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NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 12 consensus picks

11.29.2015     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top five consensus plays for Week 12 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. TAMPA BAY +3.5 at Indianapolis 
2. PITTSBURGH +3.5 at Seattle 
3. MINNESOTA pk at Atlanta 
4. DENVER +3 vs. New England 
5. CLEVELAND -2.5 vs. Baltimore

Least picked Sunday side: NY Jets -3.5 vs. Miami

Tags: NFL

NFL Week 12 Betting Podcast 11-27-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

11.27.2015     11:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin and host Andrew Lange broke down select games for Week 12's NFL slate.

Today's segments 
Erin Rynning - NFL

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

11.27.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Buffalo at Kansas City 
Sunday, 10 am PT 
CRIS Opener:
Kansas City -5.5 O/U 42.5 
CRIS Current: Kansas City -6.5 O/U 41.5 
Recommendation: Buffalo

The Chiefs' four-game winning streak has been as much about the weakness of their opponents than any other factor.  Since their 1-5 start, KC has beaten the Steelers with Landry Jones making his first career start.  They faced the Lions in London when Detroit was in complete disarray on offense.  They knocked off the Broncos in what might be Peyton Manning’s last career start, a woeful four interception performance from the future Hall of Famer.  And last week, they knocked off a bottom tier, injury riddled Chargers squad in blowout fashion.

I’m not saying that Kansas City is a bad team, not by any stretch of the imagination.  But the Chiefs are a long, long way from being elite, and they’re an overvalued betting commodity at this stage of the campaign following this series of wins and covers.

The Chiefs offense is, most assuredly, a second tier unit.  They rank #22 in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, with Alex Smith consistently throwing the ball away instead of trying to fit it into tight windows.  KC’s offensive line play has been mediocre at best, and their running game lacks explosive playmakers since Jamal Charles got hurt.  KC ranks #2 in the NFL in turnover margin at +10, another reason why they are at least somewhat overvalued in this pointspread range.

Buffalo’s defense is no joke.  They just held New England to a season low in points and yards on Monday Night.  A Chiefs team that has struggled to build margins for most of the season is likely to struggle to produce touchdowns in bunches this week too.

Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is healthy and expected to start on Sunday.  The Bills have the type of big play offense that can produce quick strike touchdowns, and they’re fighting for their lives in the AFC playoff race.  KC might win this game, but don’t expect an easy victory — this has all the makings of a game that gets decided one way or the other by a last minute field goal.  Take the Bills.

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators

11.27.2015     10:13 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Florida State at Florida 
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - ESPN 
CRIS Opener:
Florida pk O/U 435 
CRIS Current: Florida State -2.5 O/U 43 
Recommendation: Florida

Florida State has moved to the favorite role for this annual in-state rivalry showdown but I’m not sure it is warranted. It appears that bettors flocking to the FSU side are reacting to Florida’s lackluster overtime win over Florida Atlantic last week.

Both teams' SOS is similar but a closer looks shows Florida has been far more challenged against upper-tier competition and fared extremely well in those games. The Gators scored straight up and ATS wins over Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Their lone loss when asked to step up in class was a touchdown defeat in Baton Rouge against an LSU that at the time was undefeated. Florida State meanwhile has played only one team currently in ranked among Sagarin's top 30. That of course was against Clemson as the Seminoles managed to slip under the number but were outgained heavily, 512-361. The Tigers are obviously more potent with the ball compared to the Gators, but it was a similar step-up-in class defensively and the Seminoles struggled mightily to move the football.

After last week’s lethargic performance against FAU, Florida head coach Jim McElwain openly criticized his team’s effort, performance and energy level comparing his team’s lack of energy against Florida Atlantic to that of a “dead fish”. I think we see an appropriate response from the Gators in this rivalry matchup after clearly looking past the Owls. It’s also worth noting Florida State has only played on the road four times this season. They took care of business against the weaker foes beating Boston College and Wake Forest but when asked to step up in class on the highway, it was a different story with the Seminoles losing to Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Florida does have a couple injuries to contend with, most notably on defense with lineman Jonathan Bullard questionable and sack leader Alex McCalister out. Those injuries though are reflected in this line and despite the losses, there’s value with Florida as a home underdog. Unlikely we’ll see +3 across the board but certainly worth the effort, even if you have to lay extra juice in order to secure the key number.

Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles ACC Florida Gators SEC Ian Cameron

College Football Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

11.27.2015     09:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Georgia at Georgia Tech 
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN2 
CRIS Opener:
Georgia -5 O/U 48.5 
CRIS Current: Georgia -4 O/U 48 
Recommendation: Under

Like a lot of teams, Georgia started the year with the hopes of marching up and down the field at a fast pace. But following an injury to running back Nick Chubb and the realization that quarterback Greyson Lambert was at-best a game manager, the Bulldogs have morphed into a grind-it-out, under-type squad the back half of the season. Their last five games have produced an average of only 29.6 ppg and considering the Dawgs went 4-1 in those contests, there's no reason to think they'll change their stripes. Head coach Mark Richt had this to say about his team's current philosophy: ""We've decided to slow the game down a little bit," Richt said. "Decided to try to control the ball a little bit more. You know, do things that aren't really sexy when it comes to football, offensive football, but things that we thought were going to help us win."

Georgia Tech has also been forced to go the pedestrian route due to instability along the offensive line and a sharp decline in skill position talent. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 5.36 yards per play and 350 ypg in ACC play. A great example of GT's shortcomings is the production of quarterback Justin Thomas. Last season, Thomas put up over 1,000 yards on the ground at 5.7 ypc. This season, he's yet to top 500 yards at 3.6 ypc.

While Georgia's stellar defensive numbers are skewed somewhat due to playing in the offensive inept SEC East, the Dawgs are still one of the better stop units the Yellow Jackets will have faced this season. Against Notre Dame, Clemson, and Florida State, Tech really struggled to move the football with less than 5.0 yards per play. 

With both teams focused on the run and controlling the clock, there's still enough value to look at this game under the total.

Tags: College Football Georgia Bulldogs SEC Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ACC Andrew Lange

Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 11-25-2015

11.25.2015     11:11 AM     Printer Friendly


Here's our Week 13 College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Handicappers Ian Cameron, Rob Veno, and Drew Martin joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I (111-149)

Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II (151-187)

Drew Martin - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III (189-229)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Drew Martin Ian Cameron Rob Veno Andrew Lange

NBA Betting Podcast 11-24-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

11.24.2015     12:20 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. ER borke down the entire slate of tonight's NBA games.

Today's segments 
Erin Rynning - NBA

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NBA Erin Rynning

College Football Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

11.24.2015     10:32 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Wisconsin at Minnesota 
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - Big Ten Network 
CRIS Opener:
Wisconsin -2.5 O/U NL 
CRIS Current: Wisconsin -2.5 O/U NL 
Recommendation: Minnesota

It's a Big Ten classic rivalry match-up as the Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. The Gophers beat Illinois 32-26 at home last week and now need just one more victory to become bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive year. It's been a rough one for Minnesota with Jerry Kill forced to retire and countless injuries throughout the season. Quarterback Mitch Leidner said he will play despite injuring his hand and foot against the Illini.

Wisconsin comes into the game 8-3 after dropping a 13-7 decision to Northwestern in their home finale. The Badgers thought they had the game won but the would-be game winning touchdown was overturned. They were eliminated from Big Ten West contention prior to that game. Wisky's claim to fame this season has been its defense with some of the best numbers in the country. The schedule however (71st SOS) comes up light particularly in the Big Ten where they avoided Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State as well as Indiana which leads the Big Ten in total offense (448.7 ypg) in league play. Minnesota meanwhile has played the far tougher slate (28th SOS) and showed well in spread covering losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa.

From a straight up perspective, Wisconsin has owned the recent series with 11 consecutive wins. The Gophers however have covered six of the last eight. During that stretch, there was a clear gap between the two programs but despite this year’s overall records, the Badgers have taken a big step back. In my opinion, this is an even matchup which gets me to the window with the home underdog.

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Minnesota Golden Gophers Big Ten Alex B. Smith

NBA Handicapping: Chicago's Butler asks team for better effort

11.24.2015     09:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Chicago's Jimmy Butler recently called out his team for not playing hard on a nightly basis. The Bulls (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) have been an interesting study with Fred Hoiberg taking over for Tom Thibodeau. The Bulls are clearly playing faster (99.9 pace, 9th) but have declined offensively (98.9 efficiency, 23rd) compared to last year's rate (104.7) under Thibs. They have played better defensively this season, but the numbers are somewhat skewed as offensive efficiency league-wide is way down compared to 2014-15 season-long numbers. The Bulls play at Portland tonight. Derrick Rose (ankle) was upgraded to probable.

"I don't think we bring that fight every single night," Butler told reporters after Monday's practice. "I think we're starting to get back to that, but early on we weren't the hardest-playing team every night. We always need to and have to be the hardest-playing team."

Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Portland Trail Blazers

College Football Betting: WKU-FIU ending draws groans, cheers among bettors

11.24.2015     09:41 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
You probably weren't paying much attention to last weekend's Western Kentucky-Florida International game...unless you had a bet on it. They called the game with 5:03 left on the clock due to weather. According to sportsbook "code of conduct" all games must go at least 55 minutes for action. Western Kentucky was leading 63-7 which means Hilltopper supporters as well as those on the over got shafted. Those on FIU and the under aren't allowed to complain about a "bad beat" until next April.

Tags: College Football Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Florida International Panthers C-USA

College Football Gambling: Iowa State and Syracuse fire head coaches

11.24.2015     09:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It's been hard to keep up with all of the college football midseason firings but two more took place earlier this week. Iowa State's Paul Rhoads was shown the door after posting a record of 32-54 and 16-44 in Big XII play. The Cyclones have a winning spread record (6-4-1) and looked ultra-competitive in closes losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State the last two weeks. ISU is currently a +13.5 road underdog vs. West Virginia.

Syracuse sent Scott Shafer packing after eight straight losses. The Orange opened the season 3-0 and like Iowa State, having a winning spread record (7-4 ATS) this season. Syracuse closes out the year as a +3 home underdog vs. Boston College.

Note that both Rhoads and Shafer will coach this weekend.

Tags: College Football Iowa State Cylcones Syracuse Orange

College Football Betting Trends: Vanderbilt looks for perfect "under" season

11.24.2015     09:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
One of the more "impressive" streaks of the season has been Vanderbilt's run of unders with all 10 games against FBS competition cashing tickets. The average game score of those 10 games was 29.9 ppg with the average total 46.5. The total for Saturday's rivalry game vs. Tennessee is currently 41.

vs. Texas A&M - 0-25, Under 44 
vs. Kentucky - 21-17, Under 41.5 
at Florida - 7-9, Under 38.5 
at Houston - 0-34, Under 49.5 
vs. Missouri - 10-3, Under 34 
at South Carolina - 10-19, Under 46 
at MTSU - 17-13, Under 49.5 
at Ole Miss - 16-27, Under 53 
vs. Georgia - 14-31, Under 48.5 
vs. Western Kentucky - 12-14, Under 60

Tags: College Football Vanderbilt Commodores Tennessee Volunteers SEC

College Football Handicapping: Golden Nugget Game of the Year vs. CRIS - Week 13

11.24.2015     08:55 AM     Printer Friendly

Week 13's breakdown of Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines vs. CRIS's current numbers. It's a great tool to spot week-to-week changes in perception from oddsmakers and the betting markets.

2015 College Football Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 13
Golden Nugget GOY
CRIS Current
TCU -6
Oregon State
Oregon -22.5
Oregon -35
Washington State
Washington -4.5
Nebraska -7
Iowa -1
Texas A&M
LSU -7.5
LSU -5
Kansas State
Kansas State -24
Kansas State -20
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma -3
Oklahoma -6.5
Utah State
Utah State pk
BYU -3
Ohio State
Ohio State -16
Michigan -2
Penn State
Michigan State
Michigan State -12
USC -3
USC -4
Utah State
Utah -13.5
Utah -16.5
Notre Dame
Stanford -3
Stanford -4
North Carolina
NC State
NC State -6
North Carolina -6.5
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech -4
Virginia Tech -3.5
Arkansas -7
Arkansas -14
Alabama -3.5
Alabama -14
Florida State
Florida State -4
Florida State -2
Georgia Tech
Georgia -1
Georgia -5
Louisville -2.5
Louisville -4
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Ole Miss -2
Mississippi State pk
South Carolina
Clemson -3
Clemson -17
Tennessee -17
Tennessee -17

Tags: College Football

Sportsmemo's Annual Turkey Day Shootout Special

11.24.2015     08:40 AM     Printer Friendly

Tags: College Football

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we believe in the trio of suddenly surging 5-5 teams – the Buccaneers, the Chiefs and the Houston Texans, now tied for first place following a three game winning streak?  Is Cinci primed for a skid following back-to-back losses?

In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll be focusing on key Notes & Quotes from around the NFL.  These tidbits are intentionally short; a quick hitter tour around some of the key morphers in the league as we enter the stretch run of this compelling NFL campaign.

Let me start with the Jacksonville Jaguars, winners of two straight, now just a single game out of first place in the AFC South.  And the Jags success has come, at least in part, due to Blake Bortles leading game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime.  In fact, Bortles leads the NFL, with four such drives this season – all four of the Jaguars wins this year -- one more than Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler or Matt Ryan.

Of course, it’s also worth noting that Bortles entered last week’s game with a 47% completion rate in the fourth quarter and OT, ranked dead last in the NFL among quarterbacks with enough pass attempts to qualify.  Bortles has thrown at least one interception in each of his last six games and he’s only thrown one pass of 40 yards or longer in his last five starts; unable to stretch opposing defenses. That fourth quarter/OT stat is NOT a sign that Blake Bortles has developed into an upper echelon NFL quarterback.

Meanwhile, head coach Gus Bradley is concerned that the Jags are going to be overconfident following their two game win streak.  “I guess we’ll wait and see. That will be the talk. They’re sure saying the right things and acting the right way. In the locker room, in our talk, [a] couple of players said some things to the team that I thought were spot on…. I have great faith in them, but that’s something we’ll watch as a team and make sure that we’re keeping it tight and going in the right direction.”

The Detroit Lions did two very impressive things in their win over the Raiders on Sunday.  Detroit shut down David Carr and the Raiders potent passing game, holding Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper to a combined 54 receiving yards; their lowest total of the season.  And, with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, the Lions were able to run out the clock with an impressive 13 play drive that lasted more than seven and a half minutes. 

Detroit is now 3-0 when they run the ball at least 20 times.  Offensive tackle Riley Reiff: “It's a great feeling for the offensive line when everyone, including the Raiders, knew we were going to run and we were still able to do it.”  Of course, longtime Lions fans aren’t looking for a late season transformation, with Detroit morphing back to the playoff caliber team they were last year.  Any sort of late season run will probably take the Lions out of contention for a Top 5 draft pick next spring.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered Week 11 with a +0.5 yards per play differential; ranked right between NFL elites Carolina and Cincinnati in that key statistical category.  Then the Bucs proceeded to outgain the Eagles 7.2 to 5.3 yards per play in a blowout road win, behind five TD passes from rookie quarterback Jameis Winston (to five different receivers!), producing their highest point total since 2001.

Winston: “I ain't going to cry, but this is a dream come true for me. I always wanted to play here, ever since I was a little boy. I always wanted to be an Eagle. I was even singing the fight song on the sideline. It was a special day for me."

Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans: “We are watching a young quarterback grow before our eyes." 

Head coach Lovie Smith: “We've talked a lot about being relevant again.  Well, we're relevant again." 

Meanwhile, this quote is worthy of note from Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis after his D was gashed for 283 yards on the ground and 238 through the air.  “A game like this will shake your confidence and that's our biggest enemy because it can destroy you.”

The Green Bay Packers snapped a three game skid with a blowout win at Minnesota.  Their defense came up strong, notching six sacks, and Eddie Lacy enjoyed a rare 100 yard rushing effort, taking some of the pressure off Aaron Rodgers and the passing game.   That being said, Rogers still completed fewer than half of his pass attempts.  And his much maligned receiving corps didn’t offer him many easy targets with only James Jones gaining more than 40 yards through the air.

Still, the postgame comments from Rodgers were very positive. “Maybe we'll get you guys off our back for a couple days. We've been taking it on the chin, rightfully so, the last three weeks after a couple real poor performances. This was an important week for us. We really stuck together… I think sometimes we play a little better when we start to get questioned.”

The Denver Broncos snapped a two game skid of their own, with Brock Osweiler getting his first career start in place of Peyton Manning at quarterback.  He completed 20-27 pass attempts for 250 yards without an interception.

Osweiler: "I don't know if anybody believed me, but I really was telling the truth -- I have not wasted a single day sitting behind Peyton. I fully recognize that he might be the greatest quarterback to ever play, if not one of the greatest. I wasn't going to let one of those days go by where I didn't learn something. I've been very appreciative for my situation….I was comfortable from the very first snap.”

Broncos LB Von Miller: “He does this all of the time in practice, in preseason. I kind of came out here and expected it. What he did is what I expected him to do."

Head coach Gary Kubiak: “Brock can do everything. He's a very composed young man and the more he plays, I think, the better he's going to get. He's a sharp young man. He has a lot of confidence in himself and he should obviously gain some more through this experience."

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Betting Podcast 11-23-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

11.23.2015     10:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his famed Opening Line Report for Week 12 of the NFL.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report - Week 12

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus plays drop to 29-24 ATS YTD

11.23.2015     08:33 AM     Printer Friendly


SuperContest consensus plays for Week 11 went 2-3 ATS -- though both Green Bay and Minnesota made the top five thus canceling each other out. The YTD record now stands at 29-24-2 ATS.

1. DALLAS pk at Miami - WIN 
2. NY JETS -2 at Houston - LOSS 
3. GREEN BAY +1 at Minnesota - WIN 
4. CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona - LOSS 
5. MINNESOTA -1 vs. Green Bay - LOSS

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 11 consensus picks

11.21.2015     08:14 PM     View Original Blog
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. DALLAS pk at Miami 
2. NY JETS -2 at Houston 
3. GREEN BAY +1 at Minnesota 
4. CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona 
5. MINNESOTA -1 vs. Green Bay

Least picked Sunday side: Houston +2 vs. NY Jets.

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 11 consensus picks

11.21.2015     08:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. DALLAS pk at Miami 
2. NY JETS -2 at Houston 
3. GREEN BAY +1 at Minnesota 
4. CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona 
5. MINNESOTA -1 vs. Green Bay

Least picked Sunday side: Houston +2 vs. NY Jets.

Tags: NFL

Sportsmemo DFS OVERLAY ALERT + Draft to Help Fight Hunger

11.21.2015     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly


What are you drafting for? 

Want to Try Basketball? 
Play for Just 25 CENTS!




Tags: NFL

Sports Betting Podcast 11-20-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow, Erin Rynning, and Teddy Covers

11.20.2015     12:20 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Teddy Covers. ER and Teddy broke down the NFL Week 11 slate. Brent Crow also joined us to talk college basketball TV games.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Brent Crow - College Basketball

Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part I

Teddy Covers - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL College Basketball Teddy Covers Erin Rynning Brent Crow Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

11.20.2015     11:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Indianapolis at Atlanta 
Sunday, 10 am PT 
CRIS Opener:
Atlanta -6.5 O/U 46 
CRIS Current: Atlanta -6 O/U 47 
Recommendation: Atlanta

The Colts and Falcons went into their respective bye weeks with a very different state of mind.  Indy lost QB Andrew Luck, but they pulled an outright upset over the Broncos, keeping them in first place in the AFC South.  Atlanta, on the other hand, lost back-to-back games to the Bucs and 49ers by a combined four points. 

Since their 4-0 SU and ATS start to the campaign, Dan Quinn’s squad is just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, a dramatically overvalued commodity in recent weeks.  It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons were favored from between -3 to -8 in all five of those ATS losses; the exact same price range that we find Atlanta in again this week.  In fact, Atlanta’s only two wins by more than six points this year came back in Weeks 3 & 4, when they beat the Cowboys with Brandon Weeden and the Texans in Ryan Mallett’s last game as the starter.

Quinn is very familiar with 40 year old Colts backup QB Matt Hasselbeck – the duo spent two years in Seattle together in 2009 and 2010.  Quinn’s quote: “I think the thing that jumps out is the guy’s football smarts. He’s got an ability to anticipate really well—knows what’s coming, knows where to put it. The fact that he’s doing it as long as he has speaks to the competitor in him, as well.”  Local reports indicate that the Colts are planning to ‘take the reins off’ Frank Gore this week, utilizing a relatively rare (for Indy) run-first gameplan on Sunday.

The Falcons run defense has been their strength all year, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry; among the top five teams in the league in that key statistical category.  Indy’s struggling offensive line hasn’t exactly been blowing holes open for their backs – Indy is below the league average, gaining only 4.0 yards per rush.  And Quinn’s defensive mindset is primed to pay dividends following the bye week;  prime time for a first year head coach to clean things up.

The Falcons haven’t been losing games because of their defense – it’s Matt Ryan and the offense that has come up short.  During their four game winning streak to open the season, the Falcons hung at least 24 on their opponent in every game.  During their current five game ATS losing streak, they haven’t scored more than 21 points in regulation. 

Ryan’s quotes sound pretty confident that they can turn things around against the Colts suspect defense: “(We)  just need to get back to executing in the way we are capable of. I think areas that we need to improve are third downs and red zone. In order to be better in those situations, to me it comes down to making the plays when you have the opportunity.”  The Falcons have worked extensively on their no-huddle, uptempo offense in practice this week; bad news for a Colts defense short on both depth and talent.

I don’t believe this is a good matchup for Hasselbeck, and under no circumstances am I willing to accept that there’s no drop-off for the Colts when their stud QB is forced to sit, replaced by a 40 year old with wins over the Jags and Texans on his resume.  I don’t think this is a good matchup for Indy’s defense either, and the markets have certainly cooled on Atlanta since their hot start.  Laying less than a TD with the Falcons is the only way I can look here.

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Atlanta Falcons Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: North Texas Mean Green at MTSU Blue Raiders

11.20.2015     11:04 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
North Texas at Middle Tennessee State 
Saturday, 9 pm PT 
CRIS Opener:
MTSU -23 O/U 61 
CRIS Current: MTSU -24 O/U 64 
Recommendation: Over 
The North Texas Mean Green is headed back to the state of Tennessee for the second straight week, this time to take on long-time rival Middle Tennessee. The Mean Green lost to the Tennessee Volunteers 24-0 last week in a game UNT was more competitive than many expected on the defensive side of the ball. Middle Tennessee has hit a stride offensively led by redshirt freshman quarterback Brent Stockstill who is head coach Rick Stockstill’s son. Stockstill eclipsed the 3,000 yard mark last week and has been ultra-efficient as well throwing for 23 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions with a 65% completion percentage.  MTSU has superior athletes as well on the outside most notably Richie James, a high school quarterback ranked as a three-star athlete, they moved to wide receiver. James leads C-USA with an average of 8.2 receptions a game and ranks second in receiving yards at 103.7 a game.  MTSU has also picked up the pace offensively averaging 83 plays ran per game their last three games up over 6% from their season average. 

North Texas made a change at the quarterback position a few weeks ago and has seen an uptick in offensive performance, scoring 28 points or more in two of their last five games; a feat the Mean Green had not accomplished before naming Demarcus Smith the starter. Last week the Mean Green were obviously shutout, but when you look into the situations and yardage metrics it was not an issue of moving the ball. UNT’s struggles were particularly apparent on third and fourth down. The Mean Green converted just two of their 12 third downs and didn’t convert on either of their fourth-down attempts, including a fake punt. The Mean Green under interim head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Canales has shown in recent weeks the propensity to take chances and go for it on fourth down, the kind of volatility I like to have when betting on an over. With the nothing to lose mentality of North Texas and the recent uptick in tempo for MTSU combined with the loose atmosphere in Murfreesboro we’ll look to the over.

Tags: College Football North Texas Mean Green Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders C-USA Drew Martin

Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 11-19-2015

11.19.2015     11:18 AM     Printer Friendly


Here's our Week 12 College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Handicappers Drew Martin, Ian Cameron, and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Drew Martin - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I (311-345)

Ian Cameron - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II (347-381)

Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III (383-417)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Drew Martin Ian Cameron Rob Veno Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes

11.19.2015     08:57 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Georgia Tech at Miami (FL) 
Saturday, 9:30 am PT 
CRIS Opener:
Miami -1 O/U 56.5 
CRIS Current: Georgia Tech -2 O/U 55.5 
Recommendation: Miami

Nothing more than pride at stake here in this ACC Coastal Division matchup so hard to know if each side will come with maximum effort. Miami already has six wins and a bowl bid but the incentive of winning their last two games in order to get a better one could motivate them more than the 3-7 Yellow Jackets. Tech does have its in-state rival Georgia next week at home so maybe they are looking ahead to that as their bowl game. However, bettors have to be careful handicapping this one as a “mailing it in” type of effort on Georgia Tech’s part because their Paul Johnson insists his team has not given up on the season. Johnson says his team has given maximum effort all season but he feels 2015 has been more of a “Murphy’s Law” type campaign. Earlier this week he said "This year, it seems like whatever has had a chance to go wrong goes wrong, and I think you make your own breaks, "I'm not crying about that. We've got to do a better job of doing the detailed things to make our own breaks." "I think that this team has continued to try to play hard, I think they want to do well.”

For Miami, it was obvious in last week’s 59-21 loss at North Carolina that ex-head coach Al Golden was not the real problem in Coral Gables. The 487 total yards allowed by the Hurricanes in that contest marked the seventh time in their last eight games that the defense has allowed 407 or more. The only three opponents to not hit the 400 yard plateau against Miami this season are FCS Bethune-Cookman (weather shortened game), Florida Atlantic (75th nationally ypg) and Virginia Tech (80th ypg). Key injuries have taken a toll on each of these squads this season and Ga Tech has been forced to play 23 freshmen (10 true) because of that.

Fundamentals here are easy to decipher and they draw instant conclusions that will likely hold up in this game. The largest negative is the Georgia Tech passing offense which unlike recent years has not been able to sporadically complement their option offense with significant gains. On the season, Tech QB Justin Thomas is completing just 42.6% of his passes after hitting 51.3% last year. Without the ability to connect over the top more consistently, the Yellow Jackets offense has sputtered the last eight games averaging just 345.5 ypg and 23.6 ppg. Miami is by no means a defensive juggernaut and they’ve been stung by rushing attacks to the tune of 202.7 ypg but Georgia Tech’s lack of ground production the past couple of games (144 yards at Virginia and 161 yards vs. Virginia Tech) isn’t helping right now.

The return of Miami starting QB Brad Kaaya last week didn’t matter at all but it could matter here since the only three balanced offenses Georgia Tech has faced this year all went for 30+ points and 417+ yards. The ‘Canes have taken good care of the ball this year committing just 11 turnovers and Georgia Tech has not been a  strong takeaway team (14 in their last 9 games) which figure to give an advantage to Miami. Georgia Tech just seems to be out of sync and it doesn’t seem like they’re going to be able to change that even with the extra time to prepare. Miami needs to give the crowd a nice finish to their home season and have to believe that’s what they’ll do here. Line has flipped and Miami has gone from -1 to +2 so the lean here will be toward the home underdog. 

Tags: College Football Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Miami (FL) Hurricanes ACC Rob Veno

College Football Betting News: Baylor QB dealing with back issues

11.19.2015     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baylor could be in a sticky situation for Saturday's game at Oklahoma State. Former backup and current starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham is dealing with a bruised back. He's likely to play but if not, the Bears' third stringer, Chris Johnson, would get the call. Johnson has spent parts of the season playing wide receiver. Saturday's game is currently lined at a pick 'em.

"Honestly, not as far along as what I'd like for him to be," Briles said. "We'll see in the next day or two."

Tags: College Football Baylor Bears Oklahoma State Cowboys Big XII

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