calling card is its defense. In addition to leading the nation in scoring defense, the ball-hawking Rebels are tied for tops in the NCAA in interceptions with 15. The Rebels' defense, which is built to stop spread-based, speed-heavy offenses, has scored four touchdowns this season
- just two fewer than it has allowed opposing offenses.
Prized recruit Robert Nkemdiche, defensive tackle D.T. Shackelford, veteran safety Cody Prewitt and freshman Marquis Haynes are just some of the Rebels' cast of characters who have made 2014 miserable for their opposition.
After losing a boatload of skill players throughout its lineup, a youthful LSU team remains a work in progress, perhaps ready to unleash a stellar performance on this type of Saturday night stage. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Jennings has shown steady improvement, while true freshman tailback Leonard Fournette has displayed glimpses of greatness and soon may demonstrate production to match his bravado.
Saturday's meeting represents the first time that Mississippi has been favored over LSU in Baton Rouge since 1999.
The Rebels are laying 3.5 points which appears to be right on the mark. The total opened at 47 before the market bet it down to the 44.5 and 45 range. My recommendation would be to shop around and play a game where points should be at a premium to remain under the total of 45.
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Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public and market divided on San Diego-Denver
Tags: College Football NFL San Diego Chargers Denver Broncos Virginia Tech Hokies Miami (FL) Hurricanes East Carolina Pirates UConn Huskies
Here are the top consensus bets (sides and totals) for tonight's college and pro football games courtesy of Bookmaker. The market pushed Denver up to as high as -10 after and opener of -7. Buy-back has the Broncos now -9/-9.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. Miami (FL) was steamed from +3 to -3 before settling in at -2. The move predicated largely on Virginia Tech's injuries. And market bettors willing to swoop up +28 with UConn as most shops have ECU at -27.5. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.
79.6% - East Carolina -27.5 vs. UConn
60.9% - San Diego +9 at Denver
53.2% - Miami (FL) -2 at Virginia Tech
80.4% - OVER 51 San Diego-Denver
79.7% - OVER 54.5 UConn-East Carolina
63.7% - UNDER 48 Miami (FL)-Virginia Tech
College Football Betting Preview: Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans
Submitted by ICC
Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Michigan at Michigan State
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
Michigan State -17 O/U 51.5
Michigan State -17 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Michigan State -15.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation:
After years of having to rely on defense to win games, Michigan State is now being carried by its offense. The Spartans are averaging 47 ppg including 27+ points in each of their three Big Ten games behind a balanced attack of 260 ypg on the ground and 265 ypg passing. Michigan’s defense is a solid unit but have had very noticeable struggles against the better offensive teams. The Wolverines allowed 26 points to Rutgers, 26 points to Utah, 30 points to Minnesota and 31 points to Notre Dame. Michigan State’s offense is arguably better than all four of those offenses. MSU put up 29 points is last year’s meeting despite still being in the infant stages of what has become a dynamic offense.
Michigan’s offense has been woeful this season ranking 12th in the Big Ten in scoring (21.7 ppg) and last in total offense (340 ypg). They’ve not scored more than 24 points in any game against Power Five conference foes this season but don’t necessarily need huge production with the current total at 48.5. And let’s not forgot that this is not the MSU defense of last year than held the Wolverines to six points. The Spartans have yielded 70 points combined in their last three Big Ten games; victimized by late scoring runs by the opposition in many of their games this season. Michigan’s Devin Gardner has had his share of struggles but with the extra week to prepare, I expect a “kitchen sink” approach meaning trick plays and shots down field knowing they’re unlikely to keep pace with a conservative game plan. And that exactly what Brady Hoke talked about when he spoke to the media this week: creating more big plays and being more explosive on offense. The Wolverines also worked on targeting blocks, finishing at the line of scrimmage, and communicating better within the offense. Easier said than done but I expect some of that extra offensive practice to pay dividends.
This rivalry series has been lower scoring for years going under the total in each of the last five meetings dating back to 2009 but with the total bet down from the opener to 48.5, I think we have some value knowing the new found capabilities of MSU’s offense. I project Sparty to top the 30-point barrier which puts us in decent position to cash a ticket on the over.
NFL Handicapping: Oddsmakers peg Dallas' Murray for another 100-yard game
Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins
Dallas' DeMarco Murray has been putting up some serious numbers (6 straight 100-yard games) and has drawn the attention of oddsmakers. The Westgate SuperBook
has set Murray's O/U rushing yards at 110.5 for Monday Night's game vs. Washington. The Redskins have actually been decent against the run at 103.3 ypg (12th) and 3.8 ypc (10th) allowed.
Washington's top opposing rusher game-by-game
Russell Wilson - 122 yards
Arian Foster - 103 yards
Andre Ellington - 67 yards
Andre Williams - 66 yards
Bishop Sankey - 54 yards
LeSean McCoy - 22 yards
Chad Henne - 17 yards
"We're expecting the sharp players to bet under this number we put up," Sherman said, referring to the professional sports bettors in Las Vegas. "They usually like to bet under on everything, whether it's a receiver's receiving yards or a running back's rushing yards. They usually just blindly bet 'under' on most stuff. And just with what Murray has done, we'd expect to get the general public to bet on the over because they see him get 100 every week."
NFL Gambling Alert: Baltimore now favored at Cincinnati
Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens
You don't see this very often in the NFL: In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals closed +1 at Baltimore and won 23-16. Fast forward to Week 8 and the same matchup, but opposite venue, is currently offering the same price. That's right, the Ravens are now favored at a number of offshore sportsbooks. The Bengals, who have lost and failed to cover three straight, are three weeks removed from laying -2.5 at New England.
Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 10-23-2014
Tags: College Football Paul Stone Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange
NFL Gambling Alert: Tennessee Titans name Mettenberger starter
Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Houston Texans Houston at Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans announced Zach Mettenberger will start Sunday's divisional game vs. Houston. Jake Locker is of course hurt and expected to return as the starter when healthy. His backup, Charlie Whitehurst, wasn't awful and posted a respectable 93.2 QB rating. In fact, Locker has attempted only 14 more passes than Whitehurst but sports a dismal 75.9 rating. No line on the game.
College Footbal Betting Preview: USC Trojans at Utah Utes
Submitted by Otto Sports
Tags: College Football USC Trojans Utat Utes PAC-12 OTTO Sports USC at Utah
Saturday, 7 pm PT - FS-1
USC -1 O/U 55.5
USC -1 O/U 52.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
OTTO Sports' Recommendation:
Utah has proven that you don't have to run 90 plays and post 600 yards of offense to win in the PAC-12. But while it's one thing to grind out wins and come up with timely plays, it's another to be fortunate and that based on the Utes' statistical profile, you wonder when it backfires. Offensively, they've had a real difficult time throwing the football and are starting to rely solely on the run (101 rushing attempts last two games). The team's passing yardage has gotten progressively worse in all six games culminating in last week's 62-yard effort vs. Oregon State. As pointed out in the Sportsmemo Blog yesterday, the Utes have been outgained in their last four games by margins of 22, 138, 64, and 75 yards. It's extremely hard to sustain success when you're being outgained on a routine basis.
USC's statistical profile isn't eye-popping but their results are more in line with the yards gained and allowed. The Trojans have actually faced a fairly tough PAC-12 slate with games at Stanford and Arizona and the infamous home loss to Arizona State. When we stack up USC vs. Utah in league play we come up with the following:
Yards per play
Yards per play allowed
Based on those stats, USC's price tag of -1/pk on the road has value. The Trojans aren't really great in any facet of the game but can move the football both through the air and on the ground and can typically shut down one aspect of the opposition's offense. I go back to the Oregon State game: the Beavers had no chance of running the football, USC knew it, and ultimately held the Beavers to 181 yards. Utah has little to no passing game which makes life a lot easier for a flawed but capable USC defense.
I expect Utah to continue to grind out games and try to control clock. USC too has toned down its up-tempo due to lack of depth. That puts the under in play (just got smoked) as well as the short price on the road side.
College Football Betting: Vanderbilt starts fourth different quarterback
Tags: College Football Vanderbilt Commodores Missouri Tigers SEC Vanderbilt at Missouri -21 O/U 45
Eight games into the season and Vanderbilt is on its fourth different starting quarterback
. Redshirt frosh Johnny McCrary will get the nod vs. Missouri. The total was bet down from 52.5 to as low as 45.
"Johnny will probably be the guy to get the start this week," Mason said. "We'll put that out of the way before we speculate on who's doing what, when, where. I thought Johnny had a good Sunday [practice], and Wade is right there. They are going to work hard for us until our leader gets back."
College Football Handicapping: Utah is winning games but not box scores
Tags: College Football Utah Utes UCS Trojans PAC-12 USC -1 at Utah O/U 56
Utah was another team that talked about playing up-tempo during the preseason but due to various reasons have slowed things down
considerably of late. And despite failing to average more than five yards per play in each of their last four games, the conservative approach has resulted in three wins. You have to wonder though how long their good fortune will last. In those four games they posted negative total yardage differentials of -22, -138, -64, and -75.
“We are winning with strong defense, strong kicking game, and strong running,” understated head coach Kyle Whittingham. “One of the factors we control is tempo. And we’ll make that determination as we go through the week, which tempo gives us the best chance to win. You have to do whatever you have to do to give yourself the chance to win. It’s a state of constant adjustment.”
Sports Betting Update: Ruling on New Jersey case delayed
Tags: College Football Utah Utes UCS Trojans PAC-12
In keeping with tradition, the much anticipated ruling on New Jersey's sports betting case will be delayed until at least Friday
. Gotta leave the NCAA and NFL enough time to come up with some eleventh hour excuse dug out of the cobwebs of the Constitution.
New Jersey says it's taking bets on NFL Week 8
No fear, New Jersey. No fear
“We’re going to start taking bets on the 26th and if someone tries to stop us they’re going to need an order from the judge,” said Drazin.
NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers Baltimore at Cincinnati
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 46
Cincinnati pk O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore. Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals. After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead. But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore’s home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.
But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now. AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames. TE Tyler Eifert is out as well. That duo combined for more than half of Cinci’s receiving yards in that Week 1 win. Defensively, the Bengals have a cluster injury problem at linebacker. All three LB starters were off the field by the second half of last week’s loss at Indy; none of them are sure things to suit up this week. Throw in an impact injury to stud CB Leon Hall (questionable for Sunday), and you can understand why Cinci’s defense has struggled in recent weeks.
The Bengals have a value problem as well as their injury concerns and Baltimore’s same season divisional revenge concerns. Cincinnati’s season long stats look just fine, outgaining their foes by 0.3 yards per play. They’ve got a positive turnover differential, Dalton’s QB rating is at the highest of his career, and their pass defense numbers (opposing QB passer rating numbers) rank among the top five teams in the NFL.
But those full-season numbers are heavily influenced by the Bengals first three games of the season, all relatively well-played wins and covers. Over their last three games, it’s been a very different story. Cinci’s defense allowed more than 500 yards against Indy last week on the heels of allowing 80 points in their previous two games, a struggling unit. And Cinci got shut out last week, the second time in the last three games that the offense couldn’t throw the football effectively. Looking solely at Cinci’s 2014 numbers creates a somewhat misleading profile.
Baltimore has found their mojo since that Week 1 loss to the Bengals, winning five of their last six contests thanks to the emerge of a big play passing game that was largely absent last year but was on full display when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. Joe Flacco is currently sporting the best QB rating of his career; averaging more than ten yards per attempt three times in the last four games. RB Justin Forsett has seven 20+ yard rushing attempts for the year, making big plays out of the backfield. And the Ravens defense has been rock solid, particularly in the red zone, allowing 21 points or less in every game since their opening day defeat against Cincinnati. Right now, Baltimore is the better team.
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College Football Handicapping: CRIS vs. Power Ratings Week 9
Tags: College Football Rob Veno
Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno
has been creating his own Power Ratings
for nearly two decades. His numbers are very well respected and an excellent tool for discovering value. Rob’s PRs are a baseline and do not include key injuries or situations but they also don't overreact as much as the betting markets do week to week. Below is a chart of CRIS's current lines and Rob's College Football Power Ratings for Week 9.
|2014 College Football CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Week 9|
East Carolina -22
East Carolina -28
Virginia Tech -1
Miami (FL) -2.5
South Alabama -10.5
South Alabama -14.5
Boise State -2
Boise State -7
Northern Illinois -21
Northern Illinois -19
Mississippi State -11.5
Mississippi State -13.5
Ball State -2.5
Central Michigan -2
Central Michigan -5.5
Western Michigan -7
Western Michigan -10.5
Boston College -9.5
Boston College -12
Central Florida -13.5
Central Florida -7
San Jose State
Utah State -19.5
Utah State -16.5
Miami (OH) -2.5
Miami (OH) -6.5
Michigan State -15.5
Michigan State -17
Georgia Southern -15
Georgia Southern -16.5
Louisiana Tech -12
Louisiana Tech -9
Western Kentucky -12.5
Western Kentucky -10.5
Oklahoma State -5
Oklahoma State -1
Kansas State -10
Kansas State -10
Ohio State -11.5
Ohio State -14
Arizona State -2
Arizona State -3.5
College Football Gambling: Wisconsin stays with two-quarterback gameplan
Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Maryland Terrapins Big Ten Maryland at Wisconsin -11 O/U 57.5
Expect more quarterback shuffling from Wisconsin (1-5 ATS) this weekend as Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave will split snaps
. McEvoy played only one series in UW's most recent win over Illinois. The Badgers finished with 97 yards through the air. They need to thank whoever drew up this year's schedule. Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State all rank in the top ten nationally in rush defense and not one of them is on UW's regular season slate.
"You'll see both quarterbacks play in this football game and Tanner will play more," offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig said. "He'll play more often than he did in the last game."
College Footbal Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Penn State Nittany Big Ten Andrew Lange Ohio State at Penn State
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
Ohio State -13 O/U 51.5
Ohio State -14 O/U 51.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Ohio State -11.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation:
Penn State comes in off of back-to-back losses and a bye week as it plays host to red-hot Ohio State. Behind a young offensive line, the Nittany Lions have struggled mightily to move the football with just 32 points scored in three games vs. mediocre power conference competition.
Penn State wants to run the football and says it won't quit trying to do so but through six games, the Nittany Lions are averaging only 2.84 ypc. You could argue that stubbornness cost them the game against Michigan. The Wolverines allowed 402 passing yards to Rutgers and Gary Nova the previous week. PSU meanwhile decided to run right into the teeth of Michigan's fourth-ranked rush defense and it obviously backfired with 54 yards on a whooping 35 carries. Another opportunity to move to football via the pass presents itself this weekend. Ohio State's overall numbers look good but in large part because of games vs. Navy and Kent State. Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Maryland, and Rutgers all connected on over 60% of their passes vs. the Buckeyes. Being balanced is a good thing but straying from what little strength you have, isn't.
Another key angle to look at here is how easy Penn State has had it defensively. Based on yards per game, the "best" offense the Nittany Lions have faced was UMass at 55th nationally. The average ranking for their sixth opponents is 92nd! Now here's comes a Ohio State team that has scored 66, 50, 52, and 56 its last four games. Penn State boasts a better defense that those four opponents but they've without question yet to be tested and will be on Saturday.
The price on this game is rich as Penn State is in a pretty good spot. But since losing at home to Virginia Tech, Urban Meyer has not only opened up the offense but entered "F-U" mode as well with nothing but blowouts. It'll be interested to see how OSU's responds on the road if someone actually fights back. The offense however has looked really good and I don't envision Penn State being able to match its gaudy seasonal numbers. I also think the bye week will provide Franklin with extra time to get the offense going some. Weather expected to be good as we play over the total.
College Football Handicapping: Clemson has morphed into an UNDER team
Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers Syracuse Orange ACC Syracuse at Clemson -14.5 O/U 47.5
Because of a slew of offensive injuries
(and a sneaky-good defense)
Clemson has gone under the total in three straight games.
"We're just trying to get into a rhythm," Morris said. "When you're in a rhythm, things are rocking and rolling, and when they're not, you're scrambling."
"Time is a coach's enemy, because, the more time you have, the more stuff you want to put in," Morris said. "You just try to do what they can do and grow it. We're still going to continue to add to our offense, but it just won't be at the pace that we've added to it in the past."
College Football Betting: Penn State refuses to abandon poor run game
Tags: College Football Penn State Nittany Lions Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Ohio State -14 at Penn State O/U 51.5
Despite averaging only 2.84 ypc as a team, Penn State says it won't give up on the run game
"We worked on it [balancing the offense] really hard all last week, and we're going to do that again this week, and that's not going to change," Franklin said. "We're going to stay positive.
"We're going to stick to that, stick to the running game and keep committing to that, finding creative ways to help our guys and put them in position to be successful."