SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

NFL Handicapping: First-year quarterbacks continue to cover pointspreads

09.27.2016     06:49 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For my very first weekly entry discussing the NFL from a betting perspective, I decided to focus on the success rate of first-year and/or rookie starting quarterbacks. For decades, conventional wisdom pointed toward betting against “green” quarterbacks. But there has been a paradigm shift in that regard so far in 2016. There have been six quarterbacks that have made their first ever start in the NFL: Trevor Siemian (Denver), Carson Wentz (Philadelphia), Dak Prescott (Dallas), Jimmy Garoppolo (New England), Jacoby Brissett (New England) and Cody Kessler (Cleveland). Siemien and Wentz appear to be the only two poised to be starter for the duration of the season while others are simply keeping the seat warm. Nevertheless, the collective amount of success from that group through three weeks of the season, specifically from a pointspread perspective, is impressive.

Denver, New England, and Philadelphia are all 3-0 SU/ATS. Dallas is a solid 2-1 SU/ATS. And Cleveland lost to Miami in overtime last week as +9.5 underdogs. The aforementioned group of signal callers have a combined for a 65.7% completion rate and a 15-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio (all 3 INTs via Siemian). They enter Week 4 with a combined 11-2 SU, 12-1 ATS mark. Note too that those five teams have combined for a +13 turnover margin; consistently winning the turnover battle remains and obvious key to pointspread success in the NFL regardless of who takes the snaps. The question now becomes, will these quarterbacks and teams maintain their path or suffer regression?

I certainly am a believer in Wentz. I was unsure of how much to make of wins over woeful Cleveland and Chicago but his performance against Pittsburgh was dominating. Wentz has displayed an aura of poise and calmness in the pocket and has made one great read after another in the passing game despite playing with a middling receiving corps. He has looked wise beyond his years with a 64.7% completion rate, 5-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio and 103.8 QB rating. He’s also backed by an Eagles’ defense that has clearly bought in to Jim Schwartz’s aggressive schemes which completely shut down Ben Roethlisberger and a potent Pittsburgh offense.

Prescott is another of the first-year starters that should retain some ATS value in the weeks ahead. He is a dual threat that can make plays with his feet when the pocket collapses. He also has the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s top offensive lines. Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott continues to get better which coupled with quality weapons at receiver provides Prescott with the blueprint to succeed. The Cowboys have the offense to never be out of a game and could be a good betting option specifically in the underdog role (at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh) in the weeks to come.

It’s not as easy to evaluate the future success of Garoppolo and Brissett because Tom Brady is slated to return in Week 5? Garoppolo looked outstanding in New England’s Week 1 win at Arizona and equally brilliant against Miami before getting injured. Brissett played a clean, mistake free game against Houston while the defense pitched a shutout.

I’m not however sold on Kessler and Siemian. Kessler managed not to make any critical mistakes against Miami but looked panicked at times and got away with a handful of questionable throws. This of course was be expected as Kessler began the season as the third option on the worst team in the league. And while the Browns in theory have value being the lowest power rated squad in the NFL, he has the least upside of the group. Siemian has shown the ability to throw the deep ball with a pair of 40+ yard touchdown strikes to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in last week’s win at Cincinnati. That said, he’s prone to throwing the ball into traffic too often (3 INTs) and has missed on some of the easier short to intermediate throws. His accuracy on shorter passes must improve as well as his decision making. Unlike Kessler, Siemian does have the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s top stop units.

The NFL is notoriously unkind to first-year quarterbacks but thus far, the results have bucked that trend. It’s a matchup league and I think a majority of our group’s success has come due to favorable opponents as well as taking care of the football. Moving forward, struggles are bound occur, but we have proof that betting on first-year and/or rookie quarterbacks is no longer something gamblers should completely avoid.

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos Ian Cameron




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ian Cameron Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
Was 142, $89
Big weekend in the NFL and the Sportsmemo Crew is coming in strong with selections on the side and total for both the AFC and NFC championships. Get 20*s from OTTO Sports and Ian Cameron, a 15* from Rob Veno, and a 10* from Teddy Covers for only $89. That's a savings of over $50! Each play is individually guaranteed to cash or you'll get that handicapper's next football selection for free.

$39
OTTO Sports has been in great form having hit 70% in all sport dating back to November. For Sunday, he checks in with a BIG 20* total on one of the NFL Conference Championship games. Lock in OTTO's 20* for $39. It's guaranteed to win or his next football selection is free of charge.

$39
Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit and he is rolling with a strong 38-30 56% record for +13.9 units of profit this season in the NFL. Ian has notched a tremendous 13-5 72% record with his NFL 20* plays this season fresh off an EASY 20* NFL playoff winner last weekend. He is ready to deliver his strongest playoff side of the season on Conference Championship Sunday with his 20* NFL Playoff Game Of The Year. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

$29
ER's been absolutely dominant in the NFL with 63% winners and over +17 units of profit. Coupled with last year's results, he's pumped out nearly +32 units of profit on 62% winners. It's Conference Championship weekend and Erin has isolated one 10* selection. Don't miss out on another winner; only $29 and guaranteed to cash or his next top rated football play is free.

$29
The Packers are the hottest team in football and the Falcons have the best offense in the NFL. Only one of the two can cover the spread on Sunday. Teddy's got you covered for this NFC Championship Showdown, putting his long term 89-67 NFL mark on the line. What are the subtle, hidden edges for this game? Read Teddy's detailed write-up to find out! This play must win or his next report is FREE.

$35
Rob Veno is having a tremendous NFL season going 57-35 62% racking up +22.5 units! Rob is also among the elite when it comes to his Top Tier releases and his 15* Best Bet & 20* Bluechip Totals in NFL action are hitting 68.4% this season. Rob has released a 15* NFL Conference Championship Best Bet and you can join him on this play for only $35. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next 15* NFL report free of charge.

$29
The Patriots have been the single best pointspread team in the NFL this year, but the Steelers have won nine straight, losing only once ATS during that span. This AFC Championship Game Showdown has more than one subtle, under-the-radar edge offering a legitimate positive expectation wager for savvy bettors. Get it now! This play must win or his next report is FREE.

$29
The NFL's Final Four face-off on Sunday to see who gets to travel down to Houston for Super Sunday on February 5th! Alex B. Smith is locked & loaded with his 10* Top Play on the NFC Championship showdown between Green Bay & Atlanta, and you can grab his release on this contest, complete with written analysis, for only $29. If this Championship selection fails to cash in, you will receive Alex B.'s next Top Play at no extra charge.

$29
Drew Martin is in with a 10* NFL Total of the Week for Championship Sunday! Drew is very selective in the NFL and has just one play on the total in one of the Conference Championship games. If you like Over tickets this is perfect for you! Jump on board for only $29 guaranteed to cash or Drew's next top play is on the house.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post SubjectTime    Last Poster
Betting Podcasts?16:18    AndrewL
Trump futures14:42    billydd66
NBA Podcast13:01    card51short
Rockets-Warriors Total09:09    AndrewL
NHL 2016/1706:42    ajwat297
NFL Total of 60+06:07    Drew Martin

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jan 21, 2017 02:44 AM.