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NCAAF Gambling Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines

09.09.2011     09:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

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Notre Dame at Michigan (5 pm PT – ESPN) 
CRIS Opening Line: Notre Dame -3 O/U 55.5 
CRIS Current Line: Notre Dame -3 O/U 55.5 
Rob Veno Power Rating: Notre Dame -0.5 
Teddy Covers Power Rating: Notre Dame -1

Andrew Lange's Betting Take: How "must win" can it get for Notre Dame who already appears to be in a state of panic following the switch in starting quarterbacks? I don't think it really matters who starts – both Crist and Rees appear comparable in ability – but what stands out is two weeks ago, Brian Kelly boldly announced that Crist would be the starter "for 13 weeks". That tells us that Kelly is feeling the heat and if he's already losing sleep, so is his team. On a more positive front, the Irish didn't play that bad in the loss to South Florida. Eliminate the turnovers and they could have easily won AND covered the -11. But rather than get a pass with a confidence-building home game, the go on the road to face a solid team as favorites no less.

Michigan didn't really do anything particularly good or bad in its rain-shortened win over Western Michigan. The Wolverines benefited from a couple of turnovers and finished even in yardage and first downs. There’s also the issue of home field (dis)advantage with a dismal mark of 12-11 SU since 2008. Still, I see a host of "evens" in this matchup. Kelly has the stronger reputation but shouldn’t be considered superior when compared to Hoke. Robinson is currently the better option at quarterback over Rees. Notre Dame has the edge on defense but I don't think the gap is massive despite Michigan's poor numbers from a season ago. And the overall personnel (athleticism, speed) for both sides are a wash. I respect the turn-around/revenge spot for Notre Dame but didn't hesitate to grab the +4 with the Wolverines early in the week with this one expected to be close.

Local Links: Notre Dame is doing what it can to prepare for Denard Robinson after allowing 502 yards of offense to the dual-threat quarterback in last year's 28-24 loss.

Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Notre Dame Fighting Irish Andrew Lange





This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

Aaron
09/09/2011 10:41 AM
Kelly’s had a good offense every place he’s been. Offense looked good again vs. USF. They have an accurate QB and good receivers. WMU has a good offense, but surely ND has a better one? I’m excited for this one, but not sold on Michigan offense or defense yet.


Martin Otto
09/09/2011 10:51 AM
Agree with you on the WMU offense. Carder is a pretty tough cookie at QB and he moved the ball effectively. Props to Michigan’s defense for forcing the turnovers. That’s a big part of this game too, as Notre Dame had all sorts of issues giving the ball away in the red zone last week.





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