Buffalo at Kansas City
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener: Kansas City -5.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Kansas City -6.5 O/U 41.5
The Chiefs' four-game winning streak has been as much about the weakness of their opponents than any other factor. Since their 1-5 start, KC has beaten the Steelers with Landry Jones making his first career start. They faced the Lions in London when Detroit was in complete disarray on offense. They knocked off the Broncos in what might be Peyton Manning’s last career start, a woeful four interception performance from the future Hall of Famer. And last week, they knocked off a bottom tier, injury riddled Chargers squad in blowout fashion.
I’m not saying that Kansas City is a bad team, not by any stretch of the imagination. But the Chiefs are a long, long way from being elite, and they’re an overvalued betting commodity at this stage of the campaign following this series of wins and covers.
The Chiefs offense is, most assuredly, a second tier unit. They rank #22 in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, with Alex Smith consistently throwing the ball away instead of trying to fit it into tight windows. KC’s offensive line play has been mediocre at best, and their running game lacks explosive playmakers since Jamal Charles got hurt. KC ranks #2 in the NFL in turnover margin at +10, another reason why they are at least somewhat overvalued in this pointspread range.
Buffalo’s defense is no joke. They just held New England to a season low in points and yards on Monday Night. A Chiefs team that has struggled to build margins for most of the season is likely to struggle to produce touchdowns in bunches this week too.
Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is healthy and expected to start on Sunday. The Bills have the type of big play offense that can produce quick strike touchdowns, and they’re fighting for their lives in the AFC playoff race. KC might win this game, but don’t expect an easy victory — this has all the makings of a game that gets decided one way or the other by a last minute field goal. Take the Bills.