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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 10

11.16.2011     09:18 AM         Printer Friendly

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We went 4-2 on our Week 10 Sunday selections and cashed our fourth straight 20* Big Drive winner. Always appreciate the positive feedback regarding our game analysis, and we chipped in additional thoughts and insight on selected games last Sunday right here in the Sportsmemo Blog. The goal is to always provide more winners in beating the bookmaker, and fortunately for over eight years, very few professional handicappers have won at a greater rate. I enjoy providing information, insight and game analysis along the way to better assist others while also educating and sharing thoughts on the NFL and how we arrive at some of our conclusions.

The top Week 10 offensive performances in victory included the Raiders (489 yards, 7.8 yards per play), Falcons (481, 5.7), Cowboys (433, 7.1), Texans (420, 7.0), Patriots (389, 5.8), Titans (383, 6.1) and Saints (363, 6.2). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the Colts (212, 3.7), Chiefs (238, 4.2), Bucs (231, 4.1), Redskins (246, 4.7), Bills Vikings (266, 4.5) and Bills (271, 5.5).  Note that the Redskins injuries, offensive line issues and quarterback rotation with sub-par play have been factors in a running game that has rushed for just 61, 52, 26, 92 and 42 yards the past five games. 

Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent cover the pointspread 72% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 31-5 SU and 28-7 ATS (80%). Being able to handicap and project which teams will have a meaningful rushing advantage (say, 30 or more yards) will lead to more pointspread winners, as teams with that rushing game advantage cover approximately 75% of the time historically, and 73% of the time thus far this season (I have a data base for over 10 years to prove it). 
   
The Eagles were Week 10’s only loser with a dominate running game that went for 166 yards at 6.9 ypr while holding the Cardinals to just 88 yards rushing. But the Cardinals escaped for the second week in a row, and this time as a big two touchdown underdog. Philadelphia quarterback Mike Vick was awful again with poor passing and decisions, and the City of Brotherly Love is hardly enjoying Philly’s poor play and record (3-6) after being the media darling and ‘chic pick’ to win the NFC in early season media projections (certainly not a favorite of mine).

My experience and unprecedented past success is in large part based on my ability to project which teams will have more success controlling the ball, line of scrimmage and running the football. Invariably, I’m always asked (or told) that the NFL game has evolved into a greater passing game; and after some of the strong offensive showings and passing attacks in the early season, who could argue? After all, there have been ten individual 400-yard passing performances in 2011; tied for the fourth most of any season in NFL history (13 in 1986 and 2004, and 11 in 2010). However, there has been no 400-yard passing games since Week 5 when both Eli Manning and Matt Schaub passed for over 400 yards. Note that Schaub is now out for the season following a foot injury last week, and his loss is a big blow to the Texans – he was having a Pro Bowl season while leading the Texans to a likely division title and more. Projecting good and bad quarterback play is also part of my evaluation and handicap of a match-up. However, it has been and will continue to be this professional handicapper’s opinion that rushing yards are more meaningful stats overall than passing yards (when projecting ATS results), which can be accumulated against soft coverage or prevent defenses when a team is behind by margin or playing catch-up.

I also keep track of yards-per-play (ypp) and yards-per-point stats to help me determine a team’s offensive efficiency and how they will fair against an opposing defense. Those stats are an effective measure of a team’s ability to move the football and score; whether on the ground or through the air.

Week 11 features a Thursday night game with the NY Jets visiting Denver. The Broncos are averaging 228 rushing ypg the past four games with Tim Tebow as starting quarterback. Five division games highlight the Week 11 card with the Cincinnati at Baltimore winner to move into a tie for first place with Pittsburgh in the AFC North.    

Fairway Jay is a premier, proven performer and recognized leader as one of the nation’s elite NFL handicappers. For 8-straight seasons, Fairway Jay has provided consistent winning and profits with unprecedented results. In 2011, Fairway Jay’s top-rated ‘Big Drive’ plays are on a 9-3 run including 4-0 on top double-unit 20* plays and hitting 65% this season on top plays overall in NFL. His 2010 season was a record-breaking performance as he went 55-30 ATS (65%) with over 30-units of profit (1 and 2 unit scale). Fairway Jay also won the 2010 Wise Guys invitation only football contest along with top honors on his best bet selections; going 14-3-1. If you’re looking to build your bankroll and work with a proven performer and pro, join Fairway Jay and profit from his experience. For winning results and useful information you can bet on, click here and sign up for one of the nation’s top football services.

Tags: NFL __




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