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Sports Betting Podcast 8-26-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno

08.26.2016     10:57 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno. Teddy previewed the Washington Redskins and Rob broke down Saturday and Sunday's NFL Preseason games.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - NFL Preview Washington Redskins

Rob Veno - NFL Preseason (Saturday & Sunday)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Teddy Covers Rob Veno



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-26-2016: Washington Redskins

08.26.2016     10:54 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy wrapped up his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the Washington Redskins.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/26 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: Washington Redskins 
2015-16 Record: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7ov-132 
Odds to Win NFC: +2500 
Odds to Win NFC East: +355 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +4300 
Week 1 Line: Washington +3 vs. Pittsburgh

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Teddy Covers



NFL Preseason Handicapping: Broncos starters get extended look vs. Rams, Siemian to start

08.25.2016     10:15 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver head coach Gary Kubiak wants his starters to play into the second half of Saturday's preseason game against Los Angeles. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was named the starter with Mark Sanchez and Paxton Lynch expected to split the remainder of the game. The Broncos have taken early money with the line up from -4 to -5.

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Los Angeles Rams



NFL Preseason Betting: Pittsburgh's Big Ben, Brown, and Bell to play vs. Saints

08.25.2016     10:20 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are all expected to play in Friday's preseason game at New Orleans. Head coach Mike Tomlin did not specify how much action they would get. The Saints were bet heavily early today as the line jumped from -1.5 to as high as -3.


“I feel like I could go into the regular season and do it, but I’d like to be to there because it’s a different speed,” Roethlisberger said. “You want to get out. I wouldn’t even mind getting hit once maybe after the ball’s gone, just a little tap from someone.”



Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New Orleans Saints



NFL Preseason Gambling: Minnesota continues to cash tickets under Zimmer

08.25.2016     10:09 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer downplayed the importance of Sunday's preseason game vs. San Diego saying Week 1 of the regular season remains the team's top priority. That said, no one can deny Minny's ability to cash tickets in these "meaningless" games. Since becoming head coach, the Vikings are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, and 3-7-1 O/U under Zimmer in the preseason. The Vikings are currently -4.5 home favorites over the Chargers.


"I still want to know what our guys know without having to try to scheme somebody else," Zimmer said. "We're just going to go play and do what we do. I know everybody says, 'Dress rehearsal,' but I don't know if it's like that any more. At least, it hasn't been like that for me for a long time."

"Obviously, we want to look good," Zimmer said. "If we're not ready, then I'm not going to (automatically rest players). It just depends. I know everybody judges off just the games, but we have to judge off practice every day, watching tape, seeing what guys do and things like that."



Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings San Diego Chargers



NFL Preseason Betting: Carolina starters to play into third quarter vs. New England

08.25.2016     10:00 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Carolina Panthers' starters are expected to play into the third quarter of Friday's game against New England. This will mark the third straight season the two squads have met in Week 3 of the preseason. Last year, New England won 17-16 at a +1.5 underdog. In 2014, the Patriots cruised to a 30-7 victory as -6 chalk. The Panthers are currently -3.5 home favorite for Friday's tilt.


“This is, to a degree, the dress rehearsal, but we’re going out and do what we do,” Rivera said. “We’ve looked at what they’ve done in the preseason and that’s what we’re game-planning against.”



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New England Patriots



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

08.25.2016     09:55 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle (Paxton) -140 at Chicago (Ranaudo) O/U 9.5 
Recommendation: Seattle


The Chicago White Sox host the Seattle Mariners tonight for the opener of a four-game series. A couple key metrics point to the M’s snapping their two-game skid vs. a struggling pitcher for the White Sox. Anthony Ranaudo will be making his third start since being acquired from Texas and first since escaping with a no decision at Cleveland on Aug. 17 -- five runs and eight hits allowed in four innings. The 26-year-old native of New Jersey has yielded eight runs and 10 hits, including four homers, over 10.2 innings in his two outings with Chicago. He will be opposing James Paxton, the hard throwing Canadian lefty who is making his first start coming off the disabled list. He had a promising start with three strikeouts in three innings for Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday. Reports stated that Paxton's command and velocity were good. Paxton is someone with a ton of upside but over the course of a full season, will lose his mechanics and thus struggle. But when he's on, the stuff is as good as any lefty starter in the game. Prior to a quick stint on the DL, Paxton put together four starts in which he allowed only five earned runs and flashed an impressive 27-3 K-to-BB ratio. Note that the Mariners will also have an edge in the late innings as the White Sox bullpen grades out as one of the worst in the American League. Plenty of edges here to warrant the road chalk.

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox Drew Martin



Sports Betting Podcast 8-25-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron

08.25.2016     09:29 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron. Brent and host Andrew Lange talked about Thursday and Friday's NFL Preseason games while Ian discussed CFL Week 10.

Today's segments 
Full Show - NFLX (Fri-Sat) and CFL Week 10

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL CFL Brent Crow Ian Cameron



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 8-24-2016: Penn State Nittany Lions

08.24.2016     09:52 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Rob Veno. Rob kicked continued his coverage of the Big Ten with a breakdown of the Penn State Nittany Lions.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ROB'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/24 
Handicapper: Rob Veno 
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions 
2015 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-5 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7un-115 
Odds to Win Title: +37000 
Odds to Win Big Ten: +4000 
Odds to Win Big Ten East: +1200 
Week 1 Line: Penn State -20 vs. Kent State

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Penn State Nittany Lions Big Ten Rob Veno



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-24-2016: Philadelphia Eagles

08.24.2016     09:51 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the Philadelphia Eagles.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/24 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: Philadelphia Eagles 
2015-16 Record: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 6.5ov-125 
Odds to Win NFC: +3000 
Odds to Win NFC East: +475 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +6300 
Week 1 Line: Philadelphia -6 vs. Cleveland

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Teddy Covers



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins

08.24.2016     09:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas City (Gee) +200 at Miami (Fernandez) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Kansas City


I understand how well Jose Fernandez has pitched at home in his career, compiling a ridiculous 26-2 mark with a 1.62 ERA at Marlins Park.  His numbers have been steady and consistent throughout the 2016 campaign as well: 9-2 with a 2.07 ERA in Miami.  The betting attention that Fernandez has attracted during this long term run of excellence has resulted in prices like the one we’re seeing here, with Miami priced higher than 2:1 to win tonight’s game.

There’s one big problem with those long term, aggregate numbers – they don’t factor in current form.  Let’s not forget that Fernandez made only 11 starts last year and eight starts in 2014, dealing with the aftermath of Tommy John surgery.  He’s already thrown 141.2 innings this year, far more than in either of the last two seasons.  And Fernandez sure looks like he’s wearing down right now.  Miami is 0-4 in his last four starts (all as favorites, including a home loss at -240), and Fernandez has an ERA of 6.00 during that span.  That’s not what I’m looking for out of my -230 favorites!

Royals starter Dillon Gee attracts ZERO betting market attention, a league average pitcher personified.  But Gee is coming off his best start of the season, needing only 84 pitches to throw seven innings of one run, five hit ball against the Twins.  And there’s a lot more to this game than just a starting pitching matchup that may not be in the Marlins favor as much as the markets seem to think it is.

The Royals are the hottest team in baseball, winners of nine straight and 13 of their last 14.  KC is only four games out of the Wild Card spot, surging right now.   Marlins injured sluggers  Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour (a duo with 40 home runs this season; the rest of the team has 66) were just joined by infielder Derek Dietrich on the DL. There’s a chance that their last remaining slugger Marcel Ozuna could miss tonight as well, after getting pulled from the game last night due to an undisclosed family emergency.

KC still has a truly elite bullpen, ranked #1 in all of MLB in ERA again this year after slamming the door shut again last night in the 1-0 thriller.  And, of course, KC has been playing tough games in hostile environments on their way to the World Series over the past two Octobers.  Miami hasn’t finished above .500 since 2009 and their last playoff game came back in 2003; not exactly a ‘battle tested’ team in these type of playoff atmosphere games.  That’s an awful lot of fodder for a play on KC tonight as big underdogs

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Teddy Covers



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

08.24.2016     07:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York (deGrom) at St. Louis (Martinez) O/U -120 O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Under


Looking to play tonight's New York-St. Louis game under the total with two above average starters and a key number of 7.5. St. Louis's Carlos Martinez has a ton of talent but has a tendency to lose it mentally on the mound. When he's not battling himself upstairs, the results are there. After losing five straight starts in late May, Martinez has been one of the best starters in the National League with a 2.66 ERA over his last 14 starts. In his last outing he took yet another step forward by focusing less on velocity and more of command and movement. It paid off in spades as he allowed only one run over seven innings at Houston. New York's Jacob deGrom's velocity recently returned to 2015's levels. Prior to his last start, deGrom had allowed only two earned runs over 27.2 innings. Last Thursday, the Giants pounded him for 13 hits and eight earned runs. deGrom chalked up the outing and nothing more than missing a few spots in key situations. In 15 of his 22 starts, he's allowed two earned runs or less. He should be able to navigate a banged up Cardinals lineup that is still without Matt Holliday and Michael Adams. Overall, the matchup appears ripe for a lower scoring game.

Tags: MLB New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Lange



College Football Betting: Virginia Tech adjusts to life at warp speed

08.24.2016     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Virginia Tech is one of a handful of teams that feature a first-year head coach implementing a completely different offensive system. Justin Fuente's plan is for the Hokies to play up-tempo. At no point during former head coach Frank Beamer's tenure did the offense stray from being “conventional.” Some of VT's players hinted that the change is significant and something that will likely take time to adjust to.


“Last year I was playing maybe 70-80 plays a game,” Phillips said, “and in this system, with the things we like to do now, that’s very, very difficult. You could call it unhealthy if you want.”

“I like the faster pace a lot,” Hodges said. “It creates a lot of mismatches. … The tempo is very different from previous years. The play-calling, the play design, are things I haven’t seen.”



Tags: College Football Virginia Tech Hokies ACC



NFL Preseason Gambling: Belichick reiterates Week 3 just another preseason game

08.24.2016     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shot down the idea that Week 3's "dress rehearsal" resembles anything close to the regular season. Historically, the Patriots are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS over the last eight seasons in Week 3. Two of those wins and covers came the last two years against the Carolina Panthers -- the same opponent New England plays Friday. The Panthers are currently -3.5 home favorites.

2015: SU and ATS win vs. Carolina 
2014: SU and ATS win vs. Carolina 
2013: SU and ATS loss vs. Detroit 
2012: SU and ATS loss vs. Tampa Bay 
2011: SU and ATS loss vs. Detroit 
2010: SU and ATS loss vs. St. Louis 
2009: SU win, ATS loss vs. Washington 
2008: SU and ATS loss vs. Philadelphia


"I don't. I don't know what that means," Belichick said. "In terms of playing time it might be a little different, but in terms of game-planning and strategy, what we see in the regular season compared to what we see the in third preseason game I don't even think you're in the same universe. We're still running our basic plays and we'd expect our opponents would run their basic plays. You get to the opener and start to get to game-planning and scheme, I mean you're in a totally different ballpark, in my opinion. I don't see any comparison at all. It's too far away, I don't see how you could compare them, from that standpoint.

"One-on-one matchups, letting the players play, yeah, I would say you have a better matchup of guys like that, but it's nothing compared to what we're going to see in the regular season from a total scheme situation standpoint."



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers



NFL Preseason Handicapping: Colts to play starters into the third quarter

08.24.2016     06:47 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Update on Indianapolis' game plan for Saturday's preseason home game against Philadelphia. The team's starters are expected to play into the third quarter. The Colts are currently -3 favorites.


“We’d like to get a good half of football in and try to come out and go through a halftime procedure and make the appropriate adjustments on both sides of the ball and on special teams and open up the third quarter,” Pagano said. “That’s what you put down on paper for this preseason game and then you see how that first half goes and if we reach a number play count wise that we feel good about, that may or may not happen based on what happens in the first half. You’d like to really get them to blow out their lungs, so to speak, and play a significant amount of time.”



Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Philadelphia Eagles



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 8-23-2016: Oregon Ducks

08.23.2016     11:15 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured handicapper Drew Martin. Drew and host Andrew Lange continued PAC-12 coverage with a breakdown of the Oregon Ducks.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO DREW'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/23 
Handicapper: Drew Martin 
Team: Oregon Ducks 
2015 Record: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8ov-140 
Odds to Win Title: +5000 
Odds to Win PAC-12: +570 
Odds to Win PAC-12 North: +290 
Week 1 Line: Oregon NL vs. UC Davis

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Oregon Ducks PAC-12 Drew Martin



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-23-2016: New York Giants

08.23.2016     11:18 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the New York Giants.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/24 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: New York Giants 
2015-16 Record: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 11-5 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8ov-130 
Odds to Win NFC: +1500 
Odds to Win NFC East: +210 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +3350 
Week 1 Line: NY Giants +3.5 at Dallas

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL New York Giants Teddy Covers



NFL Betting News: New Orleans hopes new DC will spark improvement

08.23.2016     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's been a revolving door of defensive coordinators in New Orleans and this year is no different as Dennis Allen steps in for Rob Ryan. It was widely accepted that head coach Sean Payton didn't get along with Ryan whose unit allowed a league-worst 29.8 ppg last season. The media claims that Payton and Allen have been buddy-buddy and are on the same page heading into the season. The Saints' defense will be tested early on with five of their first seven games against offenses than ranked in the top 11 in the NFL in yard per game last season.

Tags: NFL New Orleans Saints



College Football Handicapping: Missouri starts from scratch with new OC

08.23.2016     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting take on Missouri first-year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel who served at the same position at Oklahoma and Utah State. Note that Heupel was fired from OU after the 2014 season and the following year, the Sooners boasted one of the best offenses in the country though the upgrade from quarterback Travis Knight to Baker Mayfield was a big factor. Last season under Heupel, Utah State ranked 93rd nationally in total offense. He gets a fresh start in Columbia and has a lot of work to do after the Tigers ranked dead last in the SEC at 280.9 ypg of total offense.


“I knew Josh (Heupel) pretty well when I covered Oklahoma,” Haney said. “It just hadn’t gone well for him, whether it was at OU or the injury issues at Utah State. I just don’t know if he’s the guy you want trying to re-imagine that offense. If it does work out, it’s going to take quite a bit of time.”



Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers SEC



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-22-2016: Dallas Cowboys

08.22.2016     11:09 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy kicked off his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/22 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: Dallas Cowboys 
2015-16 Record: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 9ov-135 
Odds to Win NFC: +1050 
Odds to Win NFC East: +175 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +2350 
Week 1 Line: Dallas -3.5 vs. NY Giants

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 8-22-2016: Michigan State Spartans

08.22.2016     11:05 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Rob Veno. Rob Veno continued his coverage of the Big Ten with a breakdown of the Michigan State Spartans.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ROB'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/22 
Handicapper: Rob Veno 
Team: Michigan State Spartans 
2015 Record: 12-2 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8ov-140 
Odds to Win Title: +7000 
Odds to Win Big Ten: +1100 
Odds to Win Big Ten East: +540 
Week 1 Line: Michigan State NL vs. Furman

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Rob Veno



Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part II

08.22.2016     09:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, in Part I of my Wiseguy Report on NFL Preseason Betting strategies, I listed a handful of key mantras for winning in August. Don’t confuse a team’s regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.  Bet on teams in August that have a battle for their starting QB spot.  Know your coaches and their track records in various roles (and in various weeks).  And bet information, not opinions. 

All of those stand as solid mainstream advice; the stuff the markets are paying attention to.  This week, in Part II — preseason advanced handicapping methods —  I’m going to write about the things that the markets don’t pay enough attention to...but they probably should!

Let me start with a bold statement: "3" is not the most important key number when it comes to betting in the NFL reason.  Neither is "7".  No, the most important pointspread number in August is the number "1."  The difference between pick ‘em and + or -1.5 is MUCH bigger now than at any other part of the season.

Why?  It’s simple.  In the regular season, coaches who are trailing play for overtime; looking to set up the game tying field goal when down by three, for example.  In the preseason, when a coach is trailing by three in the final minutes, he has only one choice — going for it on fourth down in an effort to get the game winning touchdown.  Any coach who kicked a field goal in August in that situation would be viewed as a pariah.  It (almost) never happens.

It’s the same story when a team scores late, trailing by only one prior to the extra point attempt.  That extra point attempt would never happen in August like it would happen EVERY SINGLE TIME in September — it’s ALWAYS a two point conversion try in the preseason, win or lose.

In the regular season, coaches who are winning won’t make aggressive moves to avoid overtime. You’ll never see a coach who just scored a touchdown to go up by seven points attempt a two point conversion try to go up by nine.  Instead, they’ll always, always, always kick that extra point to go up by eight.  But here in the preseason, you’ll see coaches like Baltimore’s John Harbaugh following a TD to lead by seven going for two in an effort to get up by nine points, avoiding any chance of OT.

There have been six games decided by a single point through the first two weeks of the preseason, fairly typical for this time of the year — three each week.  All of those games featured two point conversion tries that were the difference between a straight up win and a loss.

Meanwhile, the ONLY game that’s landed on "3" thus far was the Ravens-Panthers Week 1 affair mentioned above, in which Harbaugh went for two up by seven, giving Baltimore a nine point lead.  As a result, the Panthers were down by three points facing a fourth and goal from the four yard line on their final drive.  In the preseason, that means chuck it to the end zone not kick the game tying field goal so we can get this game into overtime. 

The betting markets still move to -3 (-125) or -3 (-130) before moving off the 3 to 2.5 or 3.5, just like they do in the regular season.  The markets do NOT make any significant adjustments when it comes to pricing the + or -1’s in August.  That, folks, is the definition of a real edge, one that I probably shouldn’t be talking about in a publicly read column.

Here’s a second key factor that the markets tend to under-react to.  Pointspread outcomes are usually determined after halftime.  Over the first two weeks of the preseason there have literally been only a handful of games that have been done ATS wise, by halftime.  The vast majority of August games — just like those played in September and beyond — see pointspread fortunes come to fruition over the latter stages of the contest.

Yet the markets focus on first half player rotations as much as any other factor.  Savvy bettors did deeper.  How long is the second string offensive line slated to play?  What about the backup cornerbacks, as opposed to the third stringers, guys who are just hoping to earn a roster spot?  Mobile QB’s without experience are often worth more in August than veteran QB’s who stand like a statue in the pocket, unable to create with their feet.  If you dig for quality second half information, from local sources you’re preseason results should improve, plain and simple.

The third factor I’m going to write about here has to do with injuries. When you read injury reports for preseason NFL games, they tend to focus on starters, and in particular on guys who deliver the goods in fantasy football.  This star wide receiver is going to sit, that star running back, this pro bowl defensive end, etc.  Everybody is drafting their fantasy leagues at this time of the year and the mainstream media is well aware that ‘mainstream’ viewers are interested in fantasy news far more than in sports betting news.

Savvy bettors take advantage.  The issue is not how many star players are hurt.  The issue IS whether those injuries are grouped together, leaving a particular unit severely understaffed.  Cluster injuries are worth their weight in gold at this stage of the season. 

When a coach has an injury problem in his defensive backfield, his entire gameplan changes — avoid more injuries, keep everything vanilla.  If two undrafted rookies have to play for three full quarters, so be it.  If his receivers are banged up, you’ll likely see a run heavy gameplan that isn’t good news for their backers.  If it’s an offensive line that has cluster injuries, you’ll see a gameplan created to minimize future injury concerns at that position.  When a team is missing six starters from a preseason game, the markets notice, probably more than they should.  But when a team is missing six defensive linemen from their rotation, it has a MUCH bigger impact on their expected gameplan and their likely pointspread result.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



NFL Handicapping: League decides to ditch probable tag on injury report

08.22.2016     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Well figuring out who is and isn't playing on Sundays just got a little more difficult. The NFL announced that it will no longer use "probable" for a player's status but instead use "questionable," "doubtful," or "out." It sounds as if those players once listed as "probable" -- a vast majority of which always played -- will now be "questionable."


Two days before kickoff, teams must list injured players as "questionable," "doubtful" or "out" for that game.

"Questionable" players, per the policy, are "uncertain" to play. Previously, the definition was that there was a 50 percent likelihood of playing.

"Doubtful" means the player is "unlikely" to participate in the game, and "out" means he "will not play." The previous definition for "doubtful" was a 75 percent likelihood that he would not play.



Tags: NFL



Check out Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno's 2016 College Football Betting Guide

08.22.2016     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Be sure to pick up a copy of Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno's 2016 College Football Betting Guide on Amazon.com. Lot of great information to help you prepare for the upcoming season.

Tags: College Football Rob Veno



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 8-19-2016: Iowa Hawkeyes

08.19.2016     08:42 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin Rynning continued his coverage of the Big Ten with a breakdown of the Iowa Hawkeyes.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ERIN'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/19 
Handicapper: Erin Rynning 
Team: Iowa Hawkeyes 
2015 Record: 12-2 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 9 
Odds to Win Title: +9500 
Odds to Win Big Ten: +750 
Odds to Win Big Ten West: +170 
Week 1 Line: Iowa -27.5 vs. Miami-Ohio

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten Erin Rynning






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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 27, 2016 08:12 AM.