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NFL Gambling Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

10.16.2016     09:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Dallas at Green Bay 
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX 
CRIS Opener: Green
Bay -7 O/U 47 
CRIS Current: Green Bay -5.5 O/U 47 
Recommendation: Green Bay

Just a few weeks ago, Dallas was a +3 underdog at Washington. Now, they’re +5.5 at Lambeau Field against the Packers. My numbers show nearly a touchdown’s worth of difference between the Redskins and Packers. Clearly, the markets are pretty high on Dallas right now.

The Cowboys have certainly exceeded early season expectations with rookie Dak Prescott behind center. Then again, Dallas hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of foes. Their first three wins came against the aforementioned Redskins, the Bears and the 49ers. Then, last week, they were home dogs against the Bengals, but Cinci showed up completely flat, while Dallas brought their A-game.

So we’re talking about a team that beat two bottom feeders, one mediocre foe and one team that just didn’t show. Now they’re supposed to be able to go to Green Bay and hang for 60 minutes? I’m not buying it!

There’s been some talk in the media this week that the Packers offense isn’t working somehow. The facts don’t bear that out one iota. In their last two games, Green Bay has scored 48 points and Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes...all before halftime! Sure, they were sloppy after the break, and didn’t execute perfectly, but this Packers offense still ranks with the NFL’s elite as long as Aaron Rodgers is behind center.

But the key to this wager is the Green Bay defense, ranked #1 in the NFL by a wide margin against the run; allowing a truly stingy 2.0 yards per carry. If Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t have room to run, and Dez Bryant (doubtful) doesn’t suit up, Dak Prescott is in for a long afternoon against Dom Capers confusing zone blitzes. Sure, Dallas is much better this year, but let’s be real -- the price is cheap to support the superior home favorite!

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers

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