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Sports Betting Podcast 7-31-2014 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno

07.31.2014     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno. Ian talked CFL Week 6 while Rob and host Andrew Lange discussed College Football Independents.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Ian Cameron - CFL Week 6

Rob Veno - College Football Independents

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: CFL College Football Ian Cameron Rob Veno




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes

07.31.2014     08:24 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto at Montreal -3 O/U 48 (Friday) 
Recommendation: Montreal


The bye week angle in the CFL is on a perfect 3-0 ATS run and this week’s rested-and-ready squad, Montreal, should be a good spot following back-to-back losses. Montreal’s problems remain on offense as quarterback Troy Smith works behind a rebuilt offensive line and new offensive coordinator. There does however seem to be a fair amount home/road dichotomy with the Alouettes hanging 33 and 24 in their two home games. Montreal will also get one of their most promising young receivers back with Duron Carter not having played since Week 1. Also note that Montreal has faced some pretty good defenses whereas Toronto ranks near the bottom of the league in a number of defense categories. The Argos have their own offensive concerns having scored just 41 points in their last three games. Quarterback Ricky Ray has struggled mightily behind an offensive line that is now dealing with injuries and personnel changes. Toronto is also likely to be without their top four wide receiver with Chad Owens, Andre Durie, Jason Barnes, and John Chiles all expected to be out of the lineup. Both of these squads have issues but this is a far more favorable spot for a Montreal team that is getting healthier while Toronto is playing its three straight road tilt in as many weeks.  Lay the short price with the home side.

ICC CFL Week 6 Card [AWESOME 9-3 75% CFL L2 Weeks | 4 Plays At Discounted Rate] $59 
Ian Cameron has hammered the books in the CFL over the last 2 weeks with a wicked 9-3 75% streak collecting +7.7 units of profit during that span and he's back this week with another strong CFL card for Week 6 consisting of four plays! You'll get his 20* CFL Saturday Main Event and three 10* CFL reports for the discounted rate of $59. The package must produce a profit or Ian's next CFL card is free. 
 


Tags: CFL Toronto Argonauts Montreal Alouettes Ian Cameron




Casino cheat's reign comes to an end after ridiculous gaffe

07.31.2014     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Story of a casino cheat who managed to stay under the radar for 15 years only to be busted at a Pennsylvania casino for using his real name and birthday (!!!???) to sign up for a player's club card.


“For a cardsharp, he wasn’t too sharp,” said Las Vegas casino consultant George Joseph.

“Guys like Chahine are what I call low-level, repeat offenders, versus the ones who go in for the big haul,” said Karl Bennison, chief of enforcement for the Nevada Gaming Control Board. “Who knows how many times he was successful, but if you can get away with it, cheating can be profitable.”



Tags: CFL Toronto Argonauts Montreal Alouettes Ian Cameron




Sports Betting Podcast 7-30-2014 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Ian Cameron

07.30.2014     10:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Ian Cameron. Teddy talked AFC North while Ian broke down tonight's MLB game with host Andrew Lange.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Teddy Covers - AFC North Preview

Ian Cameron - MLB Night Games

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL MLB Teddy Covers Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

07.30.2014     10:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Yankees (Kuroda) -135 at Texas (Lewis) O/U 9 
Recommendation: New York


The Rangers have been consistent losers for months; an easy team to fade in this ‘short underdog’ price range.  They rallied for seven runs in the final three innings against the Yankees bullpen last night but still came up a run short, when Adrian Beltre’s long fly ball with the bases loaded in the ninth was caught on the warning track.

Frustrating losses aren’t new or different for Ron Washington’s squad this year.  They are 3-8 in their last eleven games since the All Star Break; 7-30 since they were last at .500 back on June 16th.  When a team that expected to compete for the playoffs goes 23 games under .500 in less than seven weeks, you know that they’re in full-on tank mode.

The Rangers have a legitimate home field disadvantage these days, because the home field is priced into their lines but they aren’t winning games on this field against anybody, playing in front of lethargic crowds.  A 4-14 record in their last 18 on this field isn’t exactly a home field edge!

The Yankees broke out of their offensive funk yesterday with a 12 run outburst.  And there’s little reason to think the Bronx Bombers won’t be able to bomb away against Colby Lewis this evening.  Lewis is 1-5 with an 8.40 ERA at home this year.  The Rangers are 2-7 in his nine home starts; 2-6 in his last eight starts overall.  He just lost to the Yankees in his last start, giving the Yanks a short turnaround second look against a struggling hurler.  Behind Lewis, the Rangers dismally ineffective bullpen is completely spent.

Hiroki Kuroda has only allowed more than four runs once in 21 starts this year.  He’s got a great track record against these Rangers, allowing only four earned runs in 29 innings of work against Texas since the start of 2011. And while the Yankees bullpen got hammered last night, that pen is still ‘head and shoulders’ ahead of the awful Rangers bullpen in just about every key statistical category.

T. Covers 20* MLB Big Ticket Wrong Team Favored [6-0 100% 20* Hot Streak] $29 
Teddy has nailed six straight 20* Big Ticket winners including a lucky cash for himself and his clients with Oakland Over last night. His MLB is in excellent current form, hitting 67% over the past three weeks. Do Not Miss another 20* Big Ticket winner on Wednesday; a classic Wrong Team Favored situation. This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Texas Rangers Teddy Covers




Phil Ivey attempts to bail illegal sports bettors out of jail

07.30.2014     08:17 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Phil Ivey and another unnamed poker pro reportedly attempted to post bail for the two men tied to the illegal sports betting operation that was taken down last month at Caesars Palace. The Feds weren't having it however with both men, Malaysian citizens, in line to be deported.




World Cup sports betting ring busted as Las Vegas casino

07.16.2014     07:47 AM     View Original Blog
Huge illegal sports betting ring taken down at Las Vegas' Caesars Palace. One of the accused is high-stakes poker player Paul Phua. You can watch Las Vegas' KLAS report here.




Tags: Las Vegas




New Jersey's fight for sports betting is exhausting

07.30.2014     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When are article on legalizing sports betting using a gambling reference in its title, it's typically not a good sign. New Jersey Sen. Ray Lesniak has been the voice of the pro-gambling movement and still thinks he's betting Week 1 NFL. His technique thus far has essentially been to chuck it against the wall and hope it sticks, i.e. challenge every law from every angle. It is an admirable approach, but if you live in New Jersey and like betting the NFL, we strongly suggest you don't delete your bookies' phone number just yet. 


“I plan on placing my first bet at Monmouth racetrack on Sept. 8 for the Giants to beat the spread against the Lions on ‘Monday Night Football,’” he said.

“The Justice Department didn’t haul our state into court over the sports-betting law, the sports leagues did,” the newspaper said editorially. “You know, those organizations with the hooey about the integrity of their games being undermined if someone bet on one at Caesars in AC, but not if they did the same thing at Caesars in Vegas.

“It’s illogical and unfair, but another state law means another suit from the deep-pocketed leagues.”

 


Tags: NFL




CFL Week 5 Betting News and Notes

07.30.2014     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my Week 5 CFL News and Notes as we examine each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) 
Toronto just can’t be expected to be competitive and move the football offensively until they get some of their injury-decimated receiving corps back. Saskatchewan drilled Toronto 37-9 on Saturday night as quarterback Ricky Ray and the Argos’ struggling offense once again sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers, and penalties throughout the game. They got off to a horrible start an interception and fumble on their first two drives which led directly to Saskatchewan touchdowns. The revamped defense struggled and is being asked to carry a team that when healthy is very capable offensively. There is a possibility that not a single one of Toronto’s top four wideouts will return vs. Montreal. Head coach Scott Milanovich held an impromptu meeting with the team’s veteran players prior to the blowout loss against Saskatchewan and it didn’t help. Toronto is saying the right things this week but a third straight road game in as many weeks against a rested and ready Montreal squad won’t be easy.

Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) 
Montreal has had two weeks to think about its brutal 41-5 loss in BC. The offense has been the focus of their practice efforts as quarterback Troy Smith and the Alouettes have had problems moving the football and scoring points aside from the narrow 34-33 loss against Winnipeg. The defense has been good but the offense needs to improve. Fascinating matchup with Montreal playing host to Toronto this weekend – two teams that are really struggling offensively.

Ottawa RedBlacks (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) 
The RedBlacks didn’t necessarily suffer a hangover after their emotional first win of the season. The problem was instead that they simply had no answers for the dual threat capabilities of Hamilton quarterback Dan LeFevour who was making his first CFL regular season start. The Central Michigan alum was dynamic both running and throwing the football, piling up over 300 passing yards and over 100 rushing yards. The fact there was no previous game film of LeFevour in a meaningful CFL regular season game likely didn’t help Ottawa’s cause either. The game was tied in the fourth quarter but the difference was Hamilton’s defense made stops and Ottawa’s didn’t as the RedBlacks yielded the critical 50+ yard screen pass to Ticats running back C.J. Gable to set up the game winning touchdown drive. Ottawa though remains competitive almost every week. They will try to make it 2-0 at home but must do it against the formidable defending Grey Cup champions, Saskatchewan.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS) 
Hamilton took advantage of its first home game with a win over the expansion Ottawa RedBlacks. Hamilton had previously played three tough road games against the West Division to start the season – lost to Edmonton and Calgary by a combined 7 points. The Ticats are a better team than their 0-3 record showed and they finally had a breakout game offensively as quarterback Dan LeFevour played exceptional in his first start. He made a strong case to possibly remain the squad’s #1 QB even when Zach Collaros returns from injury. The offensive line which has been much maligned finally held up better in pass protection and opened up space for running back C.J. Gable. The defense wasn’t as strong as they were in Calgary last week but they were playing a highly motivated veteran quarterback Henry Burris who felt spurned by Hamilton in the offseason when they opted not to renew his contract. I can see Hamilton going on a bit of a run following that tough early slate. They’ll have a chance to keep the momentum going Thursday night but must do it against a Winnipeg Blue Bombers team that is playing very well.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) 
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers proved me wrong last week. I expected them to suffer a second straight loss against BC but instead they won going away. Winnipeg started 3-0 by beating a trio of teams from the weaker East Division before losing decisively 26-3 at home against Edmonton – who is obviously from the tougher West Division. However, Winnipeg proved it could hang with the big boys of the West last week when they strolled into BC and dominated the Lions from start to finish en route to a 23-6 win. Quarterback Drew Willy was rock solid and avoided big mistakes. The defense, especially up front, disrupted BC quarterback Kevin Glenn all night long and stymied the Lions’ attack. It was a very impressive bounce-back performance after the Edmonton debacle and a very good sign that maybe Winnipeg has what it takes to be a playoff team this season after a horrific 3-15 season a year ago.

Edmonton Eskimos (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) 
Edmonton should probably be 5-0. The Eskimos outplayed the Calgary Stampeders in last week’s first place West Division showdown but bad coaching decisions from Chris Jones and multiple woeful special teams’ errors cost them the game. There is a reason why people say there are three phases in football: offense, defense, and special teams. Often the latter is overlooked but make no mistake about it – special teams won’t be overlooked by Edmonton after this game! The Eskimos allowed a blocked punt return for a touchdown and inexplicably ran a fake punt from their own end zone on thirddown at the end of the first half and came up a yard short which gave Calgary the football with less than 30 seconds left in the half inside the Edmonton 20-yard line. Naturally, Calgary scored on the very next play. The final score wound up being 26-22 so you take away both of those Edmonton mistakes on special teams and it could have been a 22-12 win. Now they must try to put their first loss of the season behind them. Edmonton is on its bye this week and will resume play gainst Montreal.

Calgary Stampeders (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) 
It wasn’t pretty but the Calgary Stampeders somehow got the better of the Edmonton Eskimos. As mentioned they got two giftwrapped touchdowns which was the difference in the game. The defense played well enough but for a second straight week the offense looked bogged down with quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell is an impressive 7-0 as a starter with Calgary but a lot of those wins were not his doing. They also have been winning without running back Jon Cornish and wide receiver Maurice Price. The reason is Calgary’s stellar defense coupled with one of the league’s top special teams units. Let’s see if this continues despite lacking two key offensive players when they host BC on Friday night. 

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) 
Saskatchewan made it three straight ATS wins for teams off their bye week when they trounced the Toronto Argos 37-9 as 6-point home chalk. The Roughriders got off to a perfect start by picking off Ricky Ray and caching in on a touchdown. They then forced a fumble on Toronto’s next drive and punched in another touchdown. It was 14-0 before you could blink and Saskatchewan never looked back. Their defense totally blew up the line of scrimmage on a feeble Argos offensive front. Saskatchewan’s own offense was much better this week and the insertion of new running Will Ford (3 TDs). The ability to run the football successfully took a lot of pressure off quarterback Darian Durant who was very good in the passing game. It was a circle-the-wagons game for Saskatchewan coming off back-to-back losses and a bye week and it played out that way.

BC Lions (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) 
I don’t want to discredit Winnipeg’s big road win at BC too much but to me, the Lions just didn’t show up. You got the sense that BC was a little fat and happy after easy back-to-back wins over Saskatchewan and Montreal. Against Winnipeg we witnessed all the signs of a team lacking focus with turnovers, undisciplined penalties, and out of sync play on both sides of the football. Quarterback Kevin Glenn reverted back to his form by throwing a pair of costly picks. Things got so bad for BC’s offense that Glenn was benched for a pair of drives in the third quarter. Things weren’t any better with former NFL signal caller John Beck under center so Glenn came back in but by that time the game was out of reach. Winnipeg played well and BC didn’t but it was evident that the Lions had no semblance of focus and intensity for that game. It will be interesting to see if they regain their edge this week as they head to Calgary against the undefeated 4-0 Stampeders.

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




PAC-12 Betting Preview Podcast with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Brent Crow

07.29.2014     12:24 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Brent Crow. Rob, Brent, and host Andrew Lange broke down the entire PAC-12 conference from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Rob Veno - PAC-12 North Preview

Brent Crow - PAC-12 South Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football PAC-12 Rob Veno Brent Crow




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

07.29.2014     10:22 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hamels) -120 at NY Mets (Gee) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Philadelphia


The Philadelphia Phillies take the field tonight against one hottest home teams in baseball at the New York Mets have won eight of their last nine games at Citi Field. But despite their recent success and hot bats they have a lot to overcome tonight against Cole Hamels. Hamels and has been one of the lone the bright points for Philadelphia in what has become a year to forget.  He hasn't allowed more than three runs in his last 11 starts, posting a sparkling 1.74 ERA during that stretch.  The Mets will also have to overcome the lackluster performances starting pitcher Dillon Gee has been putting together.  Gee was absolutely shelled against the Brewers in his last outing, giving up six hits, two walks, and six earned runs over just five innings.  The start prior to that he allowed four earned runs in pitcher friendly Petco Park. One has to wonder if Gee is pitching at 100% after coming back from an injury that put him on the shelf for two months.  I'm not sold on the Mets being able to continue their offensive outburst, especially against Hamels which makes tonight’s price worthy of a wager. 

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets Sammy P




NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Kansas City Over 7.5 wins

07.29.2014     07:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released this afternoon. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.


20* Big Ticket: Kansas City OVER 7.5 Wins

The Chiefs are the poster child for the ‘expected to be the most improved team in the NFL’ category.  Quite literally, just about every statistic and metric that we have to predict NFL success or failure points towards an immediate turnaround in Kansas City this fall.  And when we start to break down the offseason moves for KC, the case for dramatic improvement is perfectly clear.

It all starts with last year, when KC was an injury riddled mess with a lame duck head coach and a consistent void at the quarterback position.  The Chiefs were tied dead last in the NFL in turnover margin in 2012, finishing with an average of -1.5 turnover differential per game.  Only five players started all 16 games; fewer than the number of players who finished the season on injured reserve. 

Chiefs QB’s Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn combined for a 63.8 QB rating and eight touchdown passes between them, truly bottom tier numbers.  Their defense managed to snare only seven interceptions all season.  But unlike fellow bottom feeders Jacksonville and Oakland, KC has drafted reasonably well; not a team in need of an Extreme Makeover, NFL style.  They’ve got playmaking personnel already in place on both sides of the football.

The endless barrage of turnovers last year is certainly a factor pointing towards significant improvement in 2013.  Even teams with ongoing quarterback issues tend to dramatically improve their turnover ratio following an ‘off the charts’ bad season like the one Kansas City had last year.   And KC doesn’t have any sort of QB controversy heading into 2013 after acquiring former 49ers starter and former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith to man the position.

Smith’s career has been checkered, but he was an elite, efficient quarterback last year before the sudden emergence of Colin Kaepernick made him expendable in San Francisco.  In fact, his 104.1 QB rating ranked behind only Peyton Manning and Aaron Rogers, and his 70.2% completion rate was tops in the league.  He’s no Matt Cassel or Brady Quinn; a proven winner in this league.

All the quotes out of Kansas City indicate that the team is jelling in offseason workouts under Smith’s leadership.  Here’s a quote from star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe:  "He's a leader on and off the field. He's putting pressure on the defense. He's running the huddle. When we don't have a huddle, he's speeding guys up and the tempo gets us in better shape. He's pushing the defense, so that's going to make our team better."

QB isn’t the only key area that got a dramatic upgrade in the offseason.  For as much as Eagles fans loved to bash Andy Reid, the bottom line is that Reid was a consistent winner throughout his extended tenure in Philadelphia.  He had only three losing seasons in 14 years in Philly, with a 130-93-1 career record. 

Romeo Crennel, in stints with Cleveland and KC, could never possibly be described as a ‘consistent winner’; 28-55 all time as a head coach.  The team clearly quit on him relatively early last year, and the transition to a proven winner like Reid can only help.

All reports out of KC this offseason have indicated that players are buying into Reid’s message.  The Chiefs longest tenured veteran and clear team leader, Derrick Johnson, had this to say following OTA’s:  "You never look at it as a rebuilding year; that's college talk. You always reload. Even though we didn't win a lot of games last year, this team has some good core players that we can reload with, plus some new guys like Alex Smith that can help us win. We have high expectations. Andy Reid has already made it plain to us that if you are playing for anything else but a championship, you are not doing justice to the game."

Reid’s quotes sound pretty good too:  "It's the work ethic right now, guys trying to get better. There are a lot of little things that determine whether you're going to be an average team or a good team and are you going to be fundamentally sound against all the different looks, whether you're on the defensive or offensive side, so you've got to spend time at it. It's not good enough just to learn the play. Let's learn it inside and out. Let's learn all the leverage positions you need to be in. The guys are doing that, they're working at it.

"Those little things -- that's what counts. But normally those are the things that the players will back away from. 'OK, I've got the route, but what are the intricacies of that route? I've got the coverage, but exactly how does that tie in with my linebacker or safety or whatever it might be? They're concentrating on that and they're working on that very well. From a coaching standpoint, that's all you can ask for."

They’ve got talented personnel in place.  They’ve made dramatic QB and head coaching upgrades, and all reports indicate the transition is going well.  KC also improved their personnel on the offensive line and in the secondary.  Their turnover margin can only improve.  Their division is among the weakest in the NFL, and their schedule for 2013 features ten teams lined at eight wins or less.   In fact, they won’t be underdogs of more than a field goal in any of their nine games before the bye week – I expect some early positive momentum for this team.  KC doesn’t need to make the playoffs to cash our ticket – a .500 season does the trick – but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the Chiefs are the ‘surprise’ team in the NFL right from the get-go this year.



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




Don't Wait For Brent Crow NFL Preseason!

07.10.2014     10:57 AM     Printer Friendly
Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Famed NFL Season O/U Wins Report is here!

07.15.2014     11:26 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_7_15_2014.jpg

Teddy Covers NFL Season O/U Wins Report [68-29 70% lifetime, 10-1 91% 20*s] $199 
With an unprecedented track record dating back well over a decade, Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Wins Report remains a must-have for every kind of football bettor. Over a 13-year span, Teddy's clients have been rewarded with an outstanding 68-29 70% winning mark including an incredible 10-1, 91% with TC's top rated 20* Big Tickets. Last year's 20*, the Kansas City Chiefs Over 7.5, cashed before Halloween! As always, Teddy's recommendations will include detailed written analysis. The first release is just around the corner in late July followed by any additional selections after Week 3 of the preseason. Purchase now and lock in all the plays for the incredibly low price of $199. 


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

07.28.2014     11:14 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Zimmermann) -145 at Miami (Eovaldi) O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Over


Not real sure what has gone wrong with Miami’s Nate Eovaldi but the majority of his starts since mid-June have been disastrous. In the eight outings during this span, Eovaldi has managed to throw just three quality starts. The team has gone 1-7 as Eovaldi (1-4 with 3 no decisions) has posted a 6.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and allowed 89 TB in 48 IP. The most alarming part of his performances is the drastic drop in strikeouts. Of the 209 batters Eovaldi has faced since June 13, he’s fanned only 21 for a near 1:10 ratio. All the contact being made by opposing lineups has led to the poor results but with Eovaldi still routinely hitting 95 MPH on the gun, velocity can’t be blamed. Inability to locate inside the strike zone could be problematic tonight against Washington which has averaged 4.5 runs per game since the All-Star break. Not having Ryan Zimmerman (15 day DL, hamstring) is a blow to the Nationals offense but they were able to produce four runs two of the last three days versus strong Cincinnati pitching. Washington starter Jordan Zimmermann blames poor location, not a biceps injury suffered earlier this month for his short outing against Colorado last week. His last couple of starts have lasted less than six innings and Miami’s home offense has been extremely solid this season which could make this a tough start. The total is in a spot here that dictates taking a shot on the over. It’s likely that one of these two pitchers in rough current form will get hit hard enough to keep the scoreboard churning so the play here is over 7.5 +1.05.  

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Miami Marlins Rob Veno




Sports Betting Podcast 7-28-2014 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

07.28.2014     11:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down tonight's MLB card while Teddy talked NFC North.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Rob Veno - MLB Night Games

Teddy Covers - NFC North Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB NFL Rob Veno Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.”

Four of those seven took their teams to the playoffs last year.  But Eli Manning suffered through a truly horrific season, arguably costing his team any shot at the playoffs with his league leading interception total.  Ben Roethlisberger certainly wasn’t very good when the Steelers got off to their 2-6 start that eventually doomed their playoff chances.   And Joe Flacco took his 11-0 TD-INT ratio from the Ravens remarkable playoff run and proceeded to throw 22 interceptions compared to only 19 touchdowns in the regular season last year.  Did those three veteran quarterbacks suddenly get dramatically worse?

Of course not!  The talent surrounding them got dramatically worse, and those three took the blame (and the statistical beating).  Look at Baltimore for a prime example.  They lost tight end Dennis Pitta for most of the year due to injuries and lost Anquan Bolden in free agency, two of their top three pass catchers on the 2012 team that won the Super Bowl.  Their offensive line – great during their Super Bowl run – was downright lousy for extended stretches last year – hence Ray Rice’s dramatic decline.   Flacco ranked second in the NFL in sacks taken with 48 – only Ryan Tannehill behind the Dolphins disastrous OL took more.  And on a yards per rush basis, the Ravens running game ranked dead last in the NFL last year; another clear indicator of offensive line weakness

Flacco’s QBR (ESPN’s advanced metric QB rating) in the 2013 regular season was nearly the same as it was in the 2012 regular season  – below average, ranked in between Ryan Tannehill and Sam Bradford in 2013; between Carson Palmer with the Raiders and Ryan Fitzpatrick with the Bills in 2012.   Super Bowl ring or not, Flacco cannot be mentioned in the same breath with the other six Super Bowl winners on the list above.  And that’s one of the reasons why Baltimore is lined as an 8.5 win team this year, not a 9 or 9.5 win team.

Despite his two Super Bowl rings (both coming in large part via the Giants defense and multiple miracle drives in the final minutes of playoff games), I’m not convinced Eli Manning can be ranked with the other elites either.  That certainly doesn’t make him a bum.  Prior to last year, Eli had a QBR above 60 in each of the five previous seasons, but his 18-27 TD-INT ratio last year ensured he wouldn’t enjoy a sixth consecutive year with a lofty rating – it plummeted to 36.5. Why did Eli decline?  The same reason as Flacco did!

The Giants offensive line was an injury riddled mess last year.  Like Baltimore, the G-men had no discernable running game, tied for 29th in the NFL in yards per rush.  In their Super Bowl winning season back in 2011 as well as in 2012, the Giants got solid production from their tight ends and slot receivers.  Last year, neither Victor Cruz nor Hakeem Nicks were fully healthy and the Giants got very little from the tight end position.  And that explains Eli’s decline more than any other factors.  The QB gets the blame when things go bad, whether it’s his fault or not.

What about Big Ben, the third QB from the above list who didn’t lead his team to the playoffs last year?  Same story?  You betcha!  Pittsburgh’s offensive line, despite a bevy of high draft choices manning unit, was nothing short of awful in 2013.  The Steelers, too, couldn’t run the football, tied with the Giants for 29th in the NFL, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. 

Pittsburgh, too, lost key elements from their receiving corps form the year before, with Mike Wallace bolting for Miami in free agency while Heath Miller battled injuries.

Despite how tough Big Ben is to get to the ground, he still finished ranked #7 in the NFL in most sacks taken.  Prior to last season, Roethlisberger had put together four straight years with QBR’s above 60, but last year with declining talent around him, it dropped to 54.3. 

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees all ranked among the elites statistically again last year, with Brady’s QBR the weakest of the bunch; ranked #10 among full time starters.  Of course, that’s explainable too, given the Patriots opening the season without their top five pass catchers from 2012.  All four of those ultra-elite QB’s have stable situations on the offensive line and amongst their receivers heading into 2014 – at least heading into training camp, before the injuries start to strike.

That being said, Peyton Manning had an 82.9 QBR last year.  The only season in his career with a better QBR than that came back in 2006, the same season that he earned his lone Super Bowl ring. Peyton’s QB rating was nearly 20 points higher than his career average.   Will he feel the loss of second leading receiver Eric Decker?  Will he succumb to the curse of the Super Bowl loser? Will he finally get old; on the wrong side of his 38th birthday? 

I think it’s safe to say that Peyton certainly can’t improve on last year’s numbers – at least a modest decline is likely.  And that’s one of the primary reasons why I wouldn’t even consider betting the Broncos Over their 11 or 11.5 season win total – there’s no upside at the QB position.  Well, that and the fact that I’ve never bet a football team (NFL or college) over 11.5 wins in my career as a sportsbettor; especially a team that plays a schedule as tough as the Broncos do this year.

An elite level QB goes a long, long way into turning a mediocre team into a good one or a good team into a great one.  Which quarterbacks could be primed to join the elites listed above in 2014?  I’ll have an answer for you in Part 2 of this article next week; a space that I wrote about Russell Wilson last year.

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Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part II

07.28.2014     06:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2013 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple – getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in a strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2014.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2014 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google “2014 NFL Strength of Schedule” and you’ll find countless charts exactly like the one below…

2014 NFL Strength of Schedule (Generic)
Rank
Team
Opponent Win Pct.
1
Oakland Raiders
0.578
2
Denver Broncos
0.570
3
St. Louis Rams
0.564
4
San Diego Chargers
0.563
4
San Francisco 49ers
0.563
6
Seattle Seahawks
0.561
7
Kansas City Chiefs
0.559
8
Arizona Cardinals
0.547
9
New York Jets
0.520
10
New England Patriots
0.516
11
Atlanta Falcons
0.512
12
Miami Dolphins
0.508
13
Green Bay Packers
0.504
14
Buffalo Bills
0.500
15
Chicago Bears
0.496
16
Detroit Lions
0.492
17
Washington Redskins
0.490
18
Dallas Cowboys
0.488
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0.484
20
Philadelphia Eagles
0.479
21
Minnesota Vikings
0.477
22
Carolina Panthers
0.473
23
Cincinnati Bengals
0.469
23
New Orleans Saints
0.469
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
0.469
26
Cleveland Browns
0.465
26
New York Giants
0.465
28
Baltimore Ravens
0.461
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
0.453
30
Houston Texans
0.441
31
Tennessee Titans
0.438
32
Indianapolis Colts
0.430


The standard mainstream formula is simple: Take every opponent’s wins from last year and every opponent’s losses, add them up and voila, you’ve got numbers showing that the four teams from the AFC South face the four easiest schedules in the NFL with the AFC North teams not far behind.  On the hard side, it’s all about the teams out West, with the eight toughest schedules coming from AFC West and NFC West teams.

The good news for us is that this information is widely available and quoted everywhere.  The oddsmakers use this information when setting their season Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season.  In addition, much of the betting marketplace relies on these numbers when making their own wagers. 

This is good news for us because the win-loss record of last year’s teams means very little in reality when it comes to projecting three things.  First, how good those teams actually were to earn those varying records.  Second, how tough a schedule those teams faced to earn that win-loss record.  And third, how good those teams will actually be in 2014, as opposed to how good they were last year.

I’ve already focused on how tough a schedule every team faced to earn their record from 2013.  Now the focus shifts towards how good their opponents actually are supposed to be this year!  Again, the concept is simple and makes perfect sense, but it requires a fair bit of work to execute. 

The wiseguy or advanced metric methodology is not based on last year’s, win-loss records.  Rather, they’re based on the projected strength and weaknesses of each team in 2014, based on THIS YEAR’s current Over/Under win totals as set by the betting marketplace. The current juice (vig) is factored into the equation as well, using the standard wiseguy formula of 50 cents of juice equating to approximately half of a win. 

An end-of-the-season analysis, year after year, will show that trying to use the mainstream numbers for any type of serious betting is an exercise in futility – they’re consistently wrong, from top to bottom. Look at last year for some clear illustrations of why this formula is so flawed.  Coming into 2013, the mainstream formula said that the Carolina Panthers would face the toughest schedule in the league, with Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis, Baltimore and Green Bay not far behind.  On the easy end of the spectrum were the Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs, Texans and Bills.

When we looked at the actual results at the end of the season, we saw a completely different picture than those mainstream projections.  The toughest slates in the NFL were faced by St. Louis, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, Denver and Indy.  The mainstream formula got the Broncos and Colts laughably wrong and didn’t come close on three of the other five.

Meanwhile, Detroit, Baltimore and Green Bay faced three of the easiest schedules in the league (not the hardest, as projected) along with KC, Oakland and Philly.  The mainstream method got only one right on this side of the equation; the type of numbers that can legitimately hurt bettors who take them seriously.

Bettors who concentrated on 2013 strength of schedule numbers based on season win totals – the formula I’m touting here – had a much better chance to accurately predict how tough or weak any team’s schedule was going to be.   For example, Minnesota, Washington and Baltimore (all of whom went Under their season win totals) were the first three teams I discussed in this space last year as facing ‘tougher than projected’ slates. 
So, what do the advanced metric numbers show for 2014?  The toughest schedules aren’t just concentrated in two divisions (AFC West and NFC West) like they are with the mainstream formula.  My numbers show that Oakland, Arizona, Carolina and Minnesota face the four toughest slates. 

On the easy end of the spectrum, again, it’s not just about two divisions (AFC South and AFC North) like the mainstream formula shows.  Yes, Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland and Pittsburgh rank among the easiest, but Cinci faces an above average SOS and Jacksonville’s is the toughest in their division (because, obviously, they don’t face themselves twice). Other notable easier than average slates include New England and Washington, neither of whom merits attention in that regard from any mainstream formula.

Developing accurate strength of schedule numbers for the upcoming campaign is no easy task, but these wiseguy numbers are absolutely essential when it comes to accurately predicting final regular season records.  Bettors who do their homework in this area have a legitimate edge over bettors who don’t.

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Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

07.26.2014     09:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Washington (Gonzalez) +105 at Cincinnati (Cueto) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Washington
 
 
My clients and I have cashed several winning bets against the Reds during their current 0-7 post-All Star Break slide. Cincinnati remains an overvalued, ice cold ‘bet-against’ squad today, even with ace Johnny Cueto on the hill.  The Reds lineup defines the word ‘anemic’ these days, held to three runs or less in every loss; scoring just 13 runs overall during this seven game skid. With Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto on the DL, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround either.

The advanced metric stats clearly show that Cueto is due for some regression.  His .228 BABIP (batting average allowed on balls in play) is simply unsustainable; hence his FIP that’s a full run higher than his ERA.  Cueto has suffered through high pitch counts in each of his last two starts, needing 112 pitches to last through five innings of work against the Yankees in his last outing. The Reds bullpen behind him ranks #25 in MLB in team ERA this year.

That stands in sharp contrast to the Nationals relief corps, currently sitting with the third best bullpen ERA in the majors.  And Gio Gonzalez is primed for a strong bounceback effort today after getting lit up by the Brewers in his last outing.  His quote? “It's one of those games where you have to brush under the rug.  Nine days off, it didn't help."  Gonzalez has dominated this Cincinnati lineup before, with a 1.00 ERA and 32 strikeouts in just 27 innings of work against them over four starts.

Reds manager Brian Price makes a strong bet-against case for his squad as well.  “It's just really a mental game. When we were going good before the break, nobody was pressing. Now, everybody's pressing."

Washington comes into this one with great momentum and positive team chemistry despite Ryan Zimmerman heading on the DL.  The Nationals have taken over first place in the NL East with 15 wins in their last 21 games including seven of their last nine; plating 52 runs (almost six per game) during that span.  Ride the hot and fade the cold with the Nationals in afternoon action on Saturday. 


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

07.25.2014     10:18 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Hammel) -170 at Texas (Williams) O/U 9.5 
Recommendation: Over
 
 
Not so sure A’s RH starter Jason Hammel’s return to the American League will be as good of a thing as the club may have thought it would be. Hammel’s initial start as an AL pitcher versus an AL club (albeit one that knew him) was a disaster as Baltimore lit him up for five runs and six hits in two innings. Hammel needed 58 pitches to get through that pair of innings and despite facing the drastically different Texas lineup tonight, the feeling here is he’ll have difficulties again. Even deeper than the switch back to facing nine hitter AL offenses, the last couple of starts by Hammel hint that a regression is taking place. Combined over his last two outings, he’s posted these numbers: 7 IP / 12 H / 7 ER / 5 BB-5K / 3HR / 22.43 PPI / 2.43 WHIP / 9.00 ERA. Figure Texas to notch 4+ runs tonight even with their novice laden lineup. Oakland on the other hand should have no problem with the Rangers journeyman fill-in starter Jerome Williams. Williams has struggled this year out of the bullpen going 1-4 with a 6.04 ERA for Houston before Texas picked him up on waivers. Oakland destroys average to below average RH pitching and late July in Arlington is a venue tailor made for their productive offense. Number is high at 9.5 but it shouldn’t be all that difficult for these offenses to get this game up and “over” the total.

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Tags: MLB Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Rob Veno




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Calgary Stampeders @ Edmonton Eskimos

07.24.2014     08:23 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Calgary at Edmonton O/U 49.5

Recommendation: Under

There has already been a 3 point drop in this total which now sits at 49.5 for the most part but I still think we have enough wiggle room to give the Under a small recommendation in this Battle Of Alberta with current possession of 1st place in the West Division at stake between the 3-0 Calgary Stampeders and the 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos--a game that can be seen live on ESPN2 tonight. The defenses have led the way and have been dominant for both teams this season and I see no reason for that to change tonight. Calgary has yielded just 30 points in their first three games combined which equates to a 10 points per game average which is extraordinary while Edmonton has given up 58 points in their first four games for a very impressive 14.5 points per game average of their own. Both teams are capable of playing blanket coverage down the field in the secondary as well as over the middle and they can both stop the run. Calgary and Edmonton are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in points allowed and rushing yards allowed in the CFL. The Stampeders and Eskimos are a combined 7-0 to the Under this season and 6 of those 7 games had fewer points scored than the current total of 49.5 for this game. With this being such an important game, I expect it to be played very tight to the vest on both sides and look for this game to stay Under the total.

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Tags: CFL Calgary Stampeders Edmonton Eskimos Ian Cameron




CFL Week 4 Betting News and Notes

07.23.2014     07:33 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my CFL Week 4 News & Notes as I take a look at each team in the CFL providing observations, analysis and a glimpse into what is to come for all 9 CFL teams following Week 4. 
 
Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

The frustrations were clearly evident with the Argos after their painful 18-17 loss to the expansion Ottawa Redblacks in what was Ottawa’s first home game since rejoining the CFL this season. Toronto finally got a strong performance from their rebuilt defense but oddly enough it was QB Ricky Ray and the offense (the supposed strongest part of the team) that simply couldn’t get anything going as they sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers and penalties throughout the game. It was a game that was there for the taking for Toronto but they just couldn’t make any key plays to turn it into a win. Now they sit at 1-3 after wasting a great performance from the defense and now must face the well-rested and likely angry Saskatchewan Roughriders who are coming off their bye and it’s worth noting Saskatchewan lost their game before the bye to this very Argos team in Toronto 48-15 back in Week 2. Toronto will need to find step up contributors on offense particularly from their injury decimated receiving corps if they hope to go into Regina and emerge victorious this week.

Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Some things never change including Montreal’s inability to be competitive in BC. The Alouettes were once again shellacked by the Lions in Vancouver this past week in a 41-5 loss making them 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 games played in BC since 2011 while being outscored to the whopping tune of 163-30! Montreal’s offense was coming off their best performance of the season by far in Week 3 despite a tough 34-33 loss to Winnipeg but this game was a big step backward for Montreal’s offense and QB Troy Smith who was beyond terrible completing just 5-for-17 passing and 45 yards. He was replaced in the 4th Qtr by Tanner Marsh when the game was already way out of hand. The offense was shut completely down as Smith never got any sort of rhythm going in the passing game nor could they effectively run the football with Brandon Whitaker. The defense didn’t play all that great either but they did their best to keep Montreal in the game for as long as possible but quite simply the Alouettes did not move the football at all and went right back to the struggles of the first two weeks. The questions about having a new QB, reshuffled offensive line and a first time coordinator will all start being asked once again as Montreal goes into their bye week here in Week 4.

Ottawa Redblacks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Ottawa reached down and pulled out a hard fought victory in their first home game as a franchise at the brand new TD Place. The defense remains the team’s strength as I figured it would be with head coach Rick Campbell’s defensive background shining through. They held down a very good QB in Ricky Ray albeit with Toronto missing arguably their three top receivers but there are concerns on the offensive side of the football as QB Henry Burris and the Redblacks managed to win without scoring a single TD. They got away with being unable to finish drives last week but it may not be quite as easy on the road this week even against a winless Hamilton squad.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats have managed to be profitable with a 2-1 ATS record through three games despite not having won yet. Hamilton played well enough to win in Calgary last week as their defense rose to the occasion and shut down the Stampeders but their own offense along with turnovers and a costly bad hold on a FG attempt which could have tied the game late all came back to haunt Hamilton. I still believe this team has the capability of being the Grey Cup contender we thought they would be entering the season but the offense simply must get better and it all starts with the offensive line a) getting healthier and b) playing much better. At this point it doesn’t matter who is at QB between injured #1 Zach Collaros or his backups Dan LeFevour or Jeremiah Masoli, the bottom line is the Ticats offensive line is not good enough at this point and must improve for Hamilton to start winning games. Collaros has already been ruled out for this Saturday’s “home opener” against Ottawa which has been moved to the McMaster University campus stadium in Hamilton due to the fact the brand new Tim Hortons Field is not quite ready to host a game. It will be either Dan LeFevour or Jeremiah Masoli at QB on Saturday but after Masoli’s struggles with accuracy last week in Calgary, my $$ would have to be on LeFevour getting the call at QB this week for Hamilton.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The early season joy about an unexpected 3-0 start came to a crashing halt last week for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as they were soundly dominated from start to finish by the Edmonton Eskimos in a 26-3 home loss. For the first time this season, Winnipeg’s offense was ineffective as QB Drew Willy had his worst game of the season completing less than 50% of his passes without a single TD and he also threw a costly pick six early in the game. The Edmonton defensive front was way too powerful for Winnipeg to handle as Willy didn’t have much time to get rid of the football throughout the game. RB Nic Grigsby was also held in check by that same dominating Edmonton defense as he was kept to just 50 yards rushing. Winnipeg’s defense played well to start the game but Edmonton eventually got their offense going and were able to wear down a tired Blue Bombers defense late. Winnipeg heads to BC to face a Lions team that has won back-to-back games in impressive fashion and will be good evidence whether or not the Blue Bombers have staying power to compete in the very tough West Division or if they were playing a little bit over their heads to get to that 3-0 start.

Edmonton Eskimos (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Calgary is tied with Edmonton for 1st place in the West and overall but Edmonton is the only team entering Week 5 with an unblemished 4-0 ATS mark from a pointspread perspective. The Eskimos have been the early season surprise story I thought they could be but I never expected them to be this good, this soon. Edmonton’s defense certainly has been the best in the CFL with all due respect to Calgary which also has played extremely well defensively so far. The Eskimos are doing it with a focused, intense, winning attitude exuded by first year head coach Chris Jones and the defense is leading the way for them by playing ferocious along the defensive line in terms of both stopping the run and getting pressure on opposing QB’s as well as a secondary that has been locking down some of the better receivers in coverage down the field. There is probably still room for improvement with Edmonton’s offense as QB Mike Reilly still needs to work on his deep ball accuracy but his short to intermediate throws have been on target and the ground game has really improved the last 2 weeks since John White (who played his College Football at Utah) took over as the starting RB. Edmonton faces provincial rival Calgary in a showdown of unbeaten teams in the West on Thursday night in a game that should give the Eskimos another chance to show just how much they have improved.

Calgary Stampeders (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

It wasn’t pretty but the Calgary Stampeders got the job done squeaking out an ugly 10-7 home win against Hamilton last week. The Calgary offense didn’t look out of place in their 34-15 win against Toronto despite being without a handful of key offensive weapons including RB Jon Cornish and that could have been a product of getting to prepare for that game after a bye but the offense struggled like most expected they would without their workhorse RB against Hamilton. QB Bo Levi Mitchell never really got anything going in the passing game and Calgary’s offense really was made up of a couple key 1st down throws and their TD came on a gadget play that ended in a Brad Sinopoli TD run. The defense was the difference though and held their 3rd straight opponent to 15 points or less getting another phenomenal game from their stop unit. The Stamps are hoping to get some bodies back to that depleted offense for their 1st place showdown against the Eskimos on Thursday night and they will need an offense at much better strength this week if they hope to go on the road and knock off the red hot Edmonton Eskimos.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Saskatchewan had their bye last week so we won’t go into detail discussing them but it will be interesting to see if the Roughriders can build on B2B pointspread covers for teams coming off a bye week when they host the Toronto Argonauts here in Week 5 laying nearly a TD in that contest. The problem might be they entered the bye out of sync on both sides of the football and will need to prove they can get things together on both offense and defense.

BC Lions (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

The BC Lions are starting to look like the West Division and Grey Cup contenders we expected them to be prior to the season especially with Vancouver hosting this year’s Grey Cup game in November. We’ve seen their offense really come to life with the resurgence of QB Kevin Glenn and RB Andrew Harris plus the return of their best WR Emmanuel Arceneaux from injury. The Lions defense has also been tremendous in their two straight wins getting consistent pressure up front along the defensive line and have also done a good job stopping the run. BC has knocked off Saskatchewan on the road and Montreal at home in B2B games by a combined score of 67-18 and they have their swagger back as they prepare to host Winnipeg this week.

Follow me on Twitter @bobano  




 

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners

07.22.2014     09:02 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (DeGrom) at Seattle (Ramirez) -110 O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Seattle


The Seattle Mariners got the job last night against the NY Mets in a 5-2 win. The score wasn't indicative of the game as the Mariners hit the ball all over the park on Mets starter Jon Niese and deserved to put up more runs.  Seattle has been able to hang around the wildcard playoff race with a 53-46 record.  Playing in the difficult AL West has been a challenge, but the starting pitching has been Seattle's saving grace.  The Mariners have Erasmo Ramirez on the mound tonight as they look to rest over worked starters Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma another day.  Ramirez hasn't had the prettiest of starts this season, but he has turned the corner as of late giving up just two earned runs in his last four starts.  Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets tonight and this young starter has been impressive at times.  The Mets just don't have the bats to take advantage of a weaker starter being plugged into the rotation here.  New York has now lost three straight games and they've scored just 3 runs in those losses.  Seattle is getting a very cheap price here at home.  Back the better team at home tonight.

Tags: MLB New York Mets Seattle Mariners Sammy P




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so. 
  
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox and Braves in September or the Rangers last year) or riding teams that are playing far better baseball than their full season stats would indicate.

The latter of the two is the case here.  Tampa Bay isn’t playing like a last place team that’s six games under .500.  Rather, the Rays have won five straight and 16 of their last 21 with a lineup that’s finally hitting and a pitching staff that is shutting everybody down (only six runs allowed in Minnesota over the weekend).

The Rays are catching Adam Wainwright off-rhythm following his All Star Game appearance when he “grooved one” to Derek Jeter and gave up three runs in an inning. Wainwright hasn’t really been stretched out in ten days.  And it’s surely worth noting that key Tampa bats James Loney, Evan Longoria, Jose Molina and Ben Zobrist all have hit .333 or better against Wainwright in their careers, a combined 17-39 (.435).

The Cardinals are not a very good hitting team and Jake Odorizzi has, very quietly, allowed only eleven runs in his last seven starts; dominating repeatedly, with advanced metric stats that show his current form is not entirely flukish.  That makes the Rays a clear choice for me at this attractive underdog price.

Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

07.19.2014     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle (Hernandez) at LA Angels (Richards) -105 O/U 6.5 
Recommendation: Under


Expecting a playoff atmosphere is Anaheim tonight with the Mariners and Angels sending their two respective aces to the hill. Back in early May, Felix Hernandez had one of their weirdest outings of his career where he failed to record a strikeout in a 6.1 inning outing against Oakland. Since then, he's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.77 ERA and incredible 101-13 K-to-BB ratio over 12 starts. In two games vs. the Angels this season, the King has been dominant with only three earned runs and 20 strikeouts in 14.2 IP. Garrett Richards may be new to the "elite scene" but his stuff is as good as anyone in baseball. He too has been dialed in with a stellar 1.27 ERA over his last eight outings. Richards is on pace for a 200-inning season so there's slight concern for some sort of swoon or dead arm period but he's been able to maintain his velocity and comes into tonight's game off extended rest thanks to the All-Star break. Marathon 16-inning affair last night with both bullpens worked but out of the break the top relief arms should be good to go if need be. Expect a 3-2, 4-2 type game as we come in on the UNDER.

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Andrew Lange




Football Betting Podcast 7-18-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

07.18.2014     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy preview the NFC South while Erin and host Andrew Lange talked Big Ten West.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Teddy Covers - NFC South Preview

Erin Rynning - Big Ten West Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL College Football Big Ten Teddy Covers Erin Rynning







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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 31, 2014 04:39 PM.