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CFL Week 4 Betting News and Notes

07.23.2014     07:33 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my CFL Week 4 News & Notes as I take a look at each team in the CFL providing observations, analysis and a glimpse into what is to come for all 9 CFL teams following Week 4. 
 
Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

The frustrations were clearly evident with the Argos after their painful 18-17 loss to the expansion Ottawa Redblacks in what was Ottawa’s first home game since rejoining the CFL this season. Toronto finally got a strong performance from their rebuilt defense but oddly enough it was QB Ricky Ray and the offense (the supposed strongest part of the team) that simply couldn’t get anything going as they sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers and penalties throughout the game. It was a game that was there for the taking for Toronto but they just couldn’t make any key plays to turn it into a win. Now they sit at 1-3 after wasting a great performance from the defense and now must face the well-rested and likely angry Saskatchewan Roughriders who are coming off their bye and it’s worth noting Saskatchewan lost their game before the bye to this very Argos team in Toronto 48-15 back in Week 2. Toronto will need to find step up contributors on offense particularly from their injury decimated receiving corps if they hope to go into Regina and emerge victorious this week.

Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Some things never change including Montreal’s inability to be competitive in BC. The Alouettes were once again shellacked by the Lions in Vancouver this past week in a 41-5 loss making them 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 games played in BC since 2011 while being outscored to the whopping tune of 163-30! Montreal’s offense was coming off their best performance of the season by far in Week 3 despite a tough 34-33 loss to Winnipeg but this game was a big step backward for Montreal’s offense and QB Troy Smith who was beyond terrible completing just 5-for-17 passing and 45 yards. He was replaced in the 4th Qtr by Tanner Marsh when the game was already way out of hand. The offense was shut completely down as Smith never got any sort of rhythm going in the passing game nor could they effectively run the football with Brandon Whitaker. The defense didn’t play all that great either but they did their best to keep Montreal in the game for as long as possible but quite simply the Alouettes did not move the football at all and went right back to the struggles of the first two weeks. The questions about having a new QB, reshuffled offensive line and a first time coordinator will all start being asked once again as Montreal goes into their bye week here in Week 4.

Ottawa Redblacks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Ottawa reached down and pulled out a hard fought victory in their first home game as a franchise at the brand new TD Place. The defense remains the team’s strength as I figured it would be with head coach Rick Campbell’s defensive background shining through. They held down a very good QB in Ricky Ray albeit with Toronto missing arguably their three top receivers but there are concerns on the offensive side of the football as QB Henry Burris and the Redblacks managed to win without scoring a single TD. They got away with being unable to finish drives last week but it may not be quite as easy on the road this week even against a winless Hamilton squad.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats have managed to be profitable with a 2-1 ATS record through three games despite not having won yet. Hamilton played well enough to win in Calgary last week as their defense rose to the occasion and shut down the Stampeders but their own offense along with turnovers and a costly bad hold on a FG attempt which could have tied the game late all came back to haunt Hamilton. I still believe this team has the capability of being the Grey Cup contender we thought they would be entering the season but the offense simply must get better and it all starts with the offensive line a) getting healthier and b) playing much better. At this point it doesn’t matter who is at QB between injured #1 Zach Collaros or his backups Dan LeFevour or Jeremiah Masoli, the bottom line is the Ticats offensive line is not good enough at this point and must improve for Hamilton to start winning games. Collaros has already been ruled out for this Saturday’s “home opener” against Ottawa which has been moved to the McMaster University campus stadium in Hamilton due to the fact the brand new Tim Hortons Field is not quite ready to host a game. It will be either Dan LeFevour or Jeremiah Masoli at QB on Saturday but after Masoli’s struggles with accuracy last week in Calgary, my $$ would have to be on LeFevour getting the call at QB this week for Hamilton.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The early season joy about an unexpected 3-0 start came to a crashing halt last week for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as they were soundly dominated from start to finish by the Edmonton Eskimos in a 26-3 home loss. For the first time this season, Winnipeg’s offense was ineffective as QB Drew Willy had his worst game of the season completing less than 50% of his passes without a single TD and he also threw a costly pick six early in the game. The Edmonton defensive front was way too powerful for Winnipeg to handle as Willy didn’t have much time to get rid of the football throughout the game. RB Nic Grigsby was also held in check by that same dominating Edmonton defense as he was kept to just 50 yards rushing. Winnipeg’s defense played well to start the game but Edmonton eventually got their offense going and were able to wear down a tired Blue Bombers defense late. Winnipeg heads to BC to face a Lions team that has won back-to-back games in impressive fashion and will be good evidence whether or not the Blue Bombers have staying power to compete in the very tough West Division or if they were playing a little bit over their heads to get to that 3-0 start.

Edmonton Eskimos (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Calgary is tied with Edmonton for 1st place in the West and overall but Edmonton is the only team entering Week 5 with an unblemished 4-0 ATS mark from a pointspread perspective. The Eskimos have been the early season surprise story I thought they could be but I never expected them to be this good, this soon. Edmonton’s defense certainly has been the best in the CFL with all due respect to Calgary which also has played extremely well defensively so far. The Eskimos are doing it with a focused, intense, winning attitude exuded by first year head coach Chris Jones and the defense is leading the way for them by playing ferocious along the defensive line in terms of both stopping the run and getting pressure on opposing QB’s as well as a secondary that has been locking down some of the better receivers in coverage down the field. There is probably still room for improvement with Edmonton’s offense as QB Mike Reilly still needs to work on his deep ball accuracy but his short to intermediate throws have been on target and the ground game has really improved the last 2 weeks since John White (who played his College Football at Utah) took over as the starting RB. Edmonton faces provincial rival Calgary in a showdown of unbeaten teams in the West on Thursday night in a game that should give the Eskimos another chance to show just how much they have improved.

Calgary Stampeders (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

It wasn’t pretty but the Calgary Stampeders got the job done squeaking out an ugly 10-7 home win against Hamilton last week. The Calgary offense didn’t look out of place in their 34-15 win against Toronto despite being without a handful of key offensive weapons including RB Jon Cornish and that could have been a product of getting to prepare for that game after a bye but the offense struggled like most expected they would without their workhorse RB against Hamilton. QB Bo Levi Mitchell never really got anything going in the passing game and Calgary’s offense really was made up of a couple key 1st down throws and their TD came on a gadget play that ended in a Brad Sinopoli TD run. The defense was the difference though and held their 3rd straight opponent to 15 points or less getting another phenomenal game from their stop unit. The Stamps are hoping to get some bodies back to that depleted offense for their 1st place showdown against the Eskimos on Thursday night and they will need an offense at much better strength this week if they hope to go on the road and knock off the red hot Edmonton Eskimos.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Saskatchewan had their bye last week so we won’t go into detail discussing them but it will be interesting to see if the Roughriders can build on B2B pointspread covers for teams coming off a bye week when they host the Toronto Argonauts here in Week 5 laying nearly a TD in that contest. The problem might be they entered the bye out of sync on both sides of the football and will need to prove they can get things together on both offense and defense.

BC Lions (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

The BC Lions are starting to look like the West Division and Grey Cup contenders we expected them to be prior to the season especially with Vancouver hosting this year’s Grey Cup game in November. We’ve seen their offense really come to life with the resurgence of QB Kevin Glenn and RB Andrew Harris plus the return of their best WR Emmanuel Arceneaux from injury. The Lions defense has also been tremendous in their two straight wins getting consistent pressure up front along the defensive line and have also done a good job stopping the run. BC has knocked off Saskatchewan on the road and Montreal at home in B2B games by a combined score of 67-18 and they have their swagger back as they prepare to host Winnipeg this week.

Follow me on Twitter @bobano  




 

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners

07.22.2014     09:02 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (DeGrom) at Seattle (Ramirez) -110 O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Seattle


The Seattle Mariners got the job last night against the NY Mets in a 5-2 win. The score wasn't indicative of the game as the Mariners hit the ball all over the park on Mets starter Jon Niese and deserved to put up more runs.  Seattle has been able to hang around the wildcard playoff race with a 53-46 record.  Playing in the difficult AL West has been a challenge, but the starting pitching has been Seattle's saving grace.  The Mariners have Erasmo Ramirez on the mound tonight as they look to rest over worked starters Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma another day.  Ramirez hasn't had the prettiest of starts this season, but he has turned the corner as of late giving up just two earned runs in his last four starts.  Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets tonight and this young starter has been impressive at times.  The Mets just don't have the bats to take advantage of a weaker starter being plugged into the rotation here.  New York has now lost three straight games and they've scored just 3 runs in those losses.  Seattle is getting a very cheap price here at home.  Back the better team at home tonight.

Tags: MLB New York Mets Seattle Mariners Sammy P




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so. 
  
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox and Braves in September or the Rangers last year) or riding teams that are playing far better baseball than their full season stats would indicate.

The latter of the two is the case here.  Tampa Bay isn’t playing like a last place team that’s six games under .500.  Rather, the Rays have won five straight and 16 of their last 21 with a lineup that’s finally hitting and a pitching staff that is shutting everybody down (only six runs allowed in Minnesota over the weekend).

The Rays are catching Adam Wainwright off-rhythm following his All Star Game appearance when he “grooved one” to Derek Jeter and gave up three runs in an inning. Wainwright hasn’t really been stretched out in ten days.  And it’s surely worth noting that key Tampa bats James Loney, Evan Longoria, Jose Molina and Ben Zobrist all have hit .333 or better against Wainwright in their careers, a combined 17-39 (.435).

The Cardinals are not a very good hitting team and Jake Odorizzi has, very quietly, allowed only eleven runs in his last seven starts; dominating repeatedly, with advanced metric stats that show his current form is not entirely flukish.  That makes the Rays a clear choice for me at this attractive underdog price.

Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

07.19.2014     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle (Hernandez) at LA Angels (Richards) -105 O/U 6.5 
Recommendation: Under


Expecting a playoff atmosphere is Anaheim tonight with the Mariners and Angels sending their two respective aces to the hill. Back in early May, Felix Hernandez had one of their weirdest outings of his career where he failed to record a strikeout in a 6.1 inning outing against Oakland. Since then, he's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.77 ERA and incredible 101-13 K-to-BB ratio over 12 starts. In two games vs. the Angels this season, the King has been dominant with only three earned runs and 20 strikeouts in 14.2 IP. Garrett Richards may be new to the "elite scene" but his stuff is as good as anyone in baseball. He too has been dialed in with a stellar 1.27 ERA over his last eight outings. Richards is on pace for a 200-inning season so there's slight concern for some sort of swoon or dead arm period but he's been able to maintain his velocity and comes into tonight's game off extended rest thanks to the All-Star break. Marathon 16-inning affair last night with both bullpens worked but out of the break the top relief arms should be good to go if need be. Expect a 3-2, 4-2 type game as we come in on the UNDER.

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Andrew Lange




Football Betting Podcast 7-18-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

07.18.2014     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy preview the NFC South while Erin and host Andrew Lange talked Big Ten West.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Teddy Covers - NFC South Preview

Erin Rynning - Big Ten West Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL College Football Big Ten Teddy Covers Erin Rynning




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Argonauts Ottawa RedBlacks

07.18.2014     11:56 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto at Ottawa +1.5 O/U 53 
Recommendation: Ottawa


After last week’s 27-11 loss in Edmonton – one they may have looked past – the Ottawa RedBlacks will host their first home game in nine years since the last franchise folded. Ottawa players have been talking all week about how big of a moment this is for the organization and city so I'm expecting a Grey Cup-level of focus and intensity. As poorly as their offense played in the loss to Edmonton, quarterback Henry Burris and the Redblacks are taking a severe step down in defensive class vs. Toronto. The Argos’ defense is completely rebuilt and it showed with 79 points allowed in two of their first three games. Toronto should be the ideal foe for the Ottawa offense to move the football. Toronto's offense is also going through its share of ups and downs. Quarterback Ricky Ray is a veteran who normally bounces back strong after a bad game but he’s working with a very depleted receiving corps which will be playing without their top three weapons – Chad Owens, Jason Barnes and Andre Durie are all out indefinitely due to injury. That pretty much leaves Toronto with one reliable target, John Chiles. Making matters worse for the Argos is their inability to run the football with just 95 rushing yards per game through three weeks. Ottawa's defense has been solid so far and they allowed just 11 points through three quarters against Edmonton before wearing down in the fourth. This is a spot that is too good to ignore and I’m projecting the home squad to score its first win of the season.

Ian Cameron 20* CFL Game Of The Month [Goes Friday; 60-47 56% CFL Lifetime] $29 
Sportsmemo's CFL expert Ian Cameron is off to a great start for Week 4 after sweeping the board last night. Friday's card is highlighted by his one and only 20* CFL Game Of The Month supporting a team in a great situation at a great price as Ian looks to build on his 60-47 56% CFL Lifetime record. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL Football report is free.

Tags: CFL Toronto Argonauts Ottawa RedBlacks Ian Cameron




College Football Betting: LSU confident OC Cameron will make winner out of new QB

07.18.2014     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast we talked a little bit about LSU's precarious quarterback situation with Zach Mettenberger now graduated and three others transferring to new schools. That leads the Tigers with only two scholarship signal callers (sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris) plus a few walk-ons. Jennings played some last year (29 attempts) but Les Miles is reportedly "in love with" Harris. And speaking of Miles, he of course doesn't seem concerned with any the "issues" facing this year's squad. For example, since 2011 21 LSU players have left early for the NFL draft. That's more than double the amount of Alabama (9). Perhaps having Cam Cameron as your offensive coordinator is helping alleviate the sting of losing all of that talent. In Cameron's first season as OC, LSU's offensive numbers were significantly improved across the board compared to recent seasons (see stats below). LSU is currently the third choice to win the SEC West at +250 behind Auburn (+200) and Alabama (-250).


“Cam Cameron, a guy who’s made a career mentoring quarterbacks, is our offensive coordinator, will do the exactly right things with those guys. You’ll see how well a freshman can execute at quarterback.”

“So, what generally seems to me to be our position is, ‘Don't bother us. We don't care. We just want to work. We want to improve. We want to play one game at a time. We want to point at the next opponent,’” he said. “We understand that doesn't mean that we're in the immediate talk, but, if we continue to do the things we've done in the past, we'll earn our way.”



Under OC Greg Studrawa  
2011 total offense: 355.1 ypg 
2011 passing offense: 152.5 ypg

2012 total offense: 374.2 ypg 
2012 passing offense: 200.5 ypg

Under OC Cam Cameron 
2013 total offense: 453.3 ypg 
2013 passing offense: 251.0 ypg

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC




Football Betting Podcast 7-17-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron

07.17.2014     10:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron. Brent and host Andrew Lange talked SEC quarterbacks while Ian previewed Week 4 of the CFL.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Brent Crow - SEC Quarterbacks

Ian Cameron - CFL Week 4

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football SEC CFL Brent Crow Ian Cameron




New Jersey racetrack to offer football betting contests

07.17.2014     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New Jersey's Meadowlands Racetrack will be offering a quasi-form of sports betting this football season. CG Technology (Cantor) is able to sidestep the current laws because it isn't putting up its own money and there are guaranteed winners each week.


“I believe we have the nicest sports bar in New Jersey, but I was a little disappointed that we didn’t draw larger crowds last fall,” Gural said. “The most popular sport to watch at sports bars is football, and we think this will get a lot of people to come.”



Tags: College Football SEC CFL Brent Crow Ian Cameron




College Football Gambling: UNLV regains bowl eligibility

07.17.2014     06:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There was some confusion on yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast regarding UNLV's "status" with the NCAA due to various academic shortcomings. Following their first bowl berth since 2000, the Rebels were initially banned from the 2014-15 postseason due to a low APR score. At the time, it was the first such ban for a FBS school in the APR's 10-year history – which seems ridiculously odd. Not that UNLV's kids weren’t tanking classes but that out of a 10-year span and over 120 teams, UNLV's kids were the only ones tanking classes. Fast forward to late June and due to a "miscalculation" by the NCAA, the Rebels are back to being postseason eligible. There are still lingering issues like potential player transfers as well as the 13-game schedule UNLV put together as a result of the initial ban. Now they must go 7-6 as oppose to 6-6 in order to go bowling. And speaking of the schedule, this year is a significant step up in class compared to 2013-14. Last season UNLV played seven homes whereas this year's slate features seven road games including non-conference contests at Arizona and BYU. There are also three-straight road games in late September/early October and back-to-back road games vs. BYU and Hawaii in November.

Tags: College Football UNLV Rebels Mountain West




MLB Handicapping: Schedule becomes Baltimore's biggest obstacle

07.17.2014     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Baltimore Orioles own a four-game lead in the American League East and are a -120 favorite to win the division (5Dimes) but due to their second half strength of schedule, bettors may want to take a look at the odds for the other four teams (a bet on the field is only -120). The O's open the second half with a 10-game West Coast road trip against Oakland (No. 1 in MLB in run differential), LA Angels (No. 2 run diff), and Seattle (No. 4 run diff). They then return home to play six more against the Angels and Mariners. Then there is a make-up game vs. Washington (No. 3 run diff) and three-game sets at Toronto and vs. St. Louis. As pointed out my ESPN's Buster Olney, Baltimore's first 26 out of the All-Star break are against teams with records of .500 or better. And we'll also point out their 36/32 road game/home game split as well as the seven-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees to close the season – which could determine the East winner and/or a wild card berth.

Tags: MLB




MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42


Tags: MLB




NFL Handicapping: 2014-15 Schedule Partners

07.16.2014     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We posted this earlier this spring but worth another look for those who missed it.

Below is a schedule breakdown for the upcoming 2014-15 NFL season. Each team plays its division mates twice (six games). Each division is paired up with fellow division within the conference (ex. AFC East plays AFC West; AFC South plays AFC North; NFC East plays NFC West; NFC South plays NFC North; four games). Each team also plays two other games within the conference against teams that placed the same (ex. Buffalo placed fourth in the AFC East and plays fellow fourth place finishers, Houston and Cleveland). Lastly, each division is paired with another division in the other conference (ex. AFC East plays the NFC North; four games). For the curious, here's a link to last year's breakdown so you can compare.

2014-15 NFL Schedule Breakdown
AFC East
AFC Partners (West)
NFC North
Buffalo
at Houston, vs. Cleveland
at Chicago, at Detroit, vs. Minnesota, vs. Green Bay
Miami
at Jacksonville, vs. Baltimore
vs. Green Bay, at Chicago, at Detroit, vs. Minnesota
New England
vs. Cincinnati, at Indianapolis
at Minnesota, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, at Green Bay
NY Jets
vs. Pittsburgh, at Tennessee
at Green Bay, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, at Minnesota
AFC West
AFC Partners (East)
NFC West
Denver
vs. Indianapolis, at Cincinnati
at Seattle, vs. Arizona vs. San Francisco, at St. Louis
Kansas City
vs. Tennessee, at Pittsburgh
at San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle, at Arizona
Oakland
vs. Houston, at Cleveland
vs. Arizona, at Seattle, at St. Louis, vs. San Francisco
San Diego
vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore
at Arizona, vs. Seattle, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco
AFC South
AFC Partners (North)
NFC East
Houston
at Oakland, vs. Buffalo
vs. Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia
Indianapolis
at Denver, vs. New England
vs. Philadelphia, at NY Giants, vs. Washington, at Dallas
Jacksonville
at San Diego, vs. Miami
at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas, vs. NY Giants
Tennessee
at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets
vs. Dallas, at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs. NY Giants
AFC North
AFC Partners (South)
NFC South
Baltimore
vs. San Diego, at Miami
vs. Carolina, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Cincinnati
at New England, vs. Denver
vs. Atlanta, vs. Carolina, at New Orleans, at Tampa Bay
Cleveland
vs. Oakland, at Buffalo
vs. New Orleans, vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, at Carolina
Pittsburgh
at NY Jets, vs. Kansas City
at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. New Orleans, at Atlanta
NFC East
NFC Partners (West)
AFC South
Dallas
vs. New Orleans, at Chicago
at Tennessee, vs. Houston, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis
NY Giants
at Detroit, vs. Atlanta
vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
Philadelphia
vs. Carolina, at Green Bay
vs. Jacksonville, at Indianapolis, at Houston, vs. Tennessee
Washington
at Minnesota, vs. Tampa Bay
at Houston, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
NFC West
NFC Partners (East)
AFC West
Arizona
vs. Detroit, at Atlanta
vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Oakland, vs. Kansas City
San Francisco
vs. Chicago, at New Orleans
vs. Kansas City, at Denver, at Oakland, vs. San Diego
Seattle
vs. Green Bay, at Carolina
at San Diego, vs. Denver, vs. Oakland, at Kansas City
St. Louis
at Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota
at Kansas City, vs. Denver, at San Diego, vs. Oakland
NFC South
NFC Partners (North)
AFC North
Atlanta
at NY Giants, vs. Arizona
at Cincinnati, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh
Carolina
vs. Seattle, at Philadelphia
vs. Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland
New Orleans
at Dallas, vs. San Francisco
at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Baltimore, at Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
vs. St. Louis, at Washington
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
NFC North
NFC Partners (South)
AFC East
Chicago
at San Francisco, vs. Dallas
vs. Buffalo, at NY Jets, vs. Miami, at New England
Detroit
vs. NY Giants, at Arizona
at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, vs. Miami, at New England
Green Bay
at Seattle, vs. Philadelphia
vs. NY Jets, at Miami, vs. New England, at Buffalo
Minnesota
at St. Louis, vs. Washington
vs. New England, at Buffalo, vs. NY Jets, at Miami


Tags: NFL




Football Betting Podcast 7-16-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

07.16.2014     11:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down the Mountain West West Division while Teddy previewed the NFC West. 

Today's segments 
Full Show

Rob Veno - MWC West Division Preview

Teddy Covers - NFC West Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Mountain West. NFL Rob Veno Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Giants have second half scheduling edge over Dodgers

07.16.2014     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After a torrid start to the season, the San Francisco Giants fell hard and come out the All-Star break one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. But on paper, the second half schedule looks to heavily favor the Giants.

The Dodgers open with a nine-game road trip (at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, and at San Francisco) and then return home for a three-game set vs. Atlanta. After a three-game series vs. the Cubs, LA plays its next 11 games vs. the Angels, Brewers, and Atlanta -- nine of those 11 on the highway. They also play six of their nine games vs. San Francisco on the road.

The Giants meanwhile don't play Atlanta or St. Louis and have 11 games vs. Philadelphia and New York. And 13 of their final 19 games are against Arizona and San Diego. The Dodgers do have the benefit of play the Giants and Rockies at home the final seven games of the year. 


Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers




Las Vegas resident Pete Rose doesn't do the casino thing

07.16.2014     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In a recent interview, Pete Rose claimed no one in the Reds' clubhouse knew he was betting on baseball. He also said that despite living in Las Vegas, he never goes to casinos.


“Baseball, to me, is a better game if I’m in it,” Rose said, repeating a line from a 2012 interview with WFAN’s Steve Somers. “Because of my passion for the game and for my love of young players, and for the way I like to develop young players. When I managed the Reds from ’84 to ’89, nobody in that clubhouse knew that I was making a bet. Nobody.”

“There are some people that think I’m wrong when I drive by a race track,” he said. “Drive by it. Don’t stop in it. OK? I’m not a casino gambler. And if you don’t believe me, just have someone follow me around. I go to work every day, I get off, I go get me a Subway salad, I go home and watch baseball on TV. (I) never go in a casino.”

 


Tags: Las Vegas




Sports bettor Billy Walters attempting to sell San Diego home

07.16.2014     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Billy Walters has put one of his homes up for sale – without reserve. It's located just outside of San Diego and was originally on the market for $20 million – Walters bought it for $8.5 million three and half years ago. So if you're not doing anything August 15 and have some extra cash laying around, it could be yours!


“I’m not concerned that’s going to happen,” says Walters, who teamed with Fredrik Jacobson to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2008. “I paid $8.5 million for it three and a half years ago, right in the crunch of the recession. My wife, Susan, and I spent a little over $7 million in hard costs completely renovating it, with her doing all the work. This is probably the nicest house in the whole San Diego area.”

 


Tags: Billy Walters




World Cup sports betting ring busted as Las Vegas casino

07.16.2014     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
Huge illegal sports betting ring taken down at Las Vegas' Caesars Palace. One of the accused is high-stakes poker player Paul Phua. You can watch Las Vegas' KLAS report here.

Tags: Las Vegas




CFL Week 3 Betting News and Notes

07.15.2014     02:35 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my Week 3 CFL News and Notes as we examine each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) 
The pattern of inconsistency has continued for Toronto. They were horrible in Week 1, great in Week 2, and looked bad again in Week 3. Compounding the problem is that injuries are piling up at an alarming rate. They were already without two key receivers, Andre Durie and Jason Barnes, last week and now Chad Owens will not suit up for Week 4 and beyond after suffering a foot injury in the loss to Calgary. That leaves quarterback Ricky Ray without his three top receivers this week. It also puts pressure on the Argos’ mediocre ground game to decrease the number of possessions, control the clock and to attempt to protect a rebuilt defense that has been gashed for 79 points in two of their first three games. The lone positive is Toronto has strong long-term 13-4-1 ATS track record on the highway as they visit the expansion Ottawa Redblacks this week.

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) 
Just when Montreal’s offense finally has a breakthrough performance it is the usually stout defense that lets the team down. Winnipeg quarterback Drew Willy (making his first road start as the team’s starter) drove the Blue Bombers down for a game winning touchdown the final minute of a thrilling 34-33 win. It was a very tough loss for the Alouettes who will need to regroup on defense at BC. The positive news is that quarterback Troy Smith had his best game of the season with over 300 yards and 3 TD passes. BC has been a house of horrors for Montreal of late – 0-3 SU and ATS since 2011; lost all three games by a combined score of 122-25!

Ottawa Redblacks (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) 
The Ottawa Redblacks competed hard against Winnipeg in Week 1 but in their second straight road game against equally surprising Edmonton (3-0), they looked a bit more like an expansion team. In the 27-11 loss, quarterback Henry Burris and the Redblacks offense were completely shut down for the virtually the entire game. Ottawa’s defense held strong but eventually wore down late from being on the field for so long. The team returns home to play their first regular season home game this Friday night which is certainly a strong situational edge but will it be enough? There is no doubt Ottawa took a step backward last week and now they will be facing a Toronto team looking to make amends after a blowout loss to Calgary in Week 3.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) 
Hamilton had a bye last week and will travel to Calgary for Week 3. The Stampeders have started off very strong with dominating wins over Toronto and Montreal by a combined score of 63-23. The big news for Hamilton is quarterback Zach Collaros is still not feeling well enough to play after an injury in Week 2 against Edmonton. Former Oregon and Ole Miss quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has been named the starter and Dan LeFevour is expected to get some reps as well according to head coach Kent Austin. The biggest issue with Hamilton this week isn’t necessarily the QB position but more so the turnovers, penalties, and horrific offensive line play that has plagued them during their 0-2 start.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) 
I’m surprised by Winnipeg’s 3-0 start. I thought this team would take small steps forward this season thanks to the hire of head coach Mike O’Shea and a “nowhere to go but up” mentality. But few projected Drew Willy to be this good, this quickly, as a no. 1 quarterback. Willy has been excellent in three games completing 65% of his passes and a fantastic game winning TD drive last week. He has shown remarkable poise and a very calm demeanor under pressure and has limited mistakes with only two interceptions – one of which was tipped. Running back Nic Grigsby has been terrific on the ground to help provide balance, and the defense has been much improved. They’ve given up their share of points the last two weeks but they also came up with the critical, timely stops. Their perfect record will be put to the test on Thursday night against the Edmonton Eskimos in a battle surprise undefeated teams (they were a combined 7-29 last year!).

Edmonton Eskimos (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) 
As mentioned Edmonton is your other surprise story through three weeks. Quarterback Mike Reilly has a very good 7-2 TD-INT ratio and has completed 67.6% of his passes – he looks much more comfortable in his second year as a starter. The defense has been dominating due largely to the impact of head coach Chris Jones who has a strong defensive background after serving many years as defensive coordinator for both Calgary and Toronto. Odell Willis and Almondo Sewell have been fierce along the defensive line and they’ve also been good in the secondary. This was a potential under-the-radar group that has exceeded early season expectations.

Calgary Stampeders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) 
Calgary put its bye week to good use with a great game plan for the Toronto Argos. It resulted in a very impressive 34-15 road win despite the fact the Stamps were without three key offensive starters. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell had a career day with 6 TDs and no interceptions. He has a fine 65.3% completion rate after two games and finally providing some stability to the position. The question now is can it continue with Mitchell notorious for up-and-down performances. The good news for Calgary is the defense remains formidable after allowing just 23 combined points in their first two games and they should get healthier on offense as it is looking likely that running back Jon Cornish may return for Friday night’s home game against the Ticats.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) 
We have seen Saskatchewan look terribly out of sync in back-to-back weeks against Toronto and BC. The Roughriders offense scored just 28combined points and clearly missed lead WR Chris Getzlaf who didn’t play due to injury. We are also seeing the impact of losing running back Kory Sheets (now with the Oakland Raiders). They’ve been held in check as the team decided to go with veteran Hugh Charles instead of Anthony Allen who had been having problems protecting the football. The defense which was great last year has been serviceable to this point but not good enough to make up for what is clearly some offensive growing pains caused by injuries personnel changes. The bye week has come at a good time for the defending Grey Cup champions and we’ve already heard from head coach Cory Chamblin about more upcoming roster changes.

BC Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) 
BC dug down and played with the desperation I expected from them during last week’s 26-13 road win at Saskatchewan. It was the Lions’ first win of the season and it came as an underdog. There is plenty of pressure on this team with Vancouver set to host the Grey Cup and BC trying to win it as the host team. Last week’s win was a good start for a potential turnaround but there are still lots of room for improvement. The offense was better, specifically quarterback Kevin Glenn, but it needs to take next step. The return of veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux certainly helped as did the fact that running back Andrew Harris had his best game of the season with 138 yards including a highlight reel touchdown run. The Lions also got back to playing the type of defense that they are known for. Their mega linebacker du of Adam Bighill and Solomon Elimimian had big games and choked off any sort of passing attack from Saskatchewan with Darian Durant completing less than 50% of his passes for just 191 yards. BC should return home with confidence and a much needed weight off of its shoulders.

Follow me on Twitter @bobano 


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




Football Betting Podcast 7-15-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Brent Crow

07.15.2014     11:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Brent Crow. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down the Mountain West Mountain Division while Brent gave the scoop on how to approach betting NFL Preseason.

Today's segments 
Full Show

Rob Veno - MWC Mountain Division Preview

Brent Crow - NFL Preseason

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Mountain West. NFL Rob Veno Brent Crow




Teddy Covers' Famed NFL Season O/U Wins Report is here!

07.15.2014     11:26 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_7_15_2014.jpg

Teddy Covers NFL Season O/U Wins Report [68-29 70% lifetime, 10-1 91% 20*s] $199 
With an unprecedented track record dating back well over a decade, Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Wins Report remains a must-have for every kind of football bettor. Over a 13-year span, Teddy's clients have been rewarded with an outstanding 68-29 70% winning mark including an incredible 10-1, 91% with TC's top rated 20* Big Tickets. Last year's 20*, the Kansas City Chiefs Over 7.5, cashed before Halloween! As always, Teddy's recommendations will include detailed written analysis. The first release is just around the corner in late July followed by any additional selections after Week 3 of the preseason. Purchase now and lock in all the plays for the incredibly low price of $199. 


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: Westgate Superbook posts Season O/U Wins and Games of the Year

07.14.2014     02:27 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This past weekend the Westgate Superbook (formerly LVH) posted college football season over/under wins as well as its own College Football Games of the Year. You can check them all out right here.

Tags: College Football




LVH changes name to Westgate Superbook, upgrades to follow

07.14.2014     02:23 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like the LVH has a new owner and a new name with the sportsbook now called Westgate Superbook. Westgate Resorts CEO David Siegel bought the property for an estimated $160 million. According to The Vegas Parlay, the sportsbook will receive a multiple upgrades, including a jumbo screen TV. This will have no impact on the upcoming NFL SuperContest.

Tags: Las Vegas




Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning talks LeBron and NBA Futures for ESPN Insider

07.14.2014     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning was featured in a recent ESPN Insider article about the state of the NBA betting markets now that LeBron James in headed back to Cleveland. As of late last week, LVH (which is now the Westgate Superbook – more on that in another blog), had the Cavaliers in the 3-1 and 4-1 range to win the title.

Tags: NBA Cleveland Cavaliers Erin Rynning




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently available in the betting markets.  The books have little wiggle room when setting a number because of the short 16 game schedule.  There are very little impactful in-season trading, leaving injuries as the primary morphing catalyst.  And you can handicap depth effectively over the summer months, identifying teams with potentially significant injury concerns at key positions.

My win total handicapping process begins with creating accurate strength of schedule (SOS) numbers for both last year and the upcoming season.  The broader betting markets focus on strength of schedule using flawed analysis.  I’ll focus on those differences here.

The widely available information that helps set the markets start with last year’s results as their base point.  But they don’t do it thoroughly.  The conventional models simply add up the combined records of every opponent a team faced to come up with their strength of schedule both for 2013 and for the upcoming 2014 campaign.

Those standard models will tell you that the Chiefs, Eagles, Packers, Lions, Broncos and Bears played the six easiest schedules in the league last year, while the Bucs, Texans, Falcons, Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals played the six toughest slates.

That’s not my process.  I’ll focus on last year’s SOS this week, and move to the 2014 SOS in Part 2 of this article next week.  Creating numbers that are more accurate than the broader market for BOTH seasons are instrumental in what I’m trying to accomplish.

The aggregate numbers for last year’s strength of schedule – the starting point for any analysis of the upcoming 2014 campaign – can be extremely misleading.  A team’s final win-loss record tells us nothing about how good they actually were at the time the game was played.  There were some enormous in-season power rating shifts last year, just as there are every year.  Look no further than the Green Bay Packers, ranked among the league’s elite for the first part of 2013; but morphing into a below average team once Aaron Rodgers got hurt.

The markets view Green Bay as a team that went 8-7-1 for the season, completely average.  Every team that faced them gets that 8-7-1 added to their cumulative SOS numbers for the season. But there was an enormous difference between the Green Bay team that opened up at San Francisco in Week 1 compared to the team that lost by 30 to the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

So here’s what I do.  I go back to my 2013 spread sheet that details my power rating numbers on a weekly basis from last year.  Then I go through the schedule, using my numbers for every squad on the week the game was played.  Using that formula, you’ll get some VERY different results than the ones I listed above (Chiefs, Eagles, Packers, Lions, Broncos and Bears as exceptionally easy, while the Bucs, Texans, Falcons, Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals were exceptionally tough).

I also discount Week 17 results.  Some teams had quit on their coach and their season, other teams were resting starters and other teams were playing their guts out to try to reach the postseason.  Power rating models for the final week of the regular season are inherently flawed – that’s why we see enormous line moves that week every single year. The nine point move on the Chiefs – Chargers game in Week 17 last year is just one classic example.

Green Bay certainly wasn’t the only dramatic “morpher” last year.  Jacksonville ranked among the worst teams in NFL history for the first half of the season when they started 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS.  Following their bye, the Jags morphed into a “still bad but not abysmal” squad while going 4-4 SU down the stretch.  The Jaguars squad that got annihilated at home by KC in their opener was NOT the same squad that won three straight in late November and early December.

What about Houston and Atlanta, arguably the two biggest disappointments of 2013?  Both teams were perfectly competitive in September, but got progressively worse as the injuries mounted and the reality of their dismal campaigns sunk in.  Atlanta’s Week 1 loss to New Orleans shouldn’t be graded the same way as their Week 11 loss to Tampa Bay, when the team was positively moribund.   The Texans’ Week 4 loss to Seattle shouldn’t be graded the same as their Week 11 loss to Oakland.

Philadelphia is another great example.  The Eagles were mediocre at best in September and October, still picking up the nuances of Chip Kelly’s radically different offense.  By December, when Nick Foles was playing like a pro bowler, they were a juggernaut.  These are but a handful of examples of how and why my personal SOS numbers take into account these dramatic differences.

So where does that leave us?  The Rams played the single toughest slate in the league last year according to my numbers, and Houston, St Louis, Miami and Arizona all faced very tough schedules.  But four teams that aren’t on many “toughest schedules from last year” lists – the Redskins, Giants, Titans and Saints – also faced abnormally tough slates.  As a result, all of those teams should grade out as better than their final records would indicate.  We should not be surprised that only one of those teams (the Saints) made the playoffs.

On the easy side, according to my numbers, the Chiefs faced the weakest slate of opponents in the NFL. Standard model teams like the Bears, Eagles and Broncos also faced weak slates.  But Dallas, Carolina, Seattle, Buffalo, New England, the New York Jets, Cincinnati, San Diego and Pittsburgh all faced easier than average schedules, and the majority of those teams exceeded their win totals, at least partially as a result.

Next week I’ll finish the thought process, writing about the next step – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for the upcoming 2014 campaign.

Find me at Sportsmemo.com and Twitter @teddy_covers

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers







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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 23, 2014 08:54 PM.