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College Football Handicapping: Week 5 early line moves

09.22.2014     01:59 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at some of the early moves in the Week 5 college football betting markets.

Maryland at Indiana 
CRIS Opener: Indiana -2.5 
CRIS Current: Indiana -4 
Comment: Renewed faith in the Hoosiers after bouncing back from loss to Bowling Green with upset win at Missouri. Even more impressive of a line move with Maryland dominating Syracuse.

UTEP at Kansas State 
CRIS Opener: Kansas State -30 
CRIS Current: Kansas State -26.5 
Comment: Miners off a bye week and look much improved in 2-1 start. Conference game on deck for K-State.

Bowling Green at UMass 
CRIS Opener: Bowling Green -10.5 
CRIS Current: Bowling Green -8.5 
Comment: Perhaps a step down in class for UMass after four straight vs. power conference foes two of which were 3-point losses. Falcons allowed 644 yards on the ground in loss to Wisky.

North Carolina at Clemson 
CRIS Opener: Clemson -12.5 
CRIS Current: Clemson -14 
Comment: Tar Heels off 70-41 beatdown vs. ECU. Tigers finally get one at home after playing UGA and FSU on the highway.

Memphis at Ole Miss 
CRIS Opener: Ole Miss -21 
CRIS Current: Ole Miss -18 
Comment: Huge move proved to be the right move as market love affair with Memphis pays off after Tigers hammer MTSU. Rebels off bye week but home game vs. Alabama on deck.

Boise State at Air Force 
CRIS Opener: Boise State -14 
CRIS Current: Boise State -12.5 
Comment: Boise 3-0 SU/ATS since losing opener vs. Ole Miss. Falcons come in off of bye. Broncos won last year's meeting 42-20 on Smurf Turf.

Nevada at San Jose State 
CRIS Opener: Nevada -2.5 
CRIS Current: Nevada -4.5 
Comment: Nevada off of bye week and near win at Arizona.

Tags: College Football

NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public likes Bears and OVER

09.22.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for tonight's  Monday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets courtesy of Bookmaker. The game opened a pick 'em but the Jets were bet up to 3-point favorites. Those all got taken out as the Jets now sit -1/-1.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

59.0% - CHICAGO +1

71.1% - OVER 45

74.9% - CHICAGO -101

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears New York Jets

College Football Gambling: Northwestern offense stuck in neutral

09.22.2014     02:38 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Bettors should keep an eye on Northwestern quarterback Trevor Siemian who has been dealing with an ankle injury that clearly impacted his play in last week's lackluster 24-7 win over Western Illinois. Siemian completed 15-of-25 passes for only 177 yards (4.7 ypa). This week's opponent, Penn State currently ranks 10th nationally in total defense (270.8 ypg allowed).

“He’s coming off an ankle injury. He didn’t drive off his back foot. He was lazy with his feet, and he didn’t drive the ball. I’m proud of him for being out there. The reason why he played is he needed to be out there," Fitzgerald said. "We don’t have rhythm and timing right now as a skill group. Conventional wisdom would say, ‘Sit him down, you’re playing an FCS team.’ Well that’s why convention is convention and reality is reality. If we’re clicking and scoring 500 points a game, maybe that’s what we do. But we’re not in rhythm, and we’re not doing what we need to do."


Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Penn State Nittany Lions Big Ten

NFL Handicapping: Dolphins upset with DC following loss to Chiefs

09.22.2014     11:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Following Sunday's 34-15 loss to Kansas City, reports have surfaced that Miami players are "beyond furious" with defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards and Alex Smith hit on 19-of-25 passes. The Dolphins rank third in the league at 4.6 yards per play allowed.

“We talked about it tonight,” Philbin said. “We’ve got to determine what we’re going to do. We’ve got to back to work, we’ve got to go across the Atlantic Ocean, and we’re going to have to play a lot better.

“We’re not playing well enough over the last two weeks to win a football game in the National Football League. It’s hard to say, but that’s the facts.”

Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus plays crush Week 3

09.22.2014     11:44 AM     Printer Friendly


Nice week for the SuperContest's top consensus plays. Washington, Indianapolis, New York Giants, Cincinnati, and Dallas were all winners. The lone loser was Buffalo. Note that the Cowboys and Bills had the same amount of selections therefore there's an extra play in the YTD record which now stands at 10-6 ATS.

Weekly Results 
Week 3: 5-1 
Week 2: 3-2  
Week 1: 2-3 
Total: 10-6 ATS

NFL Gambling: Redskins sans Griffin III earn SuperContest top pick

09.21.2014     07:03 AM     View Original Blog
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 3 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. WASHINGTON +6.5 at Philadelphia 
2. INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 at Jacksonville 
3. NY GIANTS +2 vs. Houston 
4. CINCINNATI -6.5 vs. Tennessee 
5(t). BUFFALO -2.5 vs. San Diego 
5(t). DALLAS -1.5 at St. Louis

Least picked Sunday side: OAKLAND +14 at New England

Tags: NFL

NFL Betting Podcast 9-22-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

09.22.2014     09:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper and Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange talked NFL openers and early line moves for Week 4.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report Week 4

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 5

09.22.2014     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly

Week 5's breakdown of Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines vs. CRIS's current numbers. It's a great tool to spot changes in perception from oddsmakers and the betting markets. Check out the difference between TCU-SMU. Since the summer, the market has adjusted nearly three touchdowns! This week is also a good example of a team's latest performance impacting the line. Clemson had a chance to beat Florida State and North Carolina was destroyed by East Carolina. That line would have been around a touchdown a week ago. How about Arkansas' stock over the last two weeks? Texas A&M has skyrocketed up the polls but following blowout wins over Texas Tech and Northern Illinois, the Razorbacks actually "gained" a point from the GOY price.

2014 College Football CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Week 5
Golden Nugget GOY
CRIS Current
Arizona State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -7
Oklahoma State -14
Oregon State
USC -17
USC -10.5
Michigan -12
Michigan -10
Florida State
NC State
Florida State -30
Florida State -21.5
Notre Dame
Syracuse (E. Rutherford)
Notre Dame -5.5
Notre Dame -14
Ohio State
Ohio State -21
Ohio State -14
North Carolina
Clemson -4
Clemson -13.5
Texas A&M (Arlington)
Texas A&M -11
Texas A&M -10
TCU -10
TCU -30.5
South Carolina
South Carolina -11
South Carolina -5.5

Tags: College Football

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than stellar in Week 1, allowing them to retain some pointspread value.

Cincinnati spent Week 1 struggling in the red zone against Baltimore, settling for six field goal attempts. They blew a two TD lead in the second half before getting bailed out on an AJ Green 77 yard catch and run with less than five minutes remaining to escape with the road victory. The Bengals followed that up with back-2-back home blowouts; now 11-0 SU and ATS in their last eleven regular season home games.

Cincinnati is an interesting case study here. The Bengals have been a playoff team in each of the last three seasons, not a squad coming out of nowhere. But the betting markets had a strong anti-Cinci bias this past offseason. Bettors didn’t like the fact that Marvin Lewis lost both his coordinators to new head coaching jobs (former OC Jay Gruden is now the Redskins head coach, DC Mike Zimmer is now the Vikings head coach). And bettors didn’t care for the long term extension to QB Andy Dalton’s contract either; limiting Cinci’s salary cap flexibility moving forward.

But three weeks have shown that there’s no significant drop-off in Cincinnati this year. In fact, despite a bevy of early season injuries, the Bengals look as good or better on both sides of the football compared to last year. This is not a team that plays on national TV every week, or a team with numerous household names on their roster. They haven’t won a playoff game since beating the Houston Oilers in their first round matchup back in 1990. Most teams that start 3-0 ATS in the NFL are in major danger of immediately becoming an overvalued commodity, but the Bengals Week 4 bye is sure to take some of the steam off their hot start. If Cinci really is a legit Super Bowl contender this year – and I think they are – I’m expecting more pointspread success in the weeks and months to come.

I’ve raised my power rating for the San Diego Chargers following every game they’ve played this young season. Mike McCoy’s team did their supporters a big favor on Monday Night Football in Week 1, blowing a double digit lead in the fourth quarter at Arizona while still hanging on the cover the spread thanks to missed two point conversions on each of the Cardinals last two touchdowns. The markets haven’t viewed Arizona an as upper echelon team. Heck, the Cardinals were three point home underdogs to the struggling 49ers last Sunday despite their 2-0 start; a clear indicator of market disrespect. So San Diego’s blown lead at Arizona sent the markets zigging when they should have been zagging.

San Diego, like Cincinnati, was a playoff team last year, not a squad coming out of nowhere. And like Cincinnati, the offseason betting markets viewed the Chargers as a squad likely to take a step back this year due to a very tough strength of schedule and a defense that was perceived to be suspect. Yet in their last two games, San Diego has notched a double digit ATS win over the defending Super Bowl champs followed by another double digit win in a dreaded ‘West Coast team travelling East for an early start game in a letdown spot’ situation. The markets are still viewing San Diego as a good notch or two below the likes of AFC heavyweights Denver and New England. As long as they continue to price San Diego this way, there should be money to be made supporting the Chargers.

With yet another new head coach installing brand new systems on both sides of the football, and a rookie QB waiting in the wings for starter Brian Hoyer to screw up or get hurt, heavy $$ came against the Cleveland Browns throughout the preseason. The Browns certainly weren’t a popular Week 1 pick as underdogs at Pittsburgh. When Cleveland fell behind 27-3 by halftime in that ballgame, the markets had essentially already written them off; halfway through the first game of the new season!

So when the Browns rallied from that 24 point deficit to tie the game, bettors blamed the Steelers defense. When the Browns pulled the outright upset over the Saints the following week, bettors blamed the fact that the Saints can’t win on the road. And last week, when Browns supporters either won, lost or pushed in their two point home loss to the Ravens (the line bounced between Balt -1 and Balt -2.5 all week), the pundits immediately gave Baltimore credit for pulling out a tough win while dismissing Cleveland after suffering yet another tough loss.

Cleveland is 1-2 SU, not a team that is going to attract attention off a ‘hot start’. They are completely devoid of the type of skill position playmakers that create Sportscenter highlights or win weeks in fantasy football. Their quarterback, Brian Hoyer, is just keeping the seat warm for Johnny Manziel’s eventual ascension into the starting lineup. And they’ve got a bye coming up this week, keeping them even further off the radar. Teams that fit this profile can retain their value long term.

The four 0-fer ATS teams fall into two categories. We’ve got a pair of Super Bowl contenders (Denver and Green Bay) and a pair of bottom feeders (Tampa Bay and Jacksonville) making up this quartet.

I don’t think anything is wrong with the Broncos; a team that suffered two very tough ATS beats in three games. A blowout win over Indy got within a TD late after some Denver prevent defense and a recovered onside kick for the Colts. At -7.5, the Broncos certainly weren’t a wrong side, but they didn’t get the $$. And Denver lost at Seattle in overtime by a touchdown when Peyton Manning never got the ball in his hands in the extra session, another rough one. There’s not much value supporting the defending AFC Champs these days, but I don’t see the Broncos as a clear bet against moving forward.

Green Bay, on the other hand, was a .500 level team last year, plagued by woes on their offensive line and in their secondary. Through three weeks here in 2014, Green Bay has looked like a mediocre squad plagued by woes on their offensive line and in their secondary. Aaron Rodgers remains a truly elite level QB, but right now, the Packers look more like a ‘middle of the pack’ team than a true contender, offering bettors continued value betting against them.

The two 0-fer ATS bottom feeders have also been priced in the wrong range. Jacksonville was the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin last year during their 0-8 start. Few, if any, of their numerous personnel problems appear to be corrected in 2014; a team primed for yet another ugly, losing season. Tampa Bay was projected to be an improved team by the betting markets this past offseason, but the Bucs, like the Jaguars, appear to have major personnel deficiencies all over the field. I’m not in any rush to put my money on teams like Tampa or Jacksonville moving forward, despite the added ‘value’ we’ll be getting to support them following their ugly starts.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

09.21.2014     07:11 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Green Bay at Detroit 
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -1 O/U 52 
CRIS Current: Detroit -2 O/U 53 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit pk 
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Over

This NFC North matchup has all the makings of a shootout with two of the top quarterbacks in the game facing defenses that are middle-of-the-road at best. 

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 535 yards and four touchdowns in two games, with Jordy Nelson emerging as his favorite target. Nelson has 292 yards on 18 receptions with one score as he and Randall Cobb give Rodgers two dynamic weapons in the passing game.

On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford has tossed for 630 yards and three scores, with Calvin Johnson piling up the receiving numbers once again. Stafford has plenty of other options, including free agent wideout Golden Tate and the running back tandem of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush.

These offenses will take aim at a couple of defenses that have had some issues. Despite an all-star cast up front, the Lions are vulnerable in the secondary and Rodgers has historically lit them up. He is 9-1 in his career against the Lions with a 111.0 passer rating and 19 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. His only loss came in a game that he left with a concussion in the second quarter. Detroit’s defense has faced the Giants and Panthers so far, skewing their numbers favorably. Neither New York or Carolina possess the type of offense that Green Bay does, and the solid numbers they put up in the first two weeks will take a hit.

On the other hand, the Green Bay defense has not been good against Seattle or the Jets. Seattle hugn 36 points on the Pack and the Jets moved the ball well for most of the game. Green Bay is 31st in run defense and has allowed 353 yards in two games on the ground. Detroit can take advantage of the Packers on the ground, which will only set up the passing game and open things up for Stafford.

The pace of the game should be fairly quick, as Green Bay will run the no-huddle some to get its offense in rhythm. There is also plenty of players on the field with big play capabilities on both sides, so quick points can almost be assured of. Look for the offenses to dominate and this one to go over the total.

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Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions Brent Crow

NFL Gambling: Redskins sans Griffin III earn SuperContest top pick

09.21.2014     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 3 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. WASHINGTON +6.5 at Philadelphia 
2. INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 at Jacksonville 
3. NY GIANTS +2 vs. Houston 
4. CINCINNATI -6.5 vs. Tennessee 
5(t). BUFFALO -2.5 vs. San Diego 
5(t). DALLAS -1.5 at St. Louis

Least picked Sunday side: OAKLAND +14 at New England

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins

College Football Handicapping: 2nd half Kick Off List - Week 4

09.20.2014     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly

To help you with your wagers today, below is a list of teams that receive the kick to start the second half.

2014 College Football 2nd Half Kick Off List - Week 4
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd half kick
Penn State
Ball State
Ball State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan
Bowling Green
Wake Forest
Wake Forest
North Carolina
East Carolina
North Carolina
San Jose State
Eastern Michigan
Michigan State
Michigan State
South Carolina
South Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State
Georgia State
Georgia State
Appalachian State
Southern Miss
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Texas A&M
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Florida State
Florida State
Texas State
Texas State
Old Dominion
Florida International
Florida International
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH)
San Diego State
Oregon State
Oregon State
Mississippi State
Mississippi State
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois
Utah State
Arkansas State
Utah State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
New Mexico State
Miami (FL)
West Virginia
Boise State
Boise State

Tags: College Football

College Football Betting Consensus: Public dials up big chalk and overs for Week 4

09.20.2014     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top five consensus bets (sides and totals) for Saturday's college football games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

92.2% - TEXAS A&M -34 vs. SMU 
83.9% - MISSOURI -13 vs. Indiana 
81.7% - DUKE -17 vs. Tulane 
81.3% - OREGON -22.5 at Washington State 
81.0% - COLORADO -9 vs. Hawaii

89.2% - OVER 58.5 Georgia Southern-South Alabama 
85.7% - OVER 57 Idaho-Ohio 
85.2% - OVER 77.5 Oregon-Washington State 
83.9% - UNDER 59 Appalachian State-Southern Miss 
83.7% - OVER 65 Oklahoma-West Virginia

Tags: College Football

Sportsmemo's College Football In-Game Discussion - Week 4

09.20.2014     06:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Don't miss Sportsmemo's Posting Forum College Football Week 4 in-game discussion. The Sportsmemo Handicappers and posting forum members share their thoughts, opinions, and second half wagers throughout the day. If you're not a forum member, it's free to sign up! All you need is a username and password. Come be a part of the WINNING action!

Tags: College Football

College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers

09.19.2014     08:23 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Oklahoma at West Virginia 
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -12.5 O/U 62 
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -7.5 O/U 65 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma -14.5 
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Over

We have an interesting Big XII matchup in Morgantown on Saturday night with Oklahoma taking on West Virginia. The Sooners offense has been very hard to stop for any defense this season and the West Virginia suspect stop unit should have its hands full slowing them down. The Mountaineers yielded an alarming 37 points on 447 total yards at a 6.9 yards per play clip against Maryland and escaped with the 40-37 win. That is bad news facing Oklahoma's potent attack led by quarterback Trevor Knight. Knight has gotten off to a very strong start (860 yards passing) after his breakout performance in OU’s Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. The loss of starting running back Keith Ford (6 TDs) likely won’t have a significant impact with the likes of Samaje Perine and Alex Ross as quality backups.That said, it is logical that Knight and the passing game will be called on even more which of course is a benefit to over bettors.The Sooners will surely attack West Virginia’s secondary which will be without its top cornerback, Daryl Worley (17 tackles, 2 INTs), who was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. I don't see West Virginia forcing many punts in this contest.

Oklahoma's defense has looked strong but will take a step up class facing a capable offense on the road. WVU quarterback Clint Trickett has been sensational with a gaudy 75% completion rate, 1,224 passing yards, 9 yppa, and a terrific 7-1 TD-INT ratio. West Virginia won’t be able to line up and run the ball in between the tackles against a Sooners defense that is allowing only 2.71 ypc. So expect Trickett and the offense to attempt over 50 passes in this one which again, lends itself to bigger chunks of yards and clock stoppage. A perfect example of this was Week 1 against Alabama in which the Mountaineers gained only 28 yards on the ground but nearly 400 yards through the air.

Pace wise, we know West Virginia will do its best to run 80+ plays. Because of big leads, Oklahoma hasn’t been in a situation where it needed to push tempo for an entire 60 minutes. With this projected to be their most competitive game, I look for that to change. Barring multiple gaffes inside the red zone, this game has the potential to reach the 70’s.

ICC 20* CFB Game Of The Month [15-5 75% +19.0 CFB 20* Since 2013] $39 
Ian Cameron flat out WINS in College Football and has been delivering the goods with a 72-57 record banking +18.7 units of profit since the start of the 2013 season. Ian is currently Sportsmemo's top producer in College Football this season banking +6.2 units of profit. He has crushed the big plays with an AWESOME 15-5 75% for +19.0 units with his College Football 20* releases since the start of last year. He is ready to deliver his strongest CFB side in September on Saturday with his 20* CFB Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB report is free.

Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII

NFL Gambling Alert: Arizona's Stanton gets starting nod vs. San Francisco

09.19.2014     02:01 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Francisco -3 at Arizona O/U 42

Arizona announced that Drew Stanton will start again in place of Carson Palmer (shoulder) as the Cardinals play host to San Francisco. Stanton was 14-of-29 for 167 yards in last week's win at New York. The 49ers opened and remain 3-point road favorites.  

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers

NFL Betting Podcast 9-19-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

09.19.2014     11:31 AM     Printer Friendly


Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 3 Every Game on the Board coverage. Brent Crow and Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Brent Crow - NFL Game on the Board Part I

Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Brent Crow Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles

09.19.2014     08:53 AM     Paul Stone     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Paul Stone blog entry.
Clemson at Florida State 
Saturday, 5:15 pm PT - ABC 
CRIS Opener:
Florida State -19.5 O/U 66 
CRIS Current: Florida State -14.5 O/U 60 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida State -16 
Paul Stone's Recommendation: Clemson

Defending champion Florida State, at first glance, would appear to have only a handful of bumps on its path to a likely appearance in this year's four-team college football playoff.

One of those potential detours occurs Saturday when the Seminoles, who have had a pair of lukewarm performances in their first two games, host ACC rival Clemson at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Florida State was a 19.5-point favorite at mid-week before the school suspended Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston for the first half of Saturday's contest due to a vulgar outburst at a campus building in which he was apparently imitating a popular internet meme.

It was the latest in a series of judgment lapses by Winston which have unfortunately become the norm for the sophomore quarterback rather than the exception. On the field, however, the 6-4, 235-pound signal caller displays a game-day confidence and clutch demeanor which has few peers in the college game.

As of late Thursday afternoon, the line had dipped to 14.5 points at most offshore and Vegas shops.

Last year in a much-anticipated, overhyped October matchup, the Seminoles, who were ranked No. 5 at the time, went into third-ranked Clemson and dismantled and undressed the Tigers from the opening bell, ultimately posting a 51-14 victory which was probably more lopsided than the final score indicated.

Both teams, most notably Clemson, have changed considerably since last year's meeting.

Clemson lost a trio of talented skill players as three-year starting quarterback Tajh Boyd (who set more than 50 school records); tailback Roderick McDowell (1,025 yards rushing last year); and NFL first-round draft choice Sammy Watkins, who had 101 catches for 1,464 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013, moved on to the pro game.

Defensively, however, the Tigers return loads of talent, especially in the front seven, headed by All-America candidate Vic Beasley who had 13 sacks and 10 tackles for losses last season. 
Senior Cole Stoudt, who has waited in the wings for his opportunity, was named Clemson's starting quarterback during the summer, but the feeling is true freshman Deshaun Watson, an electrifying runner who has a little shake in his gait, will likely begin to get more snaps as the Tigers lack proven playmakers on offense.

Watson's increased offensive role could begin Saturday night in Tallahassee.

Some media types and handicappers possibly docked Clemson too heavily following its 45-21 season-opening loss at Georgia. For most of three quarters, the Tigers stood toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs before running out of gas down the stretch.

Clemson's a young, evolving football team at many positions and will improve as key personnel gain experience.

With Winston missing the game's first two quarters (Little-used sophomore Sean Maguire will get the start) and the Tigers still smarting from last season's home beat down, I'll recommend taking the visiting underdog and 14.5 points.

PStone 20* CFB Top Shelf Report [Oklahoma at West Virginia on FOX] $39 
Paul Stone has a winning selection for Saturday's night's Big XII showdown between Oklahoma and West Virginia on FOX. Get on board for only $39; guaranteed to win or Paul's next top rated pick is on the house.

Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers Florida State Seminoles ACC Paul Stone

College Football Betting: It doesn't get any uglier than UConn vs. South Florida

09.19.2014     08:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We're having trouble remembering a worse single-event college football game than tonight's UConn vs. South Florida matchup - and that includes those late season, early week MAC and Sun Belt affairs. In theory, someone has to be favored and the Bulls, at home, are the default chalk. But there aren't many teams with a worse track record as a favorite. Since its spreading covering win over Syracuse in November of 2011, USF is on a horrific 3-7 SU, 0-9-1 ATS slide as chalk. Two of those wins came against FBC competition. The lone FCS win, of course, came against UConn. Godspeed, bettors.

Tags: College Football South Florida Bulls UConn Huskies AAC

NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices Week 3

09.19.2014     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Link to's Elo Ratings and spreads for NFL Week 3. Some of the biggest discrepancies include...

Houston at NY Giants 
Market: Houston -2 
ELO: NY Giants -3

Minnesota at New Orleans 
Market: New Orleans -9.5 
ELO: New Orleans -5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 
Market: Indianapolis -7 
ELO: Indianapolis -5

San Francisco at Arizona 
Market: San Francisco -3 
ELO: Arizona -0.5

Pittsburgh at Carolina 
Market: Carolina -3 
ELO: Carolina -6

Tags: NFL

College Football Gambling: Iowa's offense stuck in the mud

09.19.2014     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Iowa at Pittsburgh -7 O/U 47

As Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning mentioned on Wednesday's podcast, "Iowa football is 2.9 yards and a cloud of dust." Rynning was referring to Iowa's yards per carry in last week's 20-17 loss to Iowa State. Under Kirk Ferentz, the offense has always been pedestrian but through three games, Iowa is taking it to a whole new level. Against Northern Iowa, Ball State, and Iowa State, the Hawkeyes recorded only five plays from scrimmage longer than 20 yards. Only Eastern Michigan has posted fewer (3) out of teams that have played three games. And as mentioned in this article, Iowa returned virtually its entire offense and OC Greg Davis is in his third year. Things don't get easier this weekend against Pittsburgh. Out of teams that have played three games, the Panthers have allowed only 22 plays of 10+ yards. Only Baylor, Stanford, and LSU have better marks.

“Greg is an outstanding teacher. He’s an outstanding human being. He’s a solid person,” Ferentz said. “But if you’re in it long enough, you’re going to get your tail kicked. That’s just the way it goes. That’s part of the deal. If you can’t deal with it, you probably have to do something else.”

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Erin Rynning

New Jersey offers profits to leagues to help combat point shaving

09.19.2014     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New Jersey has proposed that a small fraction of the revenue generated from sports betting go towards the "fight" against match fixing/point shaving.

“This could be a national model for sports betting,” they wrote. “When sports wagering is eventually legalized nationwide, this surcharge would generate millions of dollars a year for the leagues. Given your openness to sports betting, we hope that the NBA and other sports leagues can come to an agreement with casino and racetrack operators on the collection and distribution of this surcharge.”

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Erin Rynning

Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Auburn, Atlanta, and the OVER

09.18.2014     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (sides and totals) for tonight's two football game courtesy of Bookmaker. On the college front, Auburn heads to Manhattan to take on Kansas State. The home underdog Wildcats saw a fair amount of market support this afternoon with the line now down to a touchdown at most offshore books. In the NFL, Atlanta plays host to Tampa Bay. Over pressure has the total up from 45 to 46.5/47. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

71.7% - Atlanta -6.5 
63.5% - Auburn -7

75.7% - OVER 47 Tampa Bay-Atlanta 
75.6% - OVER 63.5 Auburn-Kansas State

Tags: College Football NFL Auburn Tigers SEC Kansas State Wildcats Big XII Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons

NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

09.18.2014     01:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Denver at Seattle 
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS 
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5 
CRIS Current: Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -6 
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

We all remember what happened when these two teams met in the Super Bowl; a game that was arguably decided on the very first play from scrimmage – a bad snap safety for the Broncos.  And we all know how strong the Seahawks home field has been in recent years.  Seattle’s 20 point win over Green Bay in their opener was just the tip of the iceberg.   They’ve beaten plenty of other elite teams on this field over the last few years, including wins by 26 and 29 points over San Francisco, by 27 over New Orleans, and by 58 over Arizona as part of their truly impressive 13-4 ATS run in the regular season on this field since the start of the 2012 campaign.

The question here is ‘What’s likely to be different this time around?"   My answer to that starts with the offenses for both of these teams.  Seattle’s offense is much better than it was last year.  Denver’s offense isn’t, but the Broncos certainly are capable of enjoying more success this Sunday than they did on Super Bowl Sunday, especially with the early weather reports showing a mild, sunny day, in sharp contrast to the weather in New Jersey last February.

Let me start with the Seahawks part of the equation.  Percy Harvin is healthy and making big plays on a weekly basis.  Marshawn Lynch is fresh, especially after only getting six carries in their loss at San Diego last week.  Russell Wilson’s confidence is sky high, throwing four TD’s without an INT so far this year, while completing 68% of his throws in each of their first two games.. Last year’s banged up offensive line has transformed into a relatively healthy unit in 2014.  And a Seahawks squad that closed out last year on a 7-0 run to the Under prior to the Super Bowl is now 2-0 to the Over this year, a harbinger of things to come.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos offensive line both had miserable performances in the Super Bowl.  Much of that was circumstantial.  Manning is not the same QB in cold weather.  Denver was unprepared for the crowd noise, and they are most assuredly a ‘rhythm’ offense, not a team that benefitted from the extra week of prep time.  We’re talking about an elite level NFL offense with a Hall of Fame QB and multiple pro bowl caliber receivers; a team that spent a decent portion of this past offseason focused on this very game. 

I’m not expecting John Fox to get outcoached quite so badly here.  And with Seattle’s defense showing a repeated inability to get off the field on third downs – ranked dead last in the NFL with 55% conversions allowed thusfar – the Broncos are poised to score alot more than eight points this time around!   Take the Over.

T. Covers 20* NFL Big Ticket Wrong Team Favored [27-14 +23.4 Unit Run] $39 
Teddy has been at his best with his strongest selections [20* Big Ticket Reports], 27-14 66% across sports since April, up more than 23 Units of profit. He delivered a Wrong Team Favored 20* Big Ticket winner with the Bengals in Week 1, primed to cash another right side here! This play must win or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 9-18-2014

09.18.2014     10:53 AM     Printer Friendly


Here's our Week 4 College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Handicappers Paul Stone, Teddy Covers, and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments 
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board

Paul Stone - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I

Teddy Covers - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II

Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: College Football Paul Stone Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Idaho Vandals at Ohio Bobcats

09.18.2014     09:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Idaho at Ohio 
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN3 
CRIS Opener:
Ohio -13 O/U 54 
CRIS Current: Ohio -14 O/U 55.5 
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio -14 
Drew Martin's Recommendation: Idaho

The Ohio Bobcats will host the Idaho Vandals in their home opener on Saturday night. Idaho, led by a freshman quarterback, will travel over 2,000 miles to Athens, Ohio. The Vandals have lost 32 of their last 38 football games and they take on a Bobcats squad who has made five straight bowl appearances. Just glancing at this non-conference matchup you would most likely think it’s a mismatch, however as we uncover more about each of these teams you may be surprised.

Frank Solich is in his tenth year as the Bobcats head coach. The Ohio native took over a program which only had two winning seasons in the last twenty-two years. He has led the Bobcats to five straight bowl games and has retained his offensive and defensive coordinators the last nine years. Despite all of Solich’s accomplishments the program has been in a steady decline the last three years. From last year’s team Solich lost Tyler Tettleton to graduation; Tettleton is Ohio’s all-time leading passer. Losing Tettleton and seven other starters off of last year’s offensive unit, has had a major impact on this year’s offensive production. The Bobcats have struggled in each of the first three games this year averaging only 11.3 points per game.

Idaho will leave the Gem State for the third time this season, although they will only be playing their second game outside of the Kibby Dome because their season opener against Florida was cancelled due to weather. The Vandals second year head coach Paul Petrino (brother of Bobby Petrino) will be starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback, Matt Linehan; son of Scott Linehan who is currently the passing game coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. Idaho certainly doesn't have two losses because of the effort of their quarterback, who has been shining in his first two starts with the team. So far on the season, Linehan has 686 yards passing with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has a 60.2 completion percentage, completing 53 of 88 passes. He is behind an offensive line who returns nine of their top 10 from last year’s team. His favorite target last game was quarterback turned receiver Joshua McCain who brought down seven catches for 128 yards and one touchdown.

In my opinion the betting markets are slow in reacting to the improvement that the Vandals have shown this year. I also feel the oddsmakers are slow in downgrading this Ohio team. Couple that with the trouble the Bobcats have had offensively and having to win by more than two touchdowns is just too much to ask from a team averaging less than 12 points per game.

Tags: College Football Idaho Vandals Ohio Bobcats Drew Martin

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